Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The DTW timing model is based on a similarity approach, analyzing the similarity between current index trends and historical trends. It selects historical segments with high similarity as references and calculates the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of these segments to generate trading signals [20][22]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) distance algorithm instead of Euclidean distance to measure similarity, as DTW is better suited for time series problems by addressing sequence misalignment issues [22]. 2. Calculate the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of selected historical segments, where weights are the inverse of the DTW distance [20]. 3. Generate trading signals based on the average future returns and standard deviations [20]. 4. To address the "pathological matching" issue in traditional DTW algorithms, improved DTW algorithms with boundary constraints (e.g., Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura Parallelogram) are applied [24][26][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The DTW timing model demonstrates stable excess returns in general market conditions but may underperform during periods of sudden macroeconomic policy changes [9]. 2. Model Name: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages information embedded in the price movements of two offshore assets related to A-shares: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and the Southbound A50 ETF (Hong Kong market) [30]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct two indicators using FTSE China A50 Index Futures: basis and price divergence [30]. 2. Construct a price divergence indicator using the Southbound A50 ETF [30]. 3. Combine the timing signals from the two assets to form the foreign capital timing signal [30]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieves strong performance, with annualized returns of 18.96% (long-short strategy) and 14.19% (long-only strategy) over the full sample period (2014-2024). It also exhibits a high win rate (close to 55%) and a profit-loss ratio exceeding 2.5 [13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. DTW Timing Model - **Absolute Return**: 35.52% since November 2022 [9] - **Excess Return (relative to CSI 300)**: 8.60% [9] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.32% [9] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Annualized Return (Long-Short Strategy)**: 18.96% (2014-2024) [13] - **Annualized Return (Long-Only Strategy)**: 14.19% (2014-2024) [13] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 25.69% (Long-Short), 17.27% (Long-Only) [13] - **Win Rate**: Close to 55% [13] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: Exceeds 2.5 [13] - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 31.33% (Long-Only Strategy) [17] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 8.23% [17] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: DTW Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: DTW distance is used as a similarity measure for time series, addressing sequence misalignment issues that arise with traditional Euclidean distance [22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute the DTW distance between the current index trend and historical trends [22]. 2. Use the inverse of the DTW distance as weights to calculate the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of historical segments [20]. 3. Generate trading signals based on these weighted averages [20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: DTW distance is more effective for time series problems compared to Euclidean distance, as it resolves sequence misalignment and improves model performance [22]. 2. Factor Name: Basis and Price Divergence (Foreign Capital Timing Model) - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors are derived from offshore assets to capture information about A-share market trends [30]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the basis and price divergence indicators using FTSE China A50 Index Futures [30]. 2. Calculate the price divergence indicator using the Southbound A50 ETF [30]. 3. Combine these indicators to form the foreign capital timing signal [30]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture offshore market signals and contribute to the strong performance of the foreign capital timing model [13]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. DTW Distance - **Absolute Return**: 35.52% since November 2022 [9] - **Excess Return (relative to CSI 300)**: 8.60% [9] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.32% [9] 2. Basis and Price Divergence - **Annualized Return (Long-Short Strategy)**: 18.96% (2014-2024) [13] - **Annualized Return (Long-Only Strategy)**: 14.19% (2014-2024) [13] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 25.69% (Long-Short), 17.27% (Long-Only) [13] - **Win Rate**: Close to 55% [13] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: Exceeds 2.5 [13] - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 31.33% (Long-Only Strategy) [17] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 8.23% [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5][28]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 2.7% from January 4 to January 10, 2026, with all secondary segments within the automotive sector also showing positive growth [1][2][9]. - Key developments include GAC Group signing a comprehensive cooperation framework with Huawei, and Geely obtaining an L3 level autonomous driving road test license, indicating advancements in smart driving technologies [1][23]. - The market is witnessing a promotional battle led by luxury brands like Tesla and BMW, with various automakers offering significant discounts and financing options to stimulate sales [20][21]. Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 5.1%, and the ChiNext Index saw a 3.9% rise during the same period [2][9]. - Within the automotive sector, the automotive services segment led with a weekly increase of 6.0%, while the passenger vehicle segment had the lowest increase at 0.3% [2][9]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include JunDa Co., which increased by 29.4%, JinGu Co. by 26.3%, and KaiZhong Co. by 23.3% [3][13]. - Among covered stocks, DaoShi Technology saw a rise of 29.5%, XuSheng Group by 18.0%, and XinQuan Co. by 16.2% [3][15]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Key new vehicle launches include the Xiaopeng P7+ with advanced driving capabilities and the Wuling Xingguang 560, which offers multiple powertrain options [18][19]. Industry News and Policies - The Ministry of Commerce projects over 11.5 million vehicles to be replaced under the old-for-new policy by 2025, with significant sales expected in related sectors [20]. - GAC Group and Huawei's collaboration aims to enhance smart vehicle technologies, while Chery Group targets a sales goal of 3.2 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 14.03% increase from 2025 [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

- The growth-value rotation model suggests overweighting growth stocks this week, while the small-cap large-cap rotation model suggests overweighting small-cap stocks, leading to a comprehensive recommendation of small-cap growth style[3] - The short-term market timing signal has turned optimistic this week, with a positive outlook on the macro fundamentals, cautious on valuations, neutral on sentiment, and optimistic on liquidity[15][16] - The growth-value rotation model is based on the quantitative economic mid-cycle analysis framework, where a steep profit cycle slope, low comprehensive interest rate cycle level, and rising credit cycle favor growth style, while the opposite favors value style[27] - The small-cap large-cap rotation model is constructed from 11 effective rotation indicators, with the latest results maintaining a bullish stance on small-cap style due to the dispersion of market trading themes and improved small-cap price-volume trends[31] - The short-term market timing strategy has an annualized return of 16.64% since the end of 2012, with an annualized excess return of 11.60% and a maximum drawdown of only 15.05%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[17][18] - The growth-value rotation strategy has an annualized return of 13.21% since the end of 2012, with an annualized excess return of 4.90%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[28][30] - The small-cap large-cap rotation strategy has generated positive annual excess returns every year since 2014, with an annualized excess return of 1.93% in 2026 so far[32][33] Model Backtest Results - Short-term market timing strategy: Annualized return 16.64%, annualized volatility 14.80%, maximum drawdown 15.05%, Sharpe ratio 0.9793, return-drawdown ratio 1.1058, monthly win rate 66.46%, quarterly win rate 61.11%, annual win rate 80.00%[22] - Growth-value rotation strategy: Annualized return 13.21%, annualized volatility 20.77%, maximum drawdown 43.07%, Sharpe ratio 0.6058, return-drawdown ratio 0.3067, monthly win rate 58.60%, quarterly win rate 60.38%[30] - Small-cap large-cap rotation strategy: Annualized return 20.51%, annualized excess return 12.89%, maximum drawdown 40.70%, average turnover interval 20 trading days, win rate (by trade) 50.11%[33]

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks in the Western Hemisphere - The Trump administration is focused on strengthening control over the Western Hemisphere, particularly regarding Venezuela and Greenland[4] - The U.S. plans to manage 30-50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, indicating a significant resource interest[9] - The geopolitical tension in Venezuela is expected to ease as the U.S. expresses satisfaction with the interim government, reducing the likelihood of further military action[10] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% due to geopolitical conflicts and expectations of oversupply[10] - Venezuela's oil, being heavy crude, is crucial for U.S. refining industries, aligning with Trump's agenda to revitalize domestic energy production[13] Group 3: U.S. Domestic Politics and Trade Policies - The Trump administration's actions in Venezuela are politically motivated, aiming to resonate with domestic voters on issues of drugs and immigration[13] - The U.S. Supreme Court's delay in ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs may provide the administration with more leeway in trade negotiations[5] Group 4: Broader Geopolitical Context - The U.S. seeks to counter external influences in Latin America, particularly from China and Russia, which have been increasing their presence in the region[13] - The potential for rightward political shifts in Latin America could align these countries more closely with U.S. strategic interests, impacting investment and trade dynamics[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see high levels of related transactions, with a forecasted related procurement amount of 21.637 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of 3.78% compared to the previous year, but still indicating sustained high demand [8]. - Anticipation for the official debut of the H-20 model in 2026 may provide new growth opportunities for the company [8]. - Revenue and profit are projected to grow steadily, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.141 billion, 1.302 billion, and 1.488 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 73, 64, and 56 [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to increase from 40.301 billion in 2023 to 59.188 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 7%, 5%, 13%, and 15% respectively [3][16]. - Operating profit is expected to rise from 1.023 billion in 2023 to 1.727 billion in 2027, with significant growth rates of 75%, 16%, 12%, 14%, and 14% [3][16]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 861 million in 2023 to 1.488 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 65%, 19%, 11%, 14%, and 14% [3][16]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.31 in 2023 to 0.54 in 2027 [3][16]. - The report indicates a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 96.8 for 2023, decreasing to 56.0 by 2027 [3][16].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 10 日 1 月降息预期打消 —2025 年 12 月美国就业数据分析 频率：每月 事件：2026 年 1 月 9 日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布：2025 年 12 月非农 就业人数新增 5 万人，前值 6.4 万人；失业率录得 4.4%，前值 4.6%。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《PPI 超预期回升——2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评》2026- 01-09 2、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 3、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 宏观点评报告 图 1：时薪增速环比偏强（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 ...

CPI Analysis - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest growth since March 2023[2] - Food prices contributed significantly to CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - PPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and cement manufacturing saw price increases of 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively[2] Market Outlook - January CPI is expected to drop to around 0.4% year-on-year due to a high base effect from the previous year[2] - January PPI is projected to rise to approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year estimate of -1.2%[2] - The impact of low oil prices continues to weigh on PPI improvements, while rising prices in non-ferrous metals support certain sectors[2] Risks - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, posing risks to economic recovery[2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading innovative medical device platform focused on providing comprehensive vascular intervention solutions, having launched the first knee and below DCB products in China, establishing a leading position in the peripheral intervention field [1][12]. - A new three-year cooperation agreement with Boston Scientific was signed in December 2025, which includes global commercialization, manufacturing services, and R&D collaboration [2][15]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 120 million, 220 million, and 320 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 137.7%, 73.3%, and 49.7% [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 474 million yuan in 2023 to 1.238 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7% [3][21]. - The company’s net profit is expected to increase from 15 million yuan in 2023 to 322 million yuan in 2027, with significant year-on-year growth [3][21]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 266.5 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3][4]. Product and Market Position - The company has established a multi-technology platform since 2011, with over 30 products approved by 2025, covering vascular surgery, cardiology, nephrology, and neurology [8][12]. - The product lineup includes mature products like DCB and PTA balloons, which are the main revenue sources, and growing products like peripheral suction systems and RF ablation systems, which are expected to drive future growth [8][28]. - The company has a strong market position in the peripheral DCB sector, being the first to market with its products and holding a leading market share [28][42]. Collaboration and Growth Strategy - The partnership with Boston Scientific is expected to enhance the company's global reach and product development capabilities, leveraging Boston Scientific's extensive distribution network [2][15]. - The agreement includes provisions for shared resources in product commercialization and R&D, which will likely accelerate the company's growth trajectory in international markets [15][17]. Revenue Growth and Performance - The company has shown a consistent increase in revenue, with a notable rise from 125 million yuan in 2019 to an expected 534 million yuan in 2024, driven by the successful launch of new products [21][23]. - The revenue from the company's venous intervention products has significantly increased, contributing to a growing share of total revenue [23][31]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for future growth with a robust pipeline of products in various stages of development, including innovative DCB products and other vascular intervention solutions [28][31]. - The expected increase in the number of patients requiring vascular interventions in China provides a favorable market environment for the company's continued expansion [34][40].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone for the first time since March 2025 [13][15] - The non-manufacturing PMI also improved to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a recovery in business activities [13][15] - The overall economic environment is supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, which has led to improvements in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [21][22] Industry Overview Manufacturing Sector - The production index increased to 51.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points, driven by pre-holiday stocking demand [15][21] - New orders index rose to 50.8%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase, supported by resilient export growth and rising upstream raw material prices [15][21] - The purchasing price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating high historical levels due to rising prices of metals and new energy materials [15][21] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 6.72% to 7650.93 points, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index increased by 11.28% to 1003.55 points [24] - DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM prices increased, with 8GB DDR4 DRAM rising by 5.64% to $25.09 and 16GB DDR5 DRAM up by 8.72% to $31.07 [26] - North American PCB shipments and order volumes showed a three-month rolling year-on-year increase, with shipments up by 25.83% [28] Consumer Demand - Prices for pork and chicken have risen, while the average wholesale price for live pigs has also increased [17][23] - The ten-day average box office revenue has increased by 36.95%, although movie ticket prices have decreased by 6.46% [17][23] Resource Sector - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, nickel, and aluminum prices increasing, while coal prices have shown mixed trends [23] - The national cement price index has decreased, although some regional prices have remained stable [23] Financial and Real Estate - The land transaction premium rate has decreased, and the area of commercial housing transactions has also declined [23] - The A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume have increased, indicating a more active market [23]