证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 16 日 天坛生物（600161.SH） 采浆稳健增长，新产能有望逐步释放 消费品/生物医药 当前股价：19.07 元 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年实现收入 60.32 亿元、归母 净利润 15.49 亿元、扣非归母净利润 15.19 亿元，同比分别增长 16.44%、 39.58%、37.52%。其中 2024Q4 实现收入 19.59 亿元、归母净利润 4.97 亿元， 同比分别增长 69.06%、123.58%。2025 年一季度实现收入 13.18 亿元、归母 净利润 2.44 亿元，同比分别增长 7.84%、下降 22.90%。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 5180 | 6032 | 7238 | 7962 | 8758 | | 同比增长 | 22% | 16% | 20% | 10% | 10% | | 营业利润(百万元) ...

2、代工业务收入占比高增，中国大陆地区收入占比持平。 1）按系统拆分：①25Q1 存储收入占比 43%/环比-7pcts，其中 NVM 收入占比 20%/环比-4pcts，非中国大陆 NAND 增长符合预期，主要系 NAND 客户向 256 层升级；DRAM 占比 23%/环比-3pcts，DRAM 支出集中在 1α、1β和 1γ节点 技术升级，支持 D5、LPD5 和 HBM；②代工收入占比 48%/环比+13pcts，GAA 和先进封装出货强劲，同时受益于中国大陆成熟制程支出；③逻辑和其他收入 占比 9%/环比-6pcts，系客户前沿节点支出减少；2）按地区拆分：25Q1 中国 大陆收入 14.7 亿美元，同比-9%/环比+9%，占比 31%/环比持平；韩国收入 11.5 亿美元，同比+25%/环比+6%，占比 24%/环比-1pct；中国台湾地区收入 11.3 亿美元，创历史新高，同比+236%/环比+53%，占比 24%/环比+7pcts。 3、指引 25Q2 代工和 NAND 收入增长，客户尚未因关税提前拉货。 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 16 日 中国大陆收入占比持平， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q4 results exceeded expectations with revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1] - The report highlights the significant growth in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) at 71.1 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and a notable increase in cloud revenue at 30.1 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued improvement in e-commerce monetization rates and the long-term growth prospects of AI and cloud services [1][5] Financial Data Summary - FY2025 revenue is projected to reach 996.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6% [2] - Adjusted EBITA for FY2025 is expected to be 173.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 157.9 billion yuan, with a 0% growth rate compared to FY2024 [2] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 8.31 yuan for FY2025 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Alibaba is set at 153 HKD, with the current stock price at 122.1 HKD [3][5] - The report suggests a 12x PE for e-commerce and a 5x PS for cloud business, indicating strong valuation potential [5] Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 17.3%, a 6-month increase of 46.6%, and a 12-month increase of 59.3% [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 16 日 泡泡玛特 Labubu 三代搪胶毛绒全球发售，关注腾讯一季报 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业上涨了 2.79%，在所有行业中排名第 11 位，传媒板块 年初到现在上涨了 4.61%，排名所有板块第 5 名。近期，传媒板块走势相对 稳定，游戏出版营销影视都相对平稳，但在这个位置，我们继续坚定看好游 戏板块和 AI 应用板块，特别是 AGENT 板块，我们最近一直持续紧密跟踪国内 外 AI 应用，因为贸易争端带来的海外科技大跌，最先反弹甚至创新高的就是 像多邻国，PALANTIR，APP 这样的 AI 应用公司，他们创新高的核心推动力就 是 AI 帮助其收入业绩和产品快速提升。同样，国内的 AI 应用也在蓄势待发， 我们继续坚定看好受 AI 变革影响较大的游戏互联网巨头（中概互联的腾讯、 美图、第四范式、 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 益丰药房（603939.SH） 业绩韧性凸显，利润拐点可期 消费品/生物医药 公司发布 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报：2024 年实现了营业收入 240.62 亿元、 归母净利润 15.29 亿元、扣非归母净利润 14.97 亿元，同比分别增长 6.53%、 8.26%、9.96%。其中 2024 年 Q4 实现营业收入 68.43 亿元、归母净利润 4.18 亿元、扣非归母净利润 4.05 亿元，同比分别增长 2.14%、1.28%、2.49%。2025 年 Q1 实现营业收入 60.09 亿元、归母净利润 4.49 亿元、扣非归母净利润 4.38 亿元，同比分别增长 0.64%、10.51%、9.65%。 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3 7 -27 相对表现 -8 9 -35 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 益丰药房 沪深300 ❑ 行业环境+关店压力下业绩仍有韧性，提质增效下利润率有望改善，加大分红 力度提升股东回报。20 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 龙头轻装上阵，景气改善可期 乳制品 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 相关报告 1、《业绩磨底产业出清，第二阶段 具备配置价值—白酒行业 24 年年报 25 年一季报回顾》2025-05-12 2、《食品饮料行业周报（5.11）— 成长赛道仍具看点，关注股东大会催 化》2025-05-12 24 年行业需求承压，伊利蒙牛等龙头企业去库存梳理渠道，同时一次性计提商 誉减值，理清包袱轻装上阵。奶价下行板块毛利率有所提升，同时费用更加高 效投入，25Q1 企业盈利呈现改善态势。全年来看，行业供给侧上游牧场加速 去化，需求端政策预期增强，今年有望实现供需平衡的进一步改善，景气度提 升，板块龙头业绩改善确定性更强。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 143 | 2.8 | | 食品饮料 (%) | | 沪深300 | | 总市值（十亿元） 30 | 5149.7 | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 20 | 4901.8 | 6.2 | 行业指数 0 % 1m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.665 billion yuan, up 138% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of COFCO Packaging [1][6]. - The report indicates that the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance revenue and net profit, with a stable profit margin and potential for improved profitability in the two-piece can segment [1][7]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.24 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 56%, 4%, and 16% respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.67 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.791 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [6][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 16.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][11]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 28.37 billion yuan by 2025, with a total liability of 17.93 billion yuan, indicating a healthy balance sheet [9][10]. Business Segmentation - The metal packaging segment generated revenue of 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with a gross margin of 18.13% [6][7]. - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.49 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while overseas sales were 1.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year [6][7]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s inventory turnover days improved from 52 days in 2024 to 42 days in Q1 2025, indicating better inventory management [6][7]. - The cash flow from operating activities was negative in Q1 2025 at -0.4 billion yuan, primarily due to acquisition-related expenditures [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2][32] Core Insights - In April 2025, chicken prices for both yellow feather and white feather chickens showed signs of recovery, leading to significant improvements in the profitability of the farming sector. The holiday consumption supported this price increase, and leading companies optimized their sales structures to achieve better product premiums [1][8]. - The report highlights that the breeding costs for leading yellow chicken enterprises have decreased to low levels, and with the seasonal price recovery, there is potential for substantial profit release [1][8]. - The supply of chicken chicks is currently abundant, with a slight price increase observed. The average price of chicken chicks in April was 2.87 yuan per chick, down 13% year-on-year but up 2.1% month-on-month [9][10]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of white feather chicken in April was 7.42 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% but a month-on-month increase of 4.1%. The average price of chicken products was 8913 yuan per ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month [8][9]. - The profitability of the breeding sector is gradually improving, with leading companies like Shengnong Development achieving better sales prices compared to the industry average [8][10]. - The demand for quality parent stock chicken chicks is expected to remain strong in 2025, with supply tightening in the second half of the year due to decreased overseas imports [10][32]. Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow feather chickens in April was 4.84 yuan per jin, down 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, while the price for slow-growing chickens was 8.17 yuan per jin, down 1.4% year-on-year but up 16% month-on-month [21][24]. - The report indicates a divergence in price trends between fast and slow-growing chickens, suggesting improved household consumption driven by holiday demand [21][25]. - The breeding costs for yellow feather chickens have decreased significantly, with costs for leading companies like Wens and Lihua dropping to around 5.6 yuan and 5.5 yuan per jin, respectively [25][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector due to its favorable outlook, particularly for integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development [32]. - For yellow feather chickens, the report suggests that the current low levels of parent stock will support future price increases, with companies like Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture being highlighted as key investment opportunities [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic ophthalmic medical device industry, focusing on innovation, particularly in intraocular lenses and orthokeratology lenses. The business is expected to gradually recover from the impact of centralized procurement, with the launch of the dual-focus intraocular lens contributing to revenue growth [1][6]. - The company has received special approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its refractive intraocular lens, which is anticipated to facilitate domestic substitution and enhance performance [1][6]. - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.734 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year growth, and net profit expected to reach 465 million yuan, also reflecting a 20% increase [2][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 951 million yuan in 2023 to 2.56 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 48%, 23%, 22%, and 21% respectively [2][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 327 million yuan in 2023 to 750 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26%, 32%, 20%, 21%, and 19% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.57 yuan in 2023 to 3.49 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 49.5 to 22.3 over the same period [2][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 77.91 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 15 billion yuan [3]. - The company has experienced a decline in stock performance, with absolute performance down by 25% over the past month and six months, and down 11% over the past year [5]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Xie Jiangbing, holding a 12.68% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a recommendation for investment based on the favorable macroeconomic indicators and the expected performance of the sector relative to the market index [4][39]. Core Insights - The central bank has significantly increased its support for the capital market, with a record monthly increase of 370 billion yuan in April, the highest since 2007, indicating strong backing for market stability [1]. - Fiscal strength is robust, with the constructed "Fiscal Strength 2" indicator showing a value of 0.6 trillion yuan in April, a substantial increase from the previous year's negative value, reflecting a proactive fiscal stance [2]. - Credit and M1 growth are weak, with April's credit increase of 0.28 trillion yuan falling short of expectations, and M1 showing a net decrease of approximately 4.35 trillion yuan, suggesting ongoing challenges in the real economy [3]. - M2 and non-bank deposits have seen high growth, with M2 increasing by 1 percentage point and non-bank deposits contributing significantly to this rise, indicating a shift of deposits towards financial markets [3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The central bank's asset growth in "claims on other financial companies" reached 370 billion yuan in April, marking a significant increase and reflecting strong support for the capital market [1]. - The fiscal strength indicator for April was 0.6 trillion yuan, a notable increase from the previous year's -0.4 trillion yuan, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy [2]. Credit and Deposit Trends - April's credit growth was only 0.28 trillion yuan, with a decrease in both corporate and household loans, suggesting a potential overextension from the previous quarter [3]. - M1 growth was weak, with a net decrease of about 4.35 trillion yuan, indicating challenges in the circulation of the real economy [3]. - M2 growth rebounded, with a monthly increase of 2.72 trillion yuan, primarily driven by a 1.9 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits [3]. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall economic environment shows a dichotomy where the capital market is active while the real economy remains sluggish, suggesting a need for policy optimization, particularly in fiscal measures [4]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending directed towards consumption, particularly for families with children and low-income elderly, which could enhance overall economic activity [4]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [8].