Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal industry, emphasizing a strong buying opportunity for various metals including copper, aluminum, and rare earth elements [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to stronger downstream consumption in the metal sector, particularly in energy metals, which are showing robust demand [1]. - Supply disruptions are providing significant momentum to the sector, with a focus on metals such as copper, silver, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, uranium, and antimony [1]. - The report highlights the importance of technology-driven growth in new materials as a key area of investment [1]. Industry Overview - The metal industry consists of 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of CNY 619 billion, representing 5.8% of the overall market [2]. - The industry index performance shows a 1-month increase of 8.6%, a 6-month increase of 52.4%, and a 12-month increase of 51.7% [3]. Metal Price Trends - Copper inventory has increased to 203,300 tons, marking a 2.07 million ton rise from the previous week, indicating a continuous accumulation trend [3]. - Aluminum inventories are reported at 622,000 tons, with a slight increase, while the government has announced a suspension of tariffs on aluminum imports from the US, potentially boosting exports [4]. - Tungsten prices have risen by 6.75% due to supply constraints from environmental policies and reduced mining quotas [3][4]. Specific Metal Insights - For copper, the report suggests a long-term bullish outlook due to supply tightness and increasing demand from the electric construction sector [3]. - Aluminum is expected to maintain strong pricing in the short term, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Lithium and cobalt markets are experiencing tight supply conditions, with lithium prices showing resilience despite slight declines [4]. Rare Earth and New Materials - The report notes a positive outlook for rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, driven by demand recovery and inventory replenishment [4]. - Uranium prices have increased to USD 85 per pound, reflecting a steady rise in demand amid a recovering nuclear power sector [5]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the metal industry is optimistic, with various metals poised for growth due to strong demand and supply constraints, making it a favorable investment landscape [1][2][3].

Domestic Insights - In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, compared to a previous growth of 8.3%[22] - High-frequency data indicates a significant rebound in export orders from late October to early November, attributed to the implementation of trade agreements between China and the U.S.[19] - The Q4 export growth rate is expected to decline due to a high base from the previous year, alongside the "15th Five-Year Plan" aiming for stable growth policies in November and December[19] Overseas Insights - In October, the U.S. ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations with an increase of 42,000 jobs, while Challenger job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year to 153,074[20] - The liquidity crunch in the U.S. money market is primarily due to the government shutdown, which has forced the Treasury to increase cash balances from $300 billion to $1 trillion, creating a draining effect on the market[20] - The Supreme Court's rapid review of the legality of Trump's tariffs could lead to a ruling by the end of December, potentially accelerating the implementation of Section 232 tariffs[20] Asset Market Analysis - The recent high valuations in the U.S. AI sector have sparked global trader concerns, with historical bubbles linked to industry trends and monetary policy factors[21] - The potential for a market rebound is anticipated around May 2025, coinciding with a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may signal stronger easing measures[21] - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks may not be complete, while domestic asset styles are trending towards balance[21]

Election Results - The Democratic Party achieved significant victories in local elections, including New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, which are traditionally Democratic strongholds[4] - The election results may not indicate a nationwide trend due to the polarized political climate in the U.S., with Trump's policies potentially increasing Democratic voter turnout[12] Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court began hearings on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policies, with conservative justices expressing skepticism about the president's authority to impose large-scale tariffs[13] - The court's decision could take weeks to months, providing the Trump administration time to refine its tariff policies[14] Economic Implications - The ongoing government shutdown, which has reached a historic duration, is contributing to market instability and a lack of official economic data, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices[12] - Economic issues are expected to become central in the upcoming midterm elections, aligning with the administration's need to stabilize the economy before the elections[11] Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in the Middle East, are expected to persist, with potential impacts on U.S. foreign policy and trade[16][17] - The U.S. is focusing on strategic industries in its tariff policies, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[15] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, attributed to the government shutdown and lack of market guidance[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index showed positive performance, with increases of 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, indicating regional market resilience[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.6% during the week from November 2 to November 8, 2025, with significant drops in the passenger and commercial vehicle segments, which fell by 3.4% and 3.0% respectively [2][11]. - Xpeng Motors showcased its advancements in "physical AI" at its technology day, introducing the second-generation VLA large model and the humanoid robot IRON, which is expected to be mass-produced by the end of 2026 [1][25][28]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable gains for Haima Automobile (+50.0%), Weichai Power (+22.1%), and ST Meichen (+17.2%), while Hengshuai Co. (-20.8%) and Biaobang Co. (-20.0%) faced significant declines [3][16]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments saw a comprehensive decline, with automotive parts and services experiencing smaller drops of -0.2% and -0.4% respectively, while tire and dealership segments showed positive growth of +1.9% and +1.8% [2][11]. - The overall market indices for the week showed mixed results, with the Shanghai A index rising by 1.1% and the Shenzhen A index by 0.4%, contrasting with the automotive sector's decline [9]. Recent Developments - Xpeng announced its entry into the Robotaxi market, planning to launch three self-developed Robotaxi models in 2026, which will utilize the second-generation VLA model and feature advanced AI capabilities [28]. - BYD plans to launch its high-end brand "Yangwang" in the Middle East in early 2026, marking its expansion into the luxury vehicle market [24]. - The report notes the successful IPOs of autonomous driving companies, including WeRide and Pony.ai, which reflect growing investor interest in the sector [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [3] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a recovery, with various segments showing potential for growth, particularly in shipping, infrastructure, aviation, and express delivery [7][19][22][20] Shipping - The shipping sector is seeing mixed price movements, with the SCFI for the US East route down 17.2% and the Southeast Asia route up 6.4% [11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the price increases in container shipping and the potential recovery in oil tanker rates due to improved US-China trade relations [16][12] Infrastructure - Key metrics indicate a decline in truck traffic and railway cargo, while port throughput has increased significantly, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The report emphasizes the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector, particularly in ports, which are currently undervalued [19] Aviation - The aviation sector shows a positive trend with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, driven by improved demand and a low base effect [22] - The report suggests that the industry is poised for profitability in 2026, with a focus on valuation recovery and potential investment opportunities in major airlines [22] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is benefiting from a reduction in price competition, with a notable increase in business volume and revenue [20] - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" policies are helping to stabilize prices and improve profitability in the sector [20] Logistics - The logistics segment is experiencing stable performance, with cross-border air freight prices showing a week-on-week increase [23] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the daily traffic at key ports and the implications for logistics operations [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a stable outlook for textile manufacturing and a positive trend for gold and jewelry sectors [3]. Core Insights - Textile manufacturing is expected to gradually improve due to stable overseas demand and low inventory levels, despite short-term production efficiency issues and order delays from existing clients [7][11]. - Brand apparel is facing pressure due to weak domestic consumption, with only a few companies showing positive performance through strong product and channel strategies [7][38]. - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing high growth driven by low base effects, rising gold prices, and product structure upgrades, with leading brands showing significant revenue growth [7][49]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing - Overseas demand remains stable, with low inventory levels in the U.S. indicating a healthy supply chain [12]. - Major global brands like NIKE are seeing recovery after two years of channel optimization, with orders expected to improve as major sporting events approach in 2026 [11][18]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Yuyuan Group, and others with Southeast Asian production capabilities [34]. Brand Apparel - The performance of brand apparel companies is generally under pressure, with most reporting low single-digit revenue growth and declining profits [38]. - Notable exceptions include Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai, which reported significant revenue and profit increases due to product expansion and multi-channel strategies [38]. - Companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Li Ning are recommended for their positive brand momentum and strategic changes [48]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a 11.5% increase in retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and product upgrades [49]. - Leading brands such as Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long reported substantial revenue growth, with Chao Hong Ji's revenue increasing by nearly 50% in Q3 2025 [54]. - Investment recommendations focus on brands with strong market positioning and ongoing product and channel upgrades, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji [67].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for domestic interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture interest rate trend patterns, identifying support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides timing signals based on the shape of interest rate movements across different investment cycles [11][24][25] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Utilize 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data [11][24][25] 2. **Kernel Regression**: Apply kernel regression to identify support and resistance lines for interest rate trends [11][24][25] 3. **Cycle Analysis**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency 4. **Signal Generation**: - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of support lines and the trend is not upward, allocate fully to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs but the trend is upward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of resistance lines and the trend is not downward, allocate fully to short-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs but the trend is downward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to short-duration bonds - Otherwise, allocate equally across short, medium, and long durations [24][25][29] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates robust performance with high annualized returns and low drawdowns across different cycles [25][28][33] Model Backtesting Results - **5-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.21% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.74 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.87% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 100% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 100% [25][37] - **10-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.09% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.64% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.57 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.43% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 100% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 100% [28][37] - **30-Year YTM Model**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.37% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.73 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 3.28% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.59 - Long-term excess return: 2.41% - Short-term excess return: 2.68% - Historical win rate for annual absolute returns: 94.44% - Historical win rate for annual excess returns: 94.44% [33][37] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Interest rate structure indicators (level, term, convexity) **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform YTM data into structural indicators to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective [8] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Level Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Level} = \text{Average YTM across maturities} $ - Current reading: 1.61%, positioned at 21%, 12%, and 6% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] 2. **Term Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Term} = \text{Difference between long and short maturity YTM} $ - Current reading: 0.41%, positioned at 27%, 17%, and 18% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] 3. **Convexity Structure**: - Formula: $ \text{Convexity} = \text{Second derivative of YTM curve} $ - Current reading: -0.04%, positioned at 10%, 6%, and 5% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical views, respectively [8] **Factor Evaluation**: These indicators provide a comprehensive view of the interest rate market's structural dynamics, aiding in timing and allocation decisions [8] Factor Backtesting Results - **Level Structure**: Current reading: 1.61% [8] - **Term Structure**: Current reading: 0.41% [8] - **Convexity Structure**: Current reading: -0.04% [8]

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 11 月 8 日 港股红利收涨，资金主要流入港股 TMT ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（1103-1107） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（11 月 3 日-11 月 7 日）股票 ETF 涨跌分化。其中，港股红利 ETF 和港股主题类 ETF（主要是央国企主题）涨幅靠前，规模以上基金平均上 涨 3.62%、3.51%。相反，港股医药生物 ETF 和 A 股医药生物 ETF 跌幅靠 前，规模以上基金分别平均下跌 3.37%、3.17%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入港股 TMT ETF，全周资金净流入 90.65 亿元。相反，A 股大 盘 ETF 资金大幅净流出 122.64 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The Tesla 2025 shareholder meeting successfully approved Elon Musk's 2025 compensation plan with over 75% support, aligning with expectations [2] - The proposal for investment in XAI was not directly approved, but it is currently outside the market trading scope [2] - Business line descriptions remained consistent with previous earnings call statements, meeting expectations [2] - Key future milestones to watch include the progress of FSD V14, penetration rate improvements, and developments in robotaxi [2] Industry Overview - The automotive industry comprises 265 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 4,739.6 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 4,094.2 billion [3] - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months shows a decline of 3.5%, an increase of 30.5%, and an increase of 44.0%, respectively [5] - Relative performance indicates a decline of 4.6% over 1 month, an increase of 7.3% over 6 months, and an increase of 27.3% over 12 months [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $635 million for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, surpassing the guidance midpoint [1][28]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 13.5%, exceeding the upper limit of the guidance range, driven by increased capacity utilization and average selling price (ASP) improvements [1][29]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a year-on-year growth forecast of 21.5% [3][36]. - The semiconductor market is anticipated to continue growing into 2026, with expectations of improved pricing and market conditions compared to 2025 [3][47]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $635 million, a historical high, with a gross margin of 13.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [29]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $25.7 million, down 42.6% year-on-year but up 223.5% quarter-on-quarter [30]. - Operating expenses were $100.4 million, reflecting a 23.3% increase year-on-year due to rising wafer costs and depreciation [29]. Capacity and Production - The company’s 8-inch wafer capacity was 468,000 pieces per month, with a utilization rate of 109.5% [1][29]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase Fab 9A's capacity to approximately 65,000 pieces per month by mid-next year [3][46]. Market Demand and Product Segments - Embedded non-volatile memory platform revenue was $160 million, up 20.4% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for microcontrollers (MCUs) [2][32]. - Power discrete devices revenue was $169 million, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, primarily due to demand for super junction products [2][32]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix, particularly in NOR Flash and power management platforms, to improve overall profitability [40][48]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is progressing with an acquisition expected to add $600 million to $700 million in revenue, with the deal anticipated to close by August next year [3][53]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic capacity planning and technology advancements to strengthen its competitive position in the semiconductor industry [28][40].