期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

| 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 北港库存逐渐回升，港口煤价继 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 续走弱 | 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：12 月以来，国内动力煤价格加速下跌，截至 12 月 11 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤平仓 价 761 元/吨，12 月内已经累计下跌 57 元，本轮动力煤的下跌受多重利空共同驱动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads of different commodities [1][5][20][26][41][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The basis on December 17 was - 83.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous decline trend compared with previous days [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the basis of fuel oil on December 17 was - 19.33 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 17 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. On December 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2110 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on December 17 was 206.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was - 13.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are given. On December 17, the 螺/矿 ratio was 4.03 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 17 was - 660 yuan/ton [28] (2) London Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (15.30) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 on December 17 was - 70 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of various agricultural products are provided, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 39 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on December 17, 2025 are given. The ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.85 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. The basis of CSI 300 on December 17 was 1.68 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are shown. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 194 [52]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, putting pressure on the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a significant increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but with weak demand and high supply, the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing, and the profitability of steel mills has not improved, so the demand for ore remains weak, which pressures the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a large increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. Although domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall supply is still high. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. It will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2603 are oscillate, oscillate, and be weak respectively, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of short - term interest rate cuts is low, while medium - and long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. After continuous corrections, support for treasury bond futures began to emerge. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the internal and external uncertainty risk factors are weak, the market's risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is no need for further interest rate cuts within the year, so the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. This is mainly due to the rebound in coal prices [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is bullish. The reference view is a bullish run, and the core logic is that the rebound in coal prices makes methanol volatile and bullish [1] 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - The intraday view of methanol is bullish, and the medium - term view is volatile. After the previous positive factors were digested, methanol futures were hindered in their rebound due to increased domestic supply pressure and the drag of a sharp correction in domestic coal futures prices. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still high, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with weak olefin disk profits. Driven by the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and bullish trend on Wednesday night, and are expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [5]

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on December 18, 2025, covering gold and copper [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - line upward trend, while it will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, with a strong performance in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of gold was strong. New York gold once reached $4380, and Shanghai gold reached the 980 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Since last Friday, risk appetite has decreased significantly, as shown by the continuous decline of the U.S. stock market at a high level. This has increased the demand for hedging and pushed up the price of gold. Since the China - U.S. summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, and the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, attention can be paid to the high - level pressure at the end of October [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of copper rose first and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,800 mark, and Shanghai copper once touched 93,500 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: At the macro level, the short - term decline in market liquidity and risk appetite has put pressure on the copper price, but copper is relatively resistant to decline due to its financial attributes. At the industrial level, the spot is at a discount, and the 1 - 2 month spread is weakening, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, indicating that the domestic spot circulation is not tight [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, continuous attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: volatile and bullish; Long - term: bullish [1][4].

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场外盘承压、内盘震荡，核心矛盾在于全球供应宽松预期与国内成本支撑的博 弈。美豆期价在触及七周新低后小幅反弹，但整体情绪仍受制于供应压力。一方面，中国对美国大豆 的采购步伐不及市场预期；另一方面，南美新季大豆丰产前景明确，巴西即将开始收割，全球大豆供 应宽松格局未改，限制了美豆的反弹空间。国内市场则表现出"近强远弱"的分化特征。高企的库存 和疲软的需求压制了上行空间。短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 行情驱动逻辑 煤炭行业利好发酵提振市场情绪，钢材期价夜盘走强，但螺纹钢供需格局表现偏弱，供应持续 下降并降至低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求季节性走弱，高频指标延 续低位偏弱运行，且下游行业也未好转，弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，钢材期 价低位回 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 108620 元/吨，较前日 上涨 8020 元/吨（+7.97%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 97080 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.22%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 【基差分析】当前基差为-9920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4890 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】 ...