Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 19, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - Basis data from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows a continuous decline, from - 56.40 yuan/ton on December 12 to - 90.40 yuan/ton on December 18 [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Provides basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [7]. (2) Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows different trends for each commodity [9]. - Inter - month spread data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - commodity spread data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [10]. III. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows significant fluctuations [20]. - Inter - month spread data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [18]. - Inter - commodity spread data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [18]. IV. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows different trends [28]. (2) London Market - LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 18, 2025 [33]. V. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [39]. - Inter - month spread data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [39]. - Inter - commodity spread data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 12 to December 16, 2025 [39]. VI. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [50]. - Inter - month spread data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising. The intraday price center slightly shifted up to around 15,320 yuan/ton and closed with a slight increase of 0.29% at 15,320 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 15 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,187 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,152 yuan/ton, closing with a small increase of 1.40% at 2,174 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 42 yuan/ton. Driven by a slight rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a maximum of 432.5 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 425.1 yuan/barrel, closing with a small increase of 1.20% at 429.4 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, and short - term crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. Bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry declined. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, China's heavy - truck market had cumulative sales of more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil output was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the October average of 60,175 contracts. As of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,320 yuan/ton | - 70 yuan/ton | - 270 yuan/ton | +70 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,150 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | 2,174 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 24 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 392.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 429.4 yuan/barrel | +2.7 yuan/barrel | - 37.2 yuan/barrel | - 2.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][40][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar is running strongly with a daily increase of 1.40%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The price is still prone to pressure in the off - season, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil is rising in a fluctuating manner with a daily increase of 1.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated limitedly. The price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore is rising continuously with a daily increase of 1.63%, with increasing volume and positions. Currently, the market sentiment has warmed up and the positive factors remain. The ore price is running strongly at a high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The China Index Academy predicts that the total demand for urban housing in China in the next 5 years will be about 4.98 billion square meters. The annual sales area of newly - built commercial residential buildings is expected to be 700 million to 800 million square meters on average. In 2025, the new - house sales scale has dropped to the central level, and the current housing demand is dominated by "improvement" [7]. - According to AVC data, in January 2026, the domestic sales production scheduling of air - conditioners increased by 32% year - on - year. The growth is mainly due to the rhythm shift caused by the Spring Festival date difference, not a real rebound in terminal demand. The industry is still under the triple pressure of "high inventory, low price, and weak demand" [8]. - In November 2025, China exported 6 million tons of steel sheets, the same as the previous year; from January to November, the cumulative export was 66.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In November, China exported 1.71 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 29.1%; from January to November, the cumulative export was 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, as well as the prices of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase or Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,125 | 1.40 | 3,134 | 3,081 | 1,215,549 | 621,938 | 1,575,943 | - 28,786 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,277 | 1.05 | 3,294 | 3,241 | 586,127 | 299,244 | 1,189,556 | - 10,392 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 1.63 | 781.5 | 767.0 | 322,377 | 92,590 | 518,155 | 29,159 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [14][19][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons, and the demand decreased by 138,900 tons. The price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply and demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 56,000 tons. The demand is weak, but the continuous increase in the output of cold - rolled products provides some support. Under the game of long and short factors, the price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand pattern has little change. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply remains high. The price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [37].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 核心观点 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 今日铜价震荡偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，今日有色 板块维持震荡运行，铜表现相对偏弱。产业层面，现货贴水和近月 月差均维持弱势运行，产业现实端较弱。技术上，关注 9.2 万关口支 撑。 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝震荡偏弱 今日镍价减仓反弹明显。宏观层面，有色板块偏弱运行。产业层 面，现货升水持续走强，给予镍价支撑。短期镍空头了结意愿较强， 带动镍价反弹。预计镍价短期维持反弹态势，可关注 11.5 万关口压 力。 （仅供参考 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract LC2605.GFE of lithium carbonate futures closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2,460 yuan/ton (-2.26%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 97,570 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was -9,690 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 230 points stronger than the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 15,636 lots, unchanged from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The market's short - term resource shortage expectation remains [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2,460 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,280 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the main contract settlement price was 107,260 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 9,360 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate was priced at 1,310 - 1,380 US dollars/ton, with a price increase of 50 - 40 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 110 - 140 US dollars/ton from 5 trading days ago; Brazilian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,290 - 1,360 US dollars/ton, with similar price changes; Zimbabwe CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,280 - 1,340 US dollars/ton; Mali CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,030 - 1,090 US dollars/ton; South African CIF China lithium spodumene raw ore was 140 - 160 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average market prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents all increased compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5 - 2) was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day and 60 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of Chinese domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 97,570 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day and 4,030 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of Chinese domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 86,020 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 3,630 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolyte remained stable or had slight changes. For example, the price of ternary precursor (523) was 107,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [11]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts display the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [13][16]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate futures [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 18, the coke futures market sentiment turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - On December 18, the coking coal futures market sentiment also turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34]. Summary of Each Section Industry News - China has re - implemented export license management for steel products after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistics, and analysis of steel product exports and promote high - quality development of the steel industry [7]. - On December 18, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market mainly declined. The cumulative listed volume was 461,000 tons, with a non - successful bid rate of about 28.4% and an average decline of about 21 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | Flat | - 5.99% | - 7.10% | - 9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | - 0.69% | - 1.38% | - 11.73% | - 12.80% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,125 yuan/ton | - 3.02% | - 12.11% | - 4.66% | - 8.54% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 1.37% | - 5.73% | - 0.67% | - 3.90% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | Flat | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,603.5 yuan/ton | 5.39% | 1,618 yuan/ton | 1,532 yuan/ton | 21,000 | 5,447 | 12,791 | - 3,916 | | Coking Coal | | 1,126.5 points | 6.07% | 1,136.5 points | 1,057.5 points | 1,700,451 | 752,463 | 501,331 | 4,320 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, as well as production and operation data of steel mills, coking plants, and coal washing plants, including 230 independent coking plant coke inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant coke inventories, port coke total inventories, etc. [15][16][19] Market Outlook - Coke: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - Coking coal: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is mainly range - bound, with the short - term for IH2603 being in a range - bound state, the medium - term being in a range - bound state, and the intraday being on the stronger side. The overall short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is also range - bound, with the intraday being on the stronger side and the medium - term being in a range - bound state [1][5]. - The core logic is that policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting. The stock market had a callback and was close to the lower limit of the range, which was attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing strong support for the stock index. However, due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound | Policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is in a range - bound state, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index had an intraday rebound after an early - morning consolidation. The total stock market turnover was 181.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.59 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market's previous callback made it attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing support for the stock index. Due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, policy intensification is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year, and currently, the stock index is still in a range - bound state, but market risk appetite will gradually recover as policy - driven positive expectations ferment [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈加剧，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 冬储补库预期支撑，焦炭期货低 位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in November 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 24885.00 billion yuan and the same period last year at 23288.00 billion yuan [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November 2025 were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900.00 billion yuan, up from 2200.00 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in November 2025 increased 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased 2.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in November 2025 was - 2.6%, down from - 1.7% in the previous month and 3.3% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 was 4.0%, down from 4.3% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in November 2025 increased 5.9% and 1.9% year - on - year respectively, showing an improvement compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue was 200516 billion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; tax revenue was 164814 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; stamp duty was 4044 billion yuan, up 27% year - on - year, with securities trading stamp duty at 1855 billion yuan, up 70.7% year - on - year. General public budget expenditure was 248538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year [2] - In 2026, the market generally expects a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in interest rates, with structural tools focusing on key areas [2] - On December 17, 2025, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and casting aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber,沪锡, and international copper had the smallest [3] 2.2 Metals - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract closed at 108600 yuan/ton, up 7.61% for the day, driven by improved supply - demand fundamentals and positive capital entry [4] - The platinum futures main contract on the GZEX hit the daily limit, rising 7%, with a nearly 19% increase in the past 4 trading days, driven by multiple factors [5] - On December 17, 2025, the spot silver price broke through 65 and 66 US dollars/ounce, with a year - to - date increase of about 130%, driven by supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows [5] - On December 17, 2025, the tungsten powder price reached 1000000 yuan/ton, up 216.5% from the beginning of the year [5] - As of December 16, 2025, tin, zinc, copper, and aluminum inventories increased, while lead inventory decreased, and some metal inventories remained at low levels [6] - As of December 2, 2025, COMEX gold and copper futures speculators increased their net long positions [7] - As of December 17, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.08% [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The NDRC and other departments released the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" [9] - Westpac warns that iron ore prices will plunge 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply [9] - The IEA's "2025 Coal Report" shows that global coal demand in 2025 increased 0.5% to a record 88.5 billion tons but is expected to decline slowly [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The European Parliament approved the EU's plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 127.4 million barrels last week, and other inventory data also changed [10] - Dallas Fed survey shows that enterprises expect the WTI crude oil price to reach 62 US dollars/barrel by the end of 2026 [10] - Israel approved a 112 - billion - shekel natural gas agreement with Egypt [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Indian market regulatory body may relax commodity derivatives rules for agricultural products [11] - Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in December 2025 are expected to increase [11] - China will impose anti - dumping duties of 4.9% - 19.8% on EU pork and by - products [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 468 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released, along with expectations for 2026 monetary policy [14] - In November 2025, 30 key cities' second - hand housing transactions increased 14% month - on - month, and real estate bond financing increased 28.5% year - on - year [16] - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high, and the Fed has room for rate cuts [18] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market continued to recover, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining, and some corporate bonds and convertible bonds rising [20] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also changed [21][23][24] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0460, and the US dollar index rose 0.18% [25] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the wealth management scale to reach over 35 trillion yuan in 2026, with "fixed income +" products as a key growth point [27] - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzes the potential solutions for local government financing platform's operating debt risks [27] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 18, 2025, 232 bonds will be listed, 119 will be issued, 92 will make payments, and 162 will pay principal and interest [28] 4. Stock Market Key News - On December 17, 2025, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19%, and sectors such as energy metals and computing power hardware performing well [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.92%, with lithium stocks and some sectors rising, and southbound funds having a net purchase of 7.9 billion Hong Kong dollars [30]

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend (within one week) is volatile, the medium - term trend (two weeks to one month) is volatile, and the intraday trend is strong [1]. Price and Market Conditions - Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of its main crude oil varieties to Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market. The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread also shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela has increased the geopolitical risk premium [1][5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong pattern [5].