Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Junshi Bioscience (688180) with a target price of 48.10 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 30.45 RMB [1][7]. Core Insights - Junshi Bioscience's revenue from Tuoyi has shown a significant year-on-year growth of 46%. The company is focusing on early data for DKK1 in gastrointestinal tumors [1][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 500 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.46%. The core product, Toripalimab, achieved sales of 447 million RMB in the domestic market, up 45.72% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company has 30 billion RMB in cash on hand and has implemented a "quality improvement and efficiency return" action plan to enhance sales efficiency and focus resources on more promising R&D projects [4][5]. Financial Performance - The sales expenses for Q1 2025 were 226 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.79%, accounting for 45% of total revenue, which is a decrease of 5 percentage points compared to Q1 2024. R&D expenses were 351 million RMB, up 26.89% year-on-year, while management expenses decreased by 21.32% to 97 million RMB [4]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 235 million RMB, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 239 million RMB, narrowing the loss by 48 million and 68 million RMB year-on-year [4]. Product Pipeline and International Expansion - Tuoyi has received approval for 12 indications in China, with 10 included in the national medical insurance catalog, four of which are exclusive indications [5]. - The company has made progress in international expansion, with Toripalimab approved in multiple countries including the USA, EU, India, UK, and Australia, and has established commercial partnerships in over 80 countries [5]. - Two early-stage pipelines, JS212 and JS213, have received clinical trial approvals, and VV116 has transitioned from conditional approval to regular approval for treating COVID-19 [5][6]. Future Projections - The report projects revenue growth for Junshi Bioscience, estimating revenues of 2.595 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 33.17% [10]. - The company is expected to narrow its net loss to 674 million RMB in 2025, with a projected diluted earnings per share of -0.68 RMB [10].

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 伯特利(603596) 目标价: 昨收盘:59.40 智驾平权时代：做强 X 向，做大 Y+Z 向 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (10%) 10% 30% 50% 70% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 6.07/6.06 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 360.27/360.14 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 67.4/31.75 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<打造一体式底盘域控系统：做强 X 向，做大 Y+Z 向>>--2024-09-03 <<伯特利 2023 年报点评：智能电控 龙头，产能扩张驱动高速成长>>-- 2024-03-31 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 事件：公司发布 2024 年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年营业收入 99.37 亿元， 同比+32.95%；归母 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15, compared to the last closing price of 11.69 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance is in line with market expectations, with a significant revenue increase from innovative drug products, achieving a year-on-year growth of 327.73% [4][5]. - The overall revenue for Q1 2025 reached 1.327 billion, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 153 million, up 4.83% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 46.39%, down 0.98 percentage points from the previous year, but the net profit margin improved by 1.55 percentage points to 10.42% due to increased government subsidies [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.417 billion, 7.423 billion, and 8.520 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 24.40%, 15.70%, and 14.80% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 721 million, 912 million, and 1.133 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 86.80%, 26.50%, and 24.30% [6][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 20, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy/Maintain" with a target price of 19, compared to the last closing price of 15.35 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 830 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.47% to 131 million yuan [4][5]. - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 553 million yuan, with a gross margin of 66.64%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales expense ratio improved to 36.84%, down by 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company has a rich pipeline of generic drugs under development, with 87 projects as of last year-end. It is expected to submit a record number of generic drug applications this year, with an anticipated 20-30 new products approved annually, contributing to incremental revenue [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.853 billion, 4.238 billion, and 4.662 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 11.82%, 9.99%, and 10.00% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 543 million, 632 million, and 728 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 11.19%, 16.32%, and 15.24% [6][7]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14, 12, and 10 times, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.419 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 28 million yuan, down 72.91% year-on-year [4][9] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 461 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, but a net loss of 21 million yuan [4][5] - The automotive optical business has entered mass production, contributing to revenue growth [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 699 million yuan, up 24.21% year-on-year, with a reduced net loss of 15 million yuan compared to a loss of 25 million yuan in Q4 2023 [5][6] - The core components and complete machine business generated revenue of 2.240 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.48% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the automotive optical business [5][6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 22.15% and 25.21% respectively, both under pressure compared to previous periods [6][9] Business Segment Performance - The automotive optical business revenue reached 638 million yuan in 2024, while the cinema and professional display businesses generated nearly 570 million yuan and 392 million yuan respectively [5][6] - The overseas revenue for the professional display business was approximately 140 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 60.47% [5][6] Regional Performance - In 2024, domestic and overseas revenues were 2.141 billion yuan and 277 million yuan respectively, with domestic revenue growing by 14.93% and overseas revenue declining by 20.81% [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the film industry and the growth of the intelligent cockpit market, with projected net profits of 120 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 215 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 55.91, 37.11, and 31.09 [7][9]

- Model Name: Deviation Correction Model for Computer Index[4] - Model Construction Idea: The model assumes that the price trend of the target relative to the reference target has a repeated deviation-regression cycle, and the degree of deviation has a limit. By statistically analyzing the existing data, a reasonable threshold can be found. When the price is below this value, it indicates that the current price deviation is close to the limit, and the space for further decline is limited, so it is suitable to buy and hold until the price returns[6] - Specific Construction Process: 1. Calculate the closing price of the SW First-level Computer Index relative to the CSI 300 Index within the calculation period, denoted as cl[5] 2. Calculate the drawdown sequence W within the period[5] 3. Calculate the maximum value during each single drawdown period in W[6] 4. Arrange the maximum drawdown values in descending order to get sequence S, and sum S to get T[6] 5. Perform cumulative addition on S, stop when the cumulative sum reaches or exceeds 80% of T, and remove the values in S that did not participate in the cumulative addition, resulting in sequence S1[6] 6. Use an iterative method to further screen the elements in S1 by repeating the above two steps until the iterative result no longer changes, resulting in the effective drawdown set C[6] 7. Take 80% of the maximum value in C as the threshold. When W is greater than this threshold, the signal is 1 (buy); when W is 0, the signal is also zero (close position); in other cases, the signal is set to the previous value[6] - Model Evaluation: The model is not applicable in the tracking period as it shows significant volatility and long-term drawdown, with the final drawdown exceeding the previous ones, indicating that the current price trend is outside the statistical sample[7] Model Backtest Results - Total Strategy Return: 78.50%[6] - Buy and Hold Return: 152.35%[6] - Total Excess Return: -73.86%[6] - Maximum Drawdown: 54.68%[6] - Longest Drawdown Duration: 2261 trading days[6]

- The report introduces an industry crowding monitoring model to track daily crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices. The model identifies high crowding levels in industries such as beauty care, basic chemicals, and utilities, while industries like media and electrical equipment exhibit lower crowding levels[3] - A Z-score model is constructed to monitor ETF product signals. This model calculates rolling measurements to identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETFs while also warning of potential risks of price corrections[4] - The Z-score model is applied to ETF products, providing signals for potential arbitrage opportunities and highlighting risks associated with price adjustments[4] - The report provides detailed data on ETF fund flows, categorizing them into broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. It highlights the top three funds with the highest inflows and outflows for each category[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model tracks the movement of main funds across industries over the past three trading days, showing significant inflows into industries like automobiles and utilities, while outflows are observed in industries such as electronics and retail[3][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the model assumes a cyclical pattern of price deviation and regression relative to a reference index, with a defined limit on the degree of deviation, allowing for strategic buying when prices approach this limit [4][5]. - The model's design principle involves statistical analysis of historical data to identify reasonable thresholds for price deviations, which can signal buying opportunities when prices fall below these thresholds [4][5]. - The model tracks the performance of the Shenwan Level 1 Defense Industry Index relative to the CSI 300 Index over a defined period from January 4, 2010, to March 18, 2025 [4][5]. Group 2 - The total return of the interval strategy is reported at 159.57%, significantly outperforming the buy-and-hold return of 42.53%, resulting in an excess return of 117.05% [4]. - The maximum drawdown recorded is 50.87%, with the longest drawdown period lasting 2108 trading days, indicating substantial volatility in the strategy's performance [4]. - The model's effectiveness is questioned due to the observed price movements falling outside the historical sample range, suggesting that the strategy may not provide reliable guidance for future investments in the defense industry index [5].

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][15] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a year-on-year revenue increase of 23.35% to 52.22 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 29.65% to 4.58 billion yuan, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of 49.11% [3][4][6] - The three main business segments of the company are performing steadily, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic, magnetic materials, and lithium battery sectors [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 52.22 billion yuan, up 23.35% year-on-year and 4.93% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 4.58 billion yuan, up 29.65% year-on-year but down 49.11% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - Photovoltaic business revenue was approximately 34.5 billion yuan with a shipment of about 5.9 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of about 65% [4] - Magnetic materials revenue was around 11.30 billion yuan with shipments of 53,000 units; lithium battery revenue was 5.4 billion yuan with a shipment of 128 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of about 28.5% [4] Business Segments - The photovoltaic segment is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with full production capacity in Indonesia contributing significantly to profits [4][6] - The company is focusing on small power applications, enhancing its 18650 battery series and developing the 21700 series, which has led to an increase in market penetration [5][6] - The magnetic materials segment is capitalizing on new replacement policies, increasing revenue and profitability through a broader customer base [5][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in Q2 2025 due to ongoing domestic demand and a 90-day tariff exemption in Southeast Asia [4][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 210.96 billion yuan, 242.17 billion yuan, and 299.25 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 19.42 billion yuan, 22.81 billion yuan, and 28.81 billion yuan [6][7]