Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Mengniu Dairy [2][6]. Core Views - Supply depletion is occurring in the raw milk market, with prices stabilizing at a low level, indicating a potential reversal in the cycle [3][11]. - The reversal of milk prices is expected to positively impact Mengniu's profitability, as the company is increasingly affected by the upstream raw milk cycle [4][12]. - The company is focusing on improving operating profit margins and shareholder returns, with a planned increase in dividend payout [5][13]. Financial Summary - The current share price is HK$19.76, with a target price set at HK$27.60, indicating a potential upside [2]. - Market capitalization stands at HK$77.38 billion (approximately US$9.98 billion) [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at Rmb 91.44 billion, Rmb 95.82 billion, and Rmb 101.30 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 4.8%, and 5.7% [6][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be Rmb 5.41 billion, Rmb 5.81 billion, and Rmb 6.42 billion for the same period, with significant growth expected in 2026 and 2027 [6][13]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb 1.38 in 2025 to Rmb 1.64 in 2027 [6][13]. Market Dynamics - The price of raw milk has been on a downward trend for nearly four years, reaching a 14-year low, which has led to a reduction in upstream production capacity [3][11]. - The national dairy herd has decreased by 5.8%, with expectations that a balance between supply and demand will be achieved at around 5.9 million heads [3][11]. - If the raw milk cycle reverses, it could lead to improved sales prices and reduced competition among dairy companies [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with strong profitability driven by several advantages, including robust R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory layout [2]. - The company has a manageable risk profile regarding tariffs, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S., and potential tariff impacts on overall orders estimated to be less than 3% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, with positive trends in orders from Uniqlo, Adidas, and Nike, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas, enhancing its market position [15]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 28.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.79%, and a net profit of CNY 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15]. Investment Logic - The company’s diversified production capacity and collaboration with major clients provide a competitive edge, with the potential to increase market share amid industry disruptions [3]. - The company's management has shown confidence in its future by increasing their shareholdings during recent market fluctuations [3][4]. Short-term Orders - The company is expected to see improved order conditions due to the recovery of its core clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive sales trends [4]. - The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers they work with [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is projected to be CNY 4.39, CNY 4.91, and CNY 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 11 times for 2025 [5]. - The report indicates that the company’s recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target valuation based on a PE of 14 times for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with a strong client base including Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas. Its high profitability is attributed to several advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory locations [2][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, leading to improved order conditions. The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a significant portion of its production in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, accounting for 47%, 27%, and 26% of capacity respectively [2][55]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.79%, and a net profit of RMB 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15][25]. Investment Logic - The company has a manageable risk profile compared to its peers, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S. The potential impact of tariffs is estimated to be less than 3% on overall orders [3][63]. - The recent tariff situation is expected to accelerate the exit of smaller competitors, allowing the company to capture additional market share due to its stronger financial and operational resilience [3][64]. Short-term Orders - The company is optimistic about order improvements from its four major clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive trends. Adidas is expected to recover its brand strength, which will benefit the company [4][11]. - The long-term market share is projected to increase as major clients reduce their supplier base, enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.39, RMB 4.91, and RMB 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE of 11 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation opportunity [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target price set at HKD 65.17 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting significant growth in cloud business revenue and overall profits [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, significantly boosting profits. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 522 million, 656 million, and 883 million RMB respectively, with EPS expected to be 0.46, 0.57, and 0.77 RMB [4][7]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 8.20 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1%. However, cloud services revenue is expected to grow by 38.1% to 2.76 billion RMB, while enterprise management software revenue is projected to increase by 3.7% to 2.56 billion RMB [8][9]. - The company is focusing on large enterprises and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, having enabled digital transformation for numerous central government-owned enterprises and top companies in China [9][10]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million RMB): 8,294 in 2023, projected to decline to 8,201 in 2024, then increase to 8,586 in 2025, 9,213 in 2026, and 10,291 in 2027 [3][6]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 1,918 in 2023, expected to rise to 2,208 in 2024, 2,447 in 2025, 2,718 in 2026, and 3,190 in 2027 [3][6]. - Gross profit margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2024 to 31.0% in 2027 [6]. - The company plans to continue returning value to shareholders with a proposed dividend of 0.08 HKD per share [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its presence in the large enterprise market and plans to release advanced AI-driven platforms in 2024, enhancing its competitive edge in the ERP sector [9][10]. - The introduction of foundation models is expected to improve the company's smart supply chain products, focusing on various industries such as pharmaceuticals and manufacturing [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, 7.93 billion RMB for 2026, and 9.16 billion RMB for 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The target price has been raised to 17.83 HKD, reflecting a dynamic price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.5x for 2025 [5][9]. - The company is experiencing stable performance with operating net cash flow growing significantly, projected at 0.93 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 42.9% [5][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit is projected to be -0.14 billion RMB, showing a 32.3% improvement [4][5]. - Cloud service revenue is expected to reach 5.11 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue, with a cloud subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% increase [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company's cloud services, particularly the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Xinghan, which achieved a combined revenue of 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, a 32.9% increase [5][9]. AI Integration and Product Development - The company is accelerating the integration of AI with its ERP systems, launching over 20 AI applications and signing contracts with nearly 20 large enterprises. This includes significant advancements in financial management and HR [5][9]. - The AI applications are expected to enhance customer transaction values, with over 7,500 small micro enterprises benefiting from AI-enabled products [5][9].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 42.755 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.708 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with core operating profit rising by 18.7% to 6.230 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 90% in 2023 to 95% in 2024 [9] - The company has initiated the "Pomegranate Plan" and is steadily advancing its franchise business, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 62.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant rise in gross margin to 63.2% in H2 2024 [3] - The net profit for 2024 was 4.708 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 1,355 direct stores, with a net reduction of 19 stores throughout the year, but began a steady expansion in H2 2024 [2] - The company has completed the review and establishment of 13 franchise stores, indicating a commitment to expanding its franchise network [9] Sales and Customer Metrics - The overall average customer spending was 97.5 yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, but showing a recovery in H2 2024 [2] - The overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 times, although it showed a slight decline compared to H1 2024 [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 44.146 billion yuan, 46.880 billion yuan, and 49.751 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.843 billion yuan, 5.568 billion yuan, and 6.218 billion yuan [10]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 42.755 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.708 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with core operating profit rising by 18.7% to 6.230 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 90% in 2023 to 95% in 2024 [9] - The company has initiated the "Pomegranate Plan" and is steadily advancing its franchise business, which is expected to open new growth avenues [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 62.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, with the second half of 2024 showing a gross margin of 63.2%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit for 2024 was 4.708 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 1,355 direct stores, with a net reduction of 19 stores throughout the year, but began a steady expansion in the second half of 2024 [2] - The company has completed the review and establishment of 13 franchise stores, indicating a commitment to expanding its franchise network [9] Sales and Customer Metrics - The overall average customer spending in 2024 was 97.5 yuan, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, but showing a recovery in the second half of 2024 [2] - The overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 times per day, although it showed a slight decline compared to the first half of 2024 [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 44.146 billion yuan, 46.880 billion yuan, and 49.751 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.843 billion yuan, 5.568 billion yuan, and 6.218 billion yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][47] Core Views - The company has accumulated over 200 million paying users through its WeChat mini-program, with a significant focus on improving ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) in 2024, showing a 50% increase compared to 2019 [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism, with domestic travel volume projected to increase by 6.3% during the Qingming holiday and a continued positive trend for the May Day holiday [4][12] - The company's domestic platform booking growth is anticipated to outperform the industry, with outbound travel expected to create a new growth curve [4][25] - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) business profit margin is entering an upward cycle, with a projected profit margin of 26.9% in 2024, indicating room for improvement compared to industry leaders [4][39] Summary by Sections Business Review - The company was formed by the merger of Tongcheng and Elong in March 2018, focusing on differentiated positioning in the market. The strategic shift from user acquisition to ARPU enhancement began in 2023, resulting in a doubling of paying users [3][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.734 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 22% from 2018 to 2024, and an adjusted net profit of 2.785 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.4% during the same period [7][54] Future Outlook - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, benefiting from policies aimed at boosting service consumption. The domestic travel volume during major holidays is projected to account for 35.8% of the annual total, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [4][16] - The company is actively expanding its outbound travel business, with a projected growth of 130% in outbound flight bookings and 110% in hotel bookings by the end of 2024 [4][36] - The OTA business is expected to see profit margins improve, with a focus on optimizing marketing ROI and enhancing user engagement through targeted subsidies [4][39] Financial Projections - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts of 3.30 billion, 3.89 billion, and 4.53 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [5][47] - The overall profitability is expected to support a CAGR of over 17% in adjusted profits over the next three years, with current valuations still considered attractive [5][47]