Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, expecting a return above 10% over the next 12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - CR Beverage is positioned to benefit from national expansion and market penetration strategies, which are expected to drive revenue growth [9]. - The company plans to improve its gross margin by increasing its self-production ratio from approximately 50% in 1H24 to 70% by FY26F, which will enhance cost control and product quality [2]. - The target price for CR Beverage is set at HKD 17.50, based on a 20x FY25F price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the average valuation of the Chinese beverage sector [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for CR Beverage are as follows: - FY23: RMB 13,515 million - FY24: RMB 14,224 million - FY25: RMB 15,217 million - FY26: RMB 16,443 million - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from FY24 to FY26 is estimated at 3.5% [3]. - Net profit forecasts are: - FY23: RMB 1,329 million - FY24: RMB 1,626 million - FY25: RMB 1,891 million - FY26: RMB 2,067 million - The CAGR for adjusted net profit from FY24 to FY26 is projected at 16.8% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - CR Beverage holds an 18.4% market share, ranking second in China's packaged water market, with significant growth potential in northern and central-western regions [1]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence by deepening penetration in lower-tier cities and expanding retail network coverage [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 22 CNY per share [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to record a net profit of between 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY for 2024, a significant decrease from 4.8 billion CNY in the previous year [7]. - The report highlights that while revenue is anticipated to decline due to weak demand, cost pressures are expected to ease, leading to an improvement in gross and operating profit margins [7]. - A substantial impairment loss is projected to impact the company's overall profitability, primarily due to losses from its subsidiary Bellamy's and its joint venture Modern Dairy [7]. - The outlook for 2025 is more optimistic, with expectations of gradual revenue recovery driven by favorable policies and supply-demand improvements in the dairy sector [7]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a historical dividend yield of over 2% [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in dairy products, with a market capitalization of 56.43 billion CNY [2]. - The major shareholder is COFCO Group, holding 24.14% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.809 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of 121 million CNY for 2024, followed by a recovery to 4.405 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.075 billion CNY in 2026 [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to drop to 0.03 CNY in 2024, then rise to 1.12 CNY in 2025 and 1.30 CNY in 2026 [9]. Market Position - The product mix is heavily weighted towards liquid milk (81.18%), with ice cream (7.55%), milk powder (3.66%), cheese (4.73%), and other products making up the remainder [3]. - The stock price has shown a 15.82% increase over the past month, while it has decreased by 1.43% over the past year [2].

上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 买入（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位：人民币 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 84.23 | 100.7 | 113.0 | 123.8 | 134.5 | | 同比增长率（%） | 21% | 20% | 12% | 10% | 9% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | 9.6 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 15.8 | | 同比增长率（%） | 29% | 20% | 13% | 12% | 9% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.76 | | 毛利率（%） | 41.1% | 41.5% | 41.6% | 41.8% | 41.9% | | 市盈率 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 注："每股收益"为归属于母公司所有者的净利润除以总股本，ROE 为报告期净利润 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 经营反转周期正展开 目标价：7.5 港元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2023 | 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 19,532 | 21,020 | | 22,801 | 24,325 | | YoY | -8.3% | 7.6% | | 8.5% | 6.7% | | 归母净利润（百万 元） | 3,390 | 3,875 | | 4,481 | 4,976 | | YoY | -31.4% | 14.3% | | 15.7% | 11.0% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.37 | 0.43 | | 0.49 | 0.55 | | 市盈率（倍） | 14.6 | 12.8 | | 11.1 | 10.0 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.0 | 1.9 | | 1.7 | 1.6 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 3 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth is expected to recover to a double-digit year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a continuous decline since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, failing to sustain previous improvements [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Ping An Good Doctor are as follows (in million RMB): - 2023: 4,674 - 2024: 4,808 (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: 5,480 (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: 6,253 (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: 7,211 (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, with further growth to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 32.3% in 2023 to 31.1% by 2027 [8]. Market Expectations - The report indicates that the market anticipates a revenue growth rate of 7% for Ping An Good Doctor in the coming years, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.0 for 2025E [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expressing confidence in achieving year-on-year revenue growth in the latter half of 2024 [8]. - The operating profit margin for 2025 is projected to improve slightly due to better retail discounts and an increased sales proportion of new products, despite potential challenges from e-commerce growth affecting channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to decline from RMB 20,064 million in 2023 to RMB 18,592 million in 2025, with a year-on-year change of -8% in 2024 and a slight recovery of 1% in 2025 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 523 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 450% in 2023, followed by modest growth rates in subsequent years [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2023 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period last year [7][17] - The continuing business segments are expected to show positive trends in 2025, with revenue from continuing operations projected at approximately $594.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [3][14] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million, also growing by 15% [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [3][14] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed a recovery with a growth rate of about 38% in the second half of 2024 [3][14] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $22.6 million [3][14] Legend Biotech - Following the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was approximately $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at about $3.231 billion [5][16]

证券研究报告 越秀交通基建 (1052 HK) 港股通 业绩符合预期，但摊销上调或成隐忧 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 14 日│中国香港 | 路桥 | 越秀交通基建公布 2024 年业绩：收入 38.67 亿元，同比-2.5%；归母净利 润 6.57 亿元，同比-14.2%，基本符合我们预期（6.46 亿元）。盈利下滑主 因：1）行业层面：收费天数减少、1Q 恶劣天气、运输需求不足；2）公司 层面：摊销费用大幅增长、广州北环到期、路网分流影响。公司拟派发末期 股息 0.13 港元/股，连同已派发的中期股息 0.12 港元/股，全年分红比例拟 达到 58.5%、股息率约 6.7%。公司在 24 年下半年进一步上调无形资产摊 销，或对 25 年盈利产生拖累。考虑摊销调整对经营现金流无影响，我们也 仍然看好公司持续收购路产的能力，维持"买入"。 24 年盈利下滑，主因摊销上调与广州北环到期 因天津津雄高速剩余收费期较短以及展期需要额外资本开支，公司在 24 年 末出售该项目，录得处置收益 6584 万元。公司在 23 ...

证券研究报告 中国飞鹤 (6186 HK) 港股通 生育政策加码，婴配粉龙头有望迎来利好 华泰研究 动态点评 2025 年 3 月 14 日│中国香港 食品 今年以来，生育刺激政策正在加速落地：3 月 6 日财政部部长蓝佛安表示今 年加大对民生领域的投入力度，让居民收入更稳定，同时提出对幼儿发放育 儿补贴，建立学前教育国家资助制度；3 月 7 日国家卫生健康委员会主任雷 海潮指出今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同有关部门起草相关的育 儿补贴的操作方案（据第一财经）；3 月 13 日内蒙古呼和浩特发布育儿补贴 细则（对于生育一孩/二孩/三孩及以上分别发放补贴 1/5/10 万元），3 月 1 日起实施，提供产妇 "一杯奶"生育关怀，同时，义务教育阶段二孩入学 "幼随长走、就近择优"&三孩及以上家庭孩子入学可在全市自由选择。政 策端多措并举、居民生育意愿有望提升，公司作为婴配粉龙头企业迎来利好， 维持"买入"评级。 24 年新生人口数量同比增加，生育刺激落地有望带来发展新机遇 伴随着新国标出台后中小品牌促销及去库存已步入尾声，婴配粉行业竞争趋 于理性，整体价盘逐步企稳，据国家统计局数据，24 年我国出生人口数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.00 [6][15][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2H24 was HKD 2.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, exceeding the consensus estimate of HKD 2.47 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected income from health and elderly care services [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit was HKD 0.07 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of HKD 0.09 billion, attributed to forward-looking investments in elderly care, corporate health, and AI business [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of synergies with the group and the progress of AI technology in enhancing business efficiency [1]. Revenue and Profitability - Medical services revenue increased by 6.7% to HKD 1.11 billion in 2H24, driven by enhanced collaboration with group medical insurance and the development of family doctor compensation models [2]. - The gross margin for medical services improved to 46.6%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to structural changes within the business [2]. - Health services revenue decreased by 0.2% to HKD 1.37 billion, impacted by one-time factors and a high base from 2H23 [3]. - The gross margin for health services fell to 18.9%, down 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to the expansion of corporate health services with lower profitability [3]. Strategic Developments - The company achieved steady progress in expanding high-value strategic users, with F-end strategic business revenue growing by 9.6% to HKD 2.42 billion in 2H24 [4]. - B-end strategic business revenue surged by 32.7% to HKD 1.43 billion, with the number of serviced enterprises reaching 2,049 [4]. - The company is focusing on building "two major hubs and four networks" in its medical service network, with nearly 4,000 cooperating hospitals and 235,000 cooperating pharmacies as of 2H24 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 23.3% and 22.1% to HKD 0.30 billion and HKD 0.39 billion, respectively, due to AI cost reduction and cautious expense management [5]. - The new target price based on DCF is HKD 9.00, up from HKD 7.50, corresponding to 3.3x and 3.0x the projected PS for 2025 and 2026 [15]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 5.38 billion in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [7].