交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 120.80 | 港元 | 165.00 | +36.6% | | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | | 外卖日单峰值突破 1 亿，运营能力仍有优势，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 386,213 | 437,899 | 474,235 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 43,485 | 58,982 | 66,969 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.01 | 9.51 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 154 HKD, indicating an upside potential of over 80% from the current price of 85.8 HKD [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a new cycle logic in the pig farming industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy interventions, which may lead to a phase of capacity reduction and recovery challenges [6][45]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated livestock farming enterprise in China, focusing on pig and poultry farming, with a strong emphasis on cost management and innovative farming models [17][30]. Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to a potential decline in pig prices and reduced profitability for farmers [1][44]. - The chicken market is expected to see a marginal recovery in prices in the second half of the year, driven by improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2][56]. Company Overview - The company has developed a unique farming model that integrates traditional farming with innovative practices, allowing for rapid expansion and improved farmer collaboration [3][57]. - The pig farming segment has shown significant growth, with a projected output of 11 million pigs by 2025, contributing to an estimated market value of 33 billion CNY [6][30]. - The poultry segment has also seen a doubling of market share from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by a diversified product matrix and improved breeding techniques [4][30]. Business Segments - The pig farming business leverages a dual farming model, enhancing resource sharing and operational efficiency, which has resulted in a competitive cost structure [3][57]. - The chicken business focuses on breeding and product diversification, responding to market trends and consumer preferences, which is expected to support future price elasticity [4][56]. - The company's slaughtering operations are expanding, aligning with industry trends towards vertical integration and enhanced food processing capabilities [5][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - Geely Automobile has raised its annual sales target by 10.7%, from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth prospects [11] - The company's sales in June reached 236,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with electric vehicle sales growing by 85.5% [11] - The Galaxy series continues to show strong growth, with sales of 90,200 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 201.8% [11] - The report highlights that Geely's strategy is not merely about price cuts but is supported by technological advancements and strong cost control, which are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [11] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 22.50 RMB, equivalent to 24.69 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times the average for comparable companies [4] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,806 million, 7,644 million, 14,116 million, 16,739 million, and 20,314 million RMB for the same period [6][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,308 million, 16,632 million, 15,121 million, 17,735 million, and 21,451 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -9.1%, 17.3%, and 21.0% respectively [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The launch of the Xiaopeng G7 marks a significant advancement in assisted driving technology, entering the L3 computing power era with local VLA+VLM capabilities [9] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 94.69 billion in 2025, RMB 167.57 billion in 2026, and RMB 249.07 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 131.70%, 76.97%, and 48.64% respectively [1][10] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 349.07 million, with a staggering increase of 2,069.95% in 2026, reaching RMB 7.57 billion, and RMB 11.95 billion in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [1][10] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 30.68 billion, RMB 40.87 billion, RMB 94.69 billion, RMB 167.57 billion, and RMB 249.07 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.23%, 33.22%, 131.70%, 76.97%, and 48.64% [1][10] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of RMB (5.44), RMB (3.04), RMB 0.18, RMB 3.97, and RMB 6.27 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 367.54 in 2025, decreasing to 16.94 in 2026 and further to 10.73 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as profitability increases [1][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1][7]. Core Views - The company has raised its full-year sales target for 2025 to 3 million units, maintaining an optimistic outlook for its overall operating performance [3][7]. - The report highlights a strong sales performance in June 2025, with total sales reaching 236,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42% [7]. - The company expects continued growth in revenue and net profit, driven by its "Smart Geely 2025" strategy [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 321,801 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 5,166 million RMB in 2023 to 16,299 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 222% [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.62 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.6 times, leading to a target price of 29.49 HKD [7]. Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company sold 236,000 vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 122,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 129% for pure electric vehicles and 30% for plug-in hybrids [7]. - For the first half of 2025, total sales reached 1,409,000 units, a 47% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales at 725,000 units, reflecting a growth of 173% for pure electric vehicles [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (9868 HK) with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 82.1% from the current price of HKD 73.95 [9][11]. Core Insights - The launch of the XPeng G7 on July 3, 2025, features three models with prices ranging from RMB 195,800 to RMB 225,800, showcasing a significant price reduction of RMB 40,000 from the pre-launch price [3]. - The XPeng G7 is positioned as a competitive option in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market, emphasizing value for money, comfort, and advanced technology [3]. - The report highlights the G7's superior space and intelligent features compared to competitors like the Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y, with a focus on its AI capabilities and overall driving experience [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The XPeng G7 was officially launched with three variants priced between RMB 195,800 and RMB 225,800, with the 702 km range version prioritized for delivery [3]. - The pricing strategy reflects a competitive edge against similar models in the market, particularly against the Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y [3]. Competitive Analysis - The G7's pricing is significantly lower than that of the Tesla Model Y (RMB 263,500 to RMB 313,500) and Xiaomi YU7 (RMB 223,500 to RMB 329,900), enhancing its attractiveness in the market [3][4]. - In terms of specifications, the G7 offers a larger body size and superior intelligent features, including three self-developed AI chips with a total computing power exceeding 2200 TOPS [3][4]. Performance and Technology - The G7 features a single rear motor with a maximum power of 218 kW, a top speed of 202 km/h, and a battery capacity of 80.8 kWh, achieving a CLTC range of 702 km [3]. - The vehicle supports 800V fast charging, allowing a charge from 10% to 80% in just 18 minutes, enhancing its long-distance travel convenience [3]. Market Outlook - XPeng Motors has delivered over 197,000 vehicles in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target [3]. - The report anticipates continued sales growth with the introduction of new models and the upcoming launch of the XPeng Kunpeng hybrid model in Q4 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue driven by third-party channels, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 842 million, 948 million, and 1,028 million RMB respectively [2][9]. - The company is enhancing its valuation support through high dividend payouts, with a proposed dividend of 0.6775 RMB per share for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 94.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with established production centers in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming to replicate domestic channel efficiencies [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 6,148 million, 6,540 million, 7,101 million, 7,715 million, and 8,297 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.0%, 6.4%, 8.6%, 8.7%, and 7.5% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit is forecasted to be 1,195 million, 1,108 million, 1,201 million, 1,312 million, and 1,409 million RMB for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, -7.2%, 8.4%, 9.2%, and 7.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable decrease in 2024A, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 15.1 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times [2][9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 14,410 million HKD [5]. Performance Analysis - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of 1.92% over the past week and 3.58% over the past month, indicating a positive trend compared to the Hang Seng Index [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Short-term increased investment in flash sales may pressure profits, but long-term ecosystem synergy is promising [1] - The company is expected to enhance its cloud business growth through active investment in AI infrastructure, which may offset some capital expenditure impacts [1] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 has been revised down to 163.1 billion and 182.8 billion respectively, with a new FY2028 forecast of 202.8 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 12.1%, and 10.9% [1][4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2024A revenue is 941.168 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% - FY2025A revenue is projected at 996.347 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% - FY2026E revenue is expected to reach 1,102.080 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2024A is 157.479 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025A is projected at 158.122 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% - The diluted EPS for FY2026E is expected to be 8.8, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 11.0 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is the first AI model approved by the state for large-scale application in campus education, currently used in 107 schools with 250,000 teachers and students [1]. - The AI model integrates generative AI technology with educational research, creating a comprehensive ecosystem for teaching, learning, management, evaluation, and practice [1]. - The company plans to pilot an empathetic AI teacher by September and aims to build a digital education community in collaboration with hundreds of schools and enterprises over the next three years [1]. Summary by Sections AI Application in Education - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is designed to enhance educational digital transformation and is supported by strategic partnerships with several leading schools [2]. - The model utilizes a localized knowledge graph and various AI tools to provide precise learning diagnostics, intelligent exam analysis, and dynamic path optimization [2]. Market Trends - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the full implementation of AI in education in China, driven by policy, technology, and capital [3]. - The Ministry of Education and other departments have issued guidelines to accelerate educational digitalization, emphasizing the construction of educational models and the integration of AI in educational scenarios [3]. Business Strategy - The introduction of the AI college entrance examination training camp is seen as a strategic entry point for AI application, addressing the rigid demand and high willingness to pay during critical learning phases [4]. - The company possesses a strong foundation of high-quality content and practical experience, along with a robust network of self-operated and managed schools, providing a significant market advantage [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, with net profits projected at 780 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.24 HKD, corresponding to a PE valuation of 8x for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to navigate through the debt cycle successfully, with a clear repayment plan for debts maturing in 2025, aiming to reduce interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 140 billion RMB by the end of 2025 [1][7]. - The operational business continues to support the company's transformation, with operational revenue for January to May reaching 11.02 billion RMB, showing continuous growth year-on-year [1][7]. - The company has optimized its debt structure by replacing credit bonds with high-quality operational assets, enhancing financial safety [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 100.21 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7.92 billion RMB in 2025, down 23.8% from the previous year [3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 17.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 7.9% [3]. - The company has successfully reduced interest-bearing liabilities by over 30 billion RMB in the past two years, with a projected net debt ratio of 39.5% by 2027 [7][9]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on inventory reduction as a primary task, with operational and service revenue projected to reach 26.7 billion RMB in 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year [7]. - The commercial operations have shown a significant increase, with a 20% growth in turnover and over 25% increase in daily foot traffic in the first five months of 2025 [7].