公司点评 | 特步国际 主品牌稳健提升，索康尼延续强势增长 特步国际（01368.HK）跟踪点评 核心数据 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,459 | 15,559 | 16,778 | | 增长率 | 10.9% | -5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 1,030 | 1,238 | 1,379 | 1,516 | 1,664 | | 增长率 | 11.8% | 20.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | | 每股收益（EPS） | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.59 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 15.1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | | 市净率（P/B） | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，西部证券研发中心 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2025H1 increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 7.1 billion HKD, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million HKD, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year growth [1] - The property management growth remains resilient, supported by the expansion of management scale, despite a short-term adjustment in developer-related businesses [2][3] - The company has improved its profitability, with an overall gross margin of 17.0% in 2025H1, up by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025H1, the company achieved a revenue of 7.1 billion HKD, a gross profit of 1.2 billion HKD, and a net profit of 770 million HKD, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 4.7%, and 4.3% [1] - The company declared an interim and special dividend of 0.1 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 39%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The revenue from core property management, owner-added value, and non-owner-added value businesses for 2025H1 was 5.6 billion HKD, 610 million HKD, and 860 million HKD, with growth rates of +8.3%, -11.6%, and -5.9% respectively [2] - The company has a managed area of 440 million square meters, with residential properties accounting for 72.6% [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margins for core property management, owner-added value, and non-owner-added value services were 15.5%, 35.2%, and 13.4% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1 percentage points, +5.0 percentage points, and -0.7 percentage points [3] - The company has effectively controlled accounts receivable, with a total of 3.5 billion HKD in trade receivables, representing 45.4% of revenue [3] Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.61 billion HKD, 1.77 billion HKD, and 1.91 billion HKD, reflecting downward revisions of 4%, 5%, and 6% respectively [3] - The valuation remains attractive, supported by stable performance and growth prospects in property management [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the strong performance and growth potential observed in the report [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong operational trends in Q4 with new store openings, seasonal demand, and product launches, indicating sustained growth momentum [2]. - The overseas expansion is accelerating, with a target of 200 stores by the end of the year, reflecting a significant increase from 140 stores reported mid-year [2]. - The company's IP ecosystem and supply chain optimization are strengthening its competitive barriers, with successful performance from key IPs and new product launches expected to drive sales [2]. - The financial forecasts indicate substantial growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 112.8 billion, 166.2 billion, and 200.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 13.038 billion in 2024 to 59.496 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 106.92% to 15.21% [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 3.125 billion in 2024 to 20.032 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 189% and 21% in the respective years [3][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 2.36 in 2024 to 14.92 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [3][4]. Key Financial Ratios - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 29.26% in 2024, increasing to 32.59% by 2027 [5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 26.80% in 2024 to 19.27% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5]. - The current ratio is expected to improve from 3.63 in 2024 to 5.29 in 2027, reflecting strong liquidity [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (6969.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a positive outlook based on market developments and company performance [1]. Core Viewpoints - The marketing promotion of HILO in Japan is expected to accelerate, while the compliance market in the US is showing signs of recovery [1]. - The competitive landscape in Japan is intensifying, with major players like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco reducing prices, which may enhance HILO's market share [2]. - The US market is anticipated to improve further, with an increase in the compliance product listing rate expected from Q3 2025, benefiting Smoore's core supply chain [2]. - In Europe, Smoore's ODM revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 38% in the first half of 2025, indicating a successful transition from disposable products to compliant alternatives [3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line is set to launch in Japan and expand into Europe, with expectations for revenue growth in subsequent quarters [3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a continuous improvement in operational performance, with net profits projected to reach 1.23 billion, 2.02 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Market Developments - The US FDA and CBP have conducted significant enforcement actions against unauthorized e-cigarette products, indicating a tightening regulatory environment that may benefit compliant products [1]. - The introduction of new regulations in various US states is expected to enhance the market for compliant products, with a notable increase in the market share of compliant flavors [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.3 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% [6]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a decline in 2024 to a significant increase by 2027, reflecting a turnaround in profitability [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027, indicating improved shareholder value [6]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on product innovation and compliance, with a shift from disposable products to more sustainable and compliant offerings, which is expected to drive growth in various markets [3]. - The operational cash flow is projected to improve significantly, reflecting better management of working capital and operational efficiency [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 19.35, indicating a potential upside of 35.4% from the current price of HKD 14.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in sales and investment, ranking second in contract sales for the first half of 2025, with a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 120.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% [2]. - The company has a robust land reserve, with a total land bank of approximately 40.47 million square meters as of June 2025, and 86% of new land investments concentrated in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2]. - Despite a decline in profit margins, the company continues to lead the industry with a gross margin of 17.4% and a core net profit margin of 10.6% [3]. - The company has made significant progress in commercial operations, with a commercial operating income of RMB 3.54 billion, and its first REIT has been accepted for review by regulatory authorities [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Investment - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved contract sales of approximately RMB 120.15 billion, with a sales area of about 5.12 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and 5.9% respectively. The average selling price increased by 1% to RMB 23,500 per square meter [2]. Land Reserve - The company acquired land worth RMB 40.37 billion in the first half of 2025, with a total land bank of approximately 40.47 million square meters as of June 2025. The new land investments are primarily in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, accounting for 86% of the total [2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 4.3% to RMB 83.22 billion, with a gross margin of 17.4%, down by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year. The core net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 17.5% to RMB 8.78 billion [3]. Commercial Operations - The company reported a commercial operating income of RMB 3.54 billion, with a rental rate of 96.2% for shopping centers and 78.3% for office buildings. The first REIT has been accepted for review, marking a significant milestone in asset management capabilities [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, highlighting its strong market position and growth potential in the folding bicycle segment [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest folding bicycle manufacturer in China, focusing on various folding bicycle products that cater to different consumer groups. The mid-range products priced between 2500-3000 RMB account for nearly 70% of sales in 2024, indicating a shift towards higher-value offerings [2][9]. - The folding bicycle market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.8% over the past five years. The market size is projected to reach 231 billion RMB by 2024, with significant room for growth as the current penetration rate is only 5.3% [2][55]. - The company has a robust distribution network, with nearly 70% of sales coming from dealer channels. The company is also enhancing its brand image through the improvement of direct sales channels [2][103]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as the largest folding bicycle company in mainland China, leading in both retail volume and revenue as of 2024. The brand has been established since 1982 and has a strong reputation in the industry [9][12]. - The product lineup includes five main series: urban commuting, fashionable personality, outdoor exploration, superior racing, and practical utility, with a focus on continuous product iteration and innovation [2][89]. Industry Overview - The folding bicycle segment is identified as an ideal solution for urban commuting, particularly for the last mile of travel. The increasing urbanization and space constraints in cities are driving demand for folding bicycles [77][79]. - The global folding bicycle market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 12.0% expected from 2024 to 2029. The average price of folding bicycles is significantly higher than that of regular bicycles, indicating a premium market opportunity [55][68]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial growth, with revenues increasing by 18.1%, 50.2%, and 46.9% year-on-year from 2023 to the first four months of 2025. Net profits also saw substantial growth, with increases of 10.9%, 50.1%, and 69.1% during the same period [2][34]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 33% in 2024, with potential for improvement as the proportion of self-manufactured products increases [34][41]. Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading position in the folding bicycle market, ranking first in both China and globally by sales volume. The market share in mainland China is 26.3%, while the global share is 6.2% [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in collaborative robot development, ranking second worldwide with a market share of 13% in 2023, and first in China [1][3]. - The collaborative robot market is projected to grow from USD 1.0395 billion in 2023 to USD 4.95 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [1]. - The company has a strong focus on research and development, with over 25% of its workforce consisting of industry experts and engineers [3]. - The company has launched 27 robot models across four series, with applications in various sectors including automotive, electronics, healthcare, and agriculture [3][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized for its proprietary full-stack technology in collaborative robot development, covering design, manufacturing, and key component development [3]. - The founder holds a significant share of 27.97%, indicating concentrated ownership and experienced management [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 27.08% year-on-year, reaching CNY 153 million, with a gross margin improvement of 3.11 percentage points to 46.98% [10][11]. - The adjusted net loss narrowed to CNY 23 million in the same period, reflecting ongoing operational improvements [10]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 516 million, CNY 703 million, and CNY 949 million respectively, with an expected adjusted net profit turning positive in 2027 [11][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, driven by its dual strategy of upgrading collaborative robots and innovating in humanoid robotics [10][11]. Market Position - The company has established a global sales network covering over 100 countries, enhancing its market reach and application of humanoid robots [3]. - Collaborations with leading academic and industrial partners further validate the company's technology and market position [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) with a target price of HKD 12.44 [2][7]. Core Views - The introduction of the Chery Star Era ET5 featuring Horizon's HSD autonomous driving solution is expected to drive accelerated growth, with the product anticipated to launch in November 2025 [2]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted positively, with expected shipments of 4 million, 5.04 million, and 7 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 38%, 26%, and 39% [2]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 2,384 million, HKD 3,620 million, HKD 5,851 million, and HKD 8,386 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 53.6%, 51.9%, 61.6%, and 43.3% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 2,347 million in 2024, with losses of HKD 7,082 million, HKD 2,726 million, and HKD 1,436 million in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at HKD 0.17 for 2024, with negative EPS of HKD -0.51, -0.20, and -0.10 for the following years [3][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Horizon Robotics holds the leading market share in China for basic ADAS and overall ADAS solutions, with respective shares of 45.8% and 32.4% [7]. - The company has achieved significant growth in chip shipments, with 1H25 figures showing a doubling in J series chip shipments to 1.98 million units and a fivefold increase in J5/J6 chips supporting NOA functionality to 980,000 units [7]. - The establishment of a European headquarters and partnerships with international clients like Bosch and Volkswagen positions the company favorably for global expansion [7]. Valuation Perspective - The report suggests a target price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 27x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 158 billion [7]. - The valuation is compared to peers such as Nvidia, ARM, and Cambricon, with their projected PS ratios for 2026 being 21, 32, and 26 respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 11.8, while the current stock price is HKD 7.05 [3]. Core Insights - The company, Green Tea Group, is a leader in the Chinese casual dining sector, focusing on high-cost performance fusion cuisine and expanding its restaurant network primarily in East China, North China, and Guangdong [1][7]. - The company has shown rapid growth in revenue and profit, with a significant increase in the number of restaurants, reaching 502 by mid-2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [7]. - The Chinese casual dining market is projected to grow, with the market size expected to reach RMB 534.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [51]. - Green Tea's strategy includes a focus on small store formats, regional expansion, and market penetration, which is expected to drive future growth [7][26]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,589 million in 2023 to RMB 8,386 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 295 million in 2023 to RMB 785 million by 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 1,669% in 2023 [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.7 in 2023 to 5.5 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [2]. Market Overview - The casual dining market in China is characterized by a strong demand for cost-effective dining options, with consumer preferences shifting towards high-value meals [51][59]. - The market for casual dining restaurants is expected to continue expanding, with a projected market share increase from 16% in 2020 to 19.3% by 2029 [51]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a trend towards standardization and digitalization in restaurant operations, which enhances efficiency and customer experience [62][63]. Competitive Advantages - Green Tea's unique selling proposition lies in its fusion cuisine, which combines various culinary styles to attract a diverse customer base [17][18]. - The company has a robust supply chain and a strong focus on menu innovation, with significant investments in research and development to maintain customer interest [7][20]. - The small store format strategy allows for quicker returns on investment, with a payback period of approximately 14-15 months for new openings [7][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is set at ★★★★☆ [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading global gold mining company formed by integrating all gold mines of Zijin Mining outside mainland China, leveraging management advantages in low-grade resource exploration, development, and operation [1] - The company has experienced rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.4% in gold production from 2022 to 2024, significantly outpacing other large companies, and a CAGR of 61.9% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - Emerging market central banks hold only 8.9% of their asset reserves in gold, compared to 25.2% for developed countries, indicating significant potential for increasing gold reserves in these regions [3] - The average annual gold price has increased by approximately 35% from 2020 to 2024, with further long-term support expected due to declining ore grades and rising extraction costs [3] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, is projected at $2.262 billion, increasing to $2.990 billion in 2024, with a half-year revenue of $1.997 billion for 2025 [4] - Profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, is estimated at $230 million, rising to $481 million in 2024, and $520 million for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company plans to issue 3.49 billion shares, with a maximum fundraising amount of HKD 24.984 billion [4]