隐证券 综合/综合Ⅱ 时隔三年重返美元债市场，关注融资渠道多样化 复星国际（00656.HK） 2024 年 11 月 29 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/11/28 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 4.200 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 6.230/3.830 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 343.68 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 343.68 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 81.83 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 81.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 4.42 | 股价走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 复星国际 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《收入凸显韧性，创新、轻资产与全 球化助力良性增长—港股公司信息更 新报告》-2024.9.1 《标普维持现有 BB-评级展望稳定， 再融资环境获改善—港股公司信息更 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Gushengtang (2273 HK) with a target price of HKD 48 98 [4][14] Core Views - Gushengtang is a leading player in the TCM (Traditional Chinese Medicine) diagnosis and treatment service industry with a strong presence both online and offline [1][3] - The company benefits from favorable policies supporting the TCM industry and the increasing demand for TCM services due to China's aging population [2][12] - Gushengtang's revenue grew from RMB 900 million in 2019 to RMB 2 32 billion in 2023 with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB 77 million to RMB 305 million during the same period [1] - The company's OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) model effectively integrates online and offline services enhancing patient experience and expanding market reach [3][85] Industry Overview - The TCM health industry in China is expected to grow from RMB 12 82 trillion in 2022 to RMB 18 16 trillion in 2025 with a CAGR of 12% [2] - TCM diagnosis and treatment services account for the largest share of the TCM health industry with a market size of RMB 5 76 trillion in 2022 expected to reach RMB 9 89 trillion by 2025 [2][39] - The penetration rate of TCM diagnosis and treatment services is projected to increase from 13 3% in 2019 to 19 6% by 2030 driven by policy support and the aging population [43][46] Company Operations - Gushengtang operates 74 offline clinics as of July 2024 covering major regions in China including East China South China and North China [1] - The company has a robust network of over 37 000 TCM practitioners including 14 000 with senior titles [3] - Membership revenue accounted for 47% of offline revenue in H1 2024 up from 25% in 2020 indicating strong customer loyalty [3][74] - Online business revenue increased to 10% of total revenue in H1 2024 driven by the OMO model and the acquisition of online platforms like Bailu [3][86] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 3 042 million in 2024 to RMB 5 006 million in 2026 with a CAGR of 28% [4][95] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 409 million in 2024 to RMB 691 million in 2026 [4][95] - The gross margin for the core medical health solutions business is expected to improve from 30 8% in 2024 to 32 3% in 2026 [10][95] Valuation - The report uses both relative and absolute valuation methods to derive a target price of HKD 48 98 [4][14] - Relative valuation based on a PE multiple of 28x suggests a fair value of HKD 51 05 [97] - Absolute valuation using the FCFF method yields a fair value of HKD 46 90 [103] Growth Drivers - Expansion through self-built and acquired clinics is expected to drive market coverage and revenue growth [13][105] - Increasing demand for TCM services due to rising chronic disease prevalence and aging population [13][105] - Potential for further policy support for the TCM industry [13][105]

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 11 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 逆势维持较快增长，店效大幅提升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------|-----------| | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： 买入 | | 股票代码： | 3998 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元 )： | 4.66/3.24 | | | | 目标价格(港元)： 总市值(亿港元 ) | 467.11 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 4.21 | 自由流通市值 (亿港元) | 467.11 | | | | 自由流通股数 (亿) | 11,095.27 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 FY24/25H1 收入/归母净利为 88.04/11.30 亿元，同比增长 17.8%/23%，在消费低迷背景下实现较快增 长我们分析主要得益于防晒服、轻薄羽等拓品类进展顺利带来店 ...

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Trip.com Group (9961 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 582.2 [1] - The target price is based on an 18x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting a discount to the peer average of 21.9x due to recent valuation increases in US peers [6] Core Investment Thesis - Trip.com is a global leader in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry, with a strong position in China's high-end travel market and rapid global expansion [1] - The company benefits from increasing online penetration in domestic travel and structural growth in outbound travel, with its international platform Trip.com in a rapid growth phase [1] - Domestic market stability, rising profitability from outbound travel, and operational efficiency improvements are expected to drive sustained profit growth [1] Market Outlook and Industry Trends - Domestic tourism in China has recovered to 92% of 2019 levels in terms of trips and 100% in terms of revenue as of Q3 2024, with outbound and inbound travel expected to reach 80% of 2019 levels by 2024 [2] - China's tourism online penetration rate was 37% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 66%, indicating room for OTA platforms to outperform the broader tourism market [2] - Outbound travel is expected to benefit from international flight capacity recovery and policy support, with structural growth driven by expanding travel radius and increasing penetration in lower-tier cities [2] Accommodation Business - Trip.com has a strong foothold in China's high-star hotel market, with a stable supply chain and high user stickiness in high-tier cities [3] - The company's accommodation business is expected to maintain high growth from 2024-2026, driven by further online penetration in domestic hotels and rapid growth in overseas hotel bookings [3] - Trip.com's ADR (Average Daily Rate) and Take Rate are expected to remain stable, supporting revenue growth [3] Transportation Business - Transportation services, a key traffic driver for Trip.com, accounted for 56% of China's online air ticket booking market in 2019 [4] - Domestic transportation growth is expected to align with industry trends, while outbound travel demand is expected to drive higher-margin international ticket sales [4] - The business model relies on cross-selling to higher-margin accommodation and travel services, with over 30% of transportation users converting to other services as of H1 2024 [80] Financial Performance and Valuation - Revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2024-2026, reaching RMB 72.5 billion in 2026, with adjusted net profit growing at a CAGR of 22% to RMB 23.6 billion [6] - The company's adjusted net profit margin improved significantly to 29.4% in 2023, up from 7.0% in 2022, driven by strong revenue recovery and cost control [45] - Trip.com's EV/EBITDA multiple is expected to decline from 11.3x in 2024 to 7.3x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability and cash flow [8] International Expansion - Trip.com's international platform, Trip.com, is in a rapid growth phase, with international OTA platform revenue growing 60% YoY in Q3 2024 [34] - The company aims to increase the contribution of international business to 40-50% of total revenue, leveraging its strong position in the Asia-Pacific region and growing outbound demand from China [72] Competitive Positioning - Trip.com maintains a strong competitive position in China's high-end travel market, with a differentiated brand image compared to competitors like Meituan and Tongcheng, which focus on lower-tier markets [21] - The company's high ADR (Average Daily Rate) in the accommodation segment, averaging RMB 331, is significantly higher than competitors, supporting its leading position in GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) [68]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 29 年 月 日 波司登（03998.HK） FY2025H1 净利润同增 23%，期待全财年业绩稳健释放 FY2025H1 公司收入同比+18%/净利润同比+23%。公司发布 FY2025H1（截至 2024/9/30 的六个月）业绩公告：主营业务收入/净利润分别同比增长 18%/23%至 88.0/11.3 亿元，业绩表现超出预期。1）盈利质量方面：FY2025H1公司毛利率同比下降0.1pct至49.9%； 销售/管理费用率同比分别-1.4pct/+0.9pct 至 25.8%/8.7%，净利率同比+0.5pct 至 12.8%。 2）分红方面：公司宣派中期股息每股普通股 6.0 港仙。 分业务：品牌羽绒服同比快速增长 23%，OEM 业务稳健增长、全财年有望加快。 1、品牌羽绒服业务：FY2025H1 收入同比+22.7%至 60.6 亿元，收入占比达 68.9%，毛利 率同比-0.1pct 至 61.1%（我们判断主要系毛利率相对较低的雪中飞品牌占比提升所致）。 ➢ 分品牌来看：雪中飞增速快于主品牌。1）波司登主品牌 FY202 ...

SFC：BLN914 Email:licr@gyzq.com.hk 顺丰同城（9699.HK） 2024-11-29 星期五 | --- | --- | |-----------|------------| | | | | 目标价： | 14.90 港元 | | 现价： | 9.57 港元 | | 预计升幅: | 55.6% | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------| | | | | 日期 | 2024-11-28 | | 收盘价（港元） | 9.57 | | 总股本（百万股） | 933 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 8,860 | | 净资产（百万港元） | 3,289 | | 总资产（百万港元） | 4,634 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 12.84/8.10 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 3.50 | | 数据来源： Wind 、国元证券经纪 | ( 香港 ) 整理 | | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------| | | | | 顺丰集团 | 64.54% | ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： \n | 2024 年 11 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 14.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6924.51 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.76/6.03 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 61.86 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 426.60 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0823 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -17% 83% 183% 11/2712/2701/2702/2703/2704/2705/2706/2707/2708/2709/2710/27 HSCEI 康耐特光学 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 轻工制造 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - Buy-A rating (首次覆盖) [1][8] Core Views - The company is a high-dividend-paying central state-owned enterprise (SOE) with a focus on differentiated products and improving profitability [2] - The "Bio+" strategy is accelerating, driving growth in high-margin biological fertilizers and capturing demand from economic crops [3] - The company has abundant phosphate ore reserves, with potential for future growth [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 18.21 billion, with net profit of RMB 1.287 billion, a 3% YoY increase [1] - Gross margin improved from 8.66% in 2021 to 12.15% in H1 2024, while net margin increased from 3.88% to 7.77% over the same period [2] - The company's cash dividend payout ratio reached 50% in 2023, with cumulative cash dividends of RMB 1.007 billion over 2021-2023 [2] "Bio+" Strategy - The "Bio+" strategy focuses on core products like Blue Scale and Kedefeng, with new products such as the "Huanfeng" brand driving growth [3] - Revenue from the growth business reached RMB 5.555 billion in H1 2024, up 5% YoY, with pre-tax profit of RMB 398 million, a 27% YoY increase [3] - The company has completed trial production and sales of four key "Bio+" products, leveraging resources from Sinochem Group and Syngenta [3] Phosphate Ore Reserves - The company's subsidiary, Sinochem Yunlong, has nearly 200 million tons of phosphate ore reserves, with the Meizushao mining area holding 110 million tons and the Dawan mining area holding 90 million tons [4] - The Meizushao mining area has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of high-quality, low-silicon, low-heavy-metal phosphate ore, with significant future potential [4] Valuation and Forecast - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 0.17, RMB 0.19, and RMB 0.20, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.0x, 5.1x, and 5.0x [8] - The company's dividend yield is expected to be 8.28%, 9.65%, and 9.86% for 2024-2026, based on a 50% payout ratio [2] - Revenue is projected to grow by 14.02% in 2024, with net profit expected to increase by 85.33% YoY [10]

财务摘要 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 波司登(03998) 报告日期：2024 年 11 月 29 日 超预期中报，新品类注入增长动力 ——波司登点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 波司登发布 FY25 中报：24/3/31 财年中期（24/4/1-24/9/30）公司实现收入 88.0 亿元（同比+17.8%），营业利润 14.7 亿元（同比+19.6%），归母净利润 11.3 亿元 （同比+23.0%），营收和净利润均创同期历史新高，利润率连续 7 年同比提升。中期派息每股 6.0 港元，现金分红比例 54.5%。 ❑ 羽绒服业务亮丽增长，新品类持续贡献增量。羽绒服业务中期收入 60.6 亿元 （同比+22.7%），防晒衣、单壳冲锋衣等功能性新产品为非旺季业绩注入增 长动力。毛利率 61.1%（同比-0.1pp ），下降压力来自：1）毛利率相对较低 的防晒服品类及雪中飞品牌占比提升；2）羽绒原材料上升。营业利润 12.25 亿元（同比+30.6%），营业利润率 20.2%（同比+1.2pp ）。 ❑ 分品牌看羽绒服业务：波司登雪中飞双高增。波司登品牌中期收入 52.8 亿元 （同比+19.4%），占羽绒 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 29 年 月 日 中国秦发（00866.HK） 交割落地，困境反转，未来可期 2024 年 11 月 28 日，公司公告《完成非常重大出售事项出售目标公司 的 40%权益》。 ➢ 2024 年 6 月 25 日，秦发集团与浙能集团签约印尼 SDE 煤矿合作项 目。根据公司公告，秦发投资有限公司（（公司的全资附属公司）有条 件出售力远发展 40%股权于浙江能源国际有限公司，对价约 29.5 亿 元。交易完成后，浙能集团将持有 SDE 30%股权，持有 SDE 30%的 收益并承担 30%的费用；秦发所得净额约 28 亿元人民币，其中 64% 拟于偿还债务；2%用于股息分派；余额拨作资本开支以及一般营运 资金。 ➢ 2024 年 11 月 28 日，公司公告称前述出售目标公司权益已完成，本 公司全资附公司秦发投资有限公司及浙江能源亚太控股有限公司分 别拥有 60%及 40%权益，力远发展仍为公司附公司，财务业绩并表 本公司。 中国秦发：出海印尼，宏图正展。公司拥有 SDE 75%股权，SDE 煤矿资 源优异，发热量可至 4450-4500kca ...