证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 02 年 月 日 绿城中国（03900.HK） 债务结构健康，融资渠道保持畅通。公司继续优化债务结构，合理压降负债水 平，期末有息负债总额为人民币 1371.9 元（-6.1%），其中一年内到期债务 316.6 亿元，占比 23.1%；从结构看，银行借款 1046 亿元，占比 76%，债务 结构健康。综合融资成本下降 40BP 至 3.9%。公司融资渠道畅通，2024 年公 司共发行债券 125.3 亿元，加权平均发行利率为 3.88%；同时，公司积极回 购债券，期内累计回购 8.5 亿元，二级债券收益率稳中有降。美元债方面，公 司于 2025 年 2 月成功发行 5 亿美元三年期优先票据，重启中资地产美元债渠 道，认购倍数最高达到 5.4 倍，充分展现市场对公司主体信用的认可。期末， 公司剔预资产负债率为 67.3%，净负债率 56.6%，现金短债比 2.3 倍，保持 财务稳健与流动性安全。 销售表现持续处于头部梯队，2024 年公司自投销售同比仅-11.6%。公司 2024 年实现合同销售金额（含代建）2768 亿元（（-8.1%） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【 广 发 环 保 & 海 外 】 光 大 环 境 （00257.HK） 三表质量持续改善，分红超预期提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万港元） | 32,495 | 30,258 | 29,718 | 29,617 | 29,704 | | 增长率 （ % ） | -13.9% | -6.9% | -1.8% | -0.3% | 0.3% | | EBITDA（百万港元） | 13,163 | 8,708 | 11,477 | 11,666 | 12,026 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 4,429 | 3,377 | 3,502 | 3,641 | 3,906 | | 增长率 （ % ） | -3.8% | -23.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | | EPS（港元/股） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...

食品饮料/饮料乳品 中国飞鹤（06186.HK） 2025 年 04 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 2024 年利润略低于预期，持续分红提升股东回报 2024 年公司实现营收 207.49 亿元，同比+6.2%；归母净利润 35.70 亿元，同比 +5.3%。2024H2 收入 106.54 亿元，同比+8.7%；归母净利润 16.95 亿元，同比+0.1%。 同时，公司年度累计拟派发股息每股 0.3264 港元，分红率约 76%，持续分红提 升股东回报。考虑到市场竞争仍较激烈，生育政策发挥效果具有滞后性，我们下 调 2025-2026 年归母净利为 38.7、41.4（前值为 41.6、44.7）亿元，并新增 2027 年归母净利为 44.2 亿元，EPS 为 0.43、0.46、0.49 元，当前股价对应 PE 为 12.8、 11.9、11.2 倍。中国飞鹤是中国婴幼儿配方奶粉龙头，市场份额持续提升，品牌 及渠道优势稳固，维持"增持"评级 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/软件 证券研究报告 明源云（0909）公司研究报告 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[4Ta月b0le1_日S收to盘ck价In（fo港] 元） | 3.00 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 1.57-4.65 | | 总股本/流通股（百万股） | 1944/1944 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） | 5832/5832 | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨蒙 Tel:(021)23185700 Email:ym13254@haitong.com 证书:S0850523090001 分析师:杨昊翊 Tel:(021)23185620 | 沪深 对比 300 | 1M | M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | 11.59 | 16.41 | 8.16 | | 相对涨幅（%） | -14.59 | -1.24 | -10.29 | | 资料来源：海通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3% [1][2] - The cumulative wholesale sales for the first three months reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales showing significant growth of 135.4% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3% [2][4] - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting a total sales volume of 710,000 vehicles by 2025 [3][4] - The company is accelerating its AI technology integration, which is expected to boost product sales and reshape its valuation [4] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.02 billion yuan, 17.78 billion yuan, and 20.38 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 364.78 billion yuan in 2025, 439.69 billion yuan in 2026, and 512.83 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][8]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 02 年 月 日 绿城中国（03900.HK） 拿地销售领跑行业，合理减值业绩向好 大力度计提减值致业绩承压，未来公司业绩有望领先行业企稳。2024 年公司 实现营业收入 1585.5 亿元（同比+20.7%，下同），净利润 41.5 亿元（-37.9%）， 归母净利润 15.96 亿元（-48.8%）。期内公司业绩下滑，主要是公司大力度计 提减值，其中资产减值损失 40.39 亿元、信用减值损失 10.25 亿元（2023 年 两项分别为：13.91、2.3 亿元）。此外，期内公司投资收益为-6.3 亿元，相较 2023 年 21.7 亿元明显下降，影响整体利润表现。从毛利率的角度看，期内整 体毛利率为 12.8%（（-0.2pct），其中物业开发毛利率为 11.7%（（+0.4pct），毛 利率小幅提升主要是结转项目中上海及西安的两个项目毛利率较高。我们认 为，早年利润率较低项目大部分已逐步结转/减值计提，近年来新获取项目利 润率相对可观、流速较快，同时新项目公司权益比较高，未来公司业绩端有望 领先行业企稳。 销售表现持续处于头部梯 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 4[Table_StockInfo 月 1 日收盘价（港元）] | 20.1 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 15.33-23.95 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（百万股） | 2761/2761 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） | 55496/55496 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《限制性股票激励落地，坚定长期发展》 | | | 2024.06.26 | | 《重卡龙头，出海尖兵》2024.05.27 市场表现 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 中国重汽（3808）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 4.0 45.3 56.6 相对涨幅（%） 1.9 29.4 39.8 资料来源：海通证券研究所 国内重卡高端化，轻卡减亏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)2315414 ...