Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected earnings, with a projected net profit growth of 140-145% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024, amounting to approximately 330-340 million USD [1]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to the normalization of the global footwear market and a significant increase in demand for the company's shoe products from brand clients [1]. - The company is balancing demand with order scheduling and has implemented an orderly overtime plan to support net profit growth, alongside steady capacity increases throughout the year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s manufacturing revenue growth for the first nine months of 2024 shows a positive trend, with monthly growth rates of 13%, -12%, 0%, +3%, +8%, +3%, +22%, +21%, and +27% [1]. - The report indicates that after previous years of pandemic and inventory destocking, the leading footwear supply chain is regaining its growth momentum [1]. Market Position - Adidas has raised its full-year revenue guidance, which is expected to benefit the company as a key supplier in Adidas' footwear supply chain [1]. - The report expresses optimism regarding Adidas' recovery, suggesting that the improved guidance reinforces the operational cycle of major brands and restores growth momentum [1]. Earnings Forecast - Based on the performance in Q1-Q3 2024, the earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 8.65 billion USD, 9.645 billion USD, and 10.935 billion USD for FY24-26 [1]. - The projected net profits for these years are 430 million USD, 480 million USD, and 530 million USD, respectively, which are higher than previous estimates [1]. - The expected EPS for FY24-26 is revised to 0.27 USD, 0.30 USD, and 0.33 USD per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 7X, 6X, and 6X [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company shows resilience in new business growth despite concerns over revenue deceleration due to a low base. Profit margins are expected to gradually recover in Q3 and Q4 as the pace of capacity expansion slows [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25Q1, the company reported revenue of $1.435 billion, a 30.5% increase year-over-year. The education segment generated $1.278 billion, up 33.5%, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $300 million, reflecting a 23% increase, with a profit margin of 20.9%, down 1.3 percentage points. The education segment's operating profit was $303 million, up 58.4%, with a profit margin of 24%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached $265 million, a 40% increase, with a profit margin of 18.4%, up 1.2 percentage points [2]. Business Segments - The growth rates for various business segments in FY25Q1 were as follows: exam preparation +19%, consulting +21%, domestic university training +30%, and new businesses +50%. Concerns arose from a slight downward adjustment in the growth rates of high-end study abroad services and high school 1v1 tutoring [2]. - The company maintains its expectation of a 30% revenue growth rate and a 1 percentage point increase in profit margin for the education segment for the full year [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its network with a capacity growth target of 20-25% for the year. The pace of new store openings is expected to stabilize, which should lead to a gradual recovery in profit margins in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - The guidance for FY25Q2 indicates education segment revenue between $851 million and $872 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 25-28%, which is below the market's expectation of 30% [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating it is expected to benefit from the recovery in the industry and the ongoing high-end strategy [2][80]. Core Viewpoints - China Resources Beer has established itself as the largest beer company in China, with a significant focus on high-end products through its "3+3+3" strategy initiated in 2017 [1][15]. - The company has diversified into the liquor sector, enhancing its brand power and market presence through strategic acquisitions [1][23]. - The beer industry is stabilizing in volume while prices are expected to increase, particularly in the high-end segment, which presents substantial growth opportunities [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of market share among the top five companies, with a CR5 of 92% in 2023 [1][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer was founded in 1993 and has rapidly grown to become the largest beer producer in China, with beer sales reaching 11.15 million kiloliters in 2023 [1]. - The company has undergone several phases of development, including a focus on high-end product offerings and operational efficiency improvements since 2017 [1][15]. Beer Industry Analysis - The beer production peaked in 2013 and has stabilized since 2018, with expectations for future production to remain steady due to demographic trends [1][2]. - The high-end market segment is projected to continue expanding, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range, which is seen as having the most growth potential [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the top five companies holding a significant market share, indicating a concentrated market structure [1][46]. Brand and Product Strategy - The company has developed a "4+4" high-end brand matrix, combining local and international brands to cater to diverse consumer segments [1][15]. - The product portfolio covers all price ranges, with a strong emphasis on high-end products that have shown significant sales growth [1][59]. - The company has successfully launched several key products aimed at younger consumers, enhancing its market appeal [1][63]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with beer and liquor revenues contributing 36.86 billion and 2.07 billion RMB, respectively [1][3]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to grow steadily, with projected figures of 5.28 billion, 5.87 billion, and 6.38 billion RMB, respectively [2][80]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong gross margin, benefiting from cost reductions in raw materials and operational efficiencies [2][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of HKD 4.72, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Tianli International has issued 9.4 million stock options with an exercise price of HKD 4.72, which is higher than the current market price of HKD 4.55, signaling confidence in the company's future growth and market value [1]. - The company is in a rapid growth phase, focusing on talent retention and motivation as key drivers for its development in the education sector [1]. - Recent achievements in academic competitions highlight the effectiveness of Tianli's educational strategies, with multiple schools under its umbrella receiving top awards [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: HKD 4.71 - 6-Month Rating: Buy (maintained) - Target Price: HKD 4.72 [1] Company Performance - The issuance of stock options at a price above the current market price reflects the company's commitment to its future growth and shareholder confidence [1]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 9,964.73 million and a total share capital of 2,115.65 million shares [1]. Competitive Achievements - Tianli's students have excelled in national academic competitions, with over 60 students winning provincial-level first prizes in recent years [1]. - The company has developed a comprehensive training and selection system for top talent, integrating various educational stages to enhance student performance [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 47.5 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion USD for FY25Q1, representing a 31% year-on-year increase. Excluding the revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products and live e-commerce, the revenue growth was 34% [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 250 million USD, up 48% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 260 million USD, reflecting a 40% increase [1][2]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency to improve profitability while balancing growth and sustainability [1]. Financial Performance - The operating profit for the quarter was 290 million USD, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 300 million USD, up 23% [1]. - The company reported a GAAP operating profit margin of 23.7%, an increase of 370 basis points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 24.4%, up 220 basis points [2]. - The company generated a net operating cash flow of 183.2 million USD for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately 4.9 billion USD at the end of the quarter [2]. Growth Projections - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY25-27, expecting revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.5 billion USD respectively, with adjusted net profits of 560 million, 770 million, and 1.06 billion USD for the same periods [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate (downgraded)" for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion RMB for FY25H1, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with the main brand contributing 11.4 billion RMB, also down 8% [1] - The retail revenue accounted for 10.9 billion RMB, representing 84% of total revenue, down 9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million RMB, a decline of 35% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to enhance its online presence through live streaming and social media, with significant growth in sales on platforms like Douyin [1][3] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships and diversifying its product offerings, particularly in the outdoor sports segment [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25H1, the company reported total revenue of 13.1 billion RMB, down 8% year-on-year, with net profit of 870 million RMB, down 35% [1] - The company plans to adjust its revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to 26.9 billion RMB, 30.5 billion RMB, and 33.8 billion RMB respectively [4] Retail Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores and enhancing the efficiency of existing ones [2] - As of FY25H1, the company had 5,813 stores, a reduction of 331 stores compared to the previous period [1] Brand Expansion - The company has initiated partnerships with brands like HOKA ONE ONE and KAILAS, and is the exclusive operator for the Canadian brand norda in China [3] - The collaboration with Fanatics aims to expand the commercialization of sports IP in the Greater China region [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month target price maintained at 5.53 HKD [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Xtep International's main brand has achieved a retail sales growth in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a discount rate of approximately 75% and an inventory turnover of about four months [1] - The subsidiary brand Saucony has shown remarkable performance with retail sales growth exceeding 50% year-on-year [1] - The company is strategically focusing on its running business by potentially divesting K-Swiss and Paladin to strengthen its market position in the running sector [1] - The new industrial park in Bengbu, Anhui, which commenced operations in May 2023, includes approximately 48,000 square meters of footwear production facilities and 25,000 square meters for apparel, aimed at meeting expanding business demands [1] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xtep International's total share capital is 2,644.52 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 14,624.18 million HKD [1] - The company has a net asset value per share of 3.90 HKD and a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.15% [1] Financial Projections - The revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 16 billion RMB, 17.9 billion RMB, and 19.8 billion RMB respectively [1] - Net profits are projected to be 1.21 billion RMB, 1.41 billion RMB, and 1.65 billion RMB for the same period, with corresponding EPS of 0.46 RMB, 0.53 RMB, and 0.63 RMB [1] - The expected P/E ratios are 11, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue, with FY2025H1 expected to see a revenue drop of approximately 20% and a net profit decrease of 42% to 46% year-on-year. However, adjusted profit margins may improve due to product structure optimization and cost control [1][2]. - The retail environment is currently volatile, with a significant decline in RSV (retail sales value) of 21% in FY2025Q2 compared to the previous year. The mainland market has seen a similar decline, impacting overall sales performance [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on high-margin pricing products, which have shown better sales performance, helping to mitigate the overall decline in retail sales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company expects a revenue decline of 16% and a net profit drop of 10%. The revenue for FY2025 is projected at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 5.84 billion HKD [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 94.68 billion HKD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.3%. The net profit for the same year was 5.38 billion HKD, reflecting a -19.8% change [3][4]. Market Analysis - The retail sales in the mainland for July to September 2024 saw a decline of 21%, with direct store sales dropping by 24.3% and franchise store sales by 20.3%. The high gold prices have pressured the sales of gold jewelry, while fixed-price products have performed well [1][2]. - The company has optimized its store structure, with a total of 7,113 stores globally as of September 2024, including 6,968 in the mainland. The company is slowing down its store opening pace and closing underperforming locations [1][2]. Profitability Outlook - The adjusted profit margin is expected to improve due to better product mix and cost management, despite the overall revenue decline. The company aims to enhance profitability through strategic pricing and product offerings [1][2]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.59 HKD, with a projected P/E ratio of 13.4 times [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a target price based on the last closing price of 5.97 HKD [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The global TV market is experiencing strong demand for large high-end products, and panel production capacity is shifting towards Chinese companies, which may lead to increased concentration among Chinese TV brands [3]. - TCL Electronics, as a leading player in the global TV industry, is seeing a continuous increase in its market share for smart screens and high-end large screen products. The profitability of its internet business remains stable, and innovative businesses such as solar energy and comprehensive marketing are growing rapidly, enhancing brand strength [3]. - The domestic business is expected to benefit from the appliance replacement policy, leading to further growth [3]. - The projected net profits for TCL Electronics from 2024 to 2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.610 billion, and 1.931 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.77 HKD [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, TCL's global TV shipments reached 20.01 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. In Q3 2024 alone, shipments totaled 7.49 million units, up 19.7% [1]. - The average screen size of global shipments reached 51.8 inches, with shipments of 65 inches and above increasing by 16.8%, and those of 75 inches and above rising by 35.3% [1]. - In the Chinese market, shipments increased by 5.3%, with the Thunderbird brand seeing a remarkable growth of 46.6% [1]. Regional Market Insights - In Europe, shipments grew by 35.5%, with shipments of 75 inches and above soaring by 126.5% [1]. - In North America, shipments increased by 8.2% in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a significant rise of 27.5% [1]. - Emerging markets also saw a 6.0% increase in shipments, with Latin America and the Middle East/Africa markets growing by 12.1% and 22.7%, respectively [1]. Product Innovation - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments saw a remarkable growth of 162.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic shipments increasing by 181.1% [1][3].