嗯嗯公司研究丨深度报告丨川投能源（ [Table_scodeMsg1] 600674.SH） [Table_Title] 雅砻江三部曲：三江汇流，穿透川投 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 穿透川投，公司参股 48%的雅砻江公司贡献核心业绩，参股 20%的大渡河公司为辅。复盘川投 能源的成长历程，2009 年定增收购雅砻江 48%的股权后，公司的成长性与雅砻江的机组投产 节奏高度相关，共享雅砻江公司的成长红利。站在当前时点，雅砻江公司两河口增发效益显著 以及大渡河公司新一轮投产周期开启共振，将为川投能源带来可观的业绩增量。同时随着两家 参股公司的资本开支压力逐步减轻以及盈利情况改善，"投分差"具备稳步提升的基础，川投能 源分红潜力有待释放。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要 ...

2025 年 11 月 14 日 芯原股份 (688521) ——25Q3 量产业务加速放量，营收同比高增 78% 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 147.99 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 216.77/44.47 | | 市净率 | 21.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 74,143 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,029.50/13,476.52 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.76 | | 资产负债率% | 45.19 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 526/501 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 11-13 12-13 01-13 02-13 03-13 04-13 05-13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price set at 11.1 RMB based on a 30x PE for 2025 [8][11]. Core Insights - The company faced revenue pressure in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 1.83 billion RMB, down 8.98% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 754 million RMB, a decrease of 25.22% year-on-year [12][15]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced income from light asset businesses and fluctuations in project performance due to changes in the consumer environment, regional tourism demand, and increased competition [13][15]. - The company is implementing strategic adjustments, including enhancing brand influence through various marketing initiatives, which are expected to drive future growth [12][14]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 753 million RMB, down 9.94% year-on-year, and net profit was 354 million RMB, down 22.6% year-on-year [15]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 72.14%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][15]. - The company projects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 971 million, 1.04 billion, and 1.11 billion RMB, with EPS of 0.37, 0.40, and 0.42 RMB respectively [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][53]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in IT infrastructure, focusing on high-performance servers and actively promoting a domestic ecosystem [5][54]. - The merger with Hygon is expected to provide significant growth opportunities, with projected EPS of RMB 1.71, 2.16, and 2.62 for 2025-2027 [5][12]. - The global server market is anticipated to reach USD 366 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 44.6%, indicating strong demand for servers [55][26]. Financial Summary - The total revenue is projected to be RMB 14,353 million in 2023, with a forecasted growth to RMB 20,522 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from RMB 1,836 million in 2023 to RMB 3,830 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 21.3% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.25 in 2023 to RMB 2.62 in 2027 [4]. Market Position and Growth - The company has a strong presence in high-end computing, storage, liquid cooling, security, and data centers, with significant market share [54][16]. - The Chinese semiconductor memory market is expected to grow from RMB 394.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 458 billion in 2025, indicating a stable growth trajectory [56][37]. - The company is actively developing independent software and hardware to reduce reliance on external supply chains, enhancing product performance and stability [55][34]. Product and Service Development - The company offers a comprehensive range of storage products, including ParaStor distributed storage and FlashNexus centralized flash storage, which are expected to benefit from the growing market [56][44]. - Recent innovations include AI workstations and liquid cooling storage solutions, which enhance performance and energy efficiency [22][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a revenue growth rate of -6.2% in 2024, followed by a slight recovery with growth rates of 1.3%, 2.6%, and 2.3% in the subsequent years [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 14.9% in 2024, with a modest recovery in the following years, showing growth rates of 0.6%, 3.1%, and 2.8% [8] - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 64,098 million in 2024 to 74,871 million by 2027 [8] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 1,067,171 million, with a gradual increase to 1,134,662 million by 2027 [8] - The gross profit margin is projected to decrease slightly from 10.3% in 2024 to 9.8% in 2027 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.64 in 2024 to 1.75 in 2027 [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,862,843 million in 2024 to 2,054,535 million by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1][2] Core Views - The company shows initial signs of revenue recovery, with a significant increase in contract liabilities, growing by 261% compared to the beginning of the year [1][2] - The company has maintained its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 0.44 billion, 0.52 billion, and 0.77 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 52.5, 44.3, and 29.7 times [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.28 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.72%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 211.4 million, down 29.29% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 474.4 million, an increase of 5.33% year-on-year and 15.66% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 66.45 million, down 36.92% year-on-year but up 252.86% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Dynamics - The company is transitioning from new tool purchases to tool remanufacturing, with remanufacturing service revenue in the first half of 2025 reaching 10.01 million, up 47.33% year-on-year [3] - The company leverages nearly 20 years of industry experience to provide customized rock-breaking tools based on geological conditions and equipment types [3] Industry Outlook - Infrastructure investment in water conservancy reached a historical high of 1,352.9 billion in 2024, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, which is expected to further drive the development of the shield machine/TBM industry [4] - The ongoing development of the Yajiang project is expected to provide additional momentum for the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 476 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.09%. The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 26.05% year-on-year, indicating strong expansion in its core business [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2025 was -59.8 million yuan, an improvement compared to -11.2 million yuan in the same period of 2024. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to -35 million, 155 million, and 277 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.31, 1.39, and 2.48 yuan [3][5] - The company has commenced mass production of its lead-carbon battery production line in Luliang, Yunnan, marking a significant breakthrough in its manufacturing capabilities. The project has invested 423 million yuan as of the first half of 2025 [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 734 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7%. By 2026, revenues are projected to soar to 2.43 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 231.5% [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 9.8% in 2025 but is projected to recover to 16.5% in 2026 and 16.1% in 2027 [5][8] - The company’s total assets are forecasted to grow from 1.65 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.58 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 1.24 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.69 billion yuan in 2027 [7] Industry Insights - Lead-carbon batteries are noted for their safety, low cost, and maturity in technology, making them particularly suitable for household energy storage in regions with unstable power supply [4] - The integration of carbon materials in lead-acid batteries enhances their lifespan and performance, making them a viable alternative to lithium batteries in residential settings [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 1.03 billion yuan, down 13.56% year-on-year, and net profit at 39.37 million yuan, down 29.19% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to factors such as the destocking of lithium battery materials and reduced research funding from universities [2][3] - Despite the revenue decline, the company has stable growth in its order backlog, particularly in the high-power testing equipment sector, driven by a recovery in demand from the consumer electronics battery cell testing market [3][4] - The company is optimistic about growth prospects from its penetration into emerging fields, leading to a revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2][4] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase from 2024, and a net profit of 79 million yuan, a 7.6% increase from 2024. The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.99 yuan per share, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 39.8 times [6][7] - The company has a total market capitalization of 3.286 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 822 million yuan, with a current stock price of 41.04 yuan [1][6] - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 13.09% of revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.09% [4][6] Order and Inventory Status - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported contract liabilities of 37.896 million yuan, an increase of 87.14% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stable growth in orders [3][4] - The inventory level reached 65.667 million yuan, up 48.62% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to an increase in goods shipped but not yet accepted [3][4] R&D and Innovation - The company holds 80 patents and 40 software copyrights, indicating a strong focus on innovation and development [4][6] - The company has invested 18.884 million yuan in its production base construction project, which is expected to be operational by June 30, 2026 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in programmatic advertising and is strategically positioning itself in AI-driven new traffic opportunities [4][6] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 3.834 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.5% [5][6] - The company has upgraded its programmatic advertising platform, zMaticoo, achieving significant performance improvements and expanding its client base [6] - The company is actively exploring new markets, including AI-driven content formats, to capture emerging opportunities [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 249 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.6% [5][6] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3,834 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50.5% [5][8] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 249 million yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 59x [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [5] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is forecasted at 6.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.60 CNY [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance remains stable, and it is expected to continue driving growth through further optimization of digital capabilities and deepening diverse customer needs [2]. - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 11.116 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.74%. However, the company demonstrated resilience in the market [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 194 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 10.25% [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 38.312 billion CNY in 2023 to 57.441 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 18.5%, 12.3%, 8.8%, 12.5%, and 9.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 548 million CNY in 2023 to 1.116 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth in 2024 and 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 1.97 CNY in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 10.745 billion CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 17.02 to 22.80 CNY [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 12.62 CNY and a price-to-book ratio of 1.5 [7]. Profitability Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 2.5% by 2027, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from non-recurring gains related to the transfer of equity in Beijing Urban Huangsi Commercial Co., which will impact the financials positively in 2025 [11][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing the recruitment process, which is anticipated to significantly improve operational efficiency [11].