业绩承压中海外稳健，AI 与 IP 布局持续深化 ——博纳影业点评报告 影视院线 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525020002 Email：xianglan@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,374.52 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,374.52 | | 市价(元) | 9.49 | | 市值(百万元) | 13,044.19 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 13,044.19 | 报告摘要 公司披露 2025 年年度业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为负 值，经营业绩将出现亏损。公司 2025Q1~Q3 实现营收 9.72 亿元，同比增长 1.29%， 归母净利润-11.1 亿元，同比下滑 213.11%。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 股价与行业-市场走势对比 公司持续深化电影主业，推进院线布局与剧集市场稳步发展。根据拓普数据，2025 年全年全国电影市场总票房 518.32 亿元（yoy+21.95%），观 ...

投资逻辑 风险提示 原材料价格波动；下游需求恢复不及预期；新增产能投放过于密集 公司林浆纸一体化布局卓有成效，盈利表现穿越行业周期。公司核 心优势源于林浆纸一体化+三大基地协同的成本护城河、产品/原 料/工艺三重差异化与精细化运营控费，叠加产能与市场节奏精准 把控，保持行业领先的盈利能力。2015-2024 年，公司平均 ROE 为 14.96%，单吨纸浆净利润为 437 元/吨，保持行业领先水平。公司 把握行业走势能力出众，吨纸投资额较低，进一步强化较友商的折 旧成本优势。 纸浆供需格局有望好转，刺激纸价进入温和修复区间。国内纸浆投 产已近尾声+海外新增浆产能有限，浆价有望持续修复，构成纸价 上行的成本支撑。文化纸下游需求未有明显提升，且双胶纸仍有一 定新增产能投放，预计后续供需矛盾短期内仍难有实质性缓解，纸 企盈利关键在于上游深度布局林浆纸一体化、自制纸浆以增厚盈 利空间。箱板瓦楞纸未来需求增长集中在对进口纸的替代+限塑令 下环保纸包装需求增加上，头部纸企未来新增产能已较少，下游需 求支撑作用明显，供需关系持续改善下纸价有望稳步上行。 前期规划产能持续落地，未来业绩增长已有较高确定性。25-27 年， 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in revenue and performance under the control of Galanz, with a notable rebound expected starting in 2024 [1] - Galanz, as the global leader in microwave ovens, has effectively addressed industry competition through its acquisition of Whirlpool, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning [2] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing collaboration with Whirlpool Group, leading to increased orders and stable growth projected for 2026 [3] Company Overview - The company has undergone substantial changes in its ownership structure and management, transitioning to full control by Galanz, which has led to improved operational management and financial performance [1][20] - The revenue is expected to recover significantly, with a projected total revenue of 4,455 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1% [6] Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 505 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 150.5% [4] - The gross margin has steadily improved from 13.40% in 2022 to an expected 17.24% in 2025, driven by product structure optimization and enhanced supply chain efficiency [35] - The company has seen a significant reduction in employee numbers, leading to increased revenue per employee, which is expected to reach 1.3266 million yuan by 2024 [3] Market Position - Galanz holds a dominant position in the global microwave oven market with a 47% market share, and its total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 62.8 billion yuan, marking a 12.3% year-on-year growth [2][44] - The collaboration with Whirlpool is expected to enhance the company's order volume, with Whirlpool's contribution to total revenue increasing from 61% in 2023 to 73% in 2024 [3]

投资逻辑： 国产海风机组龙头，短中长三重逻辑支撑业绩进入向上通道。短 期维度，国内陆风重回通胀，我们不完全统计 2025 年各功率段陆 风机组不含塔筒中标均价同比提升超 10%，随着 2026-2027 年高价 订单交付占比提升，预计公司制造端业绩弹性有望持续释放。中期 维度，国内海风建设在经历三年调整后，需求景气度有望逐步回 暖，我们预计"十五五"阶段国内海风年平均装机有望从"十四五" 的 8GW 提升至 15-20GW，看好公司作为国内海风龙头充分受益。长 期维度，欧洲海风进入高速建设阶段，预计 2030 年后年均装机有 望提升至 15GW 以上，而当前欧洲本土海上大风机产能仅 4GW，叠 加欧洲开发商对项目降本的强烈诉求，预计公司凭借英国本土基 地实现欧洲海风市场突破，从而打开长期成长空间。 收购卫星能源系统研制商，太空光伏技术路线全面布局。2026 年 1 月 22 日，公司公告拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式收购中山 德华芯片 100%的股权，并募集配套资金。德华芯片业务主要聚焦 于柔性空间太阳电池芯片、柔性太阳电池电路等产品，具备砷化镓 组件级供应能力，总经理为蓝箭航天前高级副总裁杨文奕。2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [13]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the in vitro diagnostics field for thirty years, establishing a comprehensive product matrix of instruments and reagents with excellent performance. It has expanded horizontally into molecular diagnostics and biochemical diagnostics, solidifying its competitive advantage as a leader in chemiluminescence [3]. - As a pioneer in the overseas expansion of chemiluminescence, the company has seen rapid growth in overseas installations and revenue, exporting to 167 countries and establishing 14 overseas subsidiaries to enhance local operational capabilities. The report anticipates a performance acceleration phase in the next 3-5 years due to increasing domestic localization rates and faster entry into core hospitals and markets abroad [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemiluminescence: Domestic and Overseas Growth - The global immunodiagnostics market is expected to grow from $18.9 billion in 2019 to $27.7 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. The Chinese market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.4% during the same period [8][33]. - In China, the market is expected to recover in 2026 after experiencing a decline in 2025 due to price reductions from centralized procurement and adjustments in value-added tax [8][41]. - The localization rate for chemiluminescence products has room for improvement, with over 70% already under centralized procurement. The localization rates for various categories are 66% for sex hormones, 59% for thyroid function, 53% for tumor markers, and 52% for glucose metabolism [8][47]. Product Performance and Market Share - The company maintains industry-leading product capabilities, with a coverage rate in top-tier hospitals increasing to 61%. It has developed a full range of products, including 12 models of instruments sold globally by mid-2025 [10]. - The innovative detection method has optimized reagent performance, achieving significant improvements in sensitivity and accuracy. The company’s market share in tumor markers and thyroid function projects is expected to grow significantly [10][84]. Overseas Market Localization and Growth - The company has established 14 overseas branches, focusing on localized operations. For example, in India, the company has built a robust agent network, with revenue expected to exceed 200 million yuan by 2024 [11]. - The overseas reagent segment is anticipated to be a significant growth driver, with overseas reagent revenue projected to reach 57% by 2024, compared to 80% in the domestic market [11]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.65 billion yuan, 2.0 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26X, 21X, and 18X [11].

炬芯科技（688049.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 28 日收盘价） 把握端侧 AI 化机遇，存内计算架构赋能业绩增长 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 25 日，炬芯科技发布 2025 年年度业绩预告，2025 年全年营业收入 预计为 9.22 亿元，同比增加 41.44%；预计实现归母净利润 2.04 亿元，同比增 长 91.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.92 亿元，同比增长 144.42%。 其中，4Q25 单季度公司预计营收 2.00 亿元，同比增长 8.11%，环比减少 26.74%； 预计归母净利润 0.52 亿元，同比增长 44.44%，环比减少 13.72%。 多元布局与产品结构优化驱动业绩高增。2025 年期间，公司以端侧产品 AI 化转 型为核心战略，通过加大研发资源投入、加快新品迭代速度，经营业绩呈现高速 增长态势，公司预计全年营业收入同比增长 41.44%，净利润同比增长 91.40%， 实现盈利规模与盈利质量的双向进阶。 顺应端侧产品 AI 化行业浪潮，公司持续拓展产品矩阵版图。分产品线来看 ...

投资逻辑 公司基本盘复苏，国产替代打开主业增长空间。谐波减速器是技术 密集型行业，材料、加工工艺、加工设备等方面均存在较高技术壁 垒，以公司为首的国产谐波减速器厂商经过多年发展，打破了国际 品牌在国内机器人谐波减速器领域的垄断、并持续深化国产替代。 公司技术+成本优势领先，中商情报局披露，2024 年公司市占率 达到全球 12%，位居全球第二，国产第一。受公共安全事件结束和新 能源汽车、3C 电子等下游需求拉动影响，2024-2025 年行业持续回 暖，国家统计局披露，2024/2025 年中国工业机器人产量分别同比提 升 14.2%/28.0%，2025 年产量达到 77 万台，创历史新高。 人形机器人风口将至，公司是人形领域谐波减速器的龙头。人形机 器人市场随着 AI 技术的进步和以特斯拉为首的科技巨头加码，有望 迎来快速爆发，人形机器人自由度有持续增长趋势，将带动谐波减 速器行业数倍增长的需求。以特斯拉 Optimus 为例，单台人形机器 人谐波减速器需求量为 14 台，后续有望提升到 20 个以上。国产厂商 具备较强的创新及降本能力，相对优势显著，有望充分受益人形机 器人市场爆发带来的产业机遇。公司在 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 城商行Ⅱ 青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 业绩全面超预期 ——青岛银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 投资要点 ❑ 青岛银行 25A 利润高增，ROE 逆势提升，同时贷款投放提速，不良额率双降。 ❑ 业绩概览 青岛银行快报显示，25A 营业收入、归母净利润同比分别增长 8.0%、21.7%，增 速较 25Q1-3 提升 2.9pc、6.1pc。25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；拨备 覆盖率为292%，环比提升22pc。25A青岛银行ROE为12.68%，同比提升1.2pc。 25Q4 末青岛银行贷款、存款分别同比增长 16.5%、16.4%，增速环比分别提升 3.2pc、3.9pc。存贷增速均提升，判断主要得益于青岛银行采取早投放早收益策 略，在 25Q4 加大了贷款投放以及存款揽存，提前开启开门红投放。 ❑ 不良额率双降 25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；不良额为 38.41 亿元，环比下降 7%； 25Q4 末拨备覆盖率为 292%，环比提升 22pc，拨备进一步增厚。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 青岛银行 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 买入(维持) 事件 首席分析师：朱 S1050521110001 珠 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2026-01-28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 9.16 | | 总市值（亿元） | 54 | | 总股本（百万股） | 595 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 595 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 8.14-12.1 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 226.65 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 风语筑 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 AI+体验经济 看 2026 年新启航 1、《风语筑（603466）：主业向好 以体验经济为支点撬动业务新增量 可期》2025-04-17 2、《风语筑（603466）：业绩预告 落地 2025 年体验经济新需求与新供 给有望助力主业修复》2025-01-18 3、《风语筑（603466）：主业在手 订单充沛静待经营拐点》2024-04- 25 —风语筑（603466.SH）公司事件点评报告 风语筑发布公告：2025 年归母净 ...

25 年利润大幅增长，AI 大模型商业化持续推进 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | | 19,650 | 23,343 | 27,718 | 33,377 | 40,205 | | ） 增长率（ | % | 4.4% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 20.4% | 20.5% | | EBITDA | | 2,839 | 3,796 | 3,313 | 3,747 | 4,056 | | 归母净利润 | | 657 | 560 | 871 | 1,292 | 1,426 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 17.1% | -14.8% | 55.5% | 48.3% | 10.4% | | EPS（元/股） | | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.62 | | 市盈率（P/E） | | 163.4 | 199.4 | 1 ...