SDICSI 2025 年 04 月 10 日 移卡(9923.HK) 2H24 业绩不及预期，2025 年支付业务有望恢复增长 移卡 2H24 收入低于市场预期 11%，支付业务（收入占比 89%）低于预期 6%， 主要因 GPV 降幅大于预期。2024 年海外业务取得阶段性进展，全年 GPV 11 亿 元，预计中长期仍有较大提升潜力。我们预计 2025 年支付业务恢复同比高个 位数增长，收入增速快于 GPV 增速，带动利润企稳回升。给予 2025 年 13 倍 市盈率估值，目标价 8.2 港元，维持增持评级。 报告摘要 2H24 业绩不及预期：总收入 15 亿元，同比降 20%，较彭博一致预期低 11%， 其中一站式支付较市场预期低 6%（8,600 万元），商户解决方案较市场预期低 43%（2.4 亿元）。毛利同比增 15%，好于市场预期 2%，主要因支付业务毛利好 于预期，整体毛利率 28%，同比及环比均提升 9 个百分点。归母净利润 5100 万元，利润率 3.4%，对比去年同期为亏损 2,200 万元。经调整 EBITDA 为 2.2 亿 元，同比降 17%，EBITDA 利润率 14.7%。 支 ...

美团-W 03690.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 美团 24Q4 点评：核心主业好于预期，海 外加大投入 核心观点 1）外卖：单量高个位数增长，单均 OP 同比提升。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 外卖订 单同增高个位数。需求侧，"省"的用户心智进一步强化。供给侧，拼好饭激发更 多消费需求并提高了用户消费频次，品牌卫星店帮助品牌餐饮商家有效实现低成本 扩张，以及神抢手更好满足消费者对品质外卖需求。收入端，宏观因素影响下 24Q4AOV 同比下降、但跌幅环比有所收窄，配送收入、广告变现效率提升，一定 程度上抵消 AOV 下滑对收入的不利影响。利润端，我们判断拼好饭单量占比提升， 低价订单 UE 持续改善，以及货币化率提升，综合作用下单均 OP 同比继续改善、 环比有所下降。展望，宏观经济持续对外卖单量和 AOV 造成影响，同时外卖商户对 营销 ROI 转化效率的看重或使得部分线下预算转投线上渠道，带来广告收入增长的 结构性机会。此外，骑手社保方面，将在二季度开始试点社保方案，持续关注公司 运营提效对相关成本的抵消影响。 2）闪购：全年实现盈利。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 闪购订单同增约 25%。需求 侧，即时零售 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司深度研究 阿里巴巴-W（09988） 证券研究报告 三问：空间几何？今年产生哪些重要变化？远期有哪些看点？ 我国电商渗透率仍有空间，阿里巴巴围绕用户构筑核心优势。长期而言，我国线上购物渗透 率仍有上升空间，中短期内，受消费下行影响，电商 GMV 及社零整体增速放缓，电商平台 或进入存量竞争为主的时代。虽然线上零售份额存在下滑，但阿里巴巴通过用户为先战略 GMV 实现企稳回升，围绕 88VIP 持续发展用户生态。88VIP 已为淘天积累超 4200 万高活跃、 高购买力与高黏性用户，贡献超 25%淘天 GMV。2024 年，淘天充分升级购物权益，引入天 天 2 元红包、退货运费包、售后保障包，并持续精细化运营，设计生活卡、购物卡及全能卡， 充分发挥其权益覆盖吃穿住行，联名合作范围广的生态优势。 组织结构精简，回购持续提升股东回报。2023 年底，吴泳铭确立"用户为先、AI 驱动"两大 战略重心，同时负责淘天+阿里云两大核心业务。其中，淘天在组织结构上率先变革，将天 猫淘宝作为基础，并令吴嘉统管用户增长的用户平台事业部，以及商业变现的阿里妈妈事业 部，同时抓住流量买、卖两端。战略目标上，淘天 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.50 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year, while the adjusted Non-HKFRS net profit was 3.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.5% increase [2][5][8]. - The company has seen robust growth in innovative product revenues, which reached 12.06 billion yuan, a growth of 21.9%, accounting for 41.8% of total revenue. In 2024, six innovative products were approved for market launch, and 28 generic drugs were also approved [8]. - The oncology segment generated revenue of 10.73 billion yuan, up 22.0%, while the liver disease segment saw a decline of 10.1% to 3.44 billion yuan. The respiratory segment grew by 6.2% to 3.15 billion yuan, and the surgical/pain management segment increased by 18.9% to 4.46 billion yuan. However, the cardiovascular segment experienced a significant decline of 21.0% to 2.17 billion yuan [8]. - The company's gross margin for continuing operations improved to 81.5%, up from 81.0% in the previous year, while the selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points, showcasing effective organizational integration and management strategies [8]. - The company is positioned as a benchmark for traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovation, with a clear inflection point in its fundamentals. The growth in innovative products and optimization of the entire operational chain support its strong long-term value [8]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.655 billion yuan, 3.144 billion yuan, and 3.725 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.20 yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.061 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, and a net profit of 428 million RMB, up 31.0% year-on-year [6]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its XR business, with significant collaboration with leading technology and consumer electronics firms, enhancing its market position [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its equity incentive plan, extending the assessment period to four years, which reflects confidence in long-term growth [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1.76 billion RMB - 2024: 2.061 billion RMB - 2025: 2.403 billion RMB - 2026: 2.790 billion RMB - 2027: 3.248 billion RMB - The net profit forecast is as follows: - 2023: 327 million RMB - 2024: 428 million RMB - 2025: 528 million RMB - 2026: 636 million RMB - 2027: 762 million RMB - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.59 RMB in 2027 [2][8]. Market Data - As of April 8, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 22.20 HKD, with a market capitalization of 10.654 billion HKD [3]. - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week high of 32.00 HKD and a low of 7.72 HKD [3]. Business Development - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, with significant growth in functional lenses, which saw a revenue increase of 32.4% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is expanding its market presence in regions such as South America, India, and Mexico, contributing to revenue growth [6][7]. - The company’s self-owned brand business achieved a revenue of 1.15 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 24.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 55.8% of total revenue [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.55 HKD based on a PE ratio of 15 times [2] - The report highlights the launch of new models and the advancement in intelligent driving technology, which are expected to enhance sales performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 414,141 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 17,395 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 18,526 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 213.3% in 2024 [4] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, with the Galaxy series achieving a remarkable 290.3% growth [7] - The report indicates that Geely's sales growth is expected to outperform the industry average, which saw a 10% increase in March [7] Model Launches and Innovations - The report details the launch of several new models, including the Galaxy series and the Zeekr brand, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7] - The introduction of the L3 level intelligent driving technology is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance Geely's competitive edge in the market [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.067 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.52%. However, the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan, while the adjusted net profit increased by 3.31% to 1.676 billion yuan. In the second half of 2024, revenue dropped by 16.46% to 2.934 billion yuan, and profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.94% to 572 million yuan [2][7][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.067 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.52% year-on-year. The profit attributable to shareholders was 1.324 billion yuan, down 43.12% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 1.676 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.31%. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 2.934 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.46% year-on-year, and profit attributable to shareholders was 572 million yuan, down 22.94% year-on-year [2][10]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Zhenjiu" was 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.26% year-on-year, with sales volume at 12,284 tons, down 2.74%. The average price per ton was 3.65 million yuan, up 0.55% year-on-year. For the second half of 2024, revenue from "Zhenjiu" was 1.777 billion yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year. The "Lidu" brand generated 1.313 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 18.33% year-on-year, with sales volume at 3,033 tons, up 24.87%. The average price per ton was 4.33 million yuan, down 5.25% year-on-year [10]. Margin and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin increased to 58.63%, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 22.8%, down 0.34 percentage points year-on-year. The overall price per ton for the company was 2.85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.56% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from external recovery and internal optimization, with a projected EPS of 0.49 yuan for 2025 and 0.55 yuan for 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 12 and 11 times, respectively. The long-term outlook suggests potential benefits from a multi-brand strategy and improvements in the competitive landscape of the liquor industry [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.022 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 400 million yuan, up 31.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - Key operational metrics such as outpatient visits, customer retention rate, average spending per visit, and customer unit price have all improved in 2024, indicating robust operational performance [2]. - The company is developing an "AI avatar" of renowned doctors, leveraging extensive data sources and deep learning algorithms to replicate expert diagnostic capabilities, which is expected to enhance service delivery and accelerate revenue growth [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.022 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.902 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.65% [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 400 million yuan in 2024 to 708 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4][10]. - The report anticipates adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 1.64 yuan in 2024 to 2.95 yuan in 2027 [4][10]. Operational Metrics - In 2024, the company recorded 5.411 million outpatient visits and a customer retention rate of 67.1%, up from 65.2% in 2023 [2]. - The average spending per visit increased from 541 yuan to 559 yuan, showcasing improved customer engagement and service value [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions, as well as expanding its physical presence, with a total of 79 clinics established in China and Singapore by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The anticipated launch of several "AI avatars" of top doctors in July 2025 is expected to significantly enhance the company's service capabilities and operational efficiency [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first Non-IFRS profit in 2024, with total revenue of 9.42 billion RMB (up 51.8% year-on-year), product revenue of 8.23 billion RMB (up 43.6% year-on-year), net profit of 330 million RMB, EBITDA of 410 million RMB, and a gross margin of 84.9% (up 2.1% year-on-year). The sales and administrative expense ratio decreased to 50.9% (down 7.1% year-on-year), with cash on hand of 10.22 billion RMB and R&D investment of 2.5 billion RMB [2][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 9.42 billion RMB, marking a 51.8% increase year-on-year. Product revenue reached 8.23 billion RMB, reflecting a 43.6% year-on-year growth. The net profit was 330 million RMB, with an EBITDA of 410 million RMB and a gross margin of 84.9% [2][5][8]. Strategic Goals - The company has set clear strategic goals for the next decade, aiming for a product revenue of 20 billion RMB by 2027 and plans for five pipelines to enter global multi-center Phase III clinical trials by 2030 [8]. Product Development - The company has seen significant growth in new products, with strong sales performance from its main products, including 达伯舒® (信迪利单抗注射液) and others. The product portfolio is expanding with new targeted drugs, including 达伯特® (KRAS G12C) and others. Notable new drug approvals include 信必乐® and 信必敏® [8]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The long-term growth is driven by the oncology and comprehensive product lines, with expectations of reaching 20 billion RMB in product revenue by 2027. The company plans to leverage at least 20 approved products and expand into new clinical innovations and indications [8]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 631 million RMB, 1.142 billion RMB, and 1.570 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38 RMB, 0.69 RMB, and 0.95 RMB [8].