| 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-68808794 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 晨会纪要 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2026 年 3 月 4 日 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | PVC | 护锡 | | 橡胶 | 沪锌 | 护银 | | 螺纹钢 | 沪铜 | 棕榈油 | | 锰硅 | 沥青 | PTA | | 巨二 | 菜油 | 护铝 | | 沪铝 | 【 K可I | 直舞 | | 甲醇 | 玻璃 | 铁矿石 | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | 菜粕 | | | | 玉米淀粉 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish and oscillating - bearish views on some varieties, and oscillating and oscillating - bullish views on others [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillating, and bullish views on different varieties [9]. - In the macro - financial sector, the performance of small - and medium - cap index futures is optimistic, and the bond market is mainly in a band - trading mode [16][18]. - In the black sector, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate in the short term, and coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly [20][22]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, copper and lithium carbonate may show a bullish - oscillating trend in the short term, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will oscillate [27][28]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton is bullish, sugar is in a low - level oscillation, and the performance of other products varies [32][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply, and the performance of other products is also affected by various factors [43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25th to 26th, and both sides are willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation [11]. - The US Trade Representative may take tariff measures regarding China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement, and China hopes the US to view the issue objectively [11]. - Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven Articles" to optimize the real - estate policy, including relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing the housing provident fund loan limit [12]. - US President Trump announced continuous tariff increases and other policies in his State of the Union address, and there were some inaccurate data and misleading views in his speech [12]. - NVIDIA's Q4 revenue in fiscal year 2026 exceeded expectations, and it expects higher revenue in Q1 of fiscal year 2027 [13]. - Henan Province plans to promote large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle replacements and 5 million household appliance replacements by the end of 2026 [13]. - SpaceX may conduct an IPO in June with a valuation of over $1.5 trillion, and Blue Arrow Aerospace plans to conduct a recovery test of the reusable rocket Zhuque - 3 in Q2 [13][14]. - The US will impose countervailing duties on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos, and the CME Group had a technical failure [14]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to be optimistic about the performance of small - and medium - cap index futures, and pay attention to liquidity support. After the holiday, the IC index is likely to perform better than the IH index due to the active market trading and rising risk appetite [16][17]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to use a band - trading approach as the short - term odds are insufficient. The bond market weakened after the release of the "Shanghai Seven Articles", and the yield may face resistance to further decline without interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the incremental policies in the government work report [18]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - In the spot market, the steel order situation is mixed, and the high inventory after the holiday may suppress prices. In the short term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. The short - position of iron ore at a high level can be partially closed, and the short - position can be held lightly [20]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover quickly, while the demand will recover slowly. The supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose [22]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - After entering March, seasonal maintenance will be carried out, which may repair the losses of the semi - coke industry. It is recommended to hold a long - position in ferrosilicon [23]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, the strategy is to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [25]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - In the short term, copper prices may oscillate bullishly due to a slight decrease in tariffs, but the increase in domestic social inventory will put pressure on prices. In the long term, the tight supply pattern of global copper mines will support the price center [27]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the demand is good, and the supply is disturbed, so the price will be bullish. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [28]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will oscillate in a wide range. The supply - demand situation of both is weak, and the market may be in a state of oscillation for a long time [29][30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Domestically, the market is bullish, focusing on the post - holiday demand recovery. Internationally, the cotton price is affected by the US tariff policy and the supply - demand situation in Brazil [32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The supply is seasonally abundant, and the replenishment demand has not started. The domestic sugar price follows the international price and oscillates at a low level [33]. 3.5.3 Eggs - After the holiday, the egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. The futures price will oscillate due to the weak spot price and the expected future price increase [35]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple products may show a bullish trend, and the futures price may also be bullish. The market will be in an oscillating state in the short term [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The futures price will oscillate bullishly in the short term, but the price increase will slow down due to the pressure of ground - stored grain and imported grains [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sales situation in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [39][40]. 3.5.7 Pigs - After the holiday, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, so the spot price is likely to be weak. It is not recommended to short the near - month futures contract [41]. 3.6 Energy - Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The oil price is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited in the short term [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [45]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure, but the unstable situation in the Middle East provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [45]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - Do not chase the rise blindly. There is still room for a decline in the short term, and the RU - BR spread may weaken after March [48]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has improved slightly. Pay attention to the port inventory and the supply from Iran. The price may be weak in the short term, but do not be overly bearish [49]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures will oscillate. The price is affected by the downstream demand, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, and the futures - spot price difference [50]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price, and the increase is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. 3.6.8 PVC - PVC may oscillate bullishly in the short term, but the core supply - demand contradiction has not been improved. Be cautious about the long - term price trend [52][53]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price mainly follows the oil price adjustment. Consider the opportunity of positive arbitrage between May and September for PX and PTA [54]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The near - month and far - month contracts of LPG show different trends. The far - month contract is expected to be weak if the geopolitical conflict does not intensify [55]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The pulp price will oscillate upward. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. 3.6.12 Logs - The price of logs is supported by the cost. Pay attention to the resumption of work in processing plants and the port inventory after the holiday [58]. 3.6.13 Urea - The urea futures price will oscillate in a wide range. The spot price is stable, and the futures market is affected by emotions [59].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 24 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/24 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铅 | 中证500股指期货 | 沥青 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 锌 | 沪深300股指期货 | 燃油 | | | | | 生猪 | 三十债 | 碳酸锂 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | 上证50股指期货 | 尿素 | | | 客服电话： | | PVC | 十债 | 烧碱 | | | | | 红枣 | 原油 | 对二甲苯 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 铁矿石 | 五债 | 塑料 | | | 公司网址： | | | 液化石油气 | 瓶片 | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 中证1000指数期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - **Eggs**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - **Corn**: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - **Red Dates**: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - **Pigs**: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - **Plastic**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - **Rubber**: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - **Methanol**: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - **Caustic Soda**: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - **Asphalt**: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - **PVC**: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - **Logs**: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - **Urea**: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 9 日 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/9 | 基于基本面研判 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | | | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 | 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 焦炭 | 原木 | 沥青 | | 研究咨询电话： | 焦煤 | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | 橡胶 | 原油 | 上证50股指期货 | 0531-81678626 | | | | 橡胶 | 多晶硅 | 苹果 | 客服电话： | 红枣 | 尿素 | 甲醇 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | 400-618-6767 | 生猪 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 公司网址： | PVC | 铜 | 液化石油气 | 二债 | www.ztqh.com | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: In the stock market, the short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks; in the bond market, the short - term rebound may continue, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning more accommodative [10][11]. - **Black Commodities**: The black commodity market will generally remain volatile. Steel will fluctuate in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Lithium carbonate prices may rise after a short - term correction; industrial silicon will run with an upward limit due to pessimistic expectations; polysilicon will continue to fluctuate under strict supervision [21][22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level and strong consolidation phase; domestic sugar is under pressure; egg prices may decline after the peak of pre - festival stocking; apple prices may be strong; corn prices have large differences in the market; jujube prices will be weak and volatile; hog prices will see a fierce spot - market game [25][28][31][33][34][35][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks; fuel oil prices follow crude oil; plastics may have a limited rebound; rubber has support; synthetic rubber is expected to be strong; methanol's fundamentals are improving; caustic soda is bearish; asphalt prices follow crude oil; PVC has a risk of correction; the polyester industry chain is supported by cost; LPG is strong in the short term; pulp will fluctuate; logs are expected to be strong; urea is in a strong and volatile state [38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the UK have reached a series of positive outcomes, including the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership, the establishment of a financial working group, and a reduction in whisky import tariffs [6]. - SpaceX and xAI are in talks to merge for an IPO [6]. - China has released a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [6]. - There is a possibility of a new round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [6]. - China's Spring Festival cultural and tourism consumption month has started, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption events and over 360 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. - The photovoltaic industry needs to "anti - involute" and return to rational development [7]. - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q4 2025 was 3.06%, and Shanghai has extended the personal housing property tax pilot policy [7]. - The US trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month [7]. - South Africa is considering imposing a 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to trade in a narrow range. The short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks due to the strong performance of liquor and real - estate stocks [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has improved, and the short - term rebound may continue. The central bank's MLF operation in January has increased, indicating a shift to a looser monetary policy [11]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Macro policies meet market expectations, and there is little possibility of new policies. Steel production is less likely to be affected by policies. Steel inventories are increasing slightly, and the fundamentals are acceptable, but there is a risk of long - term accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. The black market will generally remain volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, domestic mine production will be restricted. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction may improve, which may support spot prices [16]. Ferroalloys - There is still a small supply gap in ferrosilicon before the daily production in the main production areas increases significantly. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and not to enter new positions unilaterally [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda - ash and glass industry chain follows the market atmosphere. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and new production capacity is expected to increase. The glass market has expectations of both cold repair and restart of production lines. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the growth of demand and supply - side disturbances, the price center of lithium carbonate may rise after a short - term correction, and it will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [21]. Industrial Silicon - The current situation has improved, and it will run strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by pessimistic expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound [22]. Polysilicon - Under strict regulatory restrictions, the market will continue to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry will continue, and the inventory reduction expectation in the first quarter is improving, but the high inventory still suppresses the upside [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply surplus, but the expected reduction of long - term supply and the contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and declining production may keep Zhengzhou cotton in a high - level and strong consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade in the short term [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is under pressure from both external and domestic supply. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - festival stocking of eggs may peak and then decline. The spot price may fall, and the futures contract for the post - festival off - season is under pressure, but the downside is also limited [31]. Apples - The apple market may run strongly. The pre - festival stocking is ongoing, and the high - quality apple prices will remain firm, while the prices of ordinary and low - quality apples may be under pressure [33]. Corn - The market has large differences. The short - term price is supported by pre - festival replenishment, but the upside is limited. It is necessary to focus on the concentrated selling in March and the opportunity to go long on dips in the far - month contracts [34]. Jujubes - The jujube market will maintain a weak and volatile state. The new - season jujubes have advantages in price and quality, and the sales in the off - season are okay, but the overall demand is expected to remain stable [35]. Hogs - The hog market has both increasing supply and demand, and the spot - market game is fierce. It is necessary to focus on the impact of weight reduction before the festival on the spot price. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contracts on rallies [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continues, and the supply surplus problem is still severe. Geopolitical risks are high, and there is a risk of short - term market fluctuations [38]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will follow crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the inventory is at a high level [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. Although the upstream is in heavy losses, which may support the price, the new production capacity will limit the rebound space, and there is a risk of correction [40]. Rubber - The pre - festival replenishment by downstream enterprises and the upcoming shutdown of overseas production areas support the price. It is recommended to close out the profitable positions of shorting out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [41]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to be strong due to the tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [42]. Methanol - The fundamentals of methanol are improving in the long term, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short term and consider going long after the inventory at the port decreases smoothly [43][44]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda industry has high production and inventory. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is poor, and there is a possibility of production reduction. It is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Asphalt - The asphalt price will follow crude oil prices and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of raw - material discounts and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase [46]. PVC - The previous rise of PVC was driven by the expectation of capacity reduction and the improvement of export fundamentals. However, the core supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and there is a risk of correction. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limits the downside. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between 5 - and 9 - month contracts [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is supported by the high import cost due to geopolitical issues. In the short term, it can run strongly, but in the long term, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected decline in demand [50]. Pulp - The pulp market has a large intraday fluctuation. The spot - market trading sentiment has weakened, but the price is still supported by the stable fundamentals and the expected increase in the overseas price. It is recommended to go long on dips if the downstream purchasing intention improves [51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The product price has risen due to the increase in raw - material costs. The market is expected to maintain a supply - demand balance, and the price may fluctuate strongly [52]. Urea - The urea futures market is expected to be strong and volatile. The spot - market price has risen, and the futures price is affected by other commodities. It is necessary to focus on the improvement of spot - market liquidity [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures market needs to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes; the bond market's ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. In the black sector, the overall situation is volatile, with steel products oscillating and iron ore being relatively weak. In the energy - chemical sector, the price of energy products is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relations [15][16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Index Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Different futures varieties have different trend judgments, such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 for various commodities like烧碱, 二债, 上证50股指期货, etc. [4] - **Based on Quantitative Index Judgments**: There are also trend judgments for different varieties based on quantitative indicators, including偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for commodities like豆二, 豆一, 甲醇, etc. [6] 2. Macro News - **International Trade Tensions**: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [8]. - **Financial Policy**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies to maintain financial stability. The central bank's deputy governor supports measures to increase the scale of RMB business in Hong Kong [8][10]. - **Market Fluctuations**: The precious metal market experiences significant fluctuations. The exchange takes measures to cool down the commodity futures market. Some companies have important developments, such as Alibaba releasing a new AI model and a large - scale financing in the AI unicorn [8][9]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs focuses on stabilizing beef production and milk industry relief. Tianjin optimizes housing provident fund management [10]. - **Space and Technology**: A company plans to build a space computing power network. Tencent has its own AI strategy. Humanoid robots will appear on the Spring Festival Gala [11]. - **US Government Situation**: The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January soars. The US durable goods orders in November 2025 show significant growth [11][12]. - **Hong Kong and OPEC+**: Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold trading system. OPEC+ is expected to continue the current production policy [13]. 3. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market fluctuates downward. The style of the market is being repaired, but there is still pressure on weighted stocks. The strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. The central bank's MLF operation increases, and the monetary policy is turning loose. However, the money market is still relatively expensive [16]. 4. Black Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: From a policy perspective, the production of the steel industry is less likely to be interfered with. Fundamentally, steel stocks increase slightly, and the fundamentals are okay. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is in a volatile situation. Steel products oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support the spot price [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price center of silicon - based ferroalloys is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices in the medium - term and hold short positions on silicomanganese [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market atmosphere is easing. It is recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes [22]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases. It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter the market with short positions as precious metals may fall back and drive down the non - ferrous sector [24]. - **Lead**: The social inventory of lead increases. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. The lead consumption market is in a downturn, and the supply is relatively tight in some areas [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may rise after a short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the possible resumption of production of mines and the impact on downstream demand [28]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but is under pressure in the long - term. Polysilicon is in a volatile state, waiting for policy guidance [29][30]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is in a short - term consolidation state. The long - term supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to trade in the low - price range [34]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken. The futures price has limited upward space, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [35]. - **Apples**: The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price of high - quality goods remains firm, and the price of ordinary goods is under pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The corn market has large differences in the market. It is recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading [39]. - **Red Dates**: The red date market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of the pig market both increase, and the spot market has intense competition. Attention should be paid to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price [41]. 7. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the supply is in surplus. There is a high geopolitical premium, and short - term market fluctuations should be noted [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the focus is on the geopolitical situation [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure. The upstream is in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space [45]. - **Rubber**: Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas may support the price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply and demand of synthetic rubber are stable and increasing. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the expectation of good fundamentals of butadiene [47]. - **Methanol**: The short - term supply and demand situation of methanol has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. In the long - term, the fundamentals are getting better, but attention should be paid to the arrival of imported goods [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market of caustic soda is bearish, but the far - month futures contract shows a strong trend [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term market is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG is strong in the short - term, supported by import costs. However, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp market has a lot of long - short games. The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the price may oscillate. If the commodity sentiment improves, it may be oscillating strongly [56]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs are oscillating strongly, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly with the improvement of commodity sentiment [56]. - **Urea**: The urea futures market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the spot market liquidity [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend of short - selling (synthetic rubber), some are in a state of oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and some are in a trend of long - buying. Based on quantitative indicators, some commodities are judged to have a downward trend, some are in an oscillating state, and some are in an upward trend [2][4]. - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures suggest short - term operation focusing on volume and price and considering profit - taking. The bond futures should be considered from an oscillating perspective [10][11]. - In the black sector, steel products may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and for ferroalloys, it is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [13][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. For lead, it is also recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate may be in a weak oscillating state in the short term. Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [20][24][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton is in a short - term consolidation state and short - term trading is recommended. Sugar is in a state of oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended. For eggs, the 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. Apples may have a strong trend on the futures market. Corn should be traded short - term, focusing on port collection. Jujubes are expected to oscillate, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. For live pigs, it is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [28][30][32][34][36][37][38]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil may turn weak. Plastics should be considered from a weak oscillating perspective. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. Methanol may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered for far - month contracts after the correction. Caustic soda should be considered from a short - selling perspective. The polyester industry chain is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered in the short term. LPG may have short - term upward momentum but limited long - term upside space. Pulp and logs are expected to oscillate. Urea futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [41][42][43][45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industries above the designated size increased by 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2%. The population decreased by 339,000 in 2025 [6]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In the second - hand housing market, prices in all 70 cities fell month - on - month. In the new housing market, Shanghai was the only first - tier city with both month - on - month and year - on - year price increases [6]. - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts for China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan [8]. 3.2 Macro - finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the A - share market oscillated with a shrinking volume, and the main indices showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points. The trading volume was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. If the recent trend does not form a reverse - enveloping negative line with increased volume, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [10]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and slightly loose near the tax payment period. The short - end is supported by the money market, while the ultra - long - end is weak. After the structural interest - rate cut, the short - term possibility of an interest - rate cut has decreased significantly, but the long - term easing expectation has been repaired. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy [11][12]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, macro - policies such as interest - rate cuts are slightly positive, but have limited short - term impact on demand. From a fundamental perspective, steel is in a de - stocking state, and the current order situation is okay. However, downstream demand is still weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. In general, steel may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak [13]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Recently, coal mine production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. Mainstream coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. In the short term, double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate, and the impact of coal mine production, safety inspections, downstream procurement, and changes in molten iron production should be noted [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The black market sentiment is weak, and double - silicon is operating weakly. However, the medium - term price fluctuation center is still rising slightly. It is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Recently, the supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and the market expects new production capacity to be put into operation. The market has a stronger expectation of glass production line restart. It is recommended to wait and see at present [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - As of January 19, the domestic zinc inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. The main reasons for the price decline are the expectation of inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the fading of macro - positive factors [20][21]. 3.4.2 Lead - As of January 19, the social inventory of lead ingots rose to a nearly two - month high. It is recommended to wait and see. The weak consumption and the increase in inventory due to transportation problems are the main factors affecting the price [21][23]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Under strong supervision, the market sentiment has declined, and lithium carbonate is expected to operate in a weak oscillating state in the short term. The market needs data to verify the actual demand and guide the price [24]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, and the improvement measures on January 20 should be awaited [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and the decline in production start - up has led to a short - term consolidation of Zheng cotton. Short - term trading is recommended [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. Zheng sugar is oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg - stocking intensity may peak and then weaken, and the pre - festival spot price may weaken. The 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. The far - month contracts may be expected to weaken due to the increase in replenishment enthusiasm [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The apple futures market may be strong. The current market is in a game between "supply support" and "demand restraint". The price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The corn futures market has large differences in views. It is recommended to focus on port collection and conduct short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and the key observation point is the concentrated release of grain sales in March [36]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujubes are expected to oscillate. The market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored, and attention should be paid to the changes in the sales area's sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - side slaughter progress is slow, and the short - term spot price is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Frequent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have supported the rise in crude oil prices, but recently, the panic has subsided, and the oil price has weakened. The supply surplus problem is still severe, and the market may return to fundamental trading. The Iranian situation needs to be closely monitored [41]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to consider a weak oscillating strategy and beware of callback risks [42]. 3.6.3 Rubber - Affected by the decline in overseas raw material prices and inventory accumulation, the rubber market has weakened. However, pre - festival downstream replenishment and the approaching of the overseas production area's shutdown season may support the market. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [42]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. It is advisable to stop losses and wait and see when the short - selling price drops to a low level [43]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and short - term de - stocking is smooth. However, there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving. It is advisable to wait for the far - month contracts to adjust and then consider long positions [43][44]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry has a high start - up rate and high inventory. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is okay, so there is no motivation to cut production. It is recommended to consider a short - selling strategy [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to the weakening demand. In the short term, short - selling on rallies can be considered, and in the medium term, positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [46]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG has fallen after rising, affected by the easing of crude oil and geopolitical conflicts, but the price center has still moved up. In the short term, it has upward momentum, but the long - term upside space is limited. Light - position short - selling can be considered [47]. 3.6.9 Pulp - As downstream replenishment ends, the pulp market has weakened. However, the strong overseas prices and the relatively stable fundamentals provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [51]. 3.6.11 Urea - In the short term, the spot market for urea has weakened, but the futures market still has strong expectations. The futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach [14][15]. - **Black commodities**: Steel products may oscillate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies; coking coal and coke prices may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the upside is limited; for ferroalloys, manganese ore is strong in the short term, and silicon iron can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash and glass, observe soda ash, and hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [16][18][19][20][21]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For zinc, observe and keep existing short positions; for lead, observe; lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly; industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [22][24][26][27]. - **Agricultural products**: Cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage; sugar may oscillate and consolidate; for eggs, adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts; apples may be strong; corn may oscillate within a range; jujubes may oscillate; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [31][33][36][39][40][41][42]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil may weaken; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; plastics may oscillate; rubber may oscillate, and short - buy on dips; synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term; methanol may have a short - term correction, and long - buy far - month contracts on dips; caustic soda should be shorted; asphalt may oscillate within a range; the polyester industry chain may be under pressure, and short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term; LPG may have short - term rebound momentum but limited long - term upside; pulp may oscillate; logs may oscillate; urea futures may be strong due to expectations [45][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][56][57][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a meeting to promote consumption and address issues such as arrears to enterprises and migrant workers' wages [7]. - The CSRC emphasized market stability and strengthened supervision [7]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [7]. - China and Canada reached a consensus on economic and trade cooperation, and Canada will give China an EV quota [8]. - The CSRC solicited opinions on the derivatives trading supervision regulations [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed large - scale urban renewal investment [8]. - China developed a high - energy hydrogen ion implanter [9]. - Two rocket launches failed [9]. - Xidian University made achievements in radar antennas and chip heat dissipation [9][10]. - The US is about to withdraw from the WHO but owes dues [10]. - The US may impose high tariffs on South Korean memory chip manufacturers [10]. - The first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived in China [10]. - Nvidia revised data on copper demand in data centers [11]. - Trump's statement affected the Fed chair speculation [12]. - The US sent a message to Iran [12]. - Barclays analysts predicted US corporate bond issuance [12]. - The SHFE adjusted trading limits for silver and nickel futures [12]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Friday, the A - share market opened high and closed low. Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking. If there is no further increase in volume and an inverted hammer line, the index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose, and bond yields are steep. Adopt an oscillatory approach, with the main focus on the money market, risk appetite, and the pace of allocation funds [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Macro - policies are slightly positive for the steel industry. Steel is in a de - stocking state, with acceptable orders in the short term. Real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, while coil demand is good. Steel may oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions. Coke has started the first price increase. In the short term, there is a chance for a price rebound, but the upside is limited due to the pressure on steel industry profits [19]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore is strong in the short term, but it is difficult to transfer profits downstream. Silicon iron has no significant fundamental changes, and it can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. Observe soda ash. Glass may improve its supply - demand situation if production cuts are implemented. Hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increased slightly. The price of zinc futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe and keep existing short positions [22][23]. 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories increased to a one - and - a - half - month high. The price of lead futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe [24][25]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term increase driven by export expectations, the price of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly due to weak vehicle demand and macro - sentiment adjustment [26]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, with pressure on the upside. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, waiting for the improvement plan on January 20 [27][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton supply is currently loose, but there are expectations of supply reduction in the long term. Zhengzhou cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage [31][32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar market has a surplus. Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate and consolidate [33][34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for eggs may peak and then weaken. Adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts [36][37][38]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. Observe the consumption during the Spring Festival stocking period [39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices may oscillate within a range. The key is the change in farmers' selling sentiment. Observe the port collection and the potential selling pressure in March [40]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may oscillate. Observe the market performance during the consumption peak season [41][42]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is slow, and the price may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Short near - month contracts on rallies [42][43]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support oil prices, but the supply surplus is still severe. Oil prices may weaken if the geopolitical situation eases [45]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, with the focus on the geopolitical situation in Iran. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved [47]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small rebound. Adopt an oscillatory approach [48][49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber may oscillate, with cost support. Look for short - buying opportunities on dips [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term. Take profits on short positions on dips [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. Long - buy far - month contracts on dips [52]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. Adopt a short - selling approach [53]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices may oscillate within a range, and the winter - storage period has temporarily stabilized [54][55]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations. Short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term [56]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices may have short - term rebound momentum due to cost and demand support, but the long - term upside is limited. Lightly short - sell [57]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may oscillate due to weakening downstream demand and new warehouse receipts. Observe the international situation and macro factors [57][58]. 3.6.12 Logs - Log prices may oscillate, with the market in a weak supply - demand balance [59]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea futures are supported by expectations, but the spot market is weakening. Observe the improvement of spot market liquidity [59].