以下文章来源于暗涌Waves ，作者何愚 暗涌Waves . 钱的流向，人的沉浮。36氪旗下投资报道账号。 "不仅关于消费或投资。" 文 ｜ 黑蚁资本 何愚 来源｜ 暗涌Waves（ID：waves36kr） 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 2026年的1/12即将走完，"暗涌Waves"的"2025尾声"仍在继续。对于中国人来说，农历春节未至，真正的一年似乎总还没走到尽头。有384天的漫长乙巳蛇年 还有两周有余也将收起它绵长的尾，这个新旧交替的时刻，有人想将中国社会长尾中真实的脉动带到人们眼前。 黑蚁资本创始合伙人何愚选择以一份"田野笔记"来参与"2025尾声"。 在这场跨年专题的参与者中，何愚是一个挺特别的存在。当一级市场的"主流"投资人沉浸在AI agent、具身智能的投资热潮里时，他和黑蚁资本的团队走到 了广东佛冈、湖南汨罗、河北安国等地的县镇街头，去发现一个个不在主流语境里的故事。 这也不是黑蚁资本第一次在县域的街头"扫街"了。2021年到2022年，团队就曾深入495个县域，带回了一份在创投圈引起不小反响的县域研究报告。 那为何在三年后重返？ 何愚告诉"暗涌Waves"，他的动机挺简单的：那个市场 ...

河南省政协委员、盒马鲜生公共事务总监路怡馨认为，当下，民众对消费过程、商品品质等有了更加多 元的要求，他们更期待健康、新鲜的商品，同时对悦己消费有更高需求。 近年来，深耕区域的大张等知名商超也在迭新消费新场景。河南省政协委员、河南大张实业有限公司总 经理张树一受访时表示，当前零售行业百花齐放，有竞争也更利于彼此学习、取长补短，最终利好消费 者，"譬如我们对老旧卖场调整升级，是为了让卖场更有烟火气，让顾客有更好的购物体验"。 如今，河南多地已在推广胖东来经验、打造胖东来式企业。许昌出台相关举措推广胖东来先进管理理念 和管理模式，形成一批可复制的"许昌经验"；新乡则明确以胖东来现象级商业体为流量引擎，创新打 造"文旅+商业"融合消费生态。 在26日举行的河南省十四届人大四次会议上，政府工作报告提到，"胖东来、蜜雪冰城、锅圈食汇等一 批新锐企业向新而生""推广胖东来经验，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景"。此前，2024年 河南省政府工作报告提到，支持胖东来等流量商超发展；2025年河南省政府工作报告提到，"胖东来"频 频出圈，被网友称为"没有淡季的6A级景区"。 近些年，胖东来火爆出圈后，为当地消费市场注入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of service consumption-related policies on investment opportunities [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -7.7%, while the relative performance is -6.9% [3]. Weekly Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a rise of 1.80%, and the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62% [8]. - Notable performers in the sector included SF City with a 34.27% increase and Jiuhua Tourism with a 10.89% increase [5]. Important Announcements - Beijing Human Resources reported a planned reduction of 1.698 million shares by a shareholder, amounting to 313 million yuan, reducing their stake to 5.8% [31]. - Guilin Tourism expects to turn a profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 11 million yuan, driven by a 10% increase in tourist numbers [31]. - Jinling Hotel anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.37% to 90.93% [31].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxia (513230) showing a slight decline. Stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, TCL Electronics, and Mijue Group saw notable gains, while stocks like Master Kong Holdings and Li Ning faced significant losses [1] - The highly anticipated Honor 500 Pro MOLLY 20th Anniversary Limited Edition was launched on January 25, generating excitement in both the digital and trendy toy markets. The product sold out quickly both online and in physical stores, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - CICC's report highlighted the recent success of Pop Mart's new products, including the PUCKY Knock Knock series and other plush accessories, showcasing the company's innovation capabilities supported by a mature R&D mechanism and direct customer system [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities predicts that the emotional consumption trend will continue to thrive in 2026, particularly among Generation Z consumers who are increasingly willing to spend on both products and emotional experiences. Service-oriented consumption is expected to play a crucial role in driving domestic demand [2] - The policy environment continues to emphasize the potential of service consumption, with sectors such as elderly care, childcare, tourism, and duty-free shopping showing strong growth, particularly in 2025 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxia (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading consumer stocks across various sectors, including Pop Mart, Yum China, Anta Sports, Nongfu Spring, and Mijue Ice City [2]

Core Insights - Chinese brands are rapidly expanding their presence in global markets, showcasing a shift from previous challenges to a new era of growth and innovation [4][5][6] Group 1: Market Expansion - Chinese brands are increasingly establishing physical stores and local operations in various countries, enhancing brand recognition and local engagement [12] - The market share of Chinese automotive brands in Kazakhstan has surged from approximately 2% in 2020 to 34.5% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a significant increase in their presence [7] - Chinese tea brands have successfully entered the U.S. market, with several brands expanding their operations internationally, including Southeast Asia and Europe [7] Group 2: Brand Perception and Consumer Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer attitudes towards Chinese products, particularly among younger demographics in the U.S., who are increasingly embracing Chinese technology and brands [6] - The global trust index for Chinese brands has significantly improved over the past six years, reflecting a growing acceptance and recognition of their quality and innovation [9] - Chinese brands are not only competing on price but are also focusing on quality and creativity, challenging the previous perceptions of low-quality Chinese products [10] Group 3: Innovation and Cultural Influence - Innovation is a key driver for the success of Chinese brands, with many companies emphasizing their cultural roots and unique product offerings [10][11] - The rise of Chinese brands is accompanied by a cultural wave that is reshaping global perceptions of China, with the country becoming a center for trends and creativity [14][15] - The transition from merely selling products to building ecosystems marks a significant evolution in the strategy of Chinese brands in the global market [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the chain tea beverage industry, marking it as the first rating for this sector [1]. Core Insights - The market for ready-to-drink beverages is expected to grow significantly due to increased consumption frequency, with a projected market size of approximately 380 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.6% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is being reshaped by supply chain advantages and product quality, leading to a consolidation of market share among leading brands [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Growth in the Later Stage, Driven by Increased Consumption Frequency - The consumption frequency of ready-to-drink beverages is rising, driven by an expansion of consumption scenarios, including shopping, work, and leisure activities [11][14]. - The market size is projected to grow as the average annual consumption frequency is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% from 2024 to 2026, with the market size reaching 380 billion yuan by 2026 [2][18][22]. - The total number of tea beverage stores is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down, indicating a transition into the later stage of industry growth [24][27]. 2. Supply Chain and Product Power Reshape Competitive Landscape, Strengthening Leading Brands - Leading brands are experiencing steady growth in store numbers and operational efficiency due to their supply chain and product advantages, while smaller brands are being squeezed out due to insufficient supply chain capabilities [3][29]. - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the share of stores held by brands with over 10,000 locations rising from 3% in early 2021 to 10.4% by late 2025 [29][30]. - The competitive dynamics vary by price segment, with high-end brands like Bawang Chaji consolidating their market position, while mid-range segments face intense competition [41][47]. 3. Scale Procurement and Efficient Distribution Create Cost and Quality Barriers - Leading brands leverage scale procurement to establish cost advantages and mitigate risks, while also ensuring product differentiation through deep integration with suppliers [3][38]. - Efficient distribution networks, including cold chain logistics, help maintain product freshness and further enhance cost advantages for leading brands [3][38]. 4. Key Company Analysis: Scale Effects and Store Optimization Drive Leading Brands - Miexue Ice City is expanding aggressively, with over 40,000 stores by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% [47][50]. - Guming is also showing robust growth, with a projected 13,000 stores by 2025, reflecting a 33% increase [31][36]. - Other brands like Chabaidao and Hushang Ayi are optimizing their store networks to improve efficiency and profitability [41][46].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is witnessing diverse trends such as the emergence of fresh food restaurants, smart products, and health management, indicating a shift towards quality consumption and lifestyle changes [2] - The 2025 consumption landscape in China is being reshaped by trends like the rise of night economy, health-oriented products, and the popularity of new Chinese-style beverages [4] - Local brands are gaining traction in the ready-to-drink coffee market, with significant sales growth driven by competitive pricing and innovative product offerings [4] Industry Environment - The pet economy is evolving, with a projected market size exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2024, driven by younger consumers seeking quality and diverse pet-related services [2] - The baking market in China has expanded to 365,000 stores, with a notable increase in health-conscious and visually appealing products, alongside a rise in pet baking [2] - The ready-to-drink coffee market is experiencing a transformation, with local brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng gaining market share through affordable pricing and innovative flavors [4] - The new dietary guidelines in the U.S. emphasize protein and healthy fats while reducing sugar intake, reflecting a global trend towards healthier food options [5] - The rise of community bakeries is characterized by personalized service and community engagement, proving that small stores can compete effectively [7] - New Chinese-style health drinks are gaining popularity, with a market potential reaching billions, driven by the demand for convenient health solutions [8] - The condiment industry is seeing a split between leading brands and those struggling to keep up, with a focus on health-oriented product innovation [8] - The takeaway market is evolving into a competitive landscape, with platforms like Meituan and Alibaba expanding into instant retail [9] - The no-sugar beverage market in China is expected to double in size within five years, driven by increasing health awareness [14] - The rise of new health-oriented food products is appealing to younger consumers, with a focus on traditional ingredients and health benefits [15] Top Brand News - The acquisition of yogurt brand Suan Nai Kuan Kuan by Mo Yogurt reflects the ongoing consolidation in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [16] - Yili Group is actively engaging in capital operations, including debt repayment and establishing investment subsidiaries to seek growth opportunities [16] - Huablin Group is revitalizing its War Horse brand to compete with Dongpeng, launching new sugar-free products to cater to health-conscious consumers [17] - New retail formats combining supermarkets, markets, and restaurants are emerging in Shanghai, showcasing a shift in consumer preferences and supply chain integration [17] - The collaboration between Lynk & Co and Starbucks highlights innovative marketing strategies aimed at enhancing customer engagement [19] - Gu Ming has exceeded its expansion goals, planning to open 4,000 new stores in 2026, focusing on supply chain efficiency and product diversification [19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving consumer sentiment towards authenticity and emotional value in the market, highlighting a shift from superficial branding to genuine, relatable experiences [1][2][3] Group 1: Brand Expression and Authenticity - The trend of "humanized" brand expression is emerging, where real dialogue replaces scripted marketing, with founders and employees becoming vital carriers of brand values [1][4][5] - Consumers are increasingly discerning, able to differentiate between brands that genuinely believe in their values and those that merely use them for marketing purposes, as illustrated by the backlash against brands like "始祖鸟" [4][5] - The rise of social media platforms allows founders to engage directly with consumers, fostering a sense of community and trust [5][7] Group 2: Local Cultural Renaissance - There is a resurgence of local flavors and cultural heritage, with consumers seeking experiential tourism and local products, as evidenced by a 1493% increase in searches for "贵州深度游" [11][14] - The concept of "bistro" has been localized in China, leading to the emergence of various regional bistros that cater to consumer preferences for local cuisine [12][14] - Local cultural elements are being integrated into mainstream commercial settings, enhancing the value of local products and crafts [16] Group 3: Return to Offline Experiences - The trend of returning to offline experiences is driven by a desire for social interaction and immersive experiences, with events like concerts and pop-up activities gaining popularity [17][18] - Brands are increasingly opening flagship stores that offer unique experiences, moving beyond traditional retail to create engaging environments [18][20] - The shift back to offline is also a response to the saturation of online content and the need for differentiated experiences that cannot be replicated online [22] Group 4: Non-standard Commercialization and Community Business - The non-standard commercial sector is facing challenges, with discussions around its sustainability and the need for unique, engaging experiences to attract consumers [23][24] - Successful non-standard commercial ventures often rely on tourism and local cultural appeal, as seen in cities like Bangkok [24][26] - Community-oriented businesses are emerging as a bright spot in the market, focusing on stable user bases and localized offerings [30][31] Group 5: Opportunities for Small Brands - The current market environment presents opportunities for small and medium-sized brands to thrive by focusing on differentiation and emotional value [31] - The rise of niche brands that cater to specific consumer interests and preferences is expected, as consumers increasingly seek personalized and authentic experiences [31]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of public relations (PR) in consumer goods companies has surpassed that of direct advertising spending, as neglecting PR can lead to severe brand crises and losses [6][9][32] Group 1: The Shift in Consumer Goods Management - Many consumer goods executives believe that having a good product is sufficient, but this mindset is outdated in the current media environment [2][4] - Companies face rapid backlash from the public due to minor issues, such as packaging or labor disputes, which can lead to significant financial losses [5][9] - The lack of respect for public opinion and inadequate communication strategies can result in catastrophic consequences for brands [5][9] Group 2: Financial Implications of PR - A budget of 10 million yuan in advertising may yield 100 million yuan in gross merchandise value (GMV), but a PR crisis can incur losses far exceeding that amount [7][9] - Direct sales losses from a crisis can include returns, consumer boycotts, and platform delistings, while indirect losses can affect brand trust and employee morale [9] - Investing in PR builds long-term consumer trust, which is more valuable than short-term advertising gains [9][10] Group 3: Media Relations and Budgeting - Many executives mistakenly view media spending as a form of extortion rather than a necessary investment for professional services [10][13] - Proper media investment should focus on reputable outlets that provide in-depth analysis and have a strong audience trust [13][20] - Establishing good relationships with influential media can be crucial during a crisis, as they are more likely to provide fair coverage [22][30] Group 4: The Role of Content in Crisis Management - Long-form media, such as articles on public platforms, can provide deeper analysis and context during crises, unlike short videos that may oversimplify issues [14][15] - Companies should balance their media strategies by using short videos for daily engagement while relying on in-depth articles for brand building and crisis management [16] Group 5: Building Relationships Before Crises - Companies often prioritize immediate sales over building long-term media relationships, which can leave them vulnerable during crises [18][20] - Establishing genuine connections with media and KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) is essential for effective crisis management [25][26] - Companies should invest time and resources in nurturing these relationships to ensure support during challenging times [21][26] Group 6: Leadership's Role in PR - The involvement of company leadership in PR is critical for understanding media dynamics and ensuring that PR is prioritized within the organization [28][30] - Leaders should elevate PR to a strategic priority, enabling quick decision-making during crises and fostering a culture of awareness among all employees [30][31] - Every employee's actions can impact the brand's reputation, making it essential for leadership to instill a collective responsibility for public relations [31]