再论中国肉牛： 当前市场的三个共识与三个分歧 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 28 日│中国内地 深度研究 证券研究报告 必选消费 继我们 2025 年 8 月《肉牛步入上行周期，奶肉共振弹性可期》深度报告后， 本篇报告我们再次梳理肉牛及原奶行业最新近况，回答当前市场关于肉奶双 周期的核心共识与主要分歧。共识层面，全球肉牛供给共振收缩并启动价格 上行周期；26 年中国国内肉牛价格或迎加速上行期；奶肉共振将推动中国 上游牧业盈利修复。分歧层面，我们认为，配额结构性错配将强化中长期供 给收缩主线，供给端刚性约束力度超需求端软约束，中性情景下 28 年国内 牛肉价格有望回归上一轮周期高点（2022 年）。 共识：海外+国内肉牛或同步进入价格上行周期，牧业龙头有望受益 1）全球供给共振收缩，超级周期已启动。20-24 年美国/巴西/阿根廷/乌拉 圭等主产区先后遭遇干旱冲击，叠加中国牛肉进口增速放缓的需求压力，全 球主要产国均集中屠宰能繁母牛以缓解经营困境；受肉牛 2.5 年天然繁育周 期影响，供给缺口已于 25 年初步显现，多地活牛价格已上行。 2）26 年或是中国肉牛价格的加速上行期。预计生物资产周期滞后性、全球 ...

【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 随着天气逐步转暖以及南方补栏需求的提升，节后价格有望快速上涨。 中期来看行业产能去化幅度巨大，牛价有望破历史新高，看好肉奶共振的牧业大周期。 #重点推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧等，以及关注受益的紫燕食品、光明肉业等。 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40 【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40元/公斤左右， ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and Yurun Agriculture, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the month-on-month cost indices for six categories of consumer goods are predominantly declining, while futures indices are mostly increasing, reflecting a mixed cost environment [34]. - The overall trend shows that year-on-year cost indices remain low across various categories, indicating a challenging pricing environment for the industry [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 0.52% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.41%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -1.12% and -0.32%, respectively [35]. - Glass prices increased by 1.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, indicating volatility in raw material costs [35]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings increased by 0.06% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 2.14%. Year-to-date changes show a cumulative decline of -0.46% for spot and an increase of 3% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices rose significantly, with spot prices increasing by 1.62% month-on-month and 6.93% year-on-year [36]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products rose by 0.27% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.2% [37]. - Fresh milk prices remain stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 1.03% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.01%. Year-to-date changes show a cumulative decline of -1.12% for spot and an increase of 2.9% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices have shown a significant year-on-year decline, impacting overall cost structures [38]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.52% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.66%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.99% [39]. - Vegetable prices have shown a month-on-month decline of 5.1%, reflecting seasonal supply dynamics [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.28% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.54%. Year-to-date changes indicate a cumulative decline of -2.5% for spot indices [40]. - PET chip prices have decreased, contributing to the overall cost pressures in the soft drink sector [40].

随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损不断加深，存栏去化有望进一步深化，原奶产量随之实现下降。进口方面，国内大包粉仍有价格优 势，2026年进口量预计不会有显著增加。需求端看，乳制品产量已呈现边际改善，行业深加工产能即将 释放，出口大包粉及活牛的探索已逐渐落地，有望促进供需缺口进一步收窄。该行预计2026年奶价有望 实现企稳回升，届时上游牧场公司将直接受益。 全产业链龙头优势显著，肉奶价格共振有望贡献可观业绩弹性 开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国内牧场龙头，规模 优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保持增长。公司扩产 完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业绩弹性。该行预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国 内牧场龙头，规模优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保 持增长。公司扩产完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业 绩弹性。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、27.68亿元，EPS分别为-0.02、0.33、0.66 元，当前股价对应2026-2027年PE为13.1、6.5倍。 开源证券主要观点如下： 公司业绩弹性主要来自于原奶价格和肉牛价格的上涨，假设其他因素不变，经测算中性假设若行业奶价 上涨3.5%，公司毛利润实现增量4.6亿元，同时成母牛估值有望提升;若肉牛价格上涨10%，淘牛亏损将 收窄1.1亿元。 随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损 ...

2026 年 02 月 27 日 开源晨会 0227 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.842 | | 电子 | 1.981 | | 国防军工 | 1.515 | | 机械设备 | 1.410 | | 钢铁 | 1.326 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 房地产 | -2.247 | | 传媒 | -1.453 | | 非银金融 | -1.425 | | 商贸零售 | -1.221 | | 食品饮料 | -1.198 | 数据来源：聚源 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要 期-20260226 【金融工程】分钟主动资金流中的选股信息——开源量化评论（122）-20260225 行业公司 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 【通信】英伟达业绩超预期，坚定看好全球 AI 算力链——行业点评报告-20260226 【汽车】伯特利拟收购豫 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for various industries in March 2026, driven by domestic demand policies and sector-specific growth opportunities [2][3] - Key stocks recommended across different sectors are expected to show significant profit growth and favorable valuations, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][3] Industry Summaries Social Services - China Oriental Education is positioned to benefit from the growth in new service consumption, with a projected net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 40% increase and a PE ratio of approximately 11 times [2][3] Construction - Yaxin Integration is expected to gain from significant investments in the cleanroom industry, with orders and performance not fully anticipated, particularly from major clients like Micron and TSMC [2][3] Non-Bank Financials - CITIC Securities is recommended as a leading brokerage benefiting from market recovery and favorable policy environments, with valuations not reflecting the improving profit trends [2][3] Agriculture - Youran Dairy, a leader in dairy farming, is set to benefit from rising beef and milk prices, with expectations of high earnings recovery due to favorable market conditions [2][3] Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia is expanding its capacity in wind power gearbox projects, with a strong order backlog and projected profit growth of 55% in 2025 [2][3] - Sifang Co. is actively expanding its overseas presence and has secured multiple projects, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies like solid-state transformers [2][3] Automotive - Xingyu Co. is positioned in a high-growth segment of automotive lighting, with a focus on smart products and expanding its global customer base, projecting revenues of 16 billion yuan in 2025 [2][3] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is benefiting from domestic policies promoting appliance upgrades and is enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation, with a stable increase in market share [2][3] Basic Chemicals - Chuanheng Co. is expected to increase its phosphate mining capacity significantly by 2028, with a strong dividend payout history and high-quality product offerings [2][3] Military Industry - Lianchuang Optoelectronics is experiencing substantial growth in laser products and is entering the commercial space launch market, indicating a broad market potential [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that due to weak demand and rapid capacity expansion, the supply of consumer goods will exceed demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices from 2021 to 2025, negatively impacting prices, profits, and valuations. It is expected that some consumer goods prices may have bottomed out by 2025, with a potential upward trend starting in 2026 if demand improves. The report recommends focusing on the catering supply chain and the dairy industry chain [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The period from 2017 to 2022 saw rapid capital expenditure growth in consumer goods, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%. The years 2020 to 2025 are expected to be peak years for capacity expansion, resulting in significant supply increases. Demand has been weak since 2021, with restaurant demand growth slowing from double digits before 2020 to low single digits in recent years [2]. - The frozen food sector has seen slight volume growth but significant price declines. Despite a weak restaurant market, there is still potential for penetration growth in the frozen segment due to standardization and cost reduction. Major companies are experiencing a decline in net profit margins [2]. - In the seasoning sector, basic seasoning volumes have decreased slightly, while prices have also dropped. The demand for basic seasonings is under pressure due to weak restaurant performance, but the competitive landscape remains stable. The revenue of leading companies has also declined [3]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - By 2025, some consumer goods prices may have reached a temporary bottom, driven by supply-side improvements and terminal price dysfunction. An upward price cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with stronger price elasticity and sustainability if demand improves. The catering supply chain and dairy industry chain are highlighted for potential growth [4]. - In the catering supply chain, the "price" logic is beginning to play out, which may lead to simultaneous improvements in price, profit, and valuation. The frozen food industry is expected to see a bottoming out of supply, while the seasoning sector is projected to stabilize in terms of price and profit by 2025 [4]. - The dairy industry chain is characterized by the beef cycle and raw milk cycle, with a strong certainty of growth. It is expected that beef prices will continue to rise in 2026, improving profit margins, while raw milk prices may start to reflect upward trends in the second half of 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the catering supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen food companies like Anjijia, seasoning companies like Yihai International, and companies undergoing turnaround like Qianhe Flavor and Zhongju Gaoxin. Attention is also drawn to Baoli Food [6]. - In the dairy industry chain, the report suggests monitoring Youran Agriculture and recommends companies like Modern Farming, New Dairy, Yili, and Mengniu [6].

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]