丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 假期金属价格走强，看好节后配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 铜铝节后易涨难跌，重视板块机会。商品端，铜铝节后易涨难跌，中长期经济底部与逆全球化 促进供需结构优化，弹性可期：1）短期，美国对降息及铜关税态度，依然是短期工业金属价格 走势的主导因素，在二者并未发生根本性转变之前，维持铜铝趋势看涨判断，节后国内金三银 四旺季、中美会谈、联储主席换届等均构成催化；2）中期，美联储降息引领全球趋势宽松促进 铜铝周期上行；3）长期，逆全球化加剧各国对资源争夺，铜铝中枢趋势上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报 ...

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are Haotian International Investment (01341) at 71.99%, China Telecom (00728) at 71.35%, and Southern Hengsheng Technology (03033) at 69.01% [1][2] - The largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days were seen in the following companies: Yingfu Fund (02800) with an increase of 3.67 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with an increase of 3.60 billion, and Alibaba-W (09988) with an increase of 2.18 billion [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include Zijin Mining (02899) with a decrease of 578 million, Pop Mart (09992) with a decrease of 382 million, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) with a decrease of 338 million [1][3] Group 2 - The latest holding ratio rankings for Hong Kong Stock Connect show that Haotian International Investment has 7.99 billion shares, China Telecom has 9.90 billion shares, and Southern Hengsheng Technology has 10.41 billion shares [2] - The top ten companies with the largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days include Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with an increase of 2.17 billion and Meituan-W (03690) with an increase of 1.18 billion [2] - The top ten companies with the largest decreases in holdings also include WuXi Biologics (02269) with a decrease of 290 million and Jiangxi Copper (00358) with a decrease of 239 million [3]

马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 指数成分股中，伟志控股大涨13.79%，兆易创新（603986）涨11.91%，普达特科技涨10.91%，天岳先 进、澜起科技、华虹半导体等跟涨。 对于近期半导体板块走强的原因，中信建投（601066）证券机械首席分析师许光坦认为，主要受多重利 好共振推动：一方面，AI算力需求持续升温，全球半导体景气周期开启，带动设备及零部件需求增 长；另一方面，国内设备及零部件企业持续取得突破，市场对半导体国产化率提升的产能释放预期逐渐 升温。此外，部分龙头企业在高端零部件领域的量产进展也进一步提振了市场信心。 展望2026年，随着国内产业政策持续发力，叠加"反内卷"相关举措有望推动制造业盈利水平修复，行业 景气度或逐步回升，进而带动上游零部件设备整体需求稳步改善。在半导体设备、上游零部件国产化率 持续提升并加速推进的驱动下，半导体设备零部件板块有望迎来业绩与估值双升的"戴维斯双击"。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场 ...

从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

消息面上，中东局势持续紧张。据报道，特朗普倾向于在未来几天对伊朗发动首轮打击。若首轮打击效 果不佳，特朗普将考虑对伊朗发动更大规模袭击。卫星图像显示，美国在中东的战斗机数量激增。黄金 白银今日盘中同步拉升。现货黄金一度突破5150美元，涨1.20%；现货白银日内涨幅扩大至2.86%。 此外，多家大行上调黄金目标价。澳新银行预计，金价将在今年第二季度触及5800美元/盎司；杰富瑞 已将2026年黄金价格预测从4200美元上调至5000美元；瑞银则认为年中金价最高或触及6200美元/盎 司，主要支撑来自央行与投资需求、财政赤字扩大、美国实际利率下行以及地缘政治风险。 紫金矿业 紫金矿业 招金矿业 中国黄金国际 万国黄金集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 39.32 1.54 4.08% 4.66% 3.10% 1.56% 0.00% 1.56% 3.10% 4.66% 36.02 36.61 37.19 37.78 38.37 38.95 39.54 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 400万 800万 1201万 黄金股早盘集体高开，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916） ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "good start" on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with a total trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan, and over 4,000 stocks rising, indicating a positive market atmosphere [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.99% to 3,308.26 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index saw a rise of 1.36% [4] Sector Performance - Resource stocks, including oil, petrochemicals, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, led the market with significant gains, while the media and consumer sectors showed relative weakness [1][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw an increase of 5.53%, with 13 stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by international oil prices surpassing $80 per barrel [9][15] - The construction materials sector rose by 3.71%, with several stocks also reaching their daily limit up [11] - The basic chemicals sector increased by 3.45%, with multiple stocks experiencing significant gains [12] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.31%, with several stocks also hitting the daily limit up [13] Individual Stock Highlights - Notable individual stock performances included Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) rising by 4.33% to 554 yuan per share, and Tianfu Communication (300394) increasing by 12.65% to 351.01 yuan per share [5][14] - The CPO concept stocks, particularly the "Yizhongtian" combination, showed strong performance, with Runze Technology (300442) rising over 13% [5][14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is likely to continue a volatile upward trend post-holiday, with the nature and driving forces of the market expected to shift [3][17] - The upcoming National People's Congress is anticipated to influence market dynamics, with a focus on policy hotspots and rapid sector rotation [3][17] - Investors are advised to maintain moderate positions and focus on structural opportunities, particularly in resource and "anti-involution" sectors [19][20]

摘要 建筑业新签合同总额去年同比下降 6.6%至 31.5 万亿元，但八大央企市 占率逆势提升约 10 个百分点，达到 51%，上游材料商市占率提升可能 更为显著，行业正经历供给出清和业务重组。 尽管建筑总需求大幅增加难度大，但结构上"两栋"项目比例上升，利 好头部央国企及其合作的头部材料商。今年作为"十五"开局之年，重 大项目资金倾斜，专项债提前下达，施工工作量有望由负转正。 有色金属方面，春节期间海外金属价格普遍上涨，带动国内有色金属股 票走强。尽管美联储鹰派会议纪要压制贵金属价格，但伊朗局势紧张提 供上涨催化，有色板块短期调整后具备基本面支撑，能源金属标的值得 关注。 煤炭行业，印尼减产计划仍在落实，国内春节后淡季可能继续推进减产。 春节前价格倒挂导致海外进口煤减少，国内供应量下降。港口库存低于 去年同期，电厂、钢厂、焦化厂或面临补库行情，看好节后国内煤炭价 格上涨。 春节期间，多地试点国企收购存量商品房用于保障性租赁住房，新房市 场开发商推出优惠活动。重点城市二手房成交稳中有升，但需观察元宵 周期板块节后开工及行情展望 20260223 节后数据。地产板块总体仍需摸底，看好现金流稳健的商管类公司及基 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a positive start to the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% on February 24 [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.13% on the same day [2] - As of February 24, there were 8 A+H listed companies experiencing an AH price inversion, where H-share prices exceeded A-share prices, representing approximately 4.6% of the total 174 A+H listed companies [3] Group 2 - The companies with AH price inversion include leading firms across various sectors such as new energy, banking, innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, home appliances, mining, and machinery [4] - The phenomenon of AH price inversion is relatively rare, with no companies experiencing it a year ago on February 24, 2025 [2][4] - The average AH premium rate is typically around 125%, considering the 20% dividend tax on H-shares and the tax exemption for A-shares held for over a year [5] Group 3 - On February 24, the trading volume of A-shares for China Merchants Bank was 75.47 million shares, which is 7.7 times that of its H-shares at 9.8 million shares [5] - The market capitalization of China Merchants Bank is approximately 1.005 trillion yuan, with an AH premium rate of 0.89, indicating an 11% discount of A-shares relative to H-shares [5] - CATL, another leading company, saw its A-shares decline by 0.93% while H-shares fell by 3.13%, with A-share trading volume being 12.5 times that of H-shares [6] Group 4 - The AH premium index closed at 116.99 on February 24, indicating that A-shares are trading at a premium to H-shares, and this index has been on a downward trend since April 9, 2025 [11] - The index has dropped from a high of 144.85 to a low of 113.56, marking an eight-year low [11] - Analysts suggest that the recent trend of foreign capital favoring Hong Kong stocks may be influenced by the appreciation of the yuan, which could lead to a convergence of AH premiums [13] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley highlighted investment opportunities in sectors such as technology and cyclical recovery, particularly in leading companies within these fields [13] - Tianfeng Securities expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a focus on value-oriented investments while maintaining growth as a secondary consideration [13]

一般在 A 股春节休市期间，外围走势都偏好，但一开市，就开始砸盘，港股也是如此，今天跌 1.82％ ，A 股整体还好，顶住了压力，但跳空缺口也是较大隐忧。 梳理一下港股春节的表现：首先炒了机器人，如越疆(02432)大涨了近 24％ ，不过，两天就打回了原 形。原因是春晚机器人虽然比上一次进步了很多，但更多的是带表演性质，都是按照固定的程序在走， 而离真正的进入 C 端，还差老远，大脑不解决，始终还无法大规模进入家庭。这需要时间，因此热闹 之后回归理性，砸盘就变成必然。再是大模型的智谱(02513)，其新一代旗舰模型 GLM-5 确实给力，极 大拉小了和 Claude Opus 4.6 之间的距离，还有一个MINIMAX-WP(00100)：MiniMax M2.5 以 2.45 万亿 token 空降榜首。这都是硬实力，在调整一天后今天继续上涨。 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的关税措施， 缺乏明确法律授权。宣布终止一系列关税措施。美国政府不可能就这样暂停，最新应对是援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条，特朗普 21 日宣布对输美商品征收的 " ...