Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial for profitability this year. The chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn, is anticipated to recover gradually due to improving demand. The beef and raw milk sectors are expected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, signaling a cyclical upturn [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned for growth, including Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 1.8%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.1%. The top five gainers included Nongfa Seed Industry (30.2%), Shennong Technology (26.1%), and others, while the top five losers included Fujian Jinsen (-12.6%) and others [2][3]. Pig Farming - The report notes that the overall pig slaughter pace has accelerated as the pre-holiday window approaches, leading to a significant drop in pig prices. The average price for external three yuan pigs was 12.24 yuan/kg, down 5.3% week-on-week. The seasonal price rebound that began in mid-December has likely concluded, with expectations of further price pressure [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The report indicates that the price of white feather chicken and chicken products has shown strong support, with the average sales price for white feather chicken at 3.76 yuan/kg, up 2.7% week-on-week. The demand side is expected to improve, potentially pushing product prices out of the cyclical bottom [2][3]. Cattle Farming - The report highlights a slight increase in beef and calf prices, with the average price for fattening bulls at 25.68 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week. The raw milk price remains stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, supported by seasonal demand [2][3]. Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring online sales of pet food in 2025, noting that major online platforms reported a sales figure of 21.1 billion yuan in December 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. However, the overall annual sales for 2025 reached 307.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10% [2][3].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Group 1: Company Performance - Mu Yuan Food Co., Ltd. (牧原股份) expects a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% due to lower average selling prices of live pigs and increased production management efficiency [1] - Wen's Food Group Co., Ltd. (温氏股份) anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 40.73% to 46.12% driven by lower sales prices of both live pigs and chickens [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall pig farming industry is experiencing an increase in volume but a decrease in price, leading to a differentiated profitability landscape, with larger enterprises maintaining relative profitability due to scale advantages while smaller operators exit the market [3] - The phenomenon of "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) in 2026 is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalance, weak demand, and cyclical mismatches, with high inventory levels of breeding sows contributing to increased output but lower prices [3] - Analysts predict that pig prices may stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2026, although the extent of the rebound may be limited due to improved production efficiency of sows and preemptive restocking behaviors among producers [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].

农林牧渔行业：猪价短期回暖，不 改去化趋势 2026 年 1 月 30 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，12 月均价下行。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2025 年 12 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 23.40 元/公斤、12.26 元/公斤和 22.63 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-3.50%、-2.27%和-1.81%。猪价在 12 月底部 回升，但均价下行。26 年 1 月猪价明显回升，截至 1 月 20 日，全国外三元生 猪均价 12.90 元/公斤。 供应端： 12 月份，疫病点状爆发和行业亏损影响，养殖端整体出栏节奏偏快。 进入 26 年 1 月，规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月上旬 猪价形成支撑。需求端：元旦支撑需求阶段性走高，12 月生猪屠宰开工率环 比上涨 5.32 个百分点至 39.44%。1 月春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。 但屠宰端冻品出库对开工率和价格上行造成阻力。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to 14205.89 points. In contrast, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% to 3346.36 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 286.27 billion, a decrease of 39.7 billion from the previous day [3][5]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks emerged as the unexpected leaders in supporting the market, particularly driven by the strong performance of "Yizhongtian," which saw an average increase of around 6%. This significantly impacted the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, while financial stocks, which were previously expected to support the market, became the main force behind the sell-off, with the securities sector down 1.72%, insurance down 1.1%, and banking down 0.41% [4][6]. Trading Dynamics - The market experienced a notable sell-off today, marking one of the largest adjustments in recent times, with trading volume shrinking to approximately 2.86 trillion. This indicates that the market cooling measures have had some effect, particularly in suppressing speculative trading in thematic stocks [5][6]. Commodity and Sector Trends - The metal-related sectors collectively faced significant declines, with precious metals down 8.52%, energy metals down 7.29%, and mining down 5.53%. This was largely attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, which dropped from $5626 per ounce to around $5400, affecting the performance of related commodities [7][9]. Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural and aquaculture sectors showed resilience, with some stocks rising despite the overall market downturn. However, the sustainability of this rally is questionable, as the sector has not undergone sufficient adjustment, and price increases may not lead to lasting trends due to overcapacity in domestic industries [8][9]. Key Signals - Two critical signals warrant attention: first, the gold market appears to have reached a turning point, with speculative trading potentially nearing its end. Second, significant volatility was observed in the U.S. stock market, particularly with the Nasdaq index, which reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of AI-related investments, especially following substantial declines in major tech stocks like Microsoft [9][10].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 生猪市场周报 节前供应施压，关注需求表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 行情展望：2月份出栏时间较少，虽然部分企业惜售挺价，但是市场整体在节前预计保持出栏节奏， 节前供应压力增加，关注养殖端出栏情况。需求端，南方交通恢复，屠宰开工率回升，节前备货预期， 但学生放假，短期需求增幅有限。总体来说，需求虽然有回升，但增幅受限，节前市场供应压力较大， 施压生猪价格偏弱调整。 本周期货下行 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单0张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.0 ...

农业板块迎来行情催化，农发种业开盘10分钟内封死涨停，相关种业个股同步异动，板块整体表现活 跃。此次行情发酵源于两方面因素，一是农产品涨价预期逐步升温，生猪、大豆等品种价格出现波动上 行迹象；二是年度相关政策进入预热阶段，市场对产业支持政策落地抱有期待。 养殖产业链：涵盖生猪、白鸡、黄鸡等细分领域，生猪产业当前处于产能缓慢去化阶段，能繁母猪存栏 仍略高于正常保有量，冬季非洲猪瘟疫情防控压力上升，行业盈利随猪价短期反弹有所修复；白鸡祖代 引种量维持高位，商品代供给宽松，养殖环节保持微利；黄鸡产能处于历史低位，供给偏紧叠加消费旺 季需求支撑，养殖盈利保持稳定，立华股份、温氏股份等企业凭借成本优势占据市场份额。 本文源自：市场资讯 种植产业链：种业领域政策持续优化，转基因技术产业化稳步推进，优质种子产品迭代升级带动行业结 构调整；粮价受国际市场美联储降息、库消比下降及国内最低收购价政策支撑呈现上涨趋势，玉米、小 麦收购价格震荡上行，种植企业收益随粮价波动调整，苏垦农发等种植主体凭借规模化种植优势，收益 稳定性较强，中长期配置价值凸显。 作者：观察君 动保产业链：兽用化药领域，泰妙菌素、泰万菌素等产品价格处于高位震荡 ...