1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

Report Summary - **Report Release Date**: January 26, 2026 [3] I. Overnight Night Market Trends - **International Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $4,983.10 per ounce, up 8.44% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce, up 16.63% for the week. Factors like the expanding global silver supply - demand gap, US government shutdown risk, and geopolitical tensions boosted the safe - haven demand [5]. - **Crude Oil**: The US oil main contract rose 3.23% to $61.28 per barrel, up 3.27% for the week; Brent oil main contract rose 3.32% to $65.44 per barrel, up 2.94% for the week. Concerns over Iran and supply fears led to the rebound [5]. - **London Base Metals**: LME copper rose 2.92% to $13,128.5 per ton, up 2.54% for the week; LME zinc rose 1.81% to $3,269 per ton, up 1.87% for the week; LME nickel rose 3.97% to $18,710 per ton, up 6.44% for the week; LME aluminum rose 1.31% to $3,173.5 per ton, up 1.26% for the week; LME tin rose 9.11% to $56,605 per ton, up 17.97% for the week; LME lead rose 0.74% to $2,035 per ton, down 0.44% for the week [6]. - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic futures contracts rose. Fuel oil rose nearly 5%, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), methanol, and synthetic rubber rose nearly 3%. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 2%. Paper pulp fell 1%, and caustic soda and cotton fell nearly 1% [8]. II. Important News A. Macroeconomic News - **Regulatory Changes**: The CSRC added 14 futures and options varieties as domestic specific varieties, including nickel futures and options on the SHFE, etc. [10] - **Consumption Promotion**: The National Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Conference emphasized boosting consumption in 2026, promoting commodity consumption expansion and upgrading [10]. - **Shipping Index**: As of January 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index dropped 116.26 points, and the China Export Container Freight Composite Index fell 0.1% [10] - **Exchange Rules**: DCE announced the implementation of revised trading rules and new settlement rules [11] - **Military Deployment**: The US is strengthening its military deployment in the Middle East, with the "Abraham Lincoln" carrier strike group reaching the Indian Ocean [13] B. Energy and Chemical Futures - **LNG Import**: The IEA expects Europe to import a record - high 185 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2026, up from 175 billion in 2025 [15] - **Styrene Production**: As of January 22, China's styrene factory output decreased by 0.61 tons week - on - week to 34.93 tons, with a 1.72% decline, and capacity utilization dropped 1.23% [15] - **Contract Drafting**: INE drafted futures and options contracts for 20 - rubber and low - sulfur fuel oil and is seeking public comments [15] C. Metal Futures - **Margin Adjustment**: SHFE will adjust the daily limit and margin ratios for nickel, alumina, lead, zinc, and stainless - steel futures from January 27 [17] - **Silver Demand**: The World Silver Association reported that global silver industrial demand will grow in the next five years due to increasing demand in PV, AI, and EVs [19] - **Metal Inventory**: Last week, nickel inventory increased by 2,614 tons, zinc decreased by 3,160 tons, copper increased by 12,422 tons, tin increased by 171 tons, and aluminum increased by 11,174 tons [20] - **Rule Revision**: SHFE is seeking public comments on revising the nickel futures business rules [20] - **Lithium Sale**: Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate at $140 per ton, and mining restart is expected to end in January 2026 [20] D. Black - Series Futures - **Inspection Fee**: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the inspection fees for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures [22] - **Steel Mill Data**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, down 0.16 ppts week - on - week; ironmaking capacity utilization was 85.51%, up 0.03 ppts; steel mill profitability was 40.69%, up 0.86 ppts; and daily hot - metal output was 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [22] - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 16,766.53 tons, up 211.43 tons; the daily discharge volume was 310.73 tons, down 9.16 tons. At 47 ports, the total inventory was 17,496.53 tons, up 207.83 tons; and the daily discharge volume was 320.52 tons, down 14.50 tons [24] - **Global Steel Output**: In December 2025, global crude - steel output was 139.6 million tons, down 3.7% year - on - year; for 2025, it was 1.8038 billion tons, down 2% year - on - year [25] E. Agricultural Futures - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's MPOB will launch an official reference price for used cooking oil (UCO) in Q1 2026 to improve market transparency [27] - **Cotton Inventory**: As of January 22, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased 6.31% week - on - week to 47.52 tons [27] - **Pig Farming**: As of January 23, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was $43.35 per head, and purchasing piglets for farming profit was $115.84 per head [27] - **Rapeseed Export**: As of January 18, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased 155.95% week - on - week to 28.82 tons. For the 2025 - 26 season, exports were 3.2097 million tons, down 37.42% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory was 1.1059 million tons [28][29] III. Financial Markets A. Financial Sector - **Foreign Public Funds**: Foreign public funds are optimistic about A - shares in 2026, maintaining high positions and focusing on the technology sector [31] - **Market Recovery**: In the process of market confidence recovery, sectors such as the consumer and real - estate chains may see repairs. The issuance of equity funds has warmed up, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [31] - **"Savings Migration"**: About 50 trillion yuan of one - year - plus fixed - term deposits will mature in 2026, with about 800 billion yuan potentially flowing into public funds, preferring index funds and diversified strategies [32] - **Broker Research**: Brokers have surveyed 440 A - share companies, with a focus on electronics and machinery. They expect structural opportunities in the stock market this year [33] - **Securities Industry Transformation**: The number of securities brokers has decreased, while the number of investment advisors has increased, indicating a transformation from sales to wealth management [33] - **North交所**: As of January 23, there were 290 listed companies on the North Exchange, with a total market value of 967.053 billion yuan. IPOs are expected to continue at a high - speed pace [33] - **New Stock Issuance**: The online effective subscription amount of North Exchange's new stock Meidele exceeded 1.05886 trillion yuan [34] - **Listings**: Aixin Yuanzhi Semiconductor and Connaught Biopharmaceutical plan to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35][36] B. Industry Sector - **Railway Adjustment**: Starting from January 26, the national railway adjusted its train operation diagram, increasing the number of passenger and freight trains [37] - **Coal Standard**: New standards for coal clean and efficient utilization were released, promoting the transformation of coal from fuel to raw material [39] - **Industry Support**: Beijing plans to invest over 1.5 billion yuan in high - tech industries, and Chongqing launched a 185 - million - yuan subsidy program for car replacement [39] C. Overseas Sector - **US Government Shutdown**: US Democratic senators may oppose a government funding bill, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of January [40] - **US Winter Storm**: A winter storm in the US has caused power outages for over 800,000 users, canceled over 10,000 flights, and affected a large area [40] - **Trade Agreements**: India will lower car import tariffs from 110% to 40% for high - end cars, and the EU and Vietnam will upgrade their bilateral relations [40][42] - **African Summit**: The World Economic Forum Africa Summit will resume in April 2027 [43] D. International Stock Market - **US Earnings Season**: US stocks will enter a "super earnings week," with tech giants like Apple and Microsoft set to release earnings. The focus is on AI - related investment returns and future capital expenditure plans [44] E. Commodity Sector - **Futures Expansion**: The CSRC added 14 futures and options varieties as domestic specific ones, signaling accelerated capital - market opening [45] - **Copper Bar Investment**: The "copper bar fever" is considered a concept hype, with potential risks for investors [45] - **Libya Oil Deal**: Libya signed a 25 - year oil development agreement with Total and ConocoPhillips, with an investment over $20 billion [45] F. Foreign Exchange Sector - **Japanese Yen**: Japanese Prime Minister Kōichi Sanae warned the financial market, and there are speculations that Japan may intervene in the foreign - exchange market to stop the yen's depreciation [47] IV. Upcoming Events - **09:20**: 200 billion yuan of MLF and 158.3 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature in the Chinese central bank's open market [49] - **15:00**: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on 2025's business work and operations [49] - **19:00**: ECB Governing Council member Nagel will speak [49] - **23:00**: ECB Governing Council member Kohler will speak [49] - **Other Events**: The 2026 "Star Computing · Intelligent Connectivity" Space Computing Power Seminar will be held, the 19th Asian Financial Forum will take place in Hong Kong, and the new stock Beixin Life on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will be available for subscription [49] V. Market Closures - **Australia**: Financial markets are closed for Australia Day [51] - **India**: Financial markets are closed for Republic Day [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - **Alumina**: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - **Tin**: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - **LPG**: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - **Natural Gas**: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - **Plastics (L & PP)**: The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - **PVC**: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - **Urea**: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - **Logs**: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of lithium mining stocks in the US market on January 23, with significant gains observed in several companies [1] Group 2 - Sigma Lithium experienced an increase of over 17% in its stock price [1] - Lithium Americas saw its stock rise by more than 4% [1] - Chilean mining and chemical companies reported a nearly 1% increase [1]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the capital game in lithium carbonate futures outweighs the fundamentals game. Despite good downstream point - price transactions on Friday, it may not be able to accommodate the exit of the previously crowded long positions. However, with demand support and mining - end disturbances, lithium carbonate prices are likely to be generally more likely to rise than fall. - The core issue with the rise of lithium carbonate prices lies in price downward transmission. The rapid increase in cathode material prices has transferred the pressure to cell manufacturers. In the long - term, it is necessary to monitor whether the rise in lithium carbonate prices will affect the fulfillment of energy storage demand in the second half of the year. - It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the position volume and volatility stabilize [1][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Game Intensifies, Market Fluctuations Amplify - **Price and Market Fluctuations**: Last week (1/12 - 1/16), lithium salt prices rose rapidly and then fell sharply. The LC2605 closing price increased by 1.9% to 146,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 12.9% and 13.2% to 158,000 and 154,500 yuan/ton respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices also fluctuated accordingly. - **Reasons for Price Decline**: The significant drop in lithium carbonate was mainly due to the position limit, which triggered long - position capital to take profits and caused a stampede. On Friday, the weighted lithium carbonate contract reduced positions by 48,800 lots, accounting for 5.5%. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: This week, SMM inventory decreased by 263 tons. Brazilian Sigma Lithium's mine may delay its resumption due to tailings treatment issues. There are rumors that some mica mines in Yichun have stopped production, affecting a monthly output of about 3,000 tons of LCE. SMM weekly production increased by 70 tons. - **Demand**: After cathode material manufacturers achieved short - term price support, many cathode manufacturers adjusted their production schedules. The demand in the off - season showed a stronger non - weakening feature. The downstream restocking demand was large on Friday, and it is expected to continue due to low raw material inventory days (about 9.1 days). - **Terminal Demand**: Domestic power demand is weak, but overseas power demand may improve, and energy storage demand maintains high growth [1][10][11][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - **Company News**: On January 13, Rongbai Technology announced a major contract with CATL. On January 18, it was announced that the company was filed by the CSRC for suspected misleading statements in the major contract announcement. - **International Trade**: China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement on electric vehicles. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market annually with a most - favored - nation tariff rate of 6.1%. - **Policy Adjustment**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standards and trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts from January 15. - **Mining News**: Brazil's Sigma Lithium's three waste dumps were shut down, delaying the mine's resumption and leading to a downgrade by Bank of America and a 15% drop in its stock price [15][16][17][18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - **Resource End**: Lithium concentrate prices increased with the market. - **Lithium Salt**: The market fluctuated greatly, and the basis oscillated widely. - **Downstream Intermediates**: Downstream prices rose driven by costs. - **Terminal**: Power demand weakened month - on - month in January [10][11][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate and suggests paying attention to the resumption progress of overseas mines [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 166,340 yuan, with a change of 3,540 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 60, and the open interest is 465. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 161,940 yuan, with a change of - 5,040 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 589,019, and the open interest is 452,583 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 27,158 hands, with an increase of 260 hands compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2601 is - 3,340 yuan, and the basis of spot - 2605 is 1,060 yuan. The basis of 2601 - 2605 is 4,400 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,100 yuan, with an increase of 10 yuan compared to T - 1. The price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,990 yuan, with an increase of 40 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan, with an increase of 3,500 yuan compared to T - 1. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan, with an increase of 3,500 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 56,590 yuan, with an increase of 925 yuan compared to T - 1. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 192,350 yuan, with an increase of 1,400 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 165,597 yuan/ton, up 4,622 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]. - Brazilian lithium producer Sigma Lithium will resume partial production at its Grota do Cirilo mine by the end of January, after a 3.5 - month shutdown. The company plans to increase production in Q1 and announce its 2026 production plan after achieving stable production [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [15]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - **Alumina**: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - **Platinum**: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - **Palladium**: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - **Stainless steel**: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - **Polysilicon**: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - **Iron ore**: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Coke**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Coking coal**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Steam coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - **Para - xylene**: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - **PTA**: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The center is moving up [15][87]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - **PP**: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - **Caustic soda**: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15][100]. - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - **Urea**: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - **PVC**: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - **Fuel oil**: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - **Staple fiber**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - **Bottle chips**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - **Offset printing paper**: Hold short positions [15][160]. - **Pure benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - **Palm oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - **Soybean oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - **Soybean meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - **Sugar**: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - **Egg**: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - **Live pig**: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating [15][196].

Copper - Overnight LME copper showed a rebound after initial declines, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic data from the US indicates a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5%, reflecting consumer resilience [12] - The US NAR reported that December's existing home sales reached an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [12] - LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 141,625 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 3,710 tons to 484,066 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 27,212 tons to 149,339 tons [12] - Copper prices are rising again, but downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, focusing on essential needs. The expanding import losses and the gradually opening export window may benefit first-quarter export demand [12] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff policy, temporarily alleviating market concerns about tariffs, which helped stabilize copper prices [12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.73% to $18,785 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 5.62% to 148,930 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 510 tons to 284,658 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 836 tons to 40,272 tons [13] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a reduction in the nickel ore production target for 2026 from 364 million tons to approximately 250-260 million tons [13] - The rapid price increase has led to a significant rise in primary nickel production, up 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, which may exert pressure on market prices [13][5] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia is expected to create a global supply-demand gap for primary nickel, potentially driving prices higher [5] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,788 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2603 at 24,665 yuan per ton, down 0.32% [14] - The SMM alumina price fell to 2,654 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot premiums expanded to 80 yuan per ton [14] - High inventory levels at alumina plants have led to low premium procurement sentiment, continuing to pressure costs [14] - The end of environmental controls and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to increased exports, while aluminum ingot inventory pressure is easing [14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The reference price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9,628 yuan per ton [15] - Polysilicon prices experienced a decline, with the main contract at 48,945 yuan per ton, down 1.46% [15] - The Xinjiang region's major factories are entering maintenance periods, leading to increased inventory transfer to intermediate channels and rising hidden inventories [15] - The market is experiencing a cooling of speculative sentiment, with limited upside price potential for polysilicon [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 3.53% to 161,940 yuan per ton, while spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,500 yuan to 163,000 yuan per ton [16] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with spodumene and lithium mica production also rising [16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing [16] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing terminal demand, the overall market sentiment remains bullish on lithium prices due to low downstream inventory and speculative demand [16]