Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the photovoltaic industry, with the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 1.93% as of February 24, 2026, driven by significant gains in key stocks such as GCL-Poly Energy and South Grid Energy [1] - The National Energy Administration plans to implement a new energy system and sector-specific energy plans in 2026, marking the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on energy security and the construction of a strong energy nation [1] - Key engineering projects will be crucial for the implementation of these plans, including the construction of major renewable energy bases and the promotion of small-scale projects like electric vehicle charging networks and zero-carbon parks [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan Securities indicates that since July 2025, measures to combat "involution" have improved the profitability of the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for a recovery in the industry due to price control and supply-side adjustments [2] - The photovoltaic industry chain is anticipated to turn profitable in 2026, supported by the exit of less efficient companies and technological upgrades among leading firms [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index accounted for 53.49% of the index, with companies like TBEA and LONGi Green Energy leading the list [2] Group 3 - The photovoltaic ETF managed by Harvest (159123) serves as a convenient tool for investing across the entire photovoltaic industry chain [3] - Investors can also access the photovoltaic ETF through an off-market connection (014605) to capitalize on investment opportunities within the photovoltaic sector [4]

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated February 24, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost - support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [2]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are tight, and the futures price has bottom support [2]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of silicon wafers has declined [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 135,190, down 4,420 from the previous day; the closing price of stainless - steel futures was 13,860, down 110 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ores, and some mines are facing potential fines. There are also issues such as monopoly in port logistics in the IMIP park, and some overseas nickel mines plan to restart operations [4][5][6]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 152,640, up 3,220 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of upstream and downstream products in the lithium - salt industry chain also showed corresponding changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Samsung SDI has made a breakthrough in lithium - metal batteries, and the construction project of Zijin Mining's solid - state battery lithium - new material has started [12][13]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,395 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,305 yuan/ton, up 290 from the previous day. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, and profits of related products, and the price of silicon wafers decreased [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China Pingmei Shenma Group, Longi Green Energy, and the Zambian government signed a cooperation memorandum for a 1000 - megawatt solar - power project [15][17]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, cost, and profit data, and also mentions a renewable energy cooperation project [2]. - The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price is 8,395 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 5; the trading volume and open interest show different changes. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price is 49,305 yuan/ton, with a small increase compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount shows different values when benchmarked against different grades, and polysilicon's spot premium or discount (benchmarked against N - type re - investment) is +3,945 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to previous periods [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,250 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan compared to T - 5. The prices of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have different changes [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2,736.5 yuan/ton and - 5,616 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous periods. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.9 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 tons, with a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory and industry inventory also show corresponding changes. The polysilicon factory inventory is 34.9 tons, with an increase of 0.8 tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have different stability or change trends [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 28, China Pingmei Shenma Group, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the Zambian government signed a renewable energy cooperation memorandum of understanding, planning to invest in a 1,000 - megawatt solar power project in the next three years [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4].

Political Impact - The ruling against IEEPA undermines Trump's core political asset of tariff policy, potentially diminishing his negotiating power and influence[6] - Without alternative legal pathways to reinstate tariffs, Trump may be perceived as a "lame duck"[7] Economic Impact - Estimated cumulative tariffs collected under IEEPA could reach approximately $170 billion by February 20, 2026, with reduced tariff revenue and potential refunds likely to increase the fiscal deficit[7] - The market initially reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising about 0.6% and the Nasdaq increasing approximately 1% following the ruling, indicating expectations of improved inflation and corporate earnings[24] Diplomatic Impact - The ruling may weaken the credibility of trade frameworks that rely on tariffs, leading trade partners to reassess their commitments until a new legal basis is established[7] - Countries with existing agreements may slow down their implementation processes, particularly those without clear execution frameworks[21] Policy Response - The Trump administration plans to utilize Section 122 tariffs as a transitional measure, imposing a 15% global tariff effective February 24, 2026, for a maximum of 150 days[8] - The USTR is expected to expedite Section 301 investigations to establish a sustainable tariff system before the expiration of the 122 tariffs[9] Market Outlook - The market is likely to experience a "marginal easing—then tightening" path, benefiting from initial tariff cancellation expectations but facing pressure as alternative tariff measures are implemented[4] - The effective tariff rate on China is projected to remain around 30%, despite a nominal decrease due to the shift from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs[26] Risk Factors - Potential chaos if U.S. trade partners refuse to acknowledge the outcomes of interim trade negotiations[5] - The pace of tax refunds exceeding expectations could lead to a short-term spike in the fiscal deficit, impacting U.S. debt and dollar valuation[36] - If new tariff proposals are implemented more swiftly than anticipated, it could counteract the positive effects of the Supreme Court ruling[36]

2025年，全球贸易格局深度调整，单边贸易限制、地缘政治博弈等因素持续扰动国际市场，我国外贸在 挑战中展现出强大韧性和活力。其中，中西部省份表现尤为亮眼，在全国外贸进出口增速前10的省份 中，有九席花落中西部地区。新疆、陕西、湖北、甘肃、云南等省份增速大幅领跑全国，中西部地区成 为内陆开放新高地。 同时，中西部地区经营主体的活力持续释放，中小微企业、专精特新"小巨人"企业成为外贸发展新生力 量。中国进出口银行相关负责人介绍，各分行通过"一对一"金融顾问、供应链融资、转贷款合作等方 式，为企业提供精准金融服务。例如，陕西省分行5年间支持数千户小微企业，推动普惠金融服务增量 扩面，让更多经营主体参与到外贸发展中，形成"龙头引领、小微跟进"的良好格局。四川省分行为龙头 企业建立"一企一策"服务机制，助力企业优化全球产业布局；为创新型企业提供"融资+融智"服务，帮 助企业更好地抓住市场机遇；为中欧班列(成渝)集结中心的建设和班列开行运营提供全方位金融支持， 让四川企业和产品走向国际市场。 多维赋能推动增长 中西部地区外贸能够在全球贸易变局中逆势突围，并非偶然。程婉静表示，这是资源禀赋升级、贸易格 局重塑、国家战略赋能 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and vitality amidst challenges such as unilateral trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, with the central and western provinces showing remarkable performance in trade growth [1] Group 1: Trade Growth and Structure Optimization - The export value of China's "new three items" (electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, lithium-ion batteries) increased by 27.1% year-on-year in 2025, with the central and western regions becoming the main drivers of this growth [1] - Provinces like Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Hubei, Gansu, and Yunnan are leading the national growth rates in foreign trade, indicating that the central and western regions are emerging as new highlands for inland openness [1] - The diversification of trade partners is a key indicator of the optimization of the foreign trade structure in the central and western regions, with significant year-on-year growth in trade with Belt and Road countries [2] Group 2: Economic and Strategic Factors - The growth of foreign trade in the central and western regions is attributed to three main factors: resource endowment upgrades, trade pattern reshaping, and national strategic empowerment [3] - The central and western regions are leveraging their resource and geographical advantages to drive industrial structure transformation, with over 60% of the national power generation capacity located in these areas [3] - National strategies such as the Western Development and Central Rise initiatives are providing strong support for foreign trade growth, with policies encouraging foreign investment in these regions [4] Group 3: Logistics and Trade Platforms - The construction of cross-border logistics networks, including the China-Europe Railway Express and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, has significantly improved the trade positioning of the central and western regions [5] - The functions of free trade zones and comprehensive bonded zones are being continuously strengthened, serving as highlands for institutional innovation and foreign trade industry aggregation [5] - The development of cross-border e-commerce platforms is enabling many small and medium-sized enterprises to reach global markets, providing crucial support for the expansion and quality improvement of foreign trade [5] Group 4: Future Opportunities and Challenges - In 2026, China's foreign trade will face both opportunities and risks, with geopolitical influences increasing external uncertainties while high-quality Belt and Road initiatives enhance global supply chain resilience [6] - The central and western regions have formed a green industry cluster represented by the "new three items," which is expected to maintain growth in foreign trade [6] - Challenges include the need to avoid homogenization in overseas markets and the existence of shortcomings in digital and service trade sectors, indicating further optimization is necessary [6][7] Group 5: Recommendations for Development - To seize new opportunities in foreign trade, the central and western regions should implement differentiated development strategies, leveraging their resource advantages and actively engaging with emerging markets [7] - Improving the business environment and enhancing "going out" services are essential, including building industry service platforms and optimizing logistics functions [7] - Strengthening international rule alignment and establishing risk warning mechanisms will help enterprises navigate the complexities of global trade [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the electric power equipment industry, highlighting growth opportunities in renewable energy and related technologies [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing role of renewable energy in meeting electricity demand, with a target for 70% of market-based electricity by 2030 [3][61]. - Significant advancements in solid-state battery technology are noted, with national standards expected to be published in July 2026, which will help standardize the industry [51]. - The commercial space sector is accelerating, with companies like Starship Glory completing significant funding rounds to enhance reusable rocket technology [2][57]. Summary by Sections Electric Power Equipment - The report indicates that by 2025, new electricity demand will be met primarily by renewable energy sources, with a goal of 60% renewable energy capacity by that year [3][61]. - The wind power sector is projected to add 110 GW of onshore capacity and 6.59 GW of offshore capacity by 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][58]. Solid-State Batteries - The national standard for automotive solid-state batteries is set to clarify terminology and classifications, which is crucial for industry development [51]. - A strategic partnership between companies like Dangsheng Technology and Huineng Technology aims to enhance solid-state battery material performance and production [52]. Commercial Space - Starship Glory has secured 50.37 billion yuan in D++ round financing, which will accelerate the commercialization of reusable rocket technology [2][57]. - The report highlights the growing demand for commercial space launches, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology [2][57]. Renewable Energy Trends - The report notes a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with January 2026 seeing a 100.8% year-on-year increase in exports [21][30]. - The solar power sector is experiencing a reduction in tariffs for Indian products exported to the U.S., which is expected to boost market competitiveness [49].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's large-scale tariff measures lacked clear legal authorization, potentially requiring the government to refund over $100 billion in tariffs to thousands of U.S. importers, leading to an unprecedented refund process [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Financial Implications - The Supreme Court's decision is expected to trigger a complex and lengthy process, with thousands of companies seeking to reclaim the tariffs they paid, which could take months or even years [2]. - Trump expressed uncertainty about how the refund process would work, indicating that litigation might be necessary to resolve the issue, potentially extending over several years [3][5]. - The refund process will be managed by lower courts and the U.S. International Trade Court, with the Customs and Border Protection and the Treasury Department executing it [10]. Group 2: Financial Data and Company Involvement - The estimated range of tariffs collected by the U.S. government is between $1.15 trillion and $1.75 trillion, with over 1,000 companies already filing claims for refunds [8][10]. - Companies involved in the lawsuits include major brands such as Costco, Reebok, and Goodyear, as well as international firms like South Korea's Hankook Tire and Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries [8]. Group 3: Political and International Reactions - The ruling has elicited cautious responses from U.S. allies, with the EU and UK expressing a desire to understand the implications of the decision on global trade [11][14]. - Canadian officials welcomed the ruling, viewing it as a reinforcement of their position against the tariffs, although business leaders remain cautious about the long-term implications [14].