Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price is set at 97.72 HKD, based on a 33x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2][10] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with revenue growth driven by its main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid expansion of its infant brand, Yi Ye [9][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 4,191 in 2023 to 12,350 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.6%, 62.1%, 24.7%, 22.3%, and 19.2% respectively [4][12] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 414 million RMB in 2023 to 1,739 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates of 308.5% in 2023 and 67.8% in 2024 [4][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 461 million RMB in 2023 to 1,669 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 213.5% in 2023 and 69.4% in 2024 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.1% in 2023 to 76.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 11.0% to 13.5% over the same period [4][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 165.8% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The stock price as of August 6, 2025, was 87.75 HKD, with a 52-week high of 90.9 HKD and a low of 28.84 HKD [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.52%, gaining 130 points to close at 25,041 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.55% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 141.8 billion HKD [1] Apple-Related Stocks - Apple-related stocks saw significant gains due to the impact of Trump's additional 25% tariffs on India, affecting Apple's manufacturing strategy in India [1] - High伟电子 (01415) increased by 9.99%, 鸿腾精密 (06088) rose by 7.24%, and 舜宇光学 (02382) gained 3.7% [1] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector experienced a positive trend, with Macau's July gaming revenue exceeding expectations, leading to favorable outlooks from several major banks [1] - 金沙中国 (01928) rose by 3.68%, 银河娱乐 (00027) increased by 3.11%, and 澳博控股 (00880) gained 3.61% [1] Technology and AI Stocks - 赤子城科技 (09911) surged over 8% following a profit warning, with expectations of at least doubling its net profit in the first half of the year due to AI-enabled diversified social products [1] - 出门问问 (02438) rose over 5%, driven by the success of its TicNote product both domestically and internationally, potentially boosting the company's valuation [1] - 英诺赛科 (02577) increased by 12%, recognized as the world's largest GaN IDM company and recently became a partner with NVIDIA for 800V DC power supplies [1] Retail Sector - 名创优品 (09896) saw an increase of over 4%, as 永辉超市 plans to implement a "胖东来" model transformation for its stores, following the company's previous acquisition of 永辉超市 [1] Company Performance - 上美股份 (02145) rose over 2% to reach a new high, with strong performance forecasts for the first half of the year attributed to channel and brand structure optimization enhancing profit margins [2] - 小米集团-W (01810) fell over 4%, with Nomura noting high market expectations for its automotive business, while富瑞 indicated that its mobile phone business may drag down second-quarter performance [2]

赤子城科技(09911)盈喜后涨超8%，AI赋能多样化社交产品，预计上半年纯利至少翻倍。 出门问问(02438)再涨超5%，TicNote海内外热销，新兴AI应用产品或提振公司估值。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数涨0.52%，涨130点，报25041点；恒生科技指数跌0.55%。港股早盘成 交1418亿港元。 苹果概念股涨幅居前，特朗普对印度加征25%的额外关税，直接影响苹果印度制造战略。高伟电子 (01415)涨9.99%；鸿腾精密(06088)涨7.24%；舜宇光学(02382)涨3.7%。 博彩股普遍走高，澳门7月博彩收入超预期，行业前景获多家大行唱好。金沙中国(01928)涨3.68%；银 河娱乐(00027)涨3.11%；澳博控股(00880)涨3.61%。 名创优品(09896)涨超4%，永辉超市拟对门店进行胖东来模式改造，公司此前入主永辉超市。 上美股份(02145)涨超2%破顶，上半年业绩预告亮眼，渠道及品牌结构优化带动利润率提升。 小米集团-W(01810)现跌超4%，野村称市场对汽车业务预期较高，富瑞称手机业务或拖累二季度业绩。 英诺赛科(02577)再涨12%，公司为全球最大的氮化镓 ...

Group 1: Consumer Services - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for supportive policies [1] - In Q3, the tourism sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and the peak travel season, with recommendations for stocks like Changbai Mountain, Nanjing Commercial Travel, and Jiuhua Tourism [1] - The education sector shows stable growth potential, particularly for K12 companies like Xueda Education and AI-focused companies like Doushen Education [1] Group 2: Beauty and Personal Care - The medical beauty sector is undergoing changes due to the emergence of new institutions, with a recommendation to focus on Aimeike as the industry gains attention [2] - Q3 is traditionally a slow season for cosmetics, but opportunities exist for companies with clear catalysts in the second half of the year, including Shangmei Co., Mao Ge Ping, and Ruan Ben Co. [2] - The childcare subsidy policy is expected to benefit companies like Shangmei Co. and Shanghai Jahwa [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet food sector, particularly staple foods, shows strong resilience and performance, while health products and pet supplies are experiencing rapid growth [3] - Domestic brands are expanding overseas and have established production capabilities, making external risks relatively controllable [3] Group 4: Duty-Free - The duty-free sector in Hainan is seeing a narrowing decline in sales, with stable growth in visitor traffic and the gradual opening of city duty-free stores expected to bring additional revenue [4] - The sector's funding structure is favorable, and the fundamentals are at a bottoming stage, with ongoing policy optimizations [4] Group 5: Traditional Retail - The new childcare subsidy policy is expected to positively impact maternal and infant retail companies like Aiyingshi and Kidswant, with more local policies anticipated [5] - Yonghui Supermarket has opened 23 "fat reform" stores, and attention is recommended on the progress and effectiveness of these openings [5] - The average price for toy and beauty care shops in the Small Commodity City has exceeded 130,000, indicating a higher market expectation for future pricing [5] Group 6: Gold and Jewelry - New gold and jewelry companies are focusing on product development and consumer preference analysis through digital systems and social media platforms [6] - As the consumer attributes of gold jewelry companies increase, their valuation systems are expected to shift towards consumer product PEG valuations [6] - The sector is anticipated to perform well in Q3, with recent data indicating a recovery in terminal demand for gold jewelry [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its first half performance for 2025, with projected revenue of 40.9 to 41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and a net profit of 5.4 to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous growth of the main brand, Han Shu, and significant contributions from smaller brands like Newpage [2] - The company has optimized its brand strategy, particularly for Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, enhancing its multi-category layout and overall competitiveness [2] - During the major e-commerce promotion event in June 2025, Han Shu maintained its leading position in sales across multiple platforms, with significant year-on-year growth in sales on platforms like Tmall and JD [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 11.6 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's multi-brand development and net profit margin trends [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.6% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 48.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 2.91 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.7% [5][12] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence, particularly in the beauty and skincare sectors, with Han Shu leading in sales rankings on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, all-channel strategy, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - Upmood Holdings (02145) shares rose over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, following a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and profit growth driven by strategic brand and channel optimization [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Upmood Holdings expects revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1][1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][1] Strategic Insights - The revenue and profit increase is attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, benefiting from a multi-channel and multi-category approach, as well as substantial growth from the new growth curve, Newpage [1][1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands [1][1] - CICC highlighted that the profit forecast exceeded expectations due to improved profit margins driven by channel and brand structure optimization [1][1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Upmood Holdings' stock price increased by 5.3%, with a trading volume of 41.4813 million HKD [1][1] - CICC has maintained an outperform rating for the company and raised the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, driven by positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Net profit is expected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2 - The revenue and profit growth are attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has benefited from a multi-channel and multi-category strategy, as well as a substantial increase in revenue from the new growth line, Newpage [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and positioning new brands accurately [1] - CICC notes that the company's profit forecast for the first half of the year exceeds expectations, primarily due to the optimization of channel and brand structures, which has led to an unexpected increase in profit margins [1] Group 3 - The company is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the trend towards cost-effective consumption, while also opening up new growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1] - CICC maintains an outperform rating for the company and raises the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1]

何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 8 月 07 日 今日热点 策略：资金透视：近期公募报会数量回暖 尽管上周后半周市场历经回调，但资金面角度并不需要过分担忧：1）交易 性资金后续仍有支撑，融资余额逆势新高、7 月私募证券投资基金备案数量 创下年内新高；2）公募基金往往是中国资本市场突破平台期的核心力量，7 月中旬以来偏股基金报会数量逐周底部修复，或也将成为后续增量资金的重 要来源；3）长线资金构成了刻画增量资金的另一片拼图，当前配置型外资 单周转为净流入（但仓位尚未明显提升）、险资或稳步入市。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-08-06 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 今日深度 金工：另类 ETF 配置策略：日内趋势增强——ETF 智投研究系列 之十四 传统的 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The current economic cycle is under pressure, with insufficient effective demand being a constraint [10] - The transition from old to new driving forces remains the main theme, but short-term new forces have not yet replaced the old ones [10] - Some industries show signs of profit improvement, indicating a divergence in performance among economic entities [10] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend in July, with the median price reaching 129 yuan, outperforming the weighted index [9][10] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations from August to October, with the 10-year government bond likely to trade between 1.65% and 1.80% [10] - Factors influencing the bond market include weak economic and financial data, high government bond issuance, and potential changes in US-China tariffs [10] Group 3: Company Performance - The specific company reported a 24.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 2.43 billion yuan, and a 42.6% increase in net profit to 203 million yuan [15] - Domestic business revenue grew by 39% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.7% [15] - The company's overseas business also saw a 17.6% increase in revenue, benefiting from a well-established global supply chain [16] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is planning to issue H shares to enhance its capital strength and support global business expansion [18] - The focus on three major proprietary brands is expected to drive continued high growth in domestic business revenue [19] - The company aims to leverage its international presence to enhance brand recognition and capitalize on market opportunities in Southeast Asia [20]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, contributing to the overall bullish trend in this segment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992.HK) rose by 7.87%, while Shangmei Co. (02145.HK) increased by 7.34%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) saw a rise of 5.93% [1][2]. - The New Consumption Concept Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 64.97%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 24.18% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Shangmei Co. expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, with net profit projected to reach 540 million to 560 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. - Laopu Gold anticipates revenue of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [4]. - Pop Mart forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - Investment firms are optimistic about the new consumption sector, noting a shift towards personalized and service-oriented consumption among residents [6]. - The Hong Kong consumption sector is seen as more aligned with current new consumption trends compared to the A-share market, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Despite the current high valuations in the new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumption remains intact, suggesting continued growth in related areas such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [7][8].