Market Performance - On December 31, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09% closing at 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13525.02 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.23% to 3203.17 points [1] Fund Manager Changes - On December 31, a total of 53 fund managers experienced changes in their positions, with 43 fund products announcing departures of fund managers, involving 19 individuals [3] - In the last 30 days (December 1 to December 31), 705 fund products saw fund manager departures, with 17 leaving due to job changes and 2 for personal reasons [3] New Fund Managers - On December 31, 86 fund products announced new fund manager appointments, involving 36 new managers [5] - Notably, Xia Linfeng from Huabao Fund has managed funds totaling 932 million, with the highest return of 211.80% from Huabao Ecological China Mixed A over a tenure of 10 years and 320 days [5] Fund Manager Performance - Dongfang Fund's current asset scale is 1.103 billion, with the highest return product being Dongfang Yue Ling Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, achieving a return of 136.47% over 7 years and 112 days [4] Fund Company Research Activity - In December, Huaxia Fund conducted the most company research, engaging with 46 listed companies, followed by Southern Fund with 39 and Bosera Fund with 38 [7] - The most researched industry was specialized equipment with 156 instances, followed by chemical products with 120 [8] Recent Fund Research Focus - The most focused stock in the last month was Zhongke Shuguang, with 117 fund management companies participating in its research, followed by Haiguang Information and Chang'an Automobile with 117 and 86 respectively [11] - In the last week (December 24 to December 31), Zhongwei Co. was the most researched company with 26 fund institutions, followed by Xiangyu Medical and Desai Xiwai with 22 each [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in 2026, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of EVs and boost sales, particularly for mid to high-priced models [2]. - The implementation of a large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policy reflects the government's commitment to supporting the consumption of new energy vehicles [2]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for lithium batteries in 2026, driven by the sustained growth in electric vehicle sales and the continuation of the old-for-new policy [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, with personal consumers receiving up to 20,000 yuan for qualifying new energy vehicles [2]. - The policy aims to support the transition to low-emission vehicles, including electric trucks and city buses, thereby alleviating concerns about subsidy reductions for electric heavy trucks [2]. Market Performance - In 2025, the old-for-new policy significantly boosted the sales of new energy vehicles, with production and sales reaching 14.91 million and 14.78 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [2]. - The report notes that the domestic power battery sales reached 1,044.3 GWh in 2025, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market for battery manufacturers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading battery companies such as CATL, Zhongxin Innovation, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as material suppliers like Hunan Youneng and Tianwei Technology, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2]. - The anticipated increase in electric vehicle penetration and battery demand presents a favorable investment landscape for stakeholders in the new energy sector [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure [5][13][98]. - The surplus is concentrating on low - cost deliverable products, which may force nickel prices down to seek support from the cost of the wet - process production line [5][13][98]. - There are potential upward risks in stages. If the macro and industrial sectors resonate in the first half of the year and are accompanied by capital inflows, the upward trend at the end of 2025 may continue. However, if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit, there may be opportunities for high - altitude short - selling in the second half of the year [5][98] - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a rising bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price shock center shifted down after the trade war, hitting a five - year low in December and then rebounding due to Indonesia's policy. The volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. The annual high - low difference was about 20% [4][9]. - Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by the cost of Indonesian nickel iron. The terminal demand was weak, showing a narrow - range shock trend with a high - low difference of about 12% throughout the year [4][10] 3.2 Excess Concentration on Low - Cost Deliverable Products, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risks - **Supply - Side Growth Concentrates on Wet - Process Production Lines, with Fire - Process Production Almost Stagnant** - In 2026, the growth rate of refined nickel is expected to increase to 6.8%, becoming the highest - growth category. China and Indonesia will have new production capacity, while some European and American enterprises will also expand production [18][19]. - The expansion of MHP production capacity conforms to the new - energy orientation, helping to expand production and reduce costs for refined nickel and nickel sulfate. It is conservatively estimated that Indonesia's MHP output will increase by 28% to 570,000 tons in 2026 [27]. - The growth of nickel pig iron (NPI) is almost stagnant. Affected by Indonesia's policy and low profits, the growth rate of Indonesian NPI in 2026 is only expected to be 2.4% [18][34][36]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risks Still Need Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the demand. However, there is still flexibility in the later stage [46][49]. - If the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase the cost of nickel products and may support the bottom of nickel prices [49][52] 3.3 Demand Hard to Find Drivers, with Potential Bright Spots - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector** - In 2026, the global economic growth will further slow down. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be around 1.5%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4% [59]. - China's economy is still at the bottom, and it is expected that fiscal policy tools will play a role in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [59]. - **Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Increase** - In terms of demand, China's stainless steel demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2026. Domestic consumption may be supported by subsidies, while exports may decline [64][65]. - In terms of supply, new production capacity is limited. In 2026, nickel and chromium raw materials may rise, increasing the cost of stainless steel. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it may suppress production capacity utilization [68][71] - **The Proportion of Ternary Batteries Stabilizes, and New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - The growth rate of the new - energy vehicle market slows down. In China, due to subsidy withdrawal, the growth rate of new - energy passenger vehicle sales is expected to be 16%. In the overseas market, the US market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth [78][79][83]. - The proportion of ternary batteries has fallen below 20%. Although it faces challenges, it may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [88][91][93] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - In 2025, the estimated surplus of primary nickel is 277,000 tons. In 2026, without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the surplus is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons [98][99]. - The trading logic is to consider the continuation of the upward trend at the end of 2025 in the first half of 2026 if the macro and industry resonate. In the second half, consider high - altitude short - selling if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit [5][98]

Group 1 - Several lithium iron phosphate companies, including Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology, have announced production line maintenance, with a reduction scale expected between 0.3 to 3.5 million tons, and maintenance duration of about one month [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, reaching 111,900 yuan per ton this weekend, an increase of 17,400 yuan per ton compared to two weeks ago [1] - Prices for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and wet separators have also increased, along with a rise in battery cell prices [1] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with XINWANDA Power signing a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Zhongwei Co., and QuantumScape signing a joint development agreement with a top ten global automaker [1] - Major contracts in the lithium battery supply chain are increasing, with CATL signing a ten-year deep cooperation agreement with Lantu and a three-year 50GWh energy storage cooperation memorandum with Siyuan Electric [1] - European new energy vehicle sales have shown strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 41% in November across nine European countries, achieving a penetration rate of 34.6%, while domestic new energy vehicle sales increased by 21% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.2% [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Guotai (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting innovative enterprises in renewable energy, clean energy technology, and equipment manufacturing to reflect the overall performance of companies with technological advantages and sustainable development potential in the new energy sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

展望后市，申万宏源指出，2026年汽车"两新"补贴政策落地将修复市场对行业总量的担忧，为新能源板 块带来明确利好。补贴政策将有效撬动换购需求，利好主打中低端市场的新能源整车企业，同时带动零 部件企业2026年上半年业绩显著改善。叠加行业反内卷涨价周期与智能化升级趋势，新能源产业链盈利 弹性有望释放，建议关注业绩有支撑、估值低位的零部件企业，以及智能化优势突出的新势力车企与核 心供应商。 每日经济新闻 2025年12月31日，A股三大指数高开后集体翻绿，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）开盘后跳水下跌， 跌幅为0.94%。盘面上，罗博特科上涨4.77%，中来股份上涨2.56%，迈为股份上涨2.30%，中伟股份上 涨1.68%。截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达1483万元，居同类基金首位。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金。创业板新能源 指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏 （159368）高弹性，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025 ...

媒体记者从全国汽车标准化技术委员会获悉，12月30日，固态电池首个国家标准——《电动汽车用固态 电池 第1部分：术语和分类》公开征求意见。 征求意见稿明确了固态电池的相关术语、分类、编码等基础内容，标志着固态电池技术开始由实验室走 向产业化。 据高工产业研究院(GGII)不完全统计，2025年我国锂电产业链全环节公开投资项目(含锂电池及主要材 料、固态电池、钠电池)超282个，总投资额超8200亿元，同比增长超74%。 随着固态电池技术的快速发展，概念股备受机构关注。统计显示，四季度以来共有22只概念A股获得机 构调研，其中16股调研机构家数在10家及以上。 近日，媒体记者从全国社会保障基金理事会相关人士处获悉，全国社会保障基金理事会曾对多家固态电 池企业开展过调研与考察。 招商证券研报表示，传统锂电方面，储能需求爆发，带动电池扩产加速。 固态电池方面，固态产业化持续推进，目前固固界面问题是新技术生产工艺核心难点。 2025年，产业链上下游围绕固固界面问题，在材料端、制造端等提出多种解决方案，包括在电解质中引 入碘离子、等静压设备的持续迭代、ALD技术实现界面改性等。随着工艺成熟和降本持续推进，固态 电池量产 ...

Core Insights - The electric equipment industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the dual forces of AI computing power and global grid upgrades, creating a trillion-dollar equipment gap [1] - The investment logic in the electric equipment sector is shifting towards new demands centered on AI infrastructure and grid modernization, as traditional renewable energy installation growth slows [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The demand for electric equipment is primarily driven by three key factors: the rise of high-power computing, passive expansion of the North American grid, and stabilization of the renewable energy supply chain [2] - Global data center core IT power demand is expected to increase from 49 GW in 2023 to 96 GW by 2026, with AI infrastructure contributing approximately 85% of the new demand [1][2] - North America's grid is entering a passive expansion phase, leading to structural shortages in transformers and distribution equipment, which boosts demand for related devices [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies benefiting from the data center supply and power systems include Kehua Data, Kstar, Kelu Electronics, Magpower, Jinpan Technology, and Sifang Co [3][4] - Firms with overseas project experience and production capacity, such as Siyuan Electric, Pinggao Electric, XJ Electric, and Guodian NARI, are expected to benefit from grid expansion and upgrades [3][4] - The storage sector is seeing increased demand for grid regulation and data center backup systems, with companies like Sungrow Power, Canadian Solar, Haibo Technology, and Shuneng Electric positioned to benefit [3][4] - The European electric vehicle supply chain is driving strong demand for lithium batteries and materials, with companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Keda Materials, Tianqi Lithium, New Energy Technology, and Zhongwei Co expected to see growth [3][4]

盛新锂能：拟20.8亿元收购启成矿业30%股权，后者300万吨/年木绒锂矿正在推进开发建设 【投资经营】 【重要事项】 盐湖股份：拟46.05亿元现金收购五矿盐湖51%股权，加快推进世界级盐湖产业基地建设 中伟股份：锁定5-6亿湿吨镍矿资源的供应，掌控碳酸锂资源量超1000万吨 泰和科技：拟通过改造原磷酸铁锂生产装置生产磷酸焦磷酸铁钠，形成年产1万吨磷酸焦磷酸铁钠生产 规模 乾照光电：砷化镓太阳能电池相关产品已批量应用于国内在轨运行的大型商业航天星座组网卫星 星宸科技：车规级激光雷达SPAD芯片SS905HP与SS901适用于L3及以上场景，第一批产品将于2026年 上半年量产 【签约合作】 罗博特科：与英伟达共同开发的全球首个300mm双面晶圆测试平台已完成可靠性测试 精测电子：拟向客户出售多台半导体前道量检测设备等，合同总计金额达到5.71亿元 金盘科技：签订海外数据中心项目合同，金额约6.96亿元 九丰能源：2025年已连续九次为海南商业航天发射场长征系列火箭发射提供特燃特气保障 昊志机电：部分产品已在头部商业航天公司实现小批量应用并形成小幅盈利 *ST名家：拟与专业投资机构共同投资GPU算力芯片项目并 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) welcomed 6 companies for listing on December 30, marking a total of over 110 IPOs for the year, with a fundraising scale exceeding 280 billion HKD, leading globally among exchanges [1] - From January 1 to December 30, 117 companies were listed on the Hong Kong stock market, an increase of 47 compared to the previous year, with a total fundraising amount of 285.69 billion HKD, representing a growth of 224.11% year-on-year [1] - Emerging industries are particularly favored, with the highest number of new listings coming from the pharmaceutical, software services, medical equipment and services, hardware, and non-ferrous metals sectors, totaling 20, 19, 8, 7, and 7 companies respectively [1] Group 2 - In terms of regional distribution, Shanghai led with 20 companies listed as H-shares, followed by Guangdong with 17 and Jiangsu with 14 [2] - Notable Shenzhen companies that went public in Hong Kong include Guanghetong, Fengcai Technology, Zhouliufu, Bama Tea, and Woan Robotics [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the "A+H" listing model remains a focus, with 315 companies currently in the IPO process on the HKEX, including notable A-share companies like Nanhua Futures and Zhongwei Co., which have passed the hearing for H-share listings [2]