Market Overview - The FTSE 100 index in London closed at 9095.73 points, down 5.04 points or 0.06% from the previous trading day [1] - European major stock indices showed mixed results on the same day [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks led the gains in the London stock market, with notable increases including: - Glencore up 2.78% - Antofagasta up 2.53% - Coca-Cola European Partners up 2.33% - Mondi up 2.03% - JD Sports Fashion up 1.79% [1] - Service sector stocks experienced the largest declines, with significant drops including: - WPP down 6.2% - Entain down 5.82% - InterContinental Hotels Group down 3.9% - Rightmove down 3.71% - Sage down 3.09% [1] Other European Indices - The CAC 40 index in Paris closed at 7743 points, up 33.68 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 24162.86 points, down 29.64 points or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering August, the estimated production of refined copper in China is expected to decline, and imports are also expected to increase after the implementation of US copper tariffs. However, the tight supply of scrap copper is expected to alleviate the surplus to some extent. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and inventories face continued pressure to increase. At the macro - level, the marginal impact of the implementation of US counter - tariffs is not significant. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is acceptable. The strong performance of the domestic equity market, combined with the expectation of anti - involution policies, also provides support on the sentiment side. Overall, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US tariffs puts pressure on copper prices, while the expectations of a Fed rate cut and anti - involution policies still support prices, and copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Key Points Summary - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, the production of major overseas copper mining enterprises was lower than expected, and the supply of copper concentrates remained tight. Domestic refined copper production continued to grow, but it is expected to decline starting from August [9]. - **Demand**: In July, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow at a relatively high rate. In August, with the base increasing, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline. The manufacturing prosperity overseas is differentiated, and short - term demand expectations are neutral [9]. - **Imports and Exports**: In July, the import loss of SHFE copper narrowed, and the imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased. It is estimated that the import volume will further increase in August [9]. - **Inventory**: In July, the inventory of SHFE decreased, while the inventories of LME, COMEX, and the bonded area increased. It is estimated that there will be some inventory accumulation pressure both at home and abroad in August [9]. - **Summary**: Copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In July, copper prices oscillated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 2.29%, and the LME 3M copper contract fell 2.74%. Before the implementation of US copper tariffs and counter - tariffs, the market weakened. The US copper tariffs not meeting expectations caused US copper to soar and then plummet, and SHFE copper and LME copper traded weakly. The US dollar index rose 3.34%, and the offshore RMB depreciated 0.75% [17]. - **Spreads between Markets**: In July, there were more deliveries of LME copper, the spot supply was loose, and the monthly spread weakened. SHFE copper outperformed LME copper. Currently, the spot import of SHFE copper only incurs a small loss. The US 232 investigation on copper was finalized, and on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products. The tariff exceeding expectations caused US copper to rise significantly relative to LME copper, but the market only priced in about 30% of the tariff at most. On July 30, the US disclosed the details of copper product tariffs, which were significantly lower than expected. Only semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivative products were included, and cathode copper was not taxed. US copper fell significantly relative to LME copper, and the US copper arbitrage window was basically closed [20]. - **Inventory & Basis**: As of early August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 523,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons from the end of June. The total inventory has moved out of the relatively low level, but there are still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounts for a high proportion, about 45%). The copper inventory in China rebounded this month, with the exchange inventory at about 73,000 tons and the off - exchange social inventory at about 60,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased month - on - month, with an absolute amount of about 75,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased and rebounded to over 140,000 tons in early August, and the inventory has continued to increase recently. The total inventory of COMEX copper is about 234,000 tons. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed the Cash/3M from a premium to a discount, with a discount of over 60 US dollars/ton in early August. With no significant increase in Chinese imports and a tight supply of scrap copper, the spot remained tight, and the basis was relatively firm, reported at over 100 yuan/ton in early August [23][26]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of July, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 13.1%. However, long positions were reduced as the tariff implementation time approached, and the bullish sentiment of funds decreased marginally. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased, and the market was generally cautious before and after the tariff implementation. In August, the impact on market sentiment mainly comes from the Fed's monetary policy expectations, inventory changes, and trade situations [29]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mines**: The total output of 15 large and medium - sized copper mining enterprises was about 3.003 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, with a continued low growth rate. The output increase mainly came from BHP, Zijin Mining, MMG, Vale, CMOC, and Rio Tinto, while the decrease mainly came from Freeport, Anglo American, Teck Resources, and First Quantum Minerals. Rio Tinto's production guidance was raised this quarter, while Glencore and Teck Resources' production guidance was lowered. In June, the copper mine output in Chile decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in the output of the Escondida copper mine. Recently, the El Teniente mine under the state - owned Codelco in Chile had an accident and stopped production, resulting in significant disturbances in the mine - end supply [34]. - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In July, the domestic production of refined copper increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month as the smelter operating rate remained high. In August, there are still few maintenance activities at copper smelters, but due to the tight supply of raw materials, the output is expected to decline slightly. There will be more maintenance of domestic copper smelters in September, and the output is expected to decline further [43]. - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In July, the average spread between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,220 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated, and the marginal substitution of refined copper changed little. In August, the supply of scrap copper remained tight, the refined - scrap spread remained low, and the substitution of electrolytic copper from the consumption side is expected to decrease [46]. - **Demand - China**: Assuming exports were flat or slightly increased in July, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.4%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to July was about 9.395 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China declined in July, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal weakening of manufacturing prosperity [49]. - **Demand - Overseas**: In July, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The eurozone and India had relatively strong prosperity, while the US and Japan had relatively weak prosperity. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month in May 2025 but increased year - on - year, with a consumption growth of about 3.6% from January to May [67]. 4. Macro Analysis - In July, the US unemployment rate rose, and the non - farm data was below expectations. The inflation data in the US stabilized and rose slightly in June. Despite the strong resilience of US economic data, under political pressure, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 BP with a probability of over 90% at the September FOMC meeting [71]. - In July, the US dollar index rebounded and is currently in a stage of oscillating and rebounding. The 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is weak, providing a slightly bearish indication for copper prices [73].

标普全球 大宗商品资讯表示，尽管全球避免了严重衰退，但更高的关税预计将在2025年显著放缓全球 原油需求增长。目前预测需求将增加63.5万桶/日，不到特朗普4月宣布关税前预估的130万桶/日的一 半。下调预期的原因包括消费疲软。国际能源署（IEA）也警告称，如果形势恶化，主要增长中心可能 出现收缩。主要大宗商品贸易商也呼应了这一疲软前景。嘉能可上半年能源与炼钢煤贸易额同比大减 88%，而托克则警告称，在关税实施前的提前采购结束后，市场可能进一步放缓。标普指出，关税政策 的稳定性将是关键。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the lithium and copper mining sectors, particularly focusing on major Australian lithium mines and overseas copper companies. Lithium Mining Companies General Performance - Total lithium concentrate production for FY2025 is projected at 1.48 million tons, exceeding design capacity, although the CGP3 project's output has not met expectations [3][4] - Q2 production was stable at 340,000 tons, with sales increasing by 12% to 410,000 tons [4] - Cash costs rose to $238 per ton, a 7% increase due to declining ore grades [4] Future Outlook - For FY2026, lithium concentrate production is expected to increase to 1.5-1.65 million tons, with costs projected to decrease to approximately $202-$234 per ton [4] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drop from AUD 710 million to AUD 575-675 million [4] Specific Mines 1. **Pilbara** - FY2025 production reached 755,000 tons, exceeding guidance, with plans to increase to 820,000-870,000 tons in FY2026 [4] - FOB costs are expected to decrease to AUD 560-600 per ton [4] 2. **Marion Mountain** - Q2 production fell by 11% due to efforts to improve product grade, with an annual target of 514,000 tons [7] 3. **Wojena** - Q2 production increased by 30% to 166,000 tons, with costs dropping to AUD 641 per ton [7] - Annual production is projected at 502,000 tons [7] Market Conditions - The overall growth rate for major projects in FY2025 is limited, with a conservative outlook for FY2026 due to current low price environments [5] - Recent price increases above $700 may lead companies to adopt more aggressive production plans [5] Copper Mining Companies General Performance - In Q2 FY2025, 15 major overseas copper companies produced approximately 2.7 million tons, a 1.4% year-over-year decline but a 2.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][8] - For the first half of FY2025, total copper production was about 5.34 million tons, down 1.3% year-over-year [9] Company-Specific Insights - **Rio Tinto** saw a 9% increase in Q2 production, benefiting from improved underground capacity and ore grades [8] - **Glencore** experienced a 21% year-over-year decline due to low ore grades and recovery rates [8] Market Conditions - Q2 supply tightness is expected to support copper prices, with a continued tight supply forecast for the second half of the year [10] - The absence of significant economic downturns is likely to prevent substantial drops in copper prices, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] Additional Insights - The shutdown of the Jianxiao mine is expected to positively impact related companies, providing a potential turnaround for those near breakeven [6] - Zhongkuang Resources may benefit from stabilized lithium carbonate prices, with rising profits from copper and minor metals aiding in achieving market value targets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt market is entering a supply-driven price uptrend due to the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP [1][4]. Supply - Cobalt reserves are primarily concentrated in the DRC, with major producers including Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore. The DRC's export ban, first announced in February 2025 and extended in June, aims to manage inventory and support previously low cobalt prices [2]. - Indonesia's MHP production capacity is expected to ramp up significantly, with an estimated cobalt output of 28,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 9.7% of global production. However, this increase may not sufficiently offset the supply reduction from the DRC [2]. Demand - Global cobalt consumption is projected to reach 222,000 tons in 2024, with electric vehicles (43%) and consumer electronics (30%) being the primary demand drivers. Domestic cobalt consumption is estimated at 123,000 tons, with consumer electronics also representing about 43% [3]. - The demand for cobalt in electric vehicle batteries is expected to remain strong, despite some market share pressure from lithium iron phosphate batteries. The shift in NCM materials towards higher nickel content is anticipated to boost cobalt demand [3]. - In the consumer electronics sector, the demand for lithium cobalt oxide, a key component in lithium-ion batteries, is expected to rise due to advancements in AI technology and increased consumer demand for higher battery capacities [3]. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, China's imports of cobalt intermediate products saw a significant decline of 61.6% in June, indicating a real supply shortage. This trend is expected to continue, with imports remaining low and MHP production not compensating for the reduction [4]. - As of July 25, domestic electrolytic cobalt inventory was reported at 13,111 tons, a 300% year-on-year increase. However, the reduction in imports is likely to accelerate inventory depletion [4].

新华财经伦敦8月6日电（记者赵阳）英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数6日报收于 9164.31点，较前一交易日上涨21.58点，涨幅为0.24%。欧洲三大股指当天全线上涨。 个股方面，当天伦敦股市成分股中保险类个股领涨，位于涨幅前五位的个股分别为：希思科保险公司股 价上涨9.44%，贵金属生产商弗雷斯尼洛股价上涨8.88%，酒业公司帝亚吉欧股价上涨4.18%，英国石油 股价上涨3.09%，伦敦证交所集团股价上涨3.02%。 当天伦敦股市成分股中饮料类个股领跌，位于跌幅前五位的个股分别为：可口可乐欧洲太平洋合伙公司 股价下跌9.2%，可口可乐希腊瓶装公司股价下跌6.88%，嘉能可股价下跌5.41%，励讯集团股价下跌 4.4%，培生集团股价下跌3.86%。 欧洲其他两大主要股指方面，法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7635.03点，较前一交易日上涨13.99点， 涨幅为0.18%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于23924.36点，较前一交易日上涨78.29点，涨幅为 0.33%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Anti-Involution Policy Disturbs Prices, Fundamentals Determine Direction - Henan Region Lead-Zinc Research Report" [1] - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [2] Group 2: Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy indirectly boosts zinc prices by stimulating the sentiment of the black commodities market. However, most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and await specific follow-up measures [3][6] - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Supply pressure is increasing, and the surplus logic may become more apparent [3][9] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters [3][12] - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, but the upcoming peak consumption season may support demand. Lead smelters rely on by-products to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [3][14] Group 3: Impact of "Anti-Involution" Policy on Zinc - The "anti-involution" policy aims to clear out backward and ineffective production capacity, but it has no substantial impact on the zinc industry's fundamentals. In the short term, it indirectly boosts zinc prices by supporting steel prices and stimulating the restocking willingness of galvanizing enterprises [6] - Most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and have no extensive production plans [3][6] Group 4: Zinc Industry Chain Analysis - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Since the third quarter of last year, TC processing fees have rebounded from a low level, and the restart of high-cost mines has led to an increase in zinc concentrate supply [3][9] - Refineries and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a medium level in history. After the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in the first half of the year, the resumption of production and new project launches have increased supply pressure [3][9] - The surplus logic may become more apparent and be reflected in the accumulation of social inventories [3][9] Group 5: Zinc Smelter Profit Analysis - Zinc smelter profits are mainly calculated through processing costs, the 20/80 split, and by-product comprehensive returns. Different smelters have significant cost differences due to different raw material supply methods [11] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters. Sulfuric acid prices have been high, and small metal prices have been strong [3][12] - Many smelters are considering building new recycling production lines to increase the recycling and utilization of small metals [12] Group 6: Lead Industry Analysis - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, with the approaching peak consumption season of lead batteries, demand may increase [14] - Currently, demand remains good, and the proportion of long-term orders is stable. Lead smelters rely on by-products such as gold and silver to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [14] Group 7: Research Enterprise Details Enterprise A - Production: A lead comprehensive smelting enterprise with a relatively high operating rate. It relies on by-product profits to maintain production due to cost inversion [18] - Raw Materials: Purchases oxidized lead ore containing gold and silver from Inner Mongolia, etc. Non-lead concentrate raw materials include antimony-containing crude lead, lead-containing slag, copper soot, lead mud, etc. Raw material inventory can support one month of production [18] - Product Sales: Finished product inventory is generally low, but there is some inventory this year, all sold through long-term contracts to large battery enterprises [18] Enterprise B - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with stable operation of the primary smelter. Sulfuric acid production is about 900 tons per day, and the domestic downstream fertilizer demand and export orders are good [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic lead concentrate (about 50%), imports (about 30%), and the rest is recycled. Raw material inventory is about 20 days [19] - Product Sales: There is basically no finished product inventory, and products are mainly sold through long-term contracts. 10,000 tons of crude lead are directly sold to large smelters in Henan, and electrolytic lead is sold to downstream battery enterprises such as Tianneng [19] Enterprise C - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise operating at full capacity. It relies on by-product comprehensive returns to increase profits, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,500 tons per day and small metal production of about 100 - 150 tons per month [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic and imported raw materials. Lead ore supply is tight, while zinc ore supply is relatively abundant [19][20] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot inventory is 4,000 - 5,000 tons, mainly sold through long-term contracts. Lead ingots have no inventory and are mainly sold to traders. Zinc alloy customers are mainly in the automotive and hardware industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [19][21] Enterprise D - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with normal production scheduling. Annual mid-year maintenance has been completed [22] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate through long-term contracts [22] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot + alloy inventory is about 5,000 tons, and lead ingots have no inventory. Customers are mainly in Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, etc. Pricing is under pressure due to strong downstream customers [22] Enterprise E - Production: A zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise producing 1 and 0 zinc, mainly 0 zinc. By-product comprehensive returns are good, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,000 tons per day and low production costs [23] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate, considering grade and quality [23] - Product Sales: Inventory is at a low level [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the cobalt industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is experiencing a supply-driven price increase, with significant price recovery following the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][4]. - The DRC's export ban, effective from February 22, 2025, aims to reduce historical inventory and stabilize cobalt prices, which had previously dropped due to oversupply [2][45]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow, driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector and advancements in consumer electronics, with cobalt consumption projected to reach approximately 222,000 tons globally in 2024 [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Cobalt: A Strategic Battery Metal - Cobalt is recognized for its high melting point, magnetic properties, and unique catalytic performance, making it essential in battery applications [1][15]. - The price of cobalt has undergone three cycles of increase and decrease since 2017, with the current cycle being primarily supply-driven [13][14]. 2. Cobalt Raw Material Supply - Global cobalt reserves are concentrated in the DRC, which is the largest producer, contributing approximately 75.9% of the global cobalt output in 2024 [21][22]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to impact around 128,000 tons of global cobalt supply over seven months, tightening the market and potentially increasing prices [45][47]. 3. Demand for Cobalt - In 2024, the global cobalt consumption is projected to be about 222,000 tons, with electric vehicles accounting for 43% and consumer electronics for 30% of the demand [3][19]. - The demand for cobalt in high-temperature alloys is also expected to grow, particularly in aerospace and military applications [3][19]. 4. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, imports of cobalt intermediate products into China have significantly decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][9]. - The report anticipates further price increases for cobalt as imports remain low and demand recovers in the latter half of 2025 [4][9]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - Major players in the cobalt industry include Luoyang Molybdenum, which is the largest cobalt supplier globally, and other companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenmei, which are also significant contributors to cobalt production [6][20][41].

Group 1 - European companies reported strong earnings, boosting market confidence and leading to a collective rise in European stocks [1][2] - ABN Amro announced a new stock buyback plan after exceeding profit expectations, while Siemens Energy expects to reach the upper limit of its annual performance [2] - Fresenius SE raised its full-year sales forecast, and Bayer's sales exceeded analyst expectations [2] Group 2 - Despite some positive reports, Novo Nordisk's revenue growth fell short of expectations, although its weight-loss drug Wegovy performed better than anticipated [2] - Commodity giant Glencore's earnings did not meet expectations, and it canceled plans to move its primary listing from London to New York [2] - European stock indices showed positive movement, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening up by 0.5% and the DAX index also rising by 0.5% [1]

嘉能可表示，将继续在伦敦进行主要上市，并搁置迁至纽约的可能，因为这家瑞士矿业公司表示，迁至 纽约不会为股东带来更大的价值。嘉能可是英国富时100指数中最大的公司之一，该公司曾于2月份表示 正在考虑离开伦敦，转赴纽约上市，此举若实现，将损害伦敦作为全球采矿业主要枢纽之一的地位。 本文源自：金融界 ...