万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅延续震荡；多晶硅成交清 淡，观望为主 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/24 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 周度要点小结 ◆ 需求： 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.04万吨，环比延续下行。 百川盈孚口径DMC产量4.29万吨，环比-0.07万吨。 1-12月，铝合金累计产量1929.70万吨，累计同比+315.60万吨或+19.55%。 1-12月，我国工业硅累计净出口70.84万吨，累计同比+1.35万吨或+1.94%。 ◆ 库存：截至2026/1/23，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存51.78万吨，环比+0.74万吨。其中，工厂库存26.20万吨，环比-0.10万吨；市场库存 19.10万吨，环比持平；已注册仓单库存6.49万吨，环比+0.84万吨。 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 截至2026/1/ ...

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：美联储如期降息 库存小幅去化 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 观点：预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季施压上方空间 关注美联储会议 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位调整。宏观上就业市场数据好于预期，凸显出在美联储 预期降息之前劳动力市场仍有韧性，决策者可能会强调通胀风险，这可能制约进 一步的宽 ...

Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing upward momentum due to policy expectations and production cut news, but high inventory levels are limiting the rebound potential [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 2, domestic futures market saw significant increases in industrial silicon and polysilicon, with polysilicon main contract hitting a limit up at 35,050 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.99%, and industrial silicon main contract closing at 8,210 CNY/ton, up 4.79% [1] - The recent production cut news from industrial silicon manufacturers has contributed to price increases, although the actual timing of these cuts remains uncertain [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average cost of polysilicon has dropped to 34.52 CNY/kg, with recent price indices nearing this cost level, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - As of June 26, total polysilicon inventory reached 270,000 tons, marking a high point for recent years, with significant disparities among companies [2] - Despite a recent rebound in industrial silicon prices, the long-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the potential for further price increases [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamentals for industrial silicon show slight improvement, with major manufacturers reducing output leading to a more stable supply, but demand remains relatively weak [2] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with ongoing attention needed on industry hedging and production changes from major manufacturers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a significant price adjustment due to a combination of weak demand and supply disruptions, with the price of tin futures closing at 260,560 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Supply concerns have shifted focus to the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region, with current production only reaching 50% of planned capacity [1] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi operating at low capacity due to a shortage of tin concentrate [1] - The processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, leading some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Downstream demand is weak, with limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in transactions primarily driven by immediate needs [1] - The automotive electronics sector benefits from increased penetration of new energy vehicles, but overall procurement remains cautious, characterized by "small batches and multiple batches" [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident, with a decline in orders for photovoltaic components and consumer electronics, further suppressing tin price potential [1][2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook indicates a continuation of weak supply and demand, with a decline in orders from the end market during the off-season [2] - Domestic smelters are facing raw material shortages, leading to a decrease in operating rates and low processing fees for tin concentrate [2] - Current inventory levels are low, providing some support for prices, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent commitment from both China and the U.S. to take measures by May 14, 2025, to modify or cancel tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures has eased concerns over escalating trade tensions, leading to a slight rebound in aluminum prices due to improved demand expectations [1] Industry Summary - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points week-on-week to 61.9%, with a mixed performance across different sectors [1] - The operating rate for aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.2%, attributed to a lack of new orders [1] - The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, driven by the commencement of power transmission and transformation orders and the execution of previous orders [1] - The operating rate for national profiles slightly decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%, with some enterprises reporting a minor decline in operations [1] - Some photovoltaic sample enterprises maintained high operating rates, while others reported a decline in photovoltaic output to address weakening future demand [1] - Construction material enterprises reported weak order growth, focusing on maintaining current production levels [1] Inventory and Price Outlook - As of May 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous Thursday and a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous Tuesday [1] - It is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventory may break below the 600,000-ton mark this week [1] - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to support prices, but there remains pressure above key price levels, with expectations of price fluctuations within a range as consumption enters a low season and inventory pressures accumulate [1] - The industry outlook suggests a focus on macroeconomic sentiment and downstream operating rates in the short term, with attention to potential risks from macro expectations, geopolitical developments, mining recovery, and consumption release [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].