Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Transport regarding the suspension of special port fees for U.S. vessels and the USTR's decision to pause the 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries are expected to reduce trade friction and boost market confidence, leading to a recovery in booking volumes on China-U.S. shipping routes [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 10, the Transportation ETF (159666) rose by 1.45%, with HNA Technology hitting the daily limit, and stocks such as Xiamen Port Authority, Shanghai Port Group, and Liaoning Port Group showing strong performance [1]. - The Transportation ETF and its linked funds (019405/019404) are the only ETFs tracking the CSI Transportation Index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the transportation sector in A-shares [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The suspension of tariffs and port fee exemptions is expected to eliminate uncertainties in trade friction, enhancing the stability of global supply chains and improving market sentiment [1]. - Companies within the transportation sector are characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and stable performance, covering logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average stock index in Tokyo experienced a significant rebound, closing at 51,249 points, up 1,030 points (2.05%) from the previous trading day, surpassing the historical high of 50,512 points set on the 27th [2][4]. Group 1 - The rebound in the Nikkei index was influenced by positive market sentiment regarding the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][4]. - The US stock market also reached new historical highs, with major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising, which contributed to the bullish sentiment in Tokyo [4]. - Anticipation of progress in US-China discussions, particularly regarding synthetic drugs, further bolstered investor confidence ahead of the upcoming summit between the two nations [4]. Group 2 - The market is also reacting to expectations that the Federal Reserve may decide to lower interest rates in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which has encouraged buying activity among investors [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel in the non - ferrous metals industry are expected to be affected by macro and industrial factors. Copper and aluminum prices may maintain a relatively strong trend due to positive macro - sentiment and limited industrial drivers. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and nickel prices may be mainly influenced by macro factors and oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: LME copper futures price is 10871.5 with a 0.09% change, and the spot price is 10807 with a 0.21% change. SHFE copper price is 88370 (futures) and 88400 (spot) with changes of 2.14% and 0.74% respectively. The LME copper inventory is 500000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory is 135975 tons with a - 0.28% change [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Macro - factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and eased Sino - US trade friction are positive for copper prices. However, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, resulting in a slight increase in domestic copper inventories and a weak market [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: LME aluminum futures price is 2842 with a - 0.3% change, and the spot price is 1979 with a - 0.51% change. SHFE aluminum price is 21200 (futures) and 21360 (spot) with changes of 0.33% and 0.64% respectively. The LME aluminum inventory is 1500000 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is 469275 tons with a - 0.81% change [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Positive macro - sentiment and limited industrial drivers may lead to a relatively strong price trend. High aluminum prices boost sellers' enthusiasm but weaken downstream demand, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventories and a weak market [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: LME zinc futures price is 3010.5 with a 0.19% change, and the spot price is 3227 with a - 0.2% change. SHFE zinc price is 22365 (futures) and 22290 (spot) with changes of 0.09% and 0.04% respectively. The LME zinc inventory is 1500000 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory is 37050 tons with a - 1.46% change [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Positive macro - sentiment, a decrease in refined zinc production in September, and an increase in export expectations lead to an upward repair of the domestic zinc price. It is recommended to pay attention to LME zinc inventory and squeeze - out risks, and short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: LME nickel futures price is 15335 with a - 0.17% change, and the spot price is 15085 with a - 0.03% change. SHFE nickel price is 122400 (futures) and 123680 (spot) with changes of 0.46% and 0.2% respectively. The LME nickel inventory is 100000 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory is 244830 tons with a 0.15% change [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut supports the non - ferrous metals sector. Short - term nickel prices may be mainly influenced by macro factors and oscillate strongly. In the long term, there is still pressure of primary nickel surplus [1]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: LME tin futures price is 35710 with a 0.49% change, and the spot price is 35925 with a 0.04% change. SHFE tin price is 286720 (futures) and 283500 (spot) with changes of 0.57% and 0.85% respectively. The LME tin inventory is not clearly stated, and the SHFE tin inventory is 5766 tons with a 1.32% change [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the resonance of macro and industrial positives drives the copper price to rise with increasing positions. Since the news of mine - end contraction on September 24th, the copper price has been on an upward trend. Macro - easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while high overseas COMEX inventories exert pressure. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4]. - For aluminum, the improvement in the macro environment and the strengthening of industrial support lead to the increase of aluminum price with increasing positions. Recently, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have been decreasing, and the industry also supports the futures price. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues. The macro - market has warmed up, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector [9][11]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price shows an upward trend with increasing positions. The report presents various data such as the price trends of Shanghai and LME copper, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the long - short positions of COMEX non - commercial traders [13][14][20]. 2.2 Copper Mine Inventory Depletion - The report shows the trends of copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees, indicating the situation of copper mine inventory depletion [25][26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - Data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are presented, reflecting the inventory situation of electrolytic copper [27][28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is shown, including sectors like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [30][32]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The aluminum price rises with increasing positions. The report shows the price trends of domestic and LME aluminum, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the premium and discount situations [30][31][34]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina are presented, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [37][38][44]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are shown, indicating the inventory depletion situation of electrolytic aluminum [42][43]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial segment [45][49][51]. 4. Conclusion - Similar to the core views, for copper, macro - easing and supply contraction drive the price up, while high overseas inventories exert pressure. For aluminum, the macro environment warms up, and the industry provides support, with the price rising with increasing positions [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the short - term price is expected to decline, the medium - term to fluctuate, and the intraday to fall, with a recommendation to wait and see [1][3]. - For copper, considering the resurgence of mine - end disturbances, increased capital attention, and the warming of the macro - environment, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be bullish in the long run [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: fluctuate; Intraday: decline; Reference view: wait and see [1][3]. - **Driving Logic**: The Sino - US trade friction tends to ease in the short term after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reducing the demand for safe - haven assets. Also, the US CPI in September was lower than expected, and the market anticipates the steady progress of US interest rate cuts, leading to a short - term decline in the gold price. Attention should be paid to the support at the 20 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Short - term: rise; Medium - term: rise; Intraday: rise; Reference view: bullish in the long run [1][4]. - **Driving Logic**: After the conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session in China last week, the macro - environment has significantly improved. Against the background of supply contraction in the industry and the continued warming of the domestic and foreign macro - environment, copper prices have continued to rise with increasing positions. The preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US trade consultations over the weekend is also beneficial to copper prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 11,000 mark of LME copper [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] - Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Aluminum prices are showing a breakthrough trend, with the overall center of gravity trending upward. In the medium to long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and there is a certain certainty that the price will break through 21,000 this year and early next year [3]. - Alumina has temporarily formed a bottom around 2,800, but the reduction is not continuous. The short - term spot market remains weak, and the price decline has narrowed this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 0 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from - 105 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also weakened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 39 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 94 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract has increased slightly and is at a historical high, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest to Inventory Ratio**: The open interest to inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest to inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 2. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Bauxite**: As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly imported bauxite port inventory decreased by 971,300 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the national 43 - sample enterprise bauxite inventory increased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants increased. As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly Guinea port bauxite shipment volume increased by 1.5849 million tons compared with last week, and the Australian port shipment volume decreased by 588,300 tons. The Guinea and Australian sea - floating inventories both increased slightly. As of October 17, the bauxite outbound volume from Australian and Guinea ports increased slightly, and the SMM - caliber bauxite arrival volume increased significantly [23][28][29][34]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons. The in - plant inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and yard/on - the - way inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased. As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 4.061 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of October 16, the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 607,000 tons this week [52]. - **Fabricated Products**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory decreased. As of September, the SMM aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil finished product inventory ratios decreased slightly, while the raw material inventory ratios increased slightly [58][61]. 3. Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In September, the domestic bauxite supply was not loose and remained stable. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of provinces, the steel - linked Shanxi bauxite output increased slightly in September, while the SMM - caliber output decreased slightly. The steel - linked Henan bauxite output increased slightly, while the SMM - caliber output decreased. The steel - linked and SMM - caliber Guangxi bauxite outputs both decreased [64][67]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 24, the national total operating alumina capacity was 97.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.862 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term alumina supply remains loose [71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the steel - linked weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 852,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, remaining at a high level in the past six years. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten aluminum ratio increased seasonally, and the aluminum ingot casting volume is expected to decline month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the recycled aluminum rod output decreased by 520 tons week - on - week. The aluminum rod plant load decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod weekly output decreased by 900 tons week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip - foil output increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 900 tons. The domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprise operating rate decreased slightly by 0.1% week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip operating rate increased, but there are expectations of demand decline. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased, and there is a risk of weakening terminal demand. The aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly, but the photovoltaic profile was affected by the reduction of downstream component factory production. The aluminum cable operating rate increased slightly, the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat, and the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased [77][78][81][83]. 4. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly. The steel - linked metallurgical - grade alumina profit was 135.4 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit remained at a good level. Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan alumina profits remained stable, and Guangxi alumina had better profit performance due to relatively firm cost [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [97]. - **Downstream Processing**: The aluminum rod processing fee decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 5. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The alumina and SHFE aluminum import profit and loss have narrowed [107]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 14,000 tons month - on - month. The aluminum fabricated product export profit and loss showed differentiation, and the aluminum processing product export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [109][112]. - **Apparent Demand**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [116].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term support exists due to the possible end of the US government's "shutdown crisis". Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [1] - The risk of tariff and geopolitical disturbances weakens, so does the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals are in a volatile correction, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak due to the expected decline in polyester load during the traditional off - season, and the cost - end is also under pressure. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3] - Overseas weather improvement weakens the cost support for rubber, and consumption data is poor. However, the short - term strategy is to go long at a low level. Follow - up negotiation progress should be monitored [4] - Iron ore has an expected increase in supply and weak terminal demand, with a risk of fundamental weakening. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operation is recommended [5] - For silicon iron, short - term factors support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price [6] - Steel prices may oscillate with limited up - and - down space due to the weak demand and the expected increase in production cuts [6][7] - The short - term futures price of live pigs stops falling and rebounds, maintaining a bottom - oscillating rebound pattern [7] - The fundamental guidance for palm oil is unclear, and the domestic price is under pressure. Short - term low - buying and high - selling is recommended [8] - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the substitution of soybean meal [8] - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9] - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10] - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] - The short - term bond is bearish due to the slightly tightened capital. Treasury futures have more bullish factors but may still oscillate in the medium term [11] - Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the economic data disturbances after the US government's normal operation and grasp the long - buying opportunities [11] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, 2025. The four - week average export volume reached 3.82 million barrels per day, the highest since May 2023 [1] Gold - European leaders support negotiating for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the risk - aversion sentiment [1] PTA - This week's domestic PTA output was 1.3983 million tons, with a decrease compared to last week and the same period last year. The average cost, profit, and processing fee all decreased [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are under pressure, and China's rubber tire export volume increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The inventory in Qingdao Port is slightly decreasing [4] Iron Ore - From October 13 - 19, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of silicon iron decreased slightly. The cost has strong support, demand has toughness, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained flat, while other indicators such as capacity utilization and profitability decreased slightly. Steel demand is weak, but production cuts may relieve the supply - demand contradiction [6][7] Live Pigs - On October 21, the average pork price decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. The price of live pigs has rebounded slightly recently [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. The domestic inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals [8] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 42nd week, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in East and South China decreased. The substitution of soybean meal suppresses the consumption of rapeseed meal [8] Methanol - The signing volume of northwest methanol producers decreased, the price in Jiangsu decreased, and the capacity utilization rate and inventory showed different trends. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is stable and weak, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate [9][10] Plastic - The price of LLDPE in North China decreased, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most Shibor short - term varieties increased, indicating a slightly tightened capital, which is bearish for short - term bonds [11] Silver - Trump's planned visit to China weakens the risk - aversion sentiment. Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited due to the expected October interest rate cut [11]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver prices hitting their largest single-day declines since 2013 and 2021 respectively, amid easing US-China trade tensions and potential resolution of the US government shutdown [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On the evening of the 21st, spot gold prices fell by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while spot silver prices dropped by 8.7%, the largest since 2021 [1]. - COMEX gold futures decreased by 5.28%, and COMEX silver futures fell by 7.67% [1]. - As of the report, gold futures closed down 4.94% at $4144.1 per ounce, and silver futures closed down 6.37% at $48.11 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The drop in precious metal prices occurred against the backdrop of signals from the White House indicating progress on the government shutdown issue, which may have contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - Citigroup forecasts that the end of the US government shutdown and easing trade tensions may lead to a consolidation phase for gold prices over the next three weeks, adjusting their outlook from bullish to bearish [3]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices lacks a clear catalyst, indicating that investor sentiment has not reached excessive levels, which may suggest a rational boundary for gold price increases [3][6]. - WisdomTree's commodity strategist noted that while gold prices still have upward potential, the current aggressive rise may lead to technical corrections [3]. Group 4: Economic Factors - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, is seen as a core driver for rising gold prices, as lower interest rates enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3][4]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, particularly China's continuous purchases over the past 11 months, provides solid support for the gold market [3][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold prices, emphasizing that the current price adjustments should be viewed as opportunities for accumulation rather than reasons for panic [6][7]. - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment regarding economic conditions [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Sino-US trade friction eased over the weekend, leading to a collective higher opening of stock indices today, with the market moving in a volatile manner. The economic data for September showed that investment and consumption remained weak, and the real estate sector continued to be sluggish. However, the market has expectations for the weak fundamentals and is less sensitive to them, instead trading more on expected market conditions and anticipating the introduction of subsequent incremental policies. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly, and the open interest of index futures declined, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Except for the IH contract, the basis of index futures has significantly declined. In particular, the volume-weighted average basis of IC and IM has fallen to a historical low below 1%, suggesting that although market sentiment has improved, the strength and confidence are somewhat insufficient. The report believes that today's rebound is more of a repair of Friday's decline, so the rebound momentum and sustainability are not strong. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held this week, and with the support of policy利好 expectations, the downside space of stock indices is limited, and they are expected to move in a volatile manner [4]. Market Review - Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, closing higher collectively. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.53%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 200.511 billion yuan. Index futures all declined with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides had a candid, in-depth, and constructive exchange on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations around implementing the important consensus reached in the previous calls between the two heads of state this year and agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in September were 419.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5%. From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [5]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.64 | 0.50 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.2287 | 5.2619 | 13.4833 | 22.8283 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -5.7144 | -3.6593 | -3.7567 | -6.263 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.7451 | 8.9892 | 24.3216 | 35.4337 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.8343 | -0.803 | -0.3371 | -0.9885 | [5][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.63 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.98 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.12 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1737.605 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | -200.511 | [8]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is "Oscillating" [2] - The investment rating for soybean meal is "Oscillating with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions" [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans rose on October 17 due to strong domestic demand and improved prospects for Sino - US trade negotiations. The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also had their largest single - week gain in five weeks. Strong demand from US processing enterprises and record - high crushing rates alleviated concerns about insufficient Chinese demand. President Donald Trump's statement about a potential meeting with Chinese leaders further supported the market [2][4] - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - DCE Soybean 2601: The closing price in the day session was 4028 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (+0.25%); the night - session closing price was 4028 yuan/ton, unchanged (+0.00%) [2] - DCE Soybean Meal 2601: The day - session closing price was 2868 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan (-1.34%); the night - session closing price was 2895 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (+0.94%) [2] - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1021 cents/bushel, up 9.25 cents (+0.91%) [2] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 281 dollars/short ton, up 3.7 dollars (+1.33%) [2] Spot Prices - Shandong: The price of soybean meal was 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The spot basis was M2601 + 90, unchanged or up 10 yuan. Different time - period basis had different changes [2] - East China: The price of soybean meal at Taizhou Huifu was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The basis and its changes varied in different regions and time periods [2] - South China: The price of soybean meal was 2850 - 2990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or unchanged from the previous day [2] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 5.24 million tons per day, compared with 11.52 million tons two days ago [2] - The inventory of soybean meal was 104.67 million tons the week before [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 17, CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand and improved prospects for Sino - US trade negotiations. The market also had its largest single - week gain in five weeks [2][4] - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the reporting day [4]