2026年开年，资金借道跨境ETF持续向港股科技板块聚集。 Wind数据显示，2026年1月以来，超160只港股ETF（仅统计跨境ETF，下同）合计获得 283.89亿元净流入。其中， 约九成资金流入了港股通互联网ETF、恒生科技ETF等科技主题 产品 。 同时，净申购增量及基金净值增长共同推动港股ETF的规模扩容提速：截至2026年1月29日， 其总规模逼近8000亿元，较2025年底增加了近790亿元。 从产品端看，近期，港股科技主题基金产品有望加速"上新"。 据21世纪经济报道记者粗略统计，自2026年开年以来，公募基金管理人至少已上报了28只港 股主题基金（尚待批复）， 投资方向覆盖了港股科技、医药、红利、消费等多个赛道。而科 技主题基金依旧占据C位。 科技ETF持续"吸金" 经历一段时间的疲软之后，港股各行业板块在2026年初有所反弹。资金流入港股ETF的趋势 也仍在延续。 据Wind统计，截至2026年1月29日，开年以来，160多只港股ETF共计获得283.89亿元净流 入。 其中，共有10只产品的"吸金"规模达到10亿元以上，分别是：广发港股通非银ETF、富国港股 通互联网ETF、恒生科技ET ...

一问红利：2026 年是否会有超额？ 2025 年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以 AI 产业投资为代 表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI 强相关的"泛 AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从 2022 年至 2024 年上半年 的股息率 d 逐步开始重新转向增长率 g。展望 2026 年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A 的超额收益，核心判断还是在于 市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于 2026 年的基本面展望， 在 AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026 年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场 的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的 边际变化（增长率）而非股息率。所以 2026 年红利策略似乎很难获取超额收益。但这并不意味着红利策略不重要， 因为它依旧是很多投资者构建投资组合的压舱石和降低组合波动的重要工具：一方面，A 股权益资产内部红利资产的 估值水平最低，波动率也相对较低；另一方面，与主要城市二手住宅租金回报、10 年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several leading lithium iron phosphate (LFP) companies have announced production halts for maintenance, coinciding with a surge in downstream demand for lithium batteries, particularly in energy storage applications [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Deyang Nano (德方纳米) plans to conduct annual equipment maintenance starting January 1, 2026, for one month, which will involve technical upgrades to optimize production [1]. - Hunan Youneng (湖南裕能) will also perform maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, expected to reduce LFP output by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [2]. - Wanrun New Energy (万润新能) has been operating its LFP production lines at overcapacity since Q4 2025 and will reduce production starting December 28, 2025, with an expected decrease of 5,000 to 20,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The three companies are among the top producers in the LFP sector, with Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Deyang Nano ranking first, second, and fourth in market share, respectively [2]. - As of June 2025, Hunan Youneng's LFP production capacity reached 858,000 tons, Wanrun New Energy's capacity was 468,000 tons, and Deyang Nano's capacity was 370,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The demand for lithium batteries is experiencing explosive growth, particularly in energy storage, with Q3 2025 shipments reaching 165 GWh, a 65% year-on-year increase [3]. - Hunan Youneng reported a net profit of 645 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 31.51% increase year-on-year, with Q3 profit soaring by 235.31% [4]. - The recent production halts are seen as a strategy to strengthen pricing power amid rising costs and ongoing negotiations for price increases with downstream clients [5][8]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The LFP market has shifted from supply shortages to oversupply, leading to intense price competition and significant price declines, with LFP prices dropping from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton by August 2025, an 80.2% decrease [6]. - The industry has faced continuous losses for over 36 months, with an average debt-to-asset ratio of 67.81% among six listed companies, and only 16.7% of companies are profitable [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is signaling a strong desire to restore profitability and improve operational conditions, with maintenance actions reflecting a collective effort to enhance bargaining power and achieve reasonable profit margins [7][11]. - The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices, which reached 120,400 yuan per ton, is providing cost support for LFP producers and increasing their inclination to raise prices [8][9]. - The ongoing maintenance and production adjustments are not expected to significantly impact the companies' 2026 performance, as the overall reduction in output is relatively small [11].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment towards equity assets is optimistic among institutions [1] - The risk premium of the CSI 300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation compared to the declining risk-free interest rates [1] - Continued macro liquidity support is favorable, with a mild expansion expected in the credit cycles of major global economies, creating a conducive environment for equities and commodities [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand policies are continuously strengthening, while external demand shows signs of stabilization, which may further support corporate profit recovery [1]

Group 1: Profit Margin Decline - Industrial enterprises experienced an unusual decline in profit margins from January to October 2025, contrasting with the historical trend of improvement during the same period from 2020 to 2024[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to previous values[6] - Financial expenses are identified as a significant factor contributing to the decline in profit margins, with October 2025 showing negative profit growth year-on-year[6] Group 2: Consumer Goods Manufacturing Impact - The decline in profit margins is particularly pronounced in state-owned and foreign enterprises, while private enterprises maintained relatively stable margins[10] - Consumer goods manufacturing is the only sector within manufacturing that saw a decrease in profit margins, attributed to uneven domestic consumption recovery and challenges in passing on increased costs[10] - Public utility enterprises also faced a decline in profit margins, dropping from 7.05% to below 7%[11] Group 3: Ongoing Constraints on Profitability - The recovery of industrial enterprise profitability remains unstable, with ongoing constraints affecting the pace of recovery[17] - Limited recovery in factory gate prices and a slowdown in production rhythms due to anti-involution policies are contributing factors[17] - If price recovery in November and December is insufficient, there is a risk of a further decline in profit growth rates by year-end[17] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy measures falling short of expectations and geopolitical uncertainties[19]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative at -5.5%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[3] - The revenue growth rate also turned negative at -3.3% in October, indicating a significant decline in both profit and revenue[5] - The two-year compound growth rate for profits fell to -7.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profit recovery despite base effects being excluded[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Mining sector profits decreased by 12.0%, while manufacturing profits fell by 9.2% in October[6] - State-owned enterprises saw profit growth slow to 3.6% in October, down from previous high growth rates[6] - The computer electronics and automotive sectors were among the top contributors to profit growth, collectively adding 2.6 percentage points to overall profits[6] Group 3: Inventory and Turnover Issues - By the end of October, the nominal growth rate of industrial product inventories rose to 3.7%, indicating increased inventory pressure[6] - The inventory turnover days increased to 20.4 days, and accounts receivable turnover days rose to 69.8 days, highlighting growing turnover pressures[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for profit recovery in the first half of next year, supported by anticipated domestic demand policies and a possible global industrial cycle recovery due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[3] - The government is expected to implement framework policies to stabilize growth ahead of the upcoming Two Sessions[3]

Core Viewpoint - The pricing logic of Chinese assets has significantly changed since the introduction of the "924" policy last year, leading to reduced risks in corporate earnings and promising medium to long-term performance [1] Investment Strategy - Following the opening of the interest rate cut window by the Federal Reserve in September, the outlook for the manufacturing sector may become clearer, with investment themes likely to extend beyond the AI technology sector to include manufacturing [1] Recommended Sectors - Attention should be given to cyclical goods under the inflation narrative, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which are expected to solidify valuation bottoms due to the "anti-involution" trend [1] - Industries with improved export resilience and relatively low price increases, such as machinery, electrical equipment, and pharmaceuticals, are also recommended for investment [1] - After the recovery of corporate earnings, there will be investment opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors, supported by positive expectations regarding consumer policies, which may lead to a rotation into consumer and real estate sectors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Views - As the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. Coking coal supply continues to recover, while terminal demand remains stable with on - demand procurement. Coking enterprises' production control eases marginally, and short - term supply shows signs of convergence. Overall demand maintains resilience but lacks significant growth, and steel mills' inventory replenishment remains cautious. [4][81] - For coking coal, the weighted price of coking coal futures shows a callback during the rebound, with increasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 1030 - 1300. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] - For coke, the weighted price of coke futures also shows a callback during the rebound, with decreasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1450 - 1800. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Interpretation Domestic Market - Multiple departments are formulating growth - stabilizing plans for ten key industries to reverse the downward trend of industrial product prices and repair corporate profit expectations. The upcoming implementation of the revised "Anti - Unfair Competition Law" and the deepening of systematic governance frameworks in key industries, along with global fiscal and monetary policy support, are expected to strengthen corporate profit repair and capital market rebound momentum. [7] - In July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue turned positive to +0.1%, and tax revenue increased for four consecutive months. Government - funded revenue decline narrowed to - 0.7%, indicating short - term improvement in the land market but restricted by weak real - estate sales. The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure remained at 12.1%, with priority given to the people's livelihood sectors, while infrastructure expenditure was divided and technology expenditure decreased sharply. [7] International Market - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 22 increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Powell said the Fed is open to rate cuts due to potential downward risks to employment growth. [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Supply - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal was 2.779 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% with a declining growth rate. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal both decreased month - on - month. Although some coal mines' coal - output rhythm was affected by policies and over - production rectification, the overall resumption of production was not significantly disrupted. [9] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 62.5042 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.92% but a slight month - on - month increase. Mongolia and Russia's dominance in coking coal imports strengthened, accounting for 76.74% of the total. Mongolian coal focused on inventory reduction, with a 14.01% year - on - year decrease in imports. Russian coal arrivals increased by 3.94% year - on - year. Canada and Australia are expected to see stable growth in arrivals as some domestic terminal markets signed long - term agreements with them this year. [15] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of 523 clean coal sample mines and coking coal port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 coking coal - integrated steel enterprises increased slightly. The transfer from raw coal to clean coal was smooth, and the overall market was in an active de - stocking state. [25] 3.3 Coke Supply - From January to July 2025, the coke production was 292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.91%. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises and 247 integrated steel enterprises both decreased month - on - month. The average profit per ton of coke was 45 yuan. Some coking enterprises planned to increase production due to profit repair, but large - scale resumption of production was restricted by the previous sharp increase in coking coal prices. [34] Import and Export - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export volume of coke and semi - coke was 439,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.92%. The decline in export volume has little impact on the domestic market. Global economic slowdown, steel production contraction in Southeast Asian countries, and intensified international steel price competition have suppressed coke export demand. [43] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the weekly coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises remaining flat, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises remaining flat, and the port inventory decreasing slightly. Coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly, indicating restricted shipment rhythm and increased inventory pressure. Port inventory decline was related to trading rhythm and port - collection structure adjustment, with short - term circulation being sluggish. [46] 3.4 Iron Element Demand Iron Water Production and Consumption - On September 1, 2025, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel was 33 yuan, with a slight decline. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises remained high and flat month - on - month. The consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline and was at a historical low. Steel mills' inventory increased slightly, and the inventory - replenishment rhythm slowed down, with overall procurement based on rigid demand. [56] Terminal Demand - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28,822.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 12%. The cumulative export of steel products from January to July was 67.9824 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. Private investment growth decline deepened, and factors such as the real - estate market downturn and export decline suppressed private enterprises' investment ability and willingness. [64] 3.5 Basis and Term Structure - For coking coal, the basis is - 9 yuan, having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 85 to +138. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and reverse arbitrage can be carried out for cross - month arbitrage. [72] - For coke, the basis is - 38 yuan, also having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 132 to +55. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and month - to - month reverse arbitrage can be carried out. [72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The pricing stability has a restorative effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. The market's focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but be vigilant against the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4131.2, up 21.0; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4144.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2809.6, up 17.0; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2809.8, up 17.4. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6342.6, up 33.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6409.2, up 33.0. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 6883.6, up 21.2; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6954.2, up 21.2 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread is 1334.6, up 7.0; IC-IF current month contract spread is 2264.8, up 12.6. IM-IC current month contract spread is 545.0, down 12.4; IC-IH current month contract spread is 3599.4, up 19.6. IM-IF current month contract spread is 2809.8, up 0.2; IM-IH current month contract spread is 4144.4, up 7.2 [2] - IF current quarter - current month is -42.4, down 1.6; IF next quarter - current month is -74.8, down 3.4. IH current quarter - current month is 1.6, down 1.0; IH next quarter - current month is 1.2, down 0.8. IC current quarter - current month is -219.2, up 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is -357.6, up 4.6. IM current quarter - current month is -260.0, up 1.8; IM next quarter - current month is -442.2, up 4.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is -26,597.00, up 1315.0; IH top 20 net position is -17,108.00, up 424.0. IC top 20 net position is -15,559.00, up 1313.0; IM top 20 net position is -52,263.00, down 494.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4143.83, up 21.3; IF main contract basis is -12.6, up 5.1. SSE 50 is 2807.01, up 17.1; IH main contract basis is 2.6, up 3.1. CSI 500 is 6418.16, up 26.4; IC main contract basis is -75.6, up 17.4. CSI 1000 A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 6963.61, up 19.7; IM main contract basis is +552.93, up 166.82. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,261.98, up 12.7 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2270.00, up 261.04; Reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is -1607.0, up 1146.0 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) is +76.53 yesterday, -376.99 today. MLF data not provided. Rising stock ratio (daily, %) is 38.45, down 38.81. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 15.00, up 3.00; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 22.80, down 19.60; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) is 9.80, up 0.08; Volume PCR (%) is 57.21, up 1.86. Position PCR (%) is 76.85, up 1.74 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 5.10, down 2.30; Technical aspect score is 3.80, down 3.90. Capital aspect score is 6.40, down 0.70 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, rising for two consecutive months [2] - In July, CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pending: China's July financial data. On August 12 at 20:30, the US July CPI and core CPI. On August 14 at 20:30, the US July PPI and core PPI. On August 15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]