1月6日盘中，钯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至476.50元。截止发稿，钯主力合约报 474.25元，涨幅5.68%。 钯期货主力涨超5%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 钯期货不建议重仓持有 天风期货 钯区间思路为主 钯金供应在中期仍然短缺，库存低于多年低位，缓冲能力较弱。另外，俄罗斯占全球矿产供应40%以 上，地缘政治或贸易风险(如美国232调查)等仍将存在。除此之外，钯金ETF持仓量虽然从量级上较铂金 ETF仍有较大差距，但在今年以来被持续增持，显示投资者情绪回暖，随着国内铂钯期货上市，投资热 情有望扩大。低库存+高供应集中度+潜在投资流入，使得钯金成为高波动性博弈产品。若关税落地或 供应链中断，价格短期反弹幅度可能较大，但缺乏长期基本面支撑，不建议重仓持有。 天风期货：钯区间思路为主 节后反弹的具体原因分析为，前期钯金经历高位掣肘后的技术性反弹，以及假期期间外盘情绪回温与多 头资金博弈政策窗口期的共同结果。近期地缘政治风险溢价有所提升，市场风险偏好传导至贵金属定 价，支撑短期钯金期货价格。然而，当前市场的核心特征是高波动与高不确定性。在钯金市场缺乏持续 性去 ...

国内宏观政策利好不断，近期中央提前向地方下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债，用于支持消 费品以旧换新，以满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。为提振消费，政策打出"组合拳"，加强财政金融协 同以放大政策效能，进一步增强了市场乐观情绪。 基本面，沪锌社库续降、供应收缩预期强，现货保持升水，国内炼厂减产延续，1月锌锭产出预计环比 基本持平，对锌价形成支撑。消费端虽进入行业淡季，但在"十五五"开局、开门红预期下，消费仍具韧 性。 整体来看，锌基本面中性，矛盾有限，资金交投热情一般，暂呈震荡态势，不过宏观偏好主导，今日现 货锌价或上涨，参考价格区间为2.33 - 2.45万元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】美指走软及铜铝大涨催生市场乐观情绪，隔夜伦锌收涨2.59%；沪锌社库续降、供应收 缩预期强，现货升水及宏观偏好主导，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌震荡走强，盘中走势强劲，开盘报3139.5美元/吨，高点报3213.5美 元，低点报3136美元，尾盘收于3208美元，涨81美元，涨幅2.59%；成交量16928手增加9214手， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, China is expected to receive 15 shipments of New Zealand softwood logs, an increase of 6 shipments from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 67% [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports is 510,500 cubic meters, which is an increase of 204,500 cubic meters from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [1] - The average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 7.75% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 2.54 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 2.31% [1] - Radiata pine inventory stood at 2.16 million cubic meters, down 1.37% week-on-week [1] - North American wood inventory remained stable at 70,000 cubic meters, while spruce/fir inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters to 150,000 cubic meters [1] Group 3: Futures Market Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the weekly volatility in the futures market remains low, fluctuating between 765 and 785 yuan per cubic meter, with the main contract holding a position of 11,000 lots, indicating a capital outflow [2] - Newhu Futures noted that while inventory has decreased and is below last year's levels, the pressure from incoming shipments is expected to rise in the coming weeks, with terminal demand showing no significant improvement [3] - The overall market is characterized by a lack of major contradictions in fundamentals, with domestic and international price discrepancies limiting significant downward movement, leading to expectations of low-level fluctuations in the main contract [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五，国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》。文章指出，对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型 产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。完善重大项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控 要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设。在政策预期提振下，今日铜价再度大涨，日内最大涨幅超4%，再次 刷新年内高点。 基本面来看，库存方面，SMM周四统计国内精炼铜社会库存较周一增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。需求方 面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储流动性呵护以及明年全球经济增 速修复预期，继续推动宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏强走势。因此，低库存与需求韧性 仍构成下方支撑，但价格高位或抑制部分实货买盘，且临近年关，下游需求或进入淡季叙事，国内或逐 步进入累库阶段。短线关注贵金属过热情绪及大幅波动风险是否外延至有色市场，但策略上仍建议维持 逢低布局思路，不宜过度追高。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信 ...

光大期货也在研报中提及此事，其指出，定价机制和价格传导方面对部分环节企业经营造成压力，关注明年强需求是否能够得到验证。 一德期货分析认为，材料厂万润、裕能表示部分产线将要减产，欲在长协谈判中获得主动权。 市场重点关注的碳酸锂的库存有何变化？ 2025年12月26日，国内碳酸锂期货价格延续凌厉涨势，日内大幅上涨超过6%，盘中一度突破13万元/吨整数关口，创下2023年11月以来的新高。至此，碳酸 锂期货价格已实现连续三个月上涨，本周累计涨幅超过15%。 综合多家机构观点指出，此轮突破性上涨，是产业定价规则重塑、供应端扰动消息、低库存现实与市场乐观预期共同催化的结果。一方面，行业龙头企业宣 布改变现货定价基准，直接与期货价格挂钩，这一重大规则变化显著增强了期货价格对现货市场的锚定力和影响力。另一方面，下游正极材料企业宣布检修 减产计划，并可能在长协谈判中争取主动。 定价体系重大变革，期货价格影响力跃升 据21财经报道，12月25日，一份关于锂盐现货结算价调整的文件在行业内流传。文件显示，自2026年1月1日起，天齐锂业所有产品现货交易结算价将不再参 考现有标准，调整为参考Mysteel（上海钢联）的电池级锂盐价格 ...

2026 年金属年度策略：百花盛开 20251207 摘要 全球经济预计软着陆并复苏，制造业 PMI 回升至 50 以上，叠加低库存 和弱美元周期，为有色金属市场提供有利宏观环境，预计美国 2026 年 或降息两到三次，高赤字和宽财政政策短期内难以改变。 中国出口压力缓解，房地产下滑趋势收敛，国内流动性与全球同步宽松， 中美经济前景总体乐观，低库存和供给侧受限对商品有利，预计 2026 年全球贸易活力依旧旺盛，钢铁出口需求相对较好。 黄金边际定价者变化，央行增持黄金以保值，目前黄金在央行储备占比 约 20%，远低于历史中位数，未来金价预计维持平台震荡或震荡上行， 即使金价不上涨，多数矿业公司也具备成长潜力，预测 2026 年金价可 能涨超 4,800 美元。 预计 2026 年全球电解铝增量约 120 万吨，增速 1.7%，2027 年增至 220 万吨以上，增速超 3%。中国电解铝需求预计增长 2%，海外需求 增速 2.4%-2.5%，需求增速高于供给，低库存下电解铝价格或进一步 上涨，看好电解铝市场表现。 Q&A 请简要介绍一下 2026 年有色金属行业的整体预期。 2026 年预计将是有色金属行业表现非 ...

Group 1 - Recent copper price movements have been influenced by supply-side production cuts and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a strong rally followed by a pullback due to hawkish signals from the Fed [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains marginally loose, but its positive impact on the market is limited, with expectations for a rate cut in December now below 50% [1] - Supply uncertainties persist, with a decrease in refined copper production and imports in September, while global copper markets may face a supply gap of approximately 150,000 tons by 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The inventory structure shows regional mismatches, with high Comex copper inventories and slight accumulations in SHFE, while LME inventories are declining [2] - The TC (treatment charge) remains at historically low levels, indicating ongoing tightness in copper ore supply, with upcoming negotiations expected to influence TC levels for 2026 [2] - As the fourth quarter progresses, copper prices are likely to be driven by supply and demand dynamics, with macroeconomic stimuli failing to create a sustained trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in prices, while demand remains optimistic due to seasonal consumption expectations [1][2]. Supply Side - Ethylene glycol overall operating load is at 75.13%, an increase of 1.97% compared to the previous period [1]. - The operating load for ethylene glycol produced via oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation is at 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% from the previous period [1]. Demand Side - Demand is improving, with expectations for a consumption peak in September and October, as downstream polyester and terminal weaving operations show signs of recovery [1]. - The weighted profit for downstream polyester is 19.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.4 yuan/ton [1]. - Polyester's weekly capacity utilization rate is at 86.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points, which is near the neutral position over the past five years but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Weekly polyester production is at 152.2 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2 million tons, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 28, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is 413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous Monday and a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous Thursday [1]. - The expected total arrival of ethylene glycol in East China next week is 101,700 tons, with a reduction in delivery pace leading to a decrease in inventory [1]. Market Outlook - The main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market is between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels [2]. - There is no significant accumulation pressure observed in August and September, and the recent decline in arrival volumes is at a low level, suggesting limited downward space for ethylene glycol prices [2]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at lower price points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market shows signs of slight price strengthening, with hot-rolled steel outperforming rebar, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [1][6]. Supply - The production of pig iron has exceeded expectations, increasing by 2.6% to 2.424 million tons, while scrap steel consumption remains stable at 0.505 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 4.5% to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production down by 7.6% to 2.096 million tons and hot-rolled steel down by 2% to 3.21 million tons [3]. - The year-on-year growth rate of iron element production from January to June is 3.2%, with an estimated annual growth rate of 3.3% due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remains stable at high levels, with a slight decrease of 3,000 tons to 8.7 million tons in the latest period. The demand in June and July did not decline further, indicating better-than-expected performance during the off-season [4]. Inventory - Recent production has fluctuated with apparent demand, leading to stable inventory levels. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,000 tons to 13.377 million tons, with rebar inventory increasing by 30,000 tons to 5.43 million tons, while hot-rolled steel inventory decreased by 26,500 tons to 3.43 million tons [5]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production in Shanxi is gradually recovering, but recent strong demand from traders has kept spot prices firm. Iron ore inventory is expected to see slight accumulation due to increased shipments, but the price elasticity remains weak due to expectations of ample supply [2]. - Profit margins for steel products rank from highest to lowest as follows: steel billet, hot-rolled steel, rebar, and cold-rolled steel [2]. Market Sentiment - Weekly data indicates a slight decrease in production following apparent demand, with overall demand showing minimal decline. The demand for hot-rolled steel remains high year-on-year, while rebar demand has decreased [6]. - Steel mills are purchasing iron ore, leading to a continuous decline in port inventories, which, combined with resilient seasonal demand, supports an upward trend in iron ore prices. The sentiment for commodity trading remains positive, with expectations of supply contraction [6]. - Resistance levels for rebar and hot-rolled steel have been cleared, with the next resistance levels to watch at 3,250 and 3,400 yuan respectively [6].