深圳商报记者 黄磊 近期，全球货运市场呈现复杂态势，运价呈现"低位反弹"特征。一边是持续近3周的整体运价疲软；另 一边则是头部船公司MSC、达飞、赫伯罗特等密集宣布，将于2025年12月上调多条国际航线的运费。 业内人士指出，本轮涨价并非传统意义上的需求拉动，而是在地缘冲突、气候因素与船公司经营策略共 同作用下出现的"淡季涨价"现象。 多家公司宣布上调运价 MSC宣布自2025年12月1日起，将全面上调从远东港口至北欧、地中海、黑海等地区的运费：北欧航线 20尺柜、40尺柜分别上调至1860美元和3100美元；黑海航线则分别提升至2850美元和3900美元。 另一家头部航运企业达飞（CMA CGM）宣布，自2025年12月1日至12月14日，将上调从远东到地中海 和北非的FAK费率，最高每40尺柜6300美元。 马士基方面计划从12月25日起，对从中东与远东至莫桑比克贝拉港的货物征收目的地拥堵费（CFD）； 与此同时，自12月1日起，公司将在罗马尼亚康斯坦察南集装箱码头收取新的"进口检验扫描费"，每箱 25欧元。 赫伯罗特宣布将提高远东和欧洲之间的FAK费率，自2025年12月1日开始生效。这一调整适用于20 ...

德银表示，黄金刚性的官方需求正在取代价格敏感型的消费需求，预计2026年官方需求将回升至1053吨/年，同时黄金ETF资金流入的正常化，将2026 年平均价格目标从此前的4000美元/盎司大幅上调至4450美元/盎司。白银、铂金和钯金共同迎来上涨利好，德银预计明年白银和铂金的供需将持续处于 赤字状态，白银2026年目标价高至55美元/盎司。 据追风交易台，德银在最新报告中大幅上调预期， 将2026年平均价格目标从此前的4000美元/盎司上调至4450美元/盎司，年度价格区间预计为3950- 4950美元/盎司， 最高可能触及4950美元/盎司意味着金价或冲击5000美元大关。 德银指出，这种结构性牛市的驱动力已发生根本转变，刚性的官方购买正在取代价格敏感型的消费需求。正如报告所强调的： 缺乏价格弹性的央行购买和ETF投资需求，正在取代对价格敏感的珠宝消费需求，成为黄金市场的主导力量。同时，总体需求增长超过供应增长，这种供需错配 为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。 尽管看多逻辑坚实，德银也提示了潜在的下行风险。若股市出现深度回调，或美联储2026年宽松力度不及市场预期（德银预测降息50个基点，低于市 场预期的93个基 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley warns that Brent crude oil prices could drop to $30 by the end of 2027 due to worsening supply-demand imbalances, with current prices around $60 [1][9] - The recent drop in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical developments, particularly the progress towards a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which has led to expectations of smoother Russian oil exports [5][7] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with global oil supply growth outpacing demand growth by three times from 2025 to 2026, leading to a projected average Brent crude price of $57-$58 in 2026-2027 [9] Group 2 - The Trump administration is seen as a significant factor behind the declining oil prices, with the President advocating for lower oil prices to combat inflation and pressure the Russian economy [11][13] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have surged to nearly 85%, influenced by recent economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials [14] - Asset prices are being reassessed in light of these developments, with oil prices dropping significantly, while stock markets reacted positively to the prospect of lower interest rates [16]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are exceeding expectations, with winter conditions affecting lithium extraction in key regions like Qinghai and Tibet, leading to a projected capacity reduction of 15-20% [1] - Core mining operations are facing challenges, such as the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is unable to resume production due to incomplete mining rights processes, and the shutdown of some mica mines due to low lithium carbonate prices, resulting in ongoing supply contraction [1] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the energy storage market, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to surge by 75% year-on-year by 2025, and domestic new energy storage installations doubling [1] - The demand for power batteries continues to grow, with October vehicle installations increasing by 10.7% month-on-month, driven by a "rush to install" ahead of the end of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1] - A consensus reached between China and the U.S. to suspend lithium battery export controls for one year has further amplified demand [1] Inventory and Price Movements - Lithium carbonate social inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, dropping to a two-year low of 109,000 tons, with turnover days falling to 28.1 days, the lowest since futures listing [2] - The supply-demand gap in November is projected to reach 16,800 tons, widening from 12,600 tons in October, creating a solid foundation for price increases [2] Technical and Market Sentiment - After experiencing significant volatility, lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded, with a notable drop of 9% on November 21, followed by a further decline of 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton, nearing industry cost lines, indicating strong rebound demand [3] - Policy impacts are gradually dissipating, as adjustments to trading fees and limits on November 24 led to a temporary price drop, but the market quickly absorbed this negative news, allowing prices to rise again based on fundamental pricing logic [3] Industry Chain and Financial Support - The price transmission within the industry chain is evident, with upstream lithium spodumene prices reaching 3,000 USD/ton, increasing production costs for lithium carbonate, while downstream processing fees for lithium iron phosphate have also risen significantly [4] - The futures market for lithium carbonate has maintained a holding volume of over 1 million contracts, attracting significant attention from investors, with trading volumes on November 25 reaching 511,300 contracts, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4]

受现货供应趋紧和市场对美联储下月降息预期增强的双重提振，铜价走高，凸显了宏观经济前景与实体供需基本面的共同作用。 引发市场乐观情绪的主要催化剂是美联储官员的最新表态。美联储理事Christopher Waller以美国劳动力市场疲软为由，主张下调利率，这番言论 巩固了市场对于进一步货币宽松的信心。通常而言，更低的借贷成本对工业金属构成利好。 与此同时，实体市场的供应紧张信号愈发明确。伦敦金属交易所（LME）现货铜较三个月期期货的升水（cash-three-month spread）跃升至超过20 美元/吨，创下约五周新高，表明交易员愿意为即期交付的铜支付更高溢价。 受此影响，周二伦铜期货价格上涨0.98%至10878美元/吨，纽约商品交易所（Comex）的期铜价格同样走高。其他基本金属中，铝价上涨0.4%， 锌价上涨0.5%。 供应紧张加剧，冶炼费用跌至新低 | 概览 | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1m | 5m | 15m | 30m ...

来源：华创期货 【摘要】时隔4个多月后，主力合约期价再度跌破1000元/吨的关键整数关口，后市底在何方？ 【温馨提醒】市场风云变幻，期市波动起伏。光靠看盘可不够！加入我们的专属社群，专业分析师实时 直播、金牌客服推送核心研报等。点击专属客服通道，立即加入交流群！立即进群>> 现货价格持续下探 国庆假期后，生产企业为缓解库存压力，进行过一轮降价促销。沙河地区大板成交均价从10月初的1237 元/吨左右一路跌至10月末的1117元/吨附近。10月末11月初，现货价格短暂走稳，但在终端需求持续偏 弱的压力下，11月中旬现货价格再度走弱，Mysteel数据显示，截至10月20日，沙河5mm大板浮法玻璃 市场价为1070元/吨，创一年多新低，持平去年（2024年）9月下旬的低点。主销区价格的下跌进一步拖 累了整体市场情绪。 冷修难阻跌势，供应调整缓慢 面对持续低迷的市场，虽然部分厂家已开始通过产线冷修来调整供应，但效果尚不明显。目前价格来到 年内低点，继续冷修的预期加大，也刺激了一部分中下游需求。然而，供应端的调整速度明显跟不上需 求下滑的步伐，玻璃企业库存及中游贸易商库存均大幅高于去年同期，导致供需失衡格局持续。 行 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心上移，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘上涨 0.83 美元至 | | | | 60.74 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.69 美元 | | | | 至 64.89 美元/桶，涨幅 1.07%。SC2512 以 466 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.4 元/桶，涨幅 1.17%。新换主力合约 SC2601 合约收盘在 465.7 | | | | 元/桶，上涨 3.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.74%。API 数据显示，上周，美 | | | | 国 API 原油库存+444.8 万桶，之前一周+130 万桶。上周 API 库 | | | | 欣原油库存-79 万桶。上周 API 成品油汽油库存+154.6 万桶、馏 | | | | 分油库存+57.7 万桶。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 2025 年 10 | | | 原油 | 月汽油产量为 1345.7 万吨，同比增加 1.7%，1-10 月累计产 ...

Core Insights - The caprolactam market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance due to substantial capacity expansion over the past few years, leading to intensified competition and a continuous decline in product prices [1][2] - As of November 3, the market price for caprolactam has dropped to 8,050 yuan per ton, marking a 28% decrease from the year's high of 11,225 yuan [1][2] - The industry is expected to face ongoing price declines in 2025, with analysts noting a pattern of "high opening, continuous decline" in market trends [2] Price Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the caprolactam industry's capacity is projected to increase from 4.33 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.56% [2] - The price of caprolactam peaked at 11,225 yuan in mid-February 2023 but has since entered a prolonged downward trend due to weak downstream demand and external market pressures [2] - Despite temporary price increases from May to August due to favorable factors, the overall price trajectory remains downward due to significant de-stocking pressures in downstream sectors [2] Regulatory Impact - New EU regulations on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have imposed strict limits on residual solvent content in caprolactam products, exacerbating domestic supply-demand mismatches and further driving down prices [3] Industry Profitability - The persistent low prices have severely impacted profitability across the entire caprolactam supply chain, with significant losses reported in both upstream and downstream sectors [4] - As of mid-November, the caprolactam industry is facing substantial losses, with per-ton losses exceeding 600 yuan in the latter half of the year [4] - The entire supply chain is experiencing negative margins, with upstream cyclohexanone and downstream nylon 6 products also reporting losses [4] Supply Adjustment Measures - In response to the challenging market conditions, caprolactam producers are implementing voluntary supply adjustments, including a 20% production cut to alleviate inventory and price pressures [5][6] - The industry is transitioning from a state of excess inventory to a more balanced supply-demand situation, with expectations of further price stabilization and potential increases in the near future [6]

对于深谙周期之道的投资者而言，真正的挑战从来不在于追逐那些已经明朗的数据，而在于能否敏锐捕捉行业在萌芽阶段 发出的微弱信号：那些供需之间难以察觉的失衡，或是市场结构在无声中发生的根本性转变。 眼下最典型的例子，莫过于电商行业。 今年以来，电商平台普遍面临的增长压力已有目共睹。这一点在最新发布的三季度财报中得到集中体现：京东陷入"增收不 增利"；拼多多增速则连续两季降至个位数。 过去十年被视为"流量永动机"的电商业，仿佛在一夜之间告别了永不落幕的增长神话。与此同时，电商市场涌入众多新玩 家，如小红书与B站，表面繁荣之下，实则昭示行业已走到关键转折点： 当前电商行业供给增速已超过需求增速，进入充分竞争阶段。头部电商为寻求新增量不断拓展业务边界，导致利润明显下 滑，行业正式步入出清期。 1）需求侧：补贴驱动增长，自然增长乏力 今年前三季度，在补贴政策推动下，实物商品网上零售额整体增长6.5%，高于社会消费品零售总额增速。然而，增量主要 集中在国家补贴发放的第一季度。 从趋势看，二、三季度同比增速均出现不同程度下滑，其中三季度下滑幅度达2.5%。 电商，正式步入出清期。 01 电商进入同质供给过剩的出清周期 一切周期 ...