金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/10/13 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纯碱价格下跌：供需过剩主导的必然 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2026年10月纯碱价格下跌，核心源于供需失衡的持续加剧。供应端，远兴能源280万吨天然碱产能、云图 应城新都70万吨联碱产能已陆续释放，湖北金江新材料200万吨产能也于年底投产，全年新增产能达550万 吨，总产能逼近4700万吨，产量同比增幅超10%。 截止到2025年10月9日，国内纯碱厂家总库存165.98万吨，较节前（9月29日）涨幅5.99万吨，涨幅 3.74%。需求端难改疲软，重碱受平板玻璃需求持续下行、光伏玻璃耗碱增量仅70万吨的拖累，未能形成 有效支撑。 轻碱虽保持增长，但覆盖的多元下游增速有限，不足以对冲缺口。更关键的是，出口增速放缓后，国内全 年450万吨的供需差难以消化，交割库库存维持历史高位，市场去化压力显著，尽管天然碱法仍有微薄利润， 但氨碱法、联碱法普遍亏损的格局未变，成本支撑弱化。 短期来看，过剩格局难逆转，价格或延续弱势震荡。 | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GO ...

阿拉格齐重申，双方谈判议题仅限于核问题，这是伊朗一贯立场。他指出，由于在纽约联合国大会期间 发生的事件及其后续发展，伊朗目前"没有看到重新开启谈判的基础" 。阿拉格齐透露，今年纽约联合 国大会举行期间双方确实曾进行接触，伊朗曾表示愿就相关问题进行磋商。但美方立场是，如果伊朗交 出所有60%丰度的浓缩铀，他们只会将"快速恢复制裁"机制推迟六个月。阿拉格齐称，这是"过分、完 全不合理、绝对不可接受的立场"，伊朗已明确表达拒绝，因此这次接触未能取得成果。 阿拉格齐表示，伊朗曾告知斡旋方，"没有理性的人会接受这种要求"。并称如果有关国家愿意永久放 弃"快速恢复制裁"机制，让安理会第2231号决议在10月18日按期终止，并将伊朗议题从安理会议程中彻 底删除，那么相关请求才值得考虑。"但美国从未接受这一点。" 刚刚，伊朗外长透露拒绝美方要求原因。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月11日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在被问及与美国重启谈判及其条件时表示，伊 朗对美国的立场始终明确，"如果他们准备在平等的基础上，为实现共同利益、基于相互尊重进行谈 判，并且不把谈判与'命令'混为一谈，愿意开展公平、平衡的对话，我们也会准备好进行这样的谈 判 ...

2025.10.12 本文字数：2060，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 齐琦 在金价突破每盎司4000美元、全球贵金属市场持续升温的背景下，现货白银也迎来改写历史的时刻。 10月9日，伦敦白银现货价格首次突破50美元/盎司关口，最高触及51.23美元/盎司，创下历史新高。截 至10日，报50.126美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅达到73.53%，表现甚至优于同期上涨约53%的现货黄金价 格。 上海一位贵金属分析师对记者称，白银同时具备金融与工业双重属性，在光伏、新能源等绿色需求快速 扩张的背景下，价格弹性明显高于黄金，短期仍有望继续领涨贵金属板块。 伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）发布的报告显示，分析师们对于白银价格的乐观态度不仅与其工业和投资 需求有关，也将白银与黄金价格走势通常较为相似的趋势纳入了考量范围。且对供需失衡加剧的担忧以 及各国央行逐渐放宽的货币政策，都将使得投资者对白银的购买兴趣持续增加。 金价大涨带动白银创新高 当前白银的强势表现主要受美联储降息预期升温、地缘政治风险加剧以及工业需求持续增长等多重因素 推动，同时投资者对白银ETF的配置热情也为银价提供长期支撑。 尽管相较于每盎司4000美元的 ...

首先，让我们来细致地核算一笔账，审视房价从每平米两万五骤降至一万五，对购房者意味着什么。以 一处建筑面积一百平方米的住宅为例，原价两百五十万，现今市值仅剩一百五十万，凭空蒸发了一百 万。若购房者当初支付三成首付，即七十五万，贷款一百七十五万，那么此刻卖房，不仅首付付诸东 流，还须额外垫付二十五万才能结清贷款。 我的朋友小李便深陷其中。他于2020年在某三线城市购入一套一百一十平米的新房，首付垫了八十万。 如今，同小区同户型的房源，售价已从每平米两万三跌至一万四上下。他苦笑着自嘲："卖房的话，首 付没了不说，还得再掏出二十多万，这几乎是我两年的全部薪水啊。" 前日，受邀至友人王叔府上作客，席间，王叔突吐苦水，眉头紧锁，道出了心中的郁结："我那套2019 年斥资两百五十万购入的房产，如今挂牌价跌至一百五十万，却连个问津者也难寻，这跌幅之剧，实在 令人心惊。"王叔道，当初他首付七十万，如今即便脱手，不仅本金尽失，还需倒贴二十万才能解脱。 目睹他愁容满面，我不禁为那些身陷房市寒冬的普通购房者所承受的困境与重压而扼腕长叹。 近年来，楼市的持续调整已然成为社会热议的焦点。国家统计局的最新数据显示，截至2025年6月，全 ...

2025年冷冻鸡翅市场规模达75亿元，但供应缺口仍存。以华东地区为例，某冷链企业负责人表示："进口鸡翅占比超30%， 主要是国内养殖场更倾向卖整鸡。"而需求端，外卖平台数据显示，含鸡翅的套餐销量年增25%，供需失衡直接推高价格。 "老公，孩子非要吃奥尔良烤翅，这价格够买两只整鸡了！"张女士在超市冷柜前犹豫。丈夫拿起鸡翅看了眼标签："贵有贵 的道理，这里头门道多着呢。" 一、供需天平"严重倾斜" 二、附加价值"层层加码" "普通鸡翅进超市卖25元/斤，但做成预制菜能卖40元。"某食品厂经理算账，"去骨、腌制、杀菌这些工序，每斤增加8元成 本。"餐饮渠道更夸张，某网红烤翅店招牌产品，原料成本5元，售价却达28元，品牌溢价和场景体验占了大头。 三、消费心理"越贵越买" "请客吃饭摆盘整鸡太普通，但端上盘烤翅立马有面子。"婚宴策划师王女士说。这种心理在礼品市场更明显，某电商平台数 据显示，礼盒装鸡翅年销售额超15亿元，包装成本占售价30%，但消费者依然买账。 ...

现在回头看2018年潘石屹的采访，真得佩服他的眼光，当时很多房企都在喊着冲千亿、破万亿，他却卖掉400多亿物业，说对市场风险的判断不一样。 那会没人当真，直到恒大美元债暴雷、华夏蓝光接连出事，大家才反应过来，来是老潘眼光毒，他早看透了楼市的猫腻。 潘石屹当年的判断就两个常识，供需失衡，回报率不合理，2018年银行贷款利率4.9%，房租回报率却只有1%，这种倒挂根本撑不住。 还有房企借 美元外债 、赚人民币的操作，汇率一动就是灭顶之灾，现在这两点全应验了，2025年百城房价连跌十一个季度，房企全年债务到期额超 5000亿元，可不就是他说的 风险爆发了嘛。 所以不出意外，未来三年楼市会往这三个方向走，每个都和普通人息息相关。 银行续贷前要重估房子价值，原来500万的房子跌40%只剩 300 万，想续贷就得自己拿200万补差价。 拿不出的只能卖房，可现在全国二手房挂牌量都破750万套了，根本卖不动。 2025年深圳就出现过这种情况，一个小区12套房子集中抛售，每套比市场价低20万，直接把整个片区房价拉低了5%。 2020-2021年经营贷年增长20%，意味着这类房源不在少数，未来三年只要收入稍不稳定，就会有人被迫降 ...

Group 1 - The A-share storage chip sector experienced a strong surge, with significant gains in semiconductor stocks, indicating global market optimism towards storage chips [1] - In September, the storage market entered a second round of price increases, with SanDisk raising prices by over 10% and Micron notifying channel partners of price hikes between 20% to 30% [1][2] - The price adjustments are attributed to supply-demand imbalances, driven by industry giants' capacity adjustments and increased demand from AI applications [2] Group 2 - Market research indicates a 72% increase in the DRAM price index over six months, with consumer SSD prices rising by 40% in just over a month [3] - The rise in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the growth of AI applications, with HBM2e prices increasing by 80% and HBM3e exceeding $100 per GB [3] - Storage module manufacturers are feeling the pressure from rising prices, leading to a pause in DDR4 pricing, while companies like Xiaomi are facing margin pressures due to unexpected price increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a dramatic rise amidst a generally weak global financial market, driven by strong demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets and inflation hedges, with prices increasing across the board [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have surged nearly 43% year-to-date, breaking through the $3,700 per ounce mark, while silver has reached a 14-year high of over $46 per ounce [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium prices have also hit significant highs, with platinum reaching a 12-year peak [1]. - The precious metals sector has outperformed other popular assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, making it the best-performing asset class in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including supply-demand dynamics, market risk aversion, and macroeconomic monetary policies [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's new tariffs on imports have bolstered market risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [2]. - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market and economic uncertainties have prompted investors to seek refuge in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Gold Council reported a rapid increase in global gold ETF holdings, reaching 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [2][4]. - Structural imbalances in supply and demand are evident across various precious metals, with strong demand from central banks for gold and increasing industrial demand for silver [3][4]. - Silver's supply is constrained due to rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, while platinum is expected to face a supply shortfall of 85,000 ounces by 2025 [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Impact - The macroeconomic environment, particularly expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar, has significantly enhanced the attractiveness of precious metals [3][4]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy has led to increased inflows of investment and speculative funds into the precious metals market [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Investment institutions remain optimistic about the future of precious metals, with expectations of further price increases driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. debt risks [5]. - Despite high current silver prices, the underlying logic supporting gold's rise also applies to silver, with persistent supply gaps likely to drive silver prices higher [5]. - The outlook for platinum remains positive due to its safe-haven appeal and supply vulnerabilities, while palladium faces downward pressure from shifting demand dynamics in the automotive industry [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market in 2026 may not simply follow a downward trend but could exhibit a more complex pattern of differentiation, influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply-demand dynamics, and population movements [1][7]. Policy Changes - Since August 2023, local governments have implemented unprecedented easing policies aimed at lowering home purchase barriers, such as allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments on second-hand homes and introducing measures to alleviate developers' financial burdens [1][2]. - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that more supportive policies may be forthcoming [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a significant decline in new housing starts, with a 19.5% year-on-year decrease in new construction area from January to August 2025, and an 18.3% drop in residential new starts [2]. - Concurrently, cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing rapid population growth, with Hangzhou adding 195,000 residents and Chengdu 237,000 in the first half of the year, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap that is expected to push up housing prices in 2026 [3][6]. Inflation and Investment Trends - Global inflation pressures are anticipated to persist, with forecasts suggesting an average global inflation rate of 3.9% in 2026, which may drive investment into real estate as a hedge against inflation [5]. - The demand for housing in core cities is expected to increase as individuals seek to protect their assets from inflation, even if property prices do not rise significantly [5]. Population Movement and Urbanization - The "Matthew Effect" in population movement is becoming more pronounced, with traditional first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing slower population growth, while new first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Changsha attract more residents [6]. - This trend will likely lead to stronger housing demand in cities with continuous population inflow, supporting price increases [6]. Developer Strategies - Developers are shifting their focus from quantity to quality, emphasizing high-quality housing projects and improving standards and amenities [6]. - This change in supply strategy is expected to significantly impact the price structure of the housing market in 2026, with high-quality properties potentially commanding higher prices while ordinary homes may struggle to attract buyers [6]. Conclusion - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to reflect a complex interplay of factors, with significant opportunities in new first-tier cities experiencing population growth, while areas with declining populations may see substantial price drops [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous accumulation of U.S. government debt is threatening the order of the monetary system, as stated by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates [1] Group 1: U.S. Government Debt - The U.S. is currently experiencing 30% excessive spending and needs to sell $12 trillion in debt [1] - There is a lack of equivalent demand for such debt in the global market, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 2: Global Implications - Other countries, including the UK, France, and China, are facing similar issues regarding debt accumulation [1] - The U.S. has reached a critical point, with uncertainty about when a crisis may occur [1]