第 445 期 2025-08-25 焦点关注 央行大额投放，债市有所修复 近一段时间债券市场持续震荡引发关注，股债"跷跷板"效应明显。今天A股三大指数继续走强，A股成 交额历史第二次突破3万亿元。 但债市对权益市场表现有所脱敏，情绪出现修复迹象，30Y超长特别国债2500002收益率下行4bp至 1.9975％，时隔多日再度步入2.0%下方。国债期货收盘全线大幅上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.78%，10年 期主力合约涨0.27%，5年期主力合约涨0.15%，2年期主力合约涨0.10%。 公开市场方面，央行今日开展2884亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量2884亿元，操作利率为1.40%，因今日 2665亿元逆回购到期，单日净投放219亿元。此外，叠加今日将开展6000亿元1年期MLF操作，当日共 实现净投放6219亿元。 交易员表示，尽管短期内股市高热或继续造成存款搬家，并扰动资金面，但在政策护航下料流动性整体 仍无虞。 10只科创债ETF自8月27日起纳入可质押库 10只科创债ETF将于8月27日起纳入可质押库。首批科创债ETF上市首日（7月17日），10家管理人已向 中国结算提交了旗下科创债ETF纳入回购质押库 ...

2.债市资讯 近日30年国债ETF(511090)交投明显活跃。Wind数据显示，本周30年国债ETF最新规模突破232.87亿元，创 成立以来新高。成交额方面，截止8月4日，30年国债ETF单日成交额达99.62亿元，居全市场同类ETF排行 第一。(数据来源:Wind，同类指全市场30年国债ETF) 在商品、股市以及政策交易的压制下，前期债市持续走弱。中泰固收首席分析师在研报中指出，随着债券 市场持续调整，近期技术面上债市已经进入超跌修复区间。会议落地后，政策交易的风险解除，通胀预期 短期回调，叠加央行资金面的呵护、保险预定利率下调等短期利好，债市或迎来修复窗口期。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使 得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作 为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大时，具备较强的交易属性， 长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议 ...

围绕事件博弈的一周。 尽管多重事件交织，本周债券市场情绪在波动中仍实现了修复。一方面，在权益和商品价格回调、政治局会议未落地 超预期政策的背景下，风险偏好回落；另一方面，政策不确定性暂时过去之后，市场关注重心回归到对基本面和资金 面的判断。 周五突发的税收调整是否打断这种情绪修复？ 周五财政部、税务总局公告称对新发行的国债、地方债、金融债的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对于本次国债等债券 票息恢复征收增值税的政策调整，我们认为，其影响更多体现为一次性和结构性的价格重估，而不构成趋势性的方向 改变。若还有央行配合对冲操作，尤其是提供流动性支持或开展公开市场买债操作，市场对税负上升的响应过程有望 更加平稳。具体看来，这个事件有四个相对确定和三个不确定性比较大的影响： 四个相对确定的影响：（1）静态测算下新老券利差扩大幅度或落在 6–11bp 之间。（2）本轮未纳入征税范围或此前已 征税的品种相对受益。（3）资管类产品相对优势进一步强化。（4）对银行而言，信贷资产相对吸引力上升。 三个不确定性影响：（1）新老债利差走阔以何种方式"分配"。（2）央行是否对冲及对冲程度。（3）是否意味着开启新 一轮税收制度调整周期仍待观察 ...

债市短期修复 国债周报 2025/08/02 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：今年上半年经济数据在受关税影响下整体仍具韧性，7月PMI数据整体低于预期，供需两端有所回落，"反内卷"对价格预期有 所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察；新出口订单有一定回落，往后看，在抢出口有所透支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下，出口可能 有一定压力。海外方面，FOMC会议联储表态边际偏鹰，日央行维持利率不变，但美国就业数据低于预期，9月份降息概率增加。 1、中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成 本下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may experience a short - term repair after the Politburo meeting. Three major concerns in the bond market have been alleviated, and the bond interest rate has started a repair trend. However, in the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards [4][5][9] Summary by Related Contents 1. Policy Content of the Politburo Meeting - The meeting set a "good" tone for the economy in the first half of the year, stating that the economy was stable with progress, and high - quality development achieved new results. In the second half of the year, economic work emphasizes "enhancing awareness of potential perils and adhering to a bottom - line mindset", and policy implementation may emphasize execution while reserving some flexibility [3][6] - Macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should be moderately loose. Policy tools should support key areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade [3] - Science and technology innovation and boosting domestic demand are important policy measures. The meeting emphasized the leading role of science and technology innovation in new - quality productivity and placed more emphasis on consumption than investment in domestic demand [3] 2. Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Recently, the bond market has been weak, mainly suppressed by risk preference and inflation trading. The strengthening of the equity and commodity markets since June has suppressed bond market sentiment, and the "anti - involution" has raised inflation expectations [7] - Before the meeting, concerns in the bond market mainly included the possibility of excessive total - volume policies, real - estate policies, and the confirmation of "anti - involution" policies. After the meeting, these concerns were basically dispelled [4][5][7] 3. Analysis of the Bond Market's Future Trend - In the short - term, the bond market may repair. The meeting confirmed the economic achievements in the first half of the year, with a low probability of excessive total - volume policies. It did not directly mention real - estate policies, and the "anti - involution" statement was weakened, which may lead to a decline in inflation expectations. Additionally, moderately loose monetary policy also supports the bond market [4][5][10] - In the long - term, the probability of interest rates breaking through the low point is small, and the interest rate center may fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities from oversold rebounds rather than heavy - position participation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, with the latest price at 124.87 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 28.1% and a transaction volume of 5.057 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 18.008 billion yuan, marking a one-month high, with net inflows of 2.154 billion yuan over three out of the last five trading days [1] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan and initiated a total scale of 1.4 trillion yuan for a buyout reverse repurchase operation, signaling stable liquidity and a potential recovery window for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The current DR001 rate is around 1.3%, while the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit yield remains above 1.6%, suggesting some investment appeal despite recent strong performance in the equity market [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment in this category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through increased reverse repurchase operations, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations and credit conditions amid a peak in government bond issuance [1][2][3]. Group 1: PBOC Operations - On July 15, the PBOC conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan for the day [1]. - The PBOC also announced a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in buyout reverse repurchase operations, with 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 600 billion yuan for 6-month terms, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2]. - The total amount of buyout reverse repos maturing in July is 1.2 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, marking the second consecutive month of increased operations [1][2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Analysts note that the current liquidity environment is under pressure due to a significant tax payment period and increased government bond issuance, with expected net financing exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The liquidity disturbances are manageable, with analysts suggesting that the impact of tax payments on liquidity is historically controllable, typically within a fluctuation range of ±2 basis points for representative rates [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains stable, with the PBOC's actions expected to maintain a steady interest rate environment, although the balance between liquidity disturbances and market expectations will be crucial for asset pricing [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from the PBOC's reverse repurchase operations, potentially leading to a recovery if liquidity remains stable or improves [5]. - As of July 15, the yields on 30-year and 10-year government bonds have decreased slightly, indicating a positive response to the PBOC's liquidity measures [5]. - Analysts recommend a strategy of increasing allocations to high-grade credit bonds as opportunities arise, while closely monitoring interest rate changes and policy actions [5].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are increasing the precision of their net asset values (NAV) in response to large redemptions, primarily affecting bond funds, to protect the interests of their investors [1][2][5]. Fund Adjustments - On July 9, Xinda Australia Fund announced an adjustment to the NAV precision of its Xin'ao Anshengli Pure Bond Fund due to a significant redemption on July 8, 2025, increasing the precision to eight decimal places [2]. - Similarly, Hui'an Fund announced on July 9 that its Hui'an Yutai Pure Bond Fund would also increase its NAV precision to eight decimal places following a large redemption on July 7, 2025 [5]. - Other fund companies, including Huashan, Guotai Junan Asset Management, and others, have also made similar announcements regarding NAV precision adjustments due to large redemptions occurring in early July [5]. Market Conditions - The bond market has transitioned from a bull market to a high-volatility phase, with cautious sentiment prevailing among fund companies [6]. - According to Yifangda Fund, liquidity issues in July are less severe than in June, and the recent stock market rally has improved market risk appetite, which may temporarily affect long-term bond rates [6]. - Jia Shi Fund anticipates that macroeconomic and liquidity conditions will remain favorable for both stock and bond investments, with expectations of continued monetary easing [6]. Future Outlook - Ping An Fund highlights potential risks in the bond market due to adjustments after significant gains, with limited upside in yield levels [7]. - Credit bond yields and spreads have fluctuated since the beginning of 2025, with expectations of continued downward movement in credit bond yields due to sustained liquidity [7].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are increasing the precision of net asset values to address redemption issues, particularly in bond funds, as the bond market enters a recovery phase but remains cautious [2][6]. Group 1: Fund Adjustments - Several fund companies, including Xinda Australia Fund and Huian Fund, have announced adjustments to the net asset value precision of their funds due to significant redemptions, increasing precision to eight decimal places [4][5]. - Other companies such as Guotai Junan, Changcheng, and Jiashi have also made similar announcements regarding their bond funds in response to large redemptions [4][5]. Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market has transitioned from a bull market to a high-volatility phase due to factors like liquidity, tariff negotiations, and risk appetite, with a cautious sentiment prevailing [7]. - Companies like Yifangda Fund indicate that liquidity issues have lessened compared to June, and while short-term impacts from stock market strength may affect long-term bond yields, the overall trend is expected to be downward [7]. - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for both stock and bond investments, with expectations of continued monetary easing and potential rate cuts to support market liquidity [7]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to see a decline in yields, with limited space for compression in short- to medium-term credit spreads, while long-term credit bonds may experience a similar trend [8].