央行强化对存贷款利率的引导，意在防止市场机构出于业务考虑而过度竞争、进一步压低整个市场的有 效利率，进而提升货币政策调控效能 文｜《财经》记者 唐郡 编辑 ｜张威 袁满 利率低于3%的消费贷产品几近绝迹，利率高于1.55%的5年期大额存单也在悄然消失。 商业银行2026年"开门红"营销启动已近两个月，以往的存贷款利率"价格战"却未如期出现。 利率"价格战"熄火背后，是一场自上而下的"反内卷"行动。 12月10日-11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议指出，要"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"，与《中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"'十五五'规划建议"）中"综合整治'内 卷式'竞争"的表述一脉相承。 此前稍早，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）行长潘功胜在其署名文章中表示，要加强货币政策执行情况的 评估，引导金融机构提高货币政策特别是利率政策的传导效能，持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金空 转。 摩根士丹利近期发布的一份调研报告显示，央行及行业自律机制帮助设定了贷款利率下限。目前，企业 贷款利率下限约为2.1%-2.2%，与经税收调整后的同期限国债收益率大致持平。包括按揭贷款在内的零 售贷 ...

1、不同风险利率的比价关系。即风险溢价需保持在合理水平，企业融资利率不应低于国债收益率。因 此存款利率和贷款利率进一步下行的空间被约束； 2、商业银行资产端利率和负债端利率的关系，保持银行合理净息差，需要商业银行资产端和负债端利 率保持更为合理的比价； 3、不同类型资产收益率的关系。这意味着存款利率和债券收益率需要保持合理利差。 货币政策展望：一季度的宽松路径将是降准和结构性降息。 【大河财立方消息】12月25日，银河证券研报称，12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年 第四季度例会。货币政策表述延续中央经济工作会议的定调，但没有明确提及"灵活高效运用降准降 息"。 本次会议最值得关注的重要变化：社会综合融资成本进一步下行面临利率比价的束缚。从"推动社会综 合融资成本下降"转变为"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，表明在目前社会综合融资成本已处于"低 位"的背景下，继续推动其进一步下行面临利率比价的约束。 央行货币调控的中间变量将从"数量型和价格型调控并行"逐步转向"以价格型调控为主"，以价格调控为 主，关键在于畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，而如果希望畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，就必须保 持合理 ...

来源：财经五月花 作者：唐郡 央行强化对存贷款利率的引导，意在防止市场机构出于业务考虑而过度竞争、进一步压低整 个市场的有效利率，进而提升货币政策调控效能 利率低于3%的消费贷产品几近绝迹，利率高于1.55%的5年期大额存单也在悄然消失。 商业银行2026年"开门红"营销启动已近两个月，以往的存贷款利率"价格战"却未如期出现。 利率"价格战"熄火背后，是一场自上而下的"反内卷"行动。 12月10日-11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议指出，要"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"，与《中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"'十五五'规划建议"）中"综合整治'内 卷式'竞争"的表述一脉相承。 此前稍早，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）行长潘功胜在其署名文章中表示，要加强货币政策执行情况的 评估，引导金融机构提高货币政策特别是利率政策的传导效能，持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金空 转。 摩根士丹利近期发布的一份调研报告显示，央行及行业自律机制帮助设定了贷款利率下限。目前，企业 贷款利率下限约为2.1%-2.2%，与经税收调整后的同期限国债收益率大致持平。包括按揭贷款在内的零 售贷款利率下限约为 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 分析师： 【衍生品研究】泰瑞转债投资价值分析-注塑机行业领先企业，国际业务持 续提升 【固定收益】2026 年债市展望——从利率比价视角看当前债市 【衍生品研究】芯能转债投资价值分析-收入稳定+毛利率高的低价转债 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,902.81 | 0.70 | | 深证成指 | | 13,147.68 | 1.08 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,584.54 | 0.84 | | 中小板指 | | 7,957.82 | 0.68 | | 创业板指 | | 3,109.30 | 1.36 | | 科创 50 | | 1,326.10 | -0.00 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：2026 年煤 ...

固定收益 2026 年债市展望 ——从利率比价视角看当前债市 2025 年 12 月 5 日 固定收益研究/事件点评 相关报告： 利率互换曲线正走出倒挂，债市将由牛 市转为震荡-债市策略 2025.9.11 山证固定收益研究团队 分析师： 王冠军 执业登记编码：S0760524040001 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 邮箱：wangguanjun@sxzq.com 事件概览：2025 年 11 月 11 日，央行发布了第三季度货币政策执行报告，其 中专栏四《保持合理的利率比价关系》指出"利率及其比价关系对宏观经济 均衡和资源配置有重要导向意义"，"保持合理的利率比价关系是畅通货币政 策传导的需要"。这是近年来央行第一次详细阐释利率比价关系，或为后续 管理市场利率预设了政策框架，同时对债市走势也提供了一种新的支撑，本 文基于利率比价视角对 2026 年债市进行总体展望。 核心观点： 利率及其比价关系对宏观经济均衡和资源配置有重要导向意义。利率本 质上是资金的回报率。由于不同金融工具的期限、风险、流动性等属性不同， 经济活动中的利率品种众多，利率水平也有所差异，形成一定比价关系。利 率和利率比价关系 ...

Group 1 - The effectiveness of the transmission of policy interest rates to the financial market and the real economy has significantly improved, but there is still room for improvement in the transmission to bond yields [2][7][10] - A reasonable interest rate comparison relationship is essential for the transmission of monetary policy, and different types of interest rates should maintain a reasonable relationship without long-term significant deviations [7][10] - The transmission of funding rates to bond yields has shown an overall improvement trend since 2025, but there remains considerable room for improvement in this area [7][10] Group 2 - The current representative interest rate comparison indicates that the government bond yield has returned to a relatively reasonable range, with limited short-term downward space [10][11] - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is likely to outpace that of loan rates, suggesting that institutional investors may consider early positioning [14][18] - The relative comparison of loan rates and bond rates shows limited short-term compression space for bond yields, emphasizing the need to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [19][20] Group 3 - The static value of ultra-long-term bonds is highlighted for bank institutions, while the current configuration value of loan rates is not apparent [27][30] - For public funds, the cost-effectiveness of mid-to-short-term credit bonds is relatively higher, as the long-term bond yields face limited downward expectations and upward space [27][33] - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation trend, with a recommendation to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the policy trends from November 6th to November 21st, 2025, covering macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, and real - estate policies. It emphasizes the importance of promoting private investment, developing new - quality productivity, ensuring sufficient fiscal strength, maintaining reasonable interest - rate parity, and optimizing financial regulations and real - estate policies [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Tone - The State Council issued policies to stimulate private investment, including 13 targeted measures such as encouraging private capital participation in key projects and removing unreasonable restrictions [1][8]. - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed enhancing the adaptability of consumer supply and demand to release consumption potential and promote economic circulation [1][9]. - Developing new - quality productivity was emphasized, with an article in "Qiushi" magazine highlighting its strategic position in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [1][10]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy should be sufficient in strength, precise in implementation, and coordinated in policy. The Ministry of Finance plans to use various tools and strengthen cooperation with finance to support public services and private investment [2][12]. - The investment scope of the securities settlement risk fund was expanded to include key - term treasury bonds [2][13]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, with strong international investor participation [2][13]. Monetary Policy - The third - quarter monetary policy report adjusted the policy tone to "cross - cycle and counter - cycle adjustment". There is limited space for significant liquidity loosening [3][16]. - Maintaining a reasonable interest - rate parity is crucial for the smooth transmission of monetary policy, and financial industry "involution - style competition" should be restricted [3][17]. - There may be new liquidity management tools, and the rapid issuance of government bonds may replace loans in the short term [3][19]. Financial Supervision - The Asset Management Association of China drafted a guidance on the style management of thematic investment funds, and the CSRC optimized the ETF registration process [4][21]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration will release a revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans", and the first joint - stock bank financial asset investment company was established [4][22]. - Many large - scale insurance companies launched "Good Start" products, with a focus on dividend - type insurance [4][22]. - CICC plans to merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities [4][22]. Real - estate Policy - The central bank aims to implement financial policies for affordable housing and improve the basic real - estate financial system [5][26]. - Beijing completed its 2025 affordable housing construction and acquisition tasks [5][26]. - Guangzhou plans to increase the acquisition of existing commercial housing, with relaxed requirements for eligible properties [5][27].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a stable interest rate environment amid ongoing pressures on bank net interest margins [1] Group 1: LPR and Interest Rates - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustment in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1] - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China stands at 1.42%, unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a stabilization in the downward trend of interest margins [1] - The recent report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the stabilization of interest margins is supported by measures such as deposit rate reductions and improvements in the liability structure of banks [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory efforts aim to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition among financial institutions, with a focus on maintaining sustainable banking operations [2] - The PBOC's report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to ensure effective functioning of the market-oriented interest rate system [2] - Analysts suggest that the central bank should use self-regulatory mechanisms and window guidance to ensure that loan and deposit rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining risk pricing and interest margin stability [2] Group 3: Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [3] - The PBOC is actively guiding localities to participate in pilot programs aimed at reducing comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, benefiting numerous small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The decline in financing costs for both enterprises and residents indicates a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's October economic data shows that fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than market expectations, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size and service industry production index is not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored. [3][4] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.06%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.01% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 403.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 3.7 billion yuan [3] - Funding market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average was 1.53% (previous day: 1.51%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.52% (unchanged from the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 0.53 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year increased by 0.12 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.10 BP to 2.14% [3] - According to ADP Research, in the four weeks ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2,500 people per week, an improvement from the previous week's average reduction of 11,250 people [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.4% [3] Market Logic - China's October economic data shows mixed performance. Fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than expected, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. Industrial added value and service industry production index growth are not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will optimize monetary policy intermediate variables. The Wande All - A index fell 0.15% on Tuesday with slightly reduced trading volume. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be monitored [3][4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].