行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 节日期间港股建材板块表现如何？ 风险提示：基建、地产需求回落超预期，对水泥、玻璃价格涨价趋势造成影 响；新材料品种下游景气度及自身成长性不及预期；地产产业链坏账减值损 失超预期。 2025 年 10 月 09 日 行情回顾 节前两个交易日（20250929-20250930）沪深 300 涨 1.99%，建材（中信） 涨 1.57%，其中其他专用材料、陶瓷、玻璃纤维涨幅居前。个股中，上峰水 泥（+14.8%）、万里石（+12.2%）、法狮龙（+9.0%）、世名科技（+7.6%）、道 氏技术（+7.5%）涨幅居前。 核心观点 节日期间（0929-1007）香港建材指数涨 2.55%，玻璃品种表现最优，其中 中国玻璃（+13.21%）、信义光能（+13.21%）、信义玻璃（+5.76%），水泥次 之，中国建材（+4.55%）、西部水泥（+4.14%）、海螺水泥（+2.60%），消费 建材相对较弱，中国联塑（-2.08%）。从估值分位数来看，当前玻璃品种处 于过去三年 50%分位数以下，水泥高于玻璃，其中中国建材、海螺水泥、金 隅集团处于过去三年 80%分位数左右 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-9-29） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价828，基差38；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价844，基差54，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14450.68万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 铁矿石港口现货价格 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受 ...

玻璃反内卷 20250924 摘要 受天然气价格上涨影响，浮法玻璃企业面临每吨约 100 元的亏损，煤制 气成本也增加。石油焦价格下降虽略有盈利，但整体行业仍亏损，企业 呼吁政府采取措施减少损失。 工信部发布建材行业稳增长方案，严格控制水泥和玻璃产能，严禁新增 平板玻璃产能，新建或改建项目需制定产能置换方案，淘汰落后产能， 此政策提振市场情绪，推动玻璃价格上涨。 光伏玻璃产能同比下降 16%，近期价格上涨。未来价格走势取决于供应 减少和需求增加，需求端受房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%和新能源汽车发 展带动，短期内（2025 年 10 月后至春节前）用量预计上涨，整体或上 涨 200 元/吨。 建筑用浮法玻璃市场占比下降至 50%左右，但汽车、家电等领域需求增 长。全国房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%及新能源汽车发展对建筑用浮法玻 璃需求产生积极影响。 房地产新增量不多，市场启动尚未完全实现，情绪带动和建材稳增长政 策对浮法玻璃需求的影响持续性有待观察。2025 年 8 月底浮法玻璃总 产能 12.4 亿重量箱，实际产量 15.8 万吨，同比下降 4.5%，库存周期 26-27 天，供需失衡，行业亏损严重。 Q& ...

浮法玻璃反内卷近况跟踪 20250925 摘要 玻璃行业自 2024 年下半年持续亏损，新增产能与保交楼政策下的需求 未能有效平衡，导致供需失衡，价格虽维持在每吨 2000 元左右，但难 改亏损局面。 工信部等六部门的稳增长方案严控平板玻璃新增产能，推行产能置换和 淘汰落后产能，旨在稳定市场预期，并控制石油焦等原料使用以应对环 保和成本压力。 8 月新开工面积增长 12%，一线城市房地产政策优化，沙河地区煤气化 炉改造预计增加成本，多重因素或推动玻璃价格上涨，但具体涨幅仍待 观察。 行业虽低迷，但政策支持和需求端积极变化预示好转，本次反弹较 7 月 更具支撑，政府节能减排和控制产能措施并行，企业需自律调整， 9、10 月为关键期。 工信部指导原则包括反对内卷、限产减产和不低于成本价销售，具体限 产量和涨价幅度由企业自行决定，工信部通过座谈会了解情况并鼓励企 业自救。 Q&A 工信部近期召开玻璃企业座谈会的主要意图和讨论内容是什么？ 工信部原材料司组织了此次座谈会，邀请了全国前 15 家主要玻璃企业的负责 人参会。会议的主要目的是交流行业现状，特别是自 2024 年下半年以来行业 普遍亏损的问题。会议讨论了多个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and the need for restructuring, as evidenced by the case of Runyang Co., which has received support from local government and its second-largest shareholder, Yueda Group, to resolve its financial issues [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions and Support - Yueda Group's decision to rescue Runyang Co. was contentious, with debates on the cost and effectiveness of such support, ultimately leading to Yueda's full commitment to the rescue [2]. - Zhang Naiwen, the chairman of Yueda Group, has a strong background in local government, which may influence the strategic direction of Runyang Co. [4]. - Yueda Group's financial strength, particularly from its coal mining assets, plays a crucial role in its ability to support struggling companies like Runyang [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a slowdown, with some projects being paused or terminated, leading to increased pressure on local governments to intervene and support local enterprises [7]. - Local governments are actively seeking ways to assist companies, including providing financial support and facilitating new investments, to prevent operational shutdowns [7]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where companies are exploring international opportunities, such as helping Indian firms build silicon wafer production capacity, which raises concerns about domestic market sustainability [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing restructuring efforts in the photovoltaic industry highlight the importance of financial backing and strategic management to navigate through the current challenges [8]. - The experiences of Runyang and Yueda Group may serve as a model for other companies in the sector, emphasizing the need for resilience and strategic partnerships to survive [8].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of new technologies, consumption patterns, and brands has created significant investment opportunities in recent years, with a new generation of fund managers gaining unique insights into these "new economies" [1] Group 1: Fund Manager's Background and Philosophy - Wang Kaichuan, a fund manager trained by Invesco Great Wall, will co-manage the Invesco Great Wall Industry Preferred Mixed Fund starting November 2024 [1] - Wang emphasizes a systematic approach to investment, showcasing confidence in independent thinking and a commitment to investor responsibility [1][2] - His investment style is characterized by a broad industry perspective, influenced by his diverse experience across various sectors, including steel, machinery, and media [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Methodology - The investment strategy focuses on a "diversified industry + concentrated stock" approach, with no single industry exceeding 20% of the portfolio [5] - Wang prefers to position investments on the left side of the market cycle, avoiding crowded sectors and focusing on companies with strong competitive positions in rising industries [6] - The methodology is structured around three dimensions: macroeconomic, industry mid-level, and micro-level stock analysis, with a preference for industry and stock-level insights over macroeconomic predictions [7] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trends - The analysis identifies a cyclical pattern in the A-share market, with a notable style cycle shift occurring in September 2024, transitioning from a value-dominated market to a growth-oriented one [9] - The current market environment is characterized by a complex geopolitical landscape, impacting global supply chains and creating investment challenges [26][27] - The Chinese economy is undergoing a transition from a real estate-driven growth model to one focused on new industries, with government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and supporting emerging sectors [29][32] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The fund manager identifies three key strategies for investment: international expansion, industrial upgrading, and capacity reduction, with a focus on companies that can adapt to these changes [33][34][35] - There is a particular emphasis on companies with global competitiveness in manufacturing and those that can tap into new consumer demands, especially in the cultural sector [36] - The current investment outlook remains optimistic, with Chinese equity assets offering attractive valuations compared to other asset classes [30][31]

每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3270，基差115；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存485.21万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路对待 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-9-24） 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力； ...

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Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed a mostly positive trend, with hot-rolled coil futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.28%, reaching a high of 3180.00 yuan/ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, with expectations for improved product quality and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils has shifted from a decrease to an increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06% and a slight decline in inventory, indicating a significant improvement in apparent demand [1] Group 2 - In August, China's crude steel daily output saw a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the industry practicing self-discipline in production control, leading to expectations of limited supply expansion in September [2] - The supply structure is notably differentiated, with an increase in pig iron production year-on-year, while crude steel production has decreased, and electric furnace production has significantly declined due to losses [2] - Despite an increase in demand, the current demand remains unstable, influenced by a seasonal transition, with raw material prices rising, potentially leading to fluctuations in finished product prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].