投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-03-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.0 | 49.2 | 50.2 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.5 | 49.5 | 50.4 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每 日 早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 6 日 0 / 52 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：市场在犹豫中反弹 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：财政力度平稳，关注发布会信息 5 | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 粕类偏强运行 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡调整 | 国内糖价偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：生柴利润好转，油脂震荡上涨 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应维持稳定 | 价格整体震荡 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：苹果库存偏低 | 价格较为坚挺 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：棉价下方支撑大 | 走势震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：两会间钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较大，但趋势不明显 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：盈亏比降低，多单部分止盈 16 | | 金银：市场情绪反复，金银承压 18 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地域冲 ...

2026年03月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：铁水产量下滑，矿价震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提降开启，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：市场情绪走弱，短期价格窄幅波动 | 9 | | 原木：库存偏低，价格震荡抬升 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 6 日 铁矿石：铁水产量下滑，矿价震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 7.0 | 0.93% | | | I2605 | | 759.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | ...

Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% this week, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.08%[12] - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 4 basis points to 1.79%[12] - The average annualized yield of money market funds, including Yu'ebao, fell by 13 basis points to 1.01%[12] Economic Indicators - During the Spring Festival holiday, 596 million domestic trips were made, with total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan, an increase of 1.26 billion yuan compared to the previous year[5] - The box office for the Spring Festival holiday reached 5.752 billion yuan, with 120 million viewers[5] - The average daily cross-regional personnel flow during the holiday was 311 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%[5] Policy and Market Outlook - The central bank will lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026[21] - The asset allocation sequence is prioritized as follows: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[5] - The focus for the next month is on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, with a neutral stance on bonds and currency[4]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 第九， 从政策框架看，扩大内需和科技创新是两大重心，我们理解它们也会是"两会"相关政策的主要线索。 这一政策特征对应着在资产端的关键原则是做好适度"均衡"。从目前主要资产的特征来看，消费类资产中期 胜率较高，短期赔率较高；周期类资产短期胜率和赔率较高；科技类资产中期胜率较高，短期赔率约束，基本 上是各有优势，这也意味着今年资产配置需要做好均衡化。如我们在年度展望《经济温差缩小，资产叙事收 敛：2026年宏观环境展望》中所指出的：2026年的宏观定价特征可能是从简单的"新老资产分化"，走向一 个更理性更均衡、区分快变量和慢变量的状态 。 摘要 第一， 中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议审查的 中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。关于会议精 神，我们做出简要分析。 第二， 会议再次强调了财政政策的"更加积极"和货币政策的"适度宽松"，稳定市场关于宏观经济政策的预 期。两会政府工作报告将会明确赤字率及广义财政系列重要指标，我们预计狭义赤字率和广义赤字率将大 ...

Group 1 - The conference focused on macroeconomic policy goals set by the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and growth is essential for development [1] - Experts suggested that economic growth should be maintained within a reasonable range by 2026, and that there is a need to effectively balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth [1] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments were recommended to fully unleash growth potential [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit rate higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, and an increase in the scale of national debt issuance to expand total expenditure [2] - To stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points for the entire year is suggested, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio cuts [2] - Strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with an emphasis on expanding the scale of new financial policy tools to leverage investment [2] - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, efforts to restore effective credit issuance conditions should be intensified, particularly in stabilizing the real estate market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development, highlighting the need to balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth [1] Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit ratio higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, increasing the scale of national debt issuance, and expanding total expenditure [1] - It was recommended to implement a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points for the year to stimulate investment and consumption, while better utilizing the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] - There is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging new financial policy tools to expand scale and achieve a leverage effect on investment [1] - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is necessary to strengthen efforts to stabilize the real estate market and restore effective credit supply conditions promptly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development. It is crucial to balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth, aiming to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range by 2026 [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit ratio higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, increasing the scale of national debt issuance and expanding total expenditure [2]. - The current actual financing costs are still relatively high; to stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points should be implemented, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [2]. - There is a need to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging new financial policy tools to expand their scale and achieve a leverage effect on investment [2]. - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is necessary to enhance efforts to stabilize the real estate market and restore effective credit supply conditions promptly [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors is supported by factors such as geopolitical situations, policy environments, and supply - demand dynamics. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, and the prices of other metals also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical situation led to a rise in gold and copper prices. LME copper 3M closed up 0.74% to $13,120/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,430 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 148,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong was large, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot narrowed to about 400 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4] - **Strategy View**: Precious metals continue to rise, and strategic resource demand is strengthened. The copper ore supply is tight, and the refined copper demand is seasonally weak. Global visible inventory continues to increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to rise slightly. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,500 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - $13,500/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the escalation of the US - Iran issue and the strengthening of the equity market, aluminum prices rose significantly. LME aluminum closed up 1.59% to $3,263/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 25,330 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME price difference narrowed. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 93,000 to 810,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 143,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, but the transaction was dull. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 500,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The large increase in aluminum positions has increased price volatility. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but high prices suppress downstream demand. LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. In the context of loose domestic and foreign policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 25,000 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,220 - $3,320/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed flat at 17,016 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S fell $7 to $2,025.5/ton, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 211,200 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. Primary lead production has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and secondary lead smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventory of smelting plants and social lead ingot inventory have both increased, showing a weak industrial situation. However, due to the impact of winter cooling on scrap battery transportation, the raw materials for secondary lead smelting have tightened, and the profit of secondary lead smelting calculated on a spot - order basis is under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.62% to 25,615 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 240,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose $82 to $3,413/ton, with a total position of 234,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,240 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 26 was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have improved slightly, and the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data announced on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data, so short - term bullish sentiment has retreated. However, the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the costs of European smelters, leading to an increase in LME zinc prices. In addition, the current zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, and zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 28, tin prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions recovered from maintenance, and there were both constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price wait - and - see attitudes, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the rigid - demand restocking demand was released intensively. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous Friday [14] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by the capital game in the futures market. Against the background of the strong trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - $58,000/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 28, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 144,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,750 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, and that of 1.2% grade was $23/wet ton. The price of nickel iron fluctuated upward, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,053 yuan/nickel point [16] - **Strategy View**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,830 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous working day. Among them, the price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 163,500 - 175,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 850 yuan (- 0.50%) from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 - 172,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 166,280 yuan, a decrease of 7.42% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, most commodities rose, but lithium carbonate was weak, rising first and then falling back to erase the previous day's gains. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, the number of profit - taking orders increased. The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the off - season destocking provides strong support. Downstream raw material inventory is limited, and it is expected that the bargaining power is not high. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, and the exchange adheres to the main tone of strict supervision. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 156,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on January 28, 2026, the alumina index rose 2.8% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 647,300 lots, a decrease of 14,900 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 256 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 81 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 159,100 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by $0.5/ton to $61.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton [22] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. It is expected that the ore price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expired warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% (- 75) on the day, with a unilateral position of 295,000 lots, a decrease of 8,706 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi market remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 415 (+ 25), and the Wuxi basis was - 165 (+ 75). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was 1,055 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. According to the data on January 23, the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, among which the inventory of 300 - series was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [25] - **Strategy View**: Last week, the stainless - steel market was active in trading, and prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the expansion of the nickel - stainless - steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity has shifted to the production of high - grade nickel matte with better profits, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. In addition, the futures warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the stainless - steel market shows a structural supply shortage in the short term, and the near - month contracts continue to strengthen. In terms of inventory, although the downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. On Friday, market news showed that the port logistics of the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park may be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. Overall, the expectation of tight supply on the raw material side has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the future, but the fluctuation may be large, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose significantly. The main AD2603 contract closed up 3.17% to 23,785 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm), the weighted contract position increased to 22,100 lots, the trading volume was 34,100 lots, and the trading volume reached a new high since listing. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.01 to 67,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,855 yuan/ton, which widened significantly month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 increased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 0.02 to 41,500 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply - side disturbance continues, providing strong support for prices. However, the demand is relatively average. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [29]

Report Investment Ratings Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [6] - Rebar: Range trading [7] - Glass: Hold off [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold off or hold long positions lightly and roll [9] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Hold off [12] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [13] - Gold: Range trading [15] - Silver: Bullish [15] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [17] - Caustic soda: Hold off [19] - Soda ash: Hold off [26] - Styrene: Range trading [19] - Rubber: Range trading [21] - Urea: Range trading [23] - Methanol: Range trading [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [26] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [28] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short on rebounds [30] - Eggs: Avoid shorting in the short term [32] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound [41] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their respective market fundamentals, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international situations. It also analyzes short - term and long - term trends and risks of each product to help investors make decisions. Summary by Category Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Affected by international trade policies, central bank policies, and market sentiment, it may range - bound in the short term but is long - term bullish [5] - Treasury bonds: Without significant negative factors, they may range - bound in a narrow range as there is limited impetus for further interest rate declines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Due to weak fundamentals, demand is sluggish, and supply disturbances may limit the downside. Short - term trading is recommended [6] - Rebar: With a slight over - valuation in price, weak short - term supply - demand contradictions, and a policy vacuum period, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: With stable supply, weakening speculative demand, and limited downstream inventory digestion, it may range - bound around 1050 - 1070. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro factors but with weak fundamentals, it may range - bound at high levels. Be cautious of pre - holiday profit - taking [9] - Aluminum: With stable supply, weakening demand, and cooling of market sentiment, it may adjust at high levels [11] - Nickel: Although stimulated by policy, fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold off [12] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Gold and silver: Driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's policy expectations, they are bullish. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is recommended for range trading [15] - Lithium carbonate: With supply disturbances and strong demand, it may range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, it may have a bottom. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: With high supply pressure and weak demand, it may range - bound at low levels. Attention should be paid to supply - side adjustments [19] - Styrene: With high valuation after a rebound, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber: With supply contraction but high inventory pressure, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21] - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and demand trends [23] - Methanol: With weak domestic demand and strong local prices, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and port arrivals [25] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply and weakening demand, they may range - bound weakly. Attention should be paid to cost and demand [25] - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and cost support, it is recommended to hold off [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With a decrease in global cotton output and an increase in consumption, long - term expectations are optimistic, but short - term caution is needed [26] - Apples: With slow sales in the main production areas and slightly improved sales in some secondary areas, they may range - bound weakly [28] - Jujubes: With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions, they may range - bound weakly [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, prices may range - bound due to supply - demand games. In the long term, be cautious about the upside. Range - bound trading and hedging are recommended [30] - Eggs: With high valuation and supply pressure in the medium - long term, hedging of post - holiday contracts is recommended [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term loose supply - demand, be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: With short - term support and long - term pressure, short - term range trading and long - term bearishness are recommended [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound. Hold previous long positions and exit previous spread - narrowing strategies [41]