国债期货周报 进一步宽货币预期不强，债市短期 缺乏驱动 作者：熊睿健 联系方式：020-88818020 从业资格：F03088018 投资咨询资格：Z0019608 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025//11/22 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本周观点 | 品 | 主要观点 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 国债 ⚫ | ⚫ 资金面来看。上周资金面先紧后松，加权资金利率边际上行，原因主要是周初受到税期、政府债缴款影响，资 | 短期债市处于箱体震荡阶段，10年期国债 | ⚫ 整体宏观环境偏利好债市。短 | | | 金面明显承压，后半周随着央行加力投放和税期影响消退，资金利率迎来下行。展望下周，将会进入跨月周， | 活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可能仍在 | 期的主要利空可能是债基赎回 | | | 同时公开市场逆回购到期量大，叠加MLF将有9000亿元到期、政府债缴款也可能达到2000-3000亿元，资金 | 1.8%-1.82%、30年活跃券利率波动区间 | 费新规落地，不过已经酝酿许 | ...

美元走势受美联储言论影响 上周五纽约交易时段，美元指数从多周高点回落。这一波动主要与纽约联邦储备银行主席约翰·威廉姆斯的讲话有关。其言论被市场解读为偏向鸽派，强化 了投资者对美联储在未来数月可能进一步放宽货币政策的预期。美元指数的下跌在一定程度上缓解了欧元兑美元的短期压力。 周一欧洲交易时段开盘，欧元兑美元汇率呈现小幅上涨，报价位于1.1520附近。此前，该货币对在周五的交易中曾触及1.1490的两周低点，随后出现反弹。 亚洲市场交易相对平淡，日本因银行假日休市，而美国市场则因感恩节假期缩短交易周。 欧元/美元4小时图 从技术分析角度看，欧元兑美元目前仍处于短期下行趋势中。4小时图显示，相对强弱指数低于40，移动平均收敛发散指标也已下穿零轴，表明当前上涨动 力不足。汇率在1.1550附近面临阻力，该水平在过去两个交易日中限制了进一步上涨。若能突破该位置，则可能向上测试1.1600附近区域，甚至挑战1.1625 的通道阻力位。 另一方面，1.1500心理关口仍是短期重要支撑。若汇率跌破该水平，可能进一步下探1.1470附近低点，甚至测试1.1425通道支撑位。 本文仅为市场信息客观梳理，不构成任何投资建议。外汇 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-11-24 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 点评：11月24日9:30，国家统计局将公布11月中旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格，包括黑色金属、有色 金属、化工产品、石油天然气、煤炭、非金属建材、农产品（主要用于加工）、农业生产资料、林产品等9大类 50种产品的价格。 11月25日 央行续作MLF 点评：11月25日有9000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）到期，预期央行将在11月25日09:25增量续作MLF，具体操 作金额将根据市场需求等情况确定。 美国9月PPI 【本周重点关注】 11 月 25 日 21:30，美国劳工部公布 9 月生产者价格指数（PPI ...

Energy Production in October 2025 - In October, the production of raw coal remained high, with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The average daily output was 13.12 million tons [7] - Crude oil production increased to 18 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a daily average of 581,000 tons [7] - Natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a daily average of 710 million cubic meters [7] - Electricity production saw a significant increase, reaching 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [7][8] Social Consumer Goods Retail - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 462.91 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 420.36 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [10] - Online retail sales from January to October totaled 1.279 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with physical goods online retail sales at 1.03984 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% [11] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In October alone, the investment dropped by 1.62% [13] - Investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, increasing by 2.9%, while the secondary industry saw an investment of 1.48411 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [14] - The tertiary industry experienced a decline in investment by 5.3%, with infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreasing by 0.1% [15] Industrial Value Added - The industrial value added for October showed a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [18] - The mining industry increased by 4.5%, manufacturing by 4.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 5.4% [19] - Among 41 major industries, 29 reported a year-on-year increase in value added, with notable growth in coal mining (6.5%) and automotive manufacturing (16.8%) [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on November 18, 2025, including the weak - side shock of stock index futures, the wide - range shock of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, the weak - side shock of precious metal and base metal futures, and the strong - side shock of some energy and agricultural product futures [2][3]. - The report also provides macro - economic information and recent price trends of related commodities, which may have an impact on futures prices [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2512) and silver (AG2602) futures are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will test support levels [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2601), alumina (AO2601), and others are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with support and resistance levels given [2][3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2601) and fuel oil (FU2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [3][5]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: PTA (TA601), natural rubber (RU2601), and bean meal (M2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, while PVC (V2601) and methanol (MA601) are expected to have a weak - side shock [3][7]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China - Germany high - level financial and economic dialogue promotes financial infrastructure connectivity [8]. - China protests against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan, and Premier Li Qiang has no arrangement to meet Japanese leaders during the G20 Summit [8]. - From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [8]. - In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [9]. - China conducts a final review of anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US [9]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts and economic trends [9]. - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the eurozone economy is expected to expand faster [10]. Commodity Futures Information - On November 17, most lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, and the price may break through 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton in 2026 if demand grows strongly [10]. - On November 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, and oil futures also declined, with institutions predicting lower oil prices in 2026 [11][12]. - Indonesia plans to impose an export tax on gold products, and India signs a long - term LPG purchase contract with the US [13]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 17, most stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 17, treasury bond futures closed higher, and the ten - year and thirty - year contracts are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18 [36][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 17, gold and silver futures contracts declined, with increased short - term downward pressure, but are expected to have a strong - side wide - range shock in November [43][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 17, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure, and are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18 [53][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On November 17, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 hit the daily limit, and is expected to have a strong - side shock in November [65][66]. - **Building Material Futures**: On November 17, glass and soda ash futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a weak - side shock in November [89][93]. - **Energy Futures**: On November 17, crude oil and fuel oil futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18 [98][103]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: On November 17, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures contracts showed a downward trend, while natural rubber and bean meal futures contracts showed an upward trend, and their trends on November 18 are predicted accordingly [104][111].

首先，宏观数据持续披露，市场聚焦国内经济状态。从最新公布的一系列十月宏观经济数据来看，四季度开局基本延续了今年经济发展的主要特征， 即前高后低。当然，市场对今年政策的靠前发力所产生的经济运行节奏是有预期的。因此，目前宏观总量的影响相对有限。而海外市场近期有所调整，主 要是关于AI的发展进程有不小分歧，引发了美国科技公司的集体调整。A股市场总体呈现高低切换，风格偏防守，属于典型的年底盘整行情特征：板块轮 动、主线不清晰和均衡化配置。 其次，周一两市震荡调整，量能下降。 周一，沪指略微低开后，震荡下行，收盘跌破20天均线。深圳成指当天走势略强于沪指，但全天都在短期均 线下方运行。两市量能不到2万亿元，较上周五略有下降。当天市场热点主要集中在军工和计算机等成长性行业。投资风格方面，大盘蓝筹股跌幅较大， 中小盘风格上涨。从市场运行节奏看，沪指围绕4000点附近反复拉锯，深圳成指处于整理形态。沪指近期围绕4000 点反复波动，上周五创出新高后快速 回落，本周开局继续下探，失守20天均线。深圳成指近期处于整理形态，同样运行在所有短期均线下方。需要密切关注短期均线能否重新收回。逢低关注 煤炭ETF、稀有金属ETF等。 风险 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The energy and chemical sectors experienced a decline, while basic and precious metals saw gains, with agricultural products showing mixed results [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71% and crude oil by 0.69%, while iron ore rose by 1.58% and coking coal dropped by 6.14% [1] - The basic metals sector saw lithium carbonate increase by 6.15%, copper by 1.12%, and aluminum by 0.97%, while precious metals like gold and silver rose by 3.47% and 7.55% respectively [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, influenced by geopolitical disturbances and OPEC's production decisions [2] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while the U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day [2] - The overall demand for oil remains weak, with U.S. refinery utilization at 89.4%, reflecting a marginal improvement but still low compared to previous years [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to increased demand and declining inventory levels, with a weekly increase of 6.15% [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production rose by 9.31% in October, but the operating rate was only 43%, indicating constraints in capacity release [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is significantly driven by the automotive battery sector, with a notable increase in battery installation and electric vehicle production [4][5] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy Developments - October's macroeconomic data indicates a gradual recovery in demand, supported by policy measures, with social financing increasing by 8,150 billion yuan [7] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements or interest rates to stimulate demand, with a focus on stabilizing growth as a core policy goal [8] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to provide temporary certainty, but the long-term impact on economic data and policy decisions remains uncertain [9][10]

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 2.71% and crude oil down 0.69% for the week [1] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while announcing a pause in production increases for Q1 2026 to alleviate seasonal inventory buildup [2] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, contributing to supply pressure [2] Group 2: Black Metal Sector - Iron ore prices increased by 1.58% for the week, while coking coal and coke prices decreased by 6.14% and 1.15%, respectively [1] - Domestic steel demand is weakening, while overseas steel demand remains strong, leading to a shift in iron ore fundamentals [10] Group 3: Basic Metals Sector - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 6.15% for the week, driven by increased supply and demand, with a closing price of 87,360 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43% [4][5] Group 4: Agricultural Products Sector - The egg market saw a decline of 5.78% for the week, while live pig prices increased by 0.89% [1] - The market is currently observing consumer demand trends and the potential for inventory reduction in the live pig sector [11]

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年11月16日 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡，受主产区结算电价下行影响，成本重心小幅下移，但同时底部成本支撑较为明显。当前基本面矛盾继续累积， 库存高企压制盘面高度，部分工厂已开展停炉减产，持续跟踪合金端的供应变动。 ◼ 宏观：国内：10月CPI同比转正，环比强于季节规律，PPI同比降幅连续3个月收窄；海外：美国政府停摆短期结束，市场交易主线转向 降息，联储官员鹰派发言导致市场对12月降息预期大幅下调。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量有所修复，但对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前合金基本面矛盾继续累积，需注意炉料负反馈节奏开启。 ◼ 本周硅铁端，受利润压缩及季节性检修影响，主产区部分工厂停炉减产，铁水虽环比小幅修复，但钢招量缩减，需求承接有限，工厂减 产计划仍存，需跟踪下游订单需求情况；锰硅端，成本端表现坚挺，供应环比小幅收缩，锰矿需求维持，四季 ...

研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 钢材：铁水下降空间仍存，成材强于原料 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量200万吨（-8.54），热卷小样本产量313.66万吨（-4.50）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日均 236.88万吨（+2.66），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率32.9%（+0.4）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3436 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-240.38元/吨左右，谷电成本3271（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润- 75元/吨。随着废钢价格的下跌，电流利润有所回升，但总体仍然亏损，导致电炉小幅增产，废钢日耗在50.88万吨， 环比略降；长流程钢利润仍然亏损但小幅修复，铁水产量本周出现增加。 需求：Mysteel统计本周小样本螺 ...