橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-10-10 节后两个交易日，橡胶盘面表现跟随外部宏观情绪波动，自身基本面驱动力度有限。节后首个交易日，国内金融市场消化 假期事件，其中"黄金"涨幅居前，继而带动贵金属，有色等板块。由于国内缺乏利空消息，海外风险事件反而促使资金 避险推升国内股市，在股市氛围回暖的带动下，多个商品板块共振上行。周五随着哈马斯宣布永久停火，地缘扰动有所降 温，叠加假期期间黄金涨幅过大，避险情绪回落带动黄金跌幅明显，国内股市也受到波及，回吐周四涨幅，市场情绪再度 降温。从橡胶基本面看，国庆假期结束，胶价表现略显坚挺，主产地区降雨天气持续扰动，成本端存支撑。节前下游补库， 带动库存延续去化，整体库存压力不大。但下游需求对橡胶基本面略显拖累，国庆假期期间，部分轮胎企业有5-8天检修 计划，使得企业产能利用率明显下滑，节后随着检修企业开工率将逐步恢复，受制于整体下游需求，后续开工率回升空间 有限。整体看，橡胶自身基本面因素对盘面驱动有限，盘面仍在区间内震荡为主。后续关注天气因素对割胶上量的影响。 基本面概况 目录 01 报告摘要 03 ...

夜幕低垂，财经频道上弹幕如雪片般飞舞："股市创新高，与我何干？工资何时能涨？""原油下跌，能否换来出行成本的些许降低？"没人期待确切的解答， 人们只盼着尽快度过这令人窒息的时刻，唯恐明日的新闻头条再次被"政府关门"、"联邦裁员"、"市场暴跌"等字眼所占据。 与此同时，华盛顿国会山下，抗议者举着标语牌，表达着对政府关门的不满。媒体主播则一脸严肃地警告说："这绝非儿戏，它可能会影响到基层公务员的 生计。" 然而，更多人关心的是，下周的工资能否按时发放，医保卡是否还能正常使用。 回首过去几日，无数数据、人物、镜头交织缠绕，宛如一团凌乱的麻花，令人难以理清头绪。表面上看似风平浪静，实则暗流涌动，危机四伏。决策者们似 乎在理性地权衡利弊，然而市场情绪却对此毫不买账。谁也无法预知明日将会发生什么，人们只能在下一个凌晨的报价到来之前，在又一轮不知所措的自我 追问中煎熬。 10月3日凌晨，全球金融市场笼罩在一片阴霾之中。分析师在朋友圈里发出感慨："金价回调不足为虑，关键在于宏观环境，全球目光都聚焦于美联储何时松 口。"有人立刻回复道："与其紧盯美联储，不如攥紧自己手中的真金白银。"这番对话，如同无数家庭厨房里的争论，理性与情 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 市场情绪降温，盘面震荡回落 工业硅/多晶硅 20250929 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格坚挺运行。截至2025年9月26日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为9000元/吨，环比 上周上涨200元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约震荡回落，截至9月26日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工持稳，下周有少量复产，预计在10月初产量有所回升；西北地区开工率基本稳定；云南地区开工 率整体稳定，10月云南进入平水期，电价相较前期有所提升，关注国庆节后开工率变化情况；四川地区开工基本持平， 10月底结束丰水期，预计减产在10月下旬。整体而言，本周工业硅产量基本持稳。 需求：多晶硅开工率小幅增加，近期硅料企业硅粉订单需求集中释放，市场成交较好，10月硅料企业减产不及预期， 叠加部分产能爬坡，预计产量仍将维持高位，对工业硅需求支撑较强；有机硅周度开工小幅波动，对工业硅需求维持 稳定；铝合金企业开工率基本稳定，节前备货采购有所增加。出口方面，8月工业硅出口7.66万吨，环比增加3.51%， 同比增加18 ...

国庆长假前就剩最后两个交易日了，手里的票该留还是该卖？资金该躺平还是找点机会？做了20年财经记者，又专做中长线投资，咱今天就把消息、政策、 资金这些事儿捋明白，给大伙说说实在的判断和策略。 技术面和资金流向这会儿特别典型。上证指数最近就在3800点的60日线和3900点的缺口之间晃悠，成交量从之前的万亿出头降到了九千多亿，这就是节前资 金"歇脚"的样子。资金动向也很清楚，之前涨得猛的科技股有资金兑现离场，银行、电力这些低估值高股息的防御板块反而被资金盯上了，还有人把闲钱拿 去买国债逆回购，毕竟年化能到3%以上，躺着赚点利息也香。 市场情绪这会儿就是"谨慎里带点期待"。期权的多空分歧已经到了年内高位，投资者情绪指数也在回落，大家都怕节前出意外，所以不敢轻易下手；但另一 方面，没人觉得会有系统性风险，不少人都在等节后的机会，这从历史数据也能看出来，国庆前最后两天沪指平均涨跌幅也就0.1%，基本是窄幅震荡的格 局。 结合这些情况，操作策略其实很简单，咱分三种情况说。要是你手里仓位很重，尤其是之前追了高位科技股的，不如顺势减到半仓以下，毕竟长假有太多不 确定性，先把部分利润落袋为安，中长线投资不怕少赚这两天的钱。要是 ...

- **Quantitative Timing Model: Volume Timing Signal** - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to assess market sentiment and provide timing signals for broad-based indices[23] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates the trading volume of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) and assigns a cautious view when volume contracts significantly[23][24] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious perspective on market timing, especially during periods of volume contraction[23] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio** - **Indicator Name**: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio - **Construction Idea**: The indicator measures the proportion of stocks within the CSI 300 index that have positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ HS300\ Upward\ Stock\ Count\ Ratio = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to capture short-term and long-term trends[24][28] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively captures upward opportunities but struggles to predict downward risks. It is prone to missing gains during sustained market exuberance[25] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Construction Idea**: The indicator uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the sentiment and trend of the CSI 300 index[31] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) for the CSI 300 index closing price[31] - Assign values based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price: - If the current price exceeds five moving averages, signal a bullish sentiment[32] - Smooth the sentiment indicator using two moving average windows (N1>N2) to generate buy/sell signals[31][32] - **Evaluation**: The indicator provides clear sentiment signals and aligns well with CSI 300 index trends[34] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Cross-Sectional Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to evaluate the alpha generation environment[36] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the standard deviation of returns for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[38] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to assess the alpha environment[38] - **Evaluation**: The indicator shows improved short-term alpha opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 500, while CSI 1000 remains average[36] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Time-Series Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Time-Series Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituent returns over time to assess alpha generation potential[38] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted time-series volatility for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[41] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to evaluate the alpha environment[41] - **Evaluation**: CSI 500 shows favorable alpha conditions, while CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remain average or below average[38] Backtesting Results for Models and Indicators - **Volume Timing Signal**: - Signal: Cautious for all major indices (Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc.)[24] - **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio**: - Recent Value: Approximately 60%[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: - Current Sentiment: CSI 300 index is in a bullish sentiment zone[34] - **Cross-Sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 2.04%, percentile = 73.50% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 2.19%, percentile = 67.46% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 2.40%, percentile = 66.14%[38] - **Time-Series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 0.63%, percentile = 61.70% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 0.45%, percentile = 74.60% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 0.24%, percentile = 59.76%[41]

近期痛苦——从现在开始交易仍将⾛⾼；⾼盛的流动 专家 2025/9/23 12:59 近期的痛苦——交易量从现在开始保持⾼位；⾼盛的资⾦流动专家 | ZeroHedge 作者：泰勒·德登 2025 年 9 ⽉ 23 ⽇星期⼆ - 凌晨 1:25 我们密切关注市场的潜在阻⼒——季节性疲软、养⽼⾦⽉末抛售、企业处于封锁期（但预计流⼊年末的 资⾦将反弹）以及系统性资⾦流转为负值的迹象。 鉴于今年夏天我们看到的低波动⽔平，投资者已经对冲并增加了下⾏保护，但在这种环境下，我们认为 短期痛苦交易将从现在开始。 尽管其他⽀撑指标（即系统性指标）表现为中性，但 机构群体的平衡定位、资⾦流动以及迄今为⽌持续 的零售竞标以及下⽂概述的其他因素为逐步⾛⾼铺平了道路。 1. MF流⼊/流出 根据《全球投资报告》，过去40年中，美联储在维持利率六个⽉或更⻓时间后降息的情况有⼋次。在那些 未导致经济衰退（基本符合当前共识）的降息事件中，流⼊股票基⾦的资⾦在随后的12个⽉内增⻓了 6%，这⽀持了市场温和上涨的预期。 另⼀个要点是：在增⻓、⾮衰退的基本情况下， 标准普尔 500 指数 的六个⽉平均回报率为 +8%，⼗⼆ 个⽉平均回报率为 + ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has significantly improved, with the market moving from a "neutral to slightly positive" state to a "significantly positive" range, indicating increased trading activity and investor confidence [4] Market Risk Assessment - The Zhongtai Asset Management risk system score for the stock market is 62.77, an increase from 59.65 last month, surpassing last year's highest score of 61.33 [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has slightly risen to 61.90 from 59.68 last month, marking five consecutive months of upward movement in overall market valuation [2] - The market expectation score has dropped significantly to 50.00 from 60.00 last month, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic data and policy implementation [2] Sector Performance - Among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, real estate, and defense have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, with real estate driven by fluctuating policy expectations [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector remains below the historical 10th percentile in valuation [2] Economic Indicators - August economic data shows a continued weak trend, with industrial output growth at 5.2% (down from 5.7%), retail sales growth at 3.4% (down from 3.7%), and fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% (down from 1.6%) [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is impacting production and investment, suggesting a potential overhang effect on data [8] Liquidity and Financing - In August, the social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,630 billion yuan year-on-year, while new RMB loans amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, down by 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year [9] - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates were 6% and 8.8%, respectively, both exceeding market expectations [9] - The bond market remains stable under a loose liquidity environment, with the ten-year government bond yield around 1.8% and the thirty-year yield at 2.2% [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]