| 指标 | | 12月23日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 395 | -4 | 2500 | ===== 16/17 == | | ====== 17/18 == | ===== 18/19 == | | ----- 19/20 24/25 | == 25/26 | | | 日照 | 335 | -4 | 2000 1000 500 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 355 | -4 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 355 | -4 | -500 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 05/21 | | | | 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | | 东莞 | 315 | -4 | | ...

12月18日收盘，纯碱主力合约上涨2.14%，收于1193.00元/吨。多部委推进"反内卷"，带动市场情绪偏乐观。供应端，纯碱产量 小幅上升。新产能投产背景下，长期供给压力较大。当前价格处于低位，成本抬升情况下，预计碱厂检修意愿较强，产量可能 下滑，后续重点关注供应情况。 需求端，光伏玻璃产量环比持稳，浮法玻璃产量环比下滑，价格下滑浮法玻璃冷修预期增加，纯碱需求端承压。 总体来看，重碱需求有走弱预期;轻碱需求较为稳定。库存端，下游补库带动碱厂库存持续下行，考虑到后续仍有检修，可能导 致供应下滑，碱厂累库压力短期有所缓解。当前需关注成本端支撑情况，动力煤在保供情况下，价格走弱，纯碱成本预计将下 移，震荡思路对待。 基本面来看，纯碱供应水平低位稳定，行业开工率昨日维持在82.05%。部分地区大厂降负荷，且后续仍有企业计划检修，纯碱 供应仍有波动。需求端表现一般，中下游低价采购，刚需跟进为主。玻璃产线冷修预期加强，纯碱刚需也存在继续回落预期。 纯碱基本面波动幅度不大，期货市场相关化工品种、黑色系品种集体走强提供联动效应，且市场对宏观、反内卷或环保、地产 政策等外部因素仍存预期。预计短期纯碱期货价格继续低位反弹，但当 ...

冰冻三尺，非一日之寒，水滴石穿，非一日之功，投资也是同样的道理，稳中求进不可操之过急。哪怕你现在的单子出现了亏损或是套单，也不用过于焦 虑，只要方向对了，选择正确，那么失去的终将会再回来，聪明的人结伴而行，愚钝的人固步自封。不管现在看文章的你是处于盈利还是亏损状态，都需要 保持一颗平常心来对待，胜不骄败不馁。人生有好有坏，有进也有退，如何面对，都取决于我们的心态，不同的心境会有不同的结果，你笑天是蓝的，你哭 天是阴的。一个好的心态是走好投资之路的指南针。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：WTI原油在周三亚洲时段交投于58.40美元附近，市场情绪在强劲美元与供应恢复的双重压力下趋于谨慎。<美国发布的最新就业岗位数据 明显好于预期，使美元出现阶段性反弹，直接削弱以美元计价的大宗商品价格表现。从美国劳工统计局发布的最新JOLTS报告来看，9月和10月职位空缺分 别达到765.8万和767万，均高于市场预期，显示美国劳动力市场仍具韧性。从市场结构来看，油价短期波动更多是消息驱动，但中期仍存在两大主线：其一 是美国劳动力及经济数据是否持续强势，从而支撑美元；其二是供应侧事件频繁导致的不确定性。库存数据的"改善预 ...

以下为2025年11月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/8 | 57, 750 | | | 2025/12/5 | 55, 375 | 91, 916 | | 2025/12/4 | 54, 325 | | | 2025/12/3 | 52, 450 | | | 2025/12/2 | 52, 375 | | | 2025/12/1 | 52, 025 | | | 2025/11/28 | 51, 750 | 95, 916 | | 2025/11/27 | 50, 800 | | | 2025/11/26 | 49, 925 | | | 2025/11/25 | 48, 000 | | | 2025/11/24 | 47,425 | | | 2025/11/21 | 47, 325 | 100, 347 | | 2025/11/20 | 46, 075 | | | 2025/11/19 | 45, 075 | | | 2025/11/18 | 43, 525 | | | 2025/11/17 | 39 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support US soybean prices. Without obvious weather issues, the market is expected to shift to trading the supply pressure of South American new crops from December to January. The new - crop discount trend may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - CONB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean output in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (compared to 58.4% last week, 73.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 67.2%). As of November 13, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 15% (7% last week and 25% last year). There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks, and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern should be monitored. Domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchasing progress for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and recent downstream long - term contracts for soybean meal have seen high trading volumes with good提货 performance [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7]. Price and Spread - On November 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 79. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was 49, - 11, - 11, - 21, - 21, - 31 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 10, with a change of 6. The M1 - M5 spread was 196, down 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, down 3. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 531, down 20 and 16 respectively [4][5]. Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1056, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The domestic port and major oil - mill soybean inventories, major oil - mill soybean meal inventories, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, major oil - mill operating rates, and major oil - mill soybean crushing volumes are presented in the form of historical data trends [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with unilateral trading and arbitrage both rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of asphalt follows crude oil, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. In September, the traditional peak season, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but the contradiction is not prominent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: - In September 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41%) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17%). From January to September, the total production is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18%). The increase is due to factors such as good profit margins, sufficient low - cost raw materials, and the resumption or planned production increase of some refineries [4] - Southeast Asian asphalt resources are in tight supply, supporting import prices. Korean asphalt prices in September have slightly declined compared to August, while Singapore and Thai asphalt prices remain firm [4] - **Demand**: - Demand release is less than expected. In the north, some demand has slightly increased, and in the south, demand has slightly recovered with less rainfall. This year's peak season may not be prosperous, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work is likely to be disproven [4] - This week, domestic refinery shipments reached 404,000 tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. Shipments in North China decreased due to rain and project suspension, while those in East and South China increased [4] - **Inventory**: - This week, domestic factory inventories decreased, especially in Shandong. The reasons are intermittent production suspension, product conversion, and the fulfillment of previous orders [4] - Social inventories also decreased, with significant regional differentiation. In the Northeast, high prices and reduced production led to inventory reduction, and in the Northwest, project rush - work increased demand [4] - **Cost**: - International oil prices first rose for three consecutive days due to positive inventory data and geopolitical factors, then fluctuated. The initial decline was due to concerns about trade and the re - evaluation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the subsequent rise was due to a decline in US inventories [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [15][16][17] - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025, as well as the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) [23][27] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions (North China, South China, Northeast, Shandong, East China) from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36][37] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][47] 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [51][53][54] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [56][57] 3.7 Demand - **Shipments**: It shows the shipments of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [60] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][64][66][67][69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively bullish as inventories of crude oil and major refined products have all declined. Although the refinery operating rate has decreased, the strong diesel demand is reassuring for market bulls. With the start of the autumn harvest, diesel demand will seasonally strengthen, and the relatively low distillate inventory may keep distillate cracking firm, thus supporting refining demand. After the data was released last night, oil prices generally fluctuated upwards [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.392 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 776,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, falling short of the expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 900,000 barrels [2] - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased from 420.684 million barrels to 418.292 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 23.47 million barrels to 22.632 million barrels; U.S. strategic reserve inventory increased from 403.425 million barrels to 404.201 million barrels; U.S. gasoline inventory decreased from 223.57 million barrels to 222.334 million barrels; U.S. distillate inventory decreased from 116.028 million barrels to 114.242 million barrels; U.S. total crude oil chain inventory decreased from 1.666537 billion barrels to 1.662919 billion barrels [3] Production, Import, Processing, and Demand Data - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. crude oil production increased from 13.382 million barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2.125 million barrels per day to 2.424 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased from 17.208 million barrels per day to 16.88 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased from 21.093 million barrels per day to 21.14975 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. gasoline apparent demand increased from 9.0085 million barrels per day to 9.0305 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. distillate apparent demand increased from 3.74825 million barrels per day to 3.88225 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. jet fuel apparent demand decreased from 1.8815 million barrels per day to 1.7905 million barrels per day [3] Market Analysis - Last week, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. Although the commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, the decline in the refinery operating rate slightly diluted the positive effect. The weekly refinery operating rate decreased by 2.0% to 94.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the driving peak season usually ends on the Labor Day weekend in early September, after which the refinery operating rate shows a seasonal decline [4] - In the refined product market, gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumption ability or willingness of U.S. residents in the context of low oil prices. However, distillate demand has continued to rebound, far exceeding last year's level and the average of previous years last week, leading to an unexpected decrease in distillate inventory. As autumn approaches, distillate demand will increase with the autumn harvest while the inventory is relatively low, and distillate cracking is expected to remain firm. The market will focus more on distillates in the future [6]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have been adjusted downwards, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan respectively, effective from August 26, 2025 [2][4]. Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.15 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.15 yuan per liter for 0 diesel. Filling a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline will save approximately 7 yuan [3]. - For private vehicles, assuming a monthly distance of 2000 kilometers and an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost per vehicle will decrease by around 10 yuan before the next price adjustment window on September 9, 2025 [3]. - In the logistics sector, for heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost per vehicle will drop by approximately 266 yuan before the next adjustment [4]. Historical Price Changes - In 2025, there have been 17 rounds of adjustments in domestic fuel prices, with a net result of 6 increases, 7 decreases, and 4 periods of no change. The current prices for gasoline and diesel have decreased by 405 yuan/ton and 390 yuan/ton respectively compared to the beginning of the year [4][5]. International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced mixed factors, with geopolitical tensions easing and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut influencing oil prices. Recent trends show oil prices initially declining before rebounding [6][8]. - As of the latest reports, Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel, following a period of strong price recovery [8]. - The recent rise in oil prices has been attributed to geopolitical conflicts, particularly the impact of Ukraine's actions against Russian energy facilities, which have raised concerns about supply disruptions [8][9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite increasing geopolitical risks, oil prices remain within a relatively narrow range, indicating strong underlying market fundamentals [8][9]. - The market is closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia, which could further influence oil supply uncertainties [9]. - Current trends indicate that the recent rebound in oil prices may lead to expectations of future increases in domestic fuel retail prices [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][5][7] Core Viewpoints - The oil price fluctuates to find a direction under the background of OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes, and is expected to continue the oscillating rhythm in the short term [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies; the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the internal and external price difference is expected to remain low [2] - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [2] - The polyester products are affected by device conditions and downstream demand, and the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - The rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the balance of supply and demand [3][5] - The methanol price is expected to oscillate as the import volume may increase and the MTO profit is compressed [5] - The polyolefin supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - The PVC price is expected to continue oscillating due to the off - season demand and the change of basis and monthly spread structure [5][7] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center moved slightly higher. OPEC+ is expected to announce an 8 - month daily production increase of 411,000 barrels on July 6. Trump's trade remarks and inventory data affect the oil price, which is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures prices fell on Tuesday. The inventory of imported raw material oil in Shandong decreased year - on - year. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the price may rebound briefly, while the low - sulfur supply is sufficient [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Tuesday. The July production is expected to increase. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX fluctuated on Tuesday. The MEG and PTA devices are affected, and the downstream demand is weak, so the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The rubber futures prices rose on Tuesday. The heavy - truck sales increased in June, but the raw material price decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] - **Methanol**: The methanol spot prices are given. With the recovery of Iranian devices, the import volume may increase, and the MTO profit compression may lead to device maintenance, so the price is expected to oscillate [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profits of polyolefins are provided. The supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. With the off - season demand, the price is expected to continue oscillating [5][7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical commodities on July 2, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc [8] Market News - Investors are concerned about the trade negotiations before the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump. The US Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may be raised significantly [10] - The US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by about 700,000 barrels last week, and there were also changes in other inventory data [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various commodities from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc [12][13][14][16][19][22][23][25] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts of various commodities are provided, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33][36][39][40] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [42][44][47][50][51][55][57][58] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spread and ratio charts between different commodities are presented, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [59][61][65][66] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc are shown [68][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience and many awards [72] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with professional background and achievements [73] - **Di Yilin**: An analyst of natural rubber and polyester, with awards and media exposure [74] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with relevant academic and practical experience [75] Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [77]