Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a substantial outflow of funds, indicating a change in market sentiment towards this once-booming sector [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - In the past three weeks, the holding volume and capital flow in the lithium carbonate futures market have changed, with long contracts being quietly closed and a considerable amount of capital leaving the market [1]. - As of September 16, 2025, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%, a month-on-month decline of 11.94%, and a year-on-year drop of 8.33% [1]. Market Sentiment - A large-scale exit of long positions has been observed, with one trading supervisor reporting a 15% loss from closing their remaining long positions, which they deemed a wise decision compared to the risks of holding [2][6]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened significantly lower, reaching a minimum of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the limit down, and closing with a drop of over 5% [2][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The anticipated resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL has heightened market expectations, leading to a shift in supply dynamics [3][12]. - The price of lithium carbonate has been affected by a decrease in production costs, with the cost of purchasing spodumene for lithium carbonate production dropping from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. - In August, China's lithium carbonate production reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices [14]. Demand Trends - Demand for lithium carbonate is showing signs of weakness, particularly in traditional sectors, with a notable decline in sales of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles [15]. - Despite a slight increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain weak, leading to a cautious inventory strategy among companies [15][16]. Market Adjustments - Following the withdrawal of long positions, the market is seeking a new price equilibrium, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate between 65,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton in the near term [18]. - Companies are adjusting their strategies, with some integrating upstream resources and others entering trial production phases for new lithium projects [19]. Technological Innovations - New technologies such as lithium recycling and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Despite short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, with projected annual demand growth of over 15% in the next five years [21].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a decline in prices, driven by changing supply and demand dynamics and expectations of increased production from major players like CATL [2][9][10]. Market Dynamics - The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.07% decrease week-on-week and an 11.94% decline month-on-month [2]. - On September 10, the main futures contract opened significantly lower, reaching a low of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the daily limit down [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish, with a high proportion of short positions among the top 20 futures companies [4]. Supply and Demand Changes - The recent price drop is attributed to a transformation in the supply-demand fundamentals, particularly due to the anticipated resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine [9][10]. - Lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply [13]. - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene has decreased from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to approximately 65,000 yuan/ton, further weakening the support for prices [11]. Demand Trends - Demand from traditional sectors, particularly mid-to-low-end electric vehicles, has shown signs of weakness, with battery manufacturers focusing on inventory reduction [14]. - Despite a 5% increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain low due to ongoing price declines [14]. - The only bright spot in demand is the energy storage sector, which has seen its production share rise to 38.5%, a historical high [15]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, with many inquiries but limited actual transactions, reflecting concerns over further price declines [16]. - High-cost producers, particularly those relying on lithium mica, are facing significant losses and may reduce production or exit the market [17]. Future Outlook - The market is currently seeking a new price equilibrium, with long-term expectations suggesting prices will fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Some companies are adjusting their strategies, such as Ganfeng Lithium integrating lithium salt lake assets in Argentina [20]. - New technologies in lithium recovery and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Industry experts predict that lithium demand will maintain an annual growth rate of over 15% in the next five years, indicating a potential return to supply-demand balance [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - **PTA**: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - **MEG**: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - **Urea**: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - **Styrene**: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - **Propylene**: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call involves Ganfeng Lithium, a company in the lithium battery and materials industry. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics** - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are not primarily driven by demand, as end-user demand remains stable, particularly in battery procurement. The supply side, particularly from Australian miners, is a significant factor in price changes [2][5][6]. 2. **Cost Trends in Mining** - Mining costs have decreased significantly, with some Australian mines reporting cost reductions of several percentage points. This has contributed to a perception of a "cost collapse" in the market [3][4]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Price Movements** - The current price drop in lithium may be a temporary phenomenon, influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental demand changes. The company maintains a long-term price outlook of around 70,000, suggesting that prices below 60,000 may not be sustainable [5][6]. 4. **Ganfeng's Integrated Business Model** - Ganfeng has developed a comprehensive integrated business model, expanding from battery cell production to downstream applications, including energy storage solutions. This diversification is expected to drive growth [7][11]. 5. **Investment in Energy Storage** - The company is focusing on energy storage projects, which are anticipated to be significant growth areas. The strategy includes both industrial storage and independent shared storage solutions [7][11]. 6. **Impact of Lithium Prices on Battery Demand** - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase, with a lower sensitivity to lithium price fluctuations due to the long-term investment nature of downstream projects [8][12]. 7. **Technological Innovations** - Innovations such as solid-state batteries are seen as critical for improving energy density and reducing costs, which could benefit the entire supply chain [13][14]. 8. **Cost Management and Financial Strategy** - The company is exploring innovative financing methods to manage capital expenditures and maintain a balanced approach to growth across various segments [15][16]. 9. **Project Updates and Cost Expectations** - Ongoing projects, such as the Mariana and Oleros mines, are expected to have varying cost structures and production timelines, with the Mariana project facing longer ramp-up times due to harsher conditions [21][22]. 10. **Recycling and Sustainability Efforts** - Ganfeng is expanding its recycling capabilities, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance sustainability and manage raw material costs effectively [25][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining quality across the supply chain, particularly for long-term projects that require reliability over extended periods [12]. - There is a recognition of the cyclical nature of the lithium market, with expectations of price volatility and the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [10][13]. - The call also highlighted the potential for collaboration with larger state-owned enterprises in the recycling and supply chain sectors, indicating a strategic approach to partnerships [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of oscillation, with different sub - sectors showing varying trends. There is no strong driving force for a significant rebound in the black metal sector in the short - term, and investors should adopt a cautious and wait - and - see approach, making specific trading decisions based on different varieties [5][62][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Tends to be bearish. Long - process steel mills have profit, and short - process profit is unstable. Overall production is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely without administrative requirements [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. There is a slight improvement in demand, and exports remain strong. However, the market is worried about the weakening of demand expectations, and the upward price drive is not strong [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The total inventory level is low, and the seasonal inventory reduction is slowing down. The industry is in an active de - stocking state [5] - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is stable, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 58, an increase of 7 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process production has profit, while short - process production profit is unstable, and the production cut amplitude has increased slightly [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are thin profits in the industrial chain, with relatively low relative valuation and room for compression in absolute valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The real estate market has declined further, and the market has low expectations for incremental policies [5] - **Investment View**: Wait - and - see. There is no strong driving force for a rebound in the black metal sector in the off - season, and the basis structure of futures at a discount to spot can be used as a reference for basis trading [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conduct rolling hedging and manage positions, and consider appropriate inventory rotation; for arbitrage, short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel; for basis trading, consider short - term basis trading [5] 3.2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has shown resilience, and the daily average hot - metal production has slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills is fair, and the hot - metal production has strong resilience in the off - season [62] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Domestic coal mines are in a state of mixed shutdown and resumption. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a medium - low level, and the shipping coal market sentiment has slightly improved [62] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has continued to decline, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall profits of coke enterprises are still good considering by - product revenues [62] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain low inventory levels, and there are differences in coal mine data. As the end of the month approaches, the short - term supply disturbances may subside [62] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The fourth round of coke price cuts has been initiated, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, leading to an increase in basis trading [62] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have good profitability, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall situation of coke enterprises is still acceptable [62] - **Summary**: Bearish. Affected by the Israel - Palestine conflict and improved industrial data, the black metal sector has been strong, but the divergence between the futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke is large. It is recommended that industrial customers conduct hedging, and ordinary investors wait and see [62] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively conduct basis hedging; for arbitrage, long the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal [62] 3.3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bearish. Iron ore shipments are seasonally increasing, and the arrival pressure will gradually materialize. The marginal increase in supply will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [111] - **Demand**: Bearish. Steel mill hot - metal production has slightly increased and remains at a relatively high level. Steel demand has shown resilience in the off - season, but the market is still waiting for a decline in downstream steel demand [111] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Port inventory has slightly decreased this period, but the subsequent inventory of ports and ships at anchor will continue to increase [111] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still high, and hot - metal production can remain at a high level in the short - term [111] - **Valuation**: Neutral. Hot - metal production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [111] - **Summary**: Neutral. The slight decline in hot - metal production has led to a transition from slight inventory reduction to slight inventory accumulation in port inventory. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, steel mill production cuts are necessary [111] - **Investment View**: Oscillation [111] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see [111]

Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [6] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [6] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, with energy prices rising and downstream acceptance poor. The alumina market has a continuous decline in spot market transactions, and the supply is expected to be in excess. The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [3][5]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,585 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume was 143,884 lots, an increase of 8,282 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 175,674 lots, a decrease of 22,949 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 449,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 344,950 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - The spot market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. The supply side has no negative factors in China, but there is a risk of production cuts at the Rio Tinto electrolytic aluminum plant in Australia. The consumption side shows marginal weakness, and the inventory reduction rate slows down. There is a condition for continuous squeezing of positions in China under the current low - inventory situation [3]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,175 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,901 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 250,405 lots, a decrease of 209,382 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 300,995 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - The spot market transactions have a continuous decline. The electrolytic aluminum plants have stable long - term supply, and the spot procurement frequency is reduced. The alumina plants have no great sales pressure under long - term supply guarantee. The supply has increased with the resumption of production of long - term overhauled capacity and the release of new capacity in North China. The cost of alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and the supply is expected to be in excess [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons, the in - factory inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons, and the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [2]. Market Analysis - It is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. Strategies Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6]. Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a trading range, and it is advisable to seize hedging opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The rebound height of finished steel is relatively limited, and the market will enter a period of tug - of - war. It is recommended to use the volatile market to rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and the futures are at a premium to the spot. The market is in a state of indecision. Industrial customers can actively participate in selling hedging, while single - side trading can wait for a clearer situation. In the medium - to - long - term, the bottom of coking coal has not been confirmed [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Their prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [7]. - For iron ore, the overall weak trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Data** - On June 16, 2025, for far - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601), the closing prices were 2985.00 yuan/ton, 3101.00 yuan/ton, 675.00 yuan/ton, 1392.50 yuan/ton, and 810.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.78%, 1.04%, 0.52%, 2.35%, and 3.05%. For near - month contracts (RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, JM2509), the closing prices were 2990.00 yuan/ton, 3104.00 yuan/ton, 704.50 yuan/ton, 1371.00 yuan/ton, and 795.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.21%, 1.90%, and 2.84% [3]. - On June 16, 2025, the cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, spot prices, and basis data for various varieties were also provided, along with their changes [3]. **Steel Market** - On Monday, the spot and futures prices rebounded slightly, but the willingness to sell spot goods increased, and the price rebound was hesitant. Overseas, the Iran situation may have an indirect impact on the coal market in the capital market, but its influence on the spot market is weak. Domestically, the steel spot market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. The US tariff increase on steel - based household appliances and the suspension of domestic home appliance national subsidy policies have increased the supply - demand pressure in the hot - rolled coil market. It is recommended to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke Market** - In the spot market, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and port prices are weak. In the futures market, the black chain index has strengthened, and coking coal led the rise. Macroscopically, domestic policies are mainly for bottom - support, and overseas disturbances are numerous. Industrially, steel demand is seasonally weak, and steel production has decreased. Coking coal inventories at the mine mouth continue to accumulate, but supply is affected by safety and environmental issues. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and industrial customers can participate in selling hedging [6]. **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market** - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, but direct demand has weakened, and cost support has declined. For silicomanganese, supply has increased from a low level, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened. Their prices are expected to be under pressure [7]. **Iron Ore Market** - The overall weak trend of iron ore remains unchanged. Ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories have shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. The black market is entering the off - season, and downstream pressure is intensifying. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. **Investment Strategies** - For steel, maintain a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management, and rotate inventory for spot goods. For coking coal and coke, industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging. For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, buy put options at high prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recent continuous decline in urea prices is due to cost collapse from falling coal prices and lagging domestic agricultural demand caused by weather [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support urea prices, and the possibility of a significant further decline is low as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has decreased [1] - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, and mid - term strategy is to go long on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures price: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1696 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; UR05 at 1718 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; UR09 at 1761 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [1] - Domestic spot prices: prices in Shanxi, Henan, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Hebei, it rose 0.54% to 1860 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, while melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, with Shandong down 1.03% and Jiangsu down 1.80% [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1800 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1803 yuan/ton, a low of 1755 yuan/ton, closed at 1761 yuan/ton, and settled at 1774 yuan/ton, with a position of 231078 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent continuous decline of urea is mainly due to two reasons: the cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions [1]. - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price. As it is still the peak season for top - dressing of crops such as corn and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea prices is low. The risk to consider is the change in export policies [1]. - The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 1705 yuan/ton; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 1721 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1773 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from 1784 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic spot prices: Shandong decreased by 0.53% to 1870 yuan/ton; Henan decreased by 0.54% to 1850 yuan/ton; other regions such as Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 14 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1787 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1793 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1773 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1778 yuan/ton, and the position was 225127 lots [1].