房地产：2026 行业展望及投资策略更新 20251124 摘要 中国房地产市场自二季度降温，房价回落至 2024 年 9 月前水平，新房 交易量同比跌幅扩大，二手房交易量环比走弱，土地市场溢价率低于 5%。市场复苏需修复房价收入比偏高和库存过大问题，并结合宽松货币 政策。 在中性情景下，预计总住房交易量将进一步收窄至-5%左右，新开工面 积同比下降 16%，房地产投资同比跌幅约 15%。若政策定向解决周期 堵点，如存量住房收储、降息等，市场或迎来更积极发展。 当前房地产市场处于筑底阶段，人均一二手房交易套数已进入底部区间， 预计未来 1-2 年内仍有小幅下跌。城市改造在激发需求方面更具潜力， 但受土地市场流动性限制，效果存在不确定性。 头部主流房企股价相对于净清算价值折让幅度超过 40%，处于中偏深水 平。对 2026、2027 年房价假设为两位数幅度下滑，预期较为保守。预 计 2027 年开始利润反弹，具体斜率取决于 2026 年房价变化。 短期内对地产股走势保持审慎，明年二季度后宏观经济或有积极进展， 有望看到拐点并进行贝塔投资。2025 年商业地产表现良好，受益于同 店零售额增长和长期资本寻求高股息回 ...

招商蛇口 20251117 摘要 招商蛇口签约销售金额与去年持平，核心城市房价趋稳，成交量提升， 尤其在上海获取多个核心地块，为未来销售提供支持。公司正逐步收缩 拿地城市范围，集中于国内最好的 10 个核心城市。 公司财务稳健，三季度末货币资金余额为 850 亿元。前三季度营收和税 前毛利率增长，但归母净利润略降。预计四季度毛利率可能下降，但整 体处于筑底过程，2026 年后有望逐步回升。 招商蛇口认为当前房地产市场处于筑底态势，一二线核心资产及改善型 需求突出，存在结构性机会。预计四季度政策不会有突破性进展，市场 将延续筑底，期待宏观经济好转带动供需关系改善。 公司积极推动经营性资产出表，已发行产业园和保租房 REITs，并筹备 消费型商业地产 REITs。计划每年都有持有类项目进入 REITs 平台，实 现投融、建管、退的循环。 REITs 发行速度较慢，对营收影响较小，但对利润影响显著。公司通过 发行优先股降低负债率，优化负债结构和成本。同时，公司也在进行退 换地工作，加快去化不良资产，改善现金流。 Q&A 请介绍一下招商蛇口在全面推进好房子建设背景下的最新变化和经营情况。 招商蛇口近期在深圳高交会举办 ...

银行为何可以八折卖房？你可别意味着银行是火烧眉毛，没有办法才这样做。实际上银行卖的不是房，而是房子作为载体的贷款。这是什么意思呢？ 可是如果把房子卖出去，那就可以找到房贷的接盘侠，这样一来，等于另外那100万的利润也有了着落了。这样哪怕房子以市场价格80万卖出去，银行总计 还可以回收到180万的资金。这样肯定比一分钱利润都没有强多了。同时以八折卖房，那速度也肯定要快于市场其他渠道的房源。 这就是银行卖房的逻辑，表面上看着是卖房，实际上是卖房贷。那银行这样干，对房地产市场到底是好还是坏呢？ 因为银行觉得自己有一个优势，因为可以比远低于市场价格来卖这套房子。这里面的逻辑是什么呢？因为我们上面说了，房子市价是100万，如果断供了， 银行哪怕是通过拍卖处理了房子，也只是回收本金而已。 你可能觉得大量廉价房产进入市场，对房价肯定是一个巨大冲击。这确实没有错，可是长期来看，这对加速房地产筑底是有好处的，因为这可以加速银行的 资金周转效率，也可以加速不良资产的处置。换句话说这一招实际上就是空间换时间，要更大的房价下降空间，换来更快的筑底过程。 比如说一套房子100万，你贷款30年，最后银行可以回收大约200万的资金，其中1 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. Market Changes - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2]. - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant portion of demand now being met through second-hand housing, while new housing is increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][6]. Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the sales of new residential properties have been on a continuous decline, with a notable policy shift in September 2024 aimed at stabilizing the market [3][6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [6][10]. Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching a peak share of 68% in July [6][10]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand housing prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a rise in new housing prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [11][13]. - The investment focus of real estate companies has shifted towards core cities, with significant land auction prices being recorded in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [14][16]. Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new housing market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities [17][21]. - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant increases in transactions for properties priced between 10 million to 20 million yuan in cities like Beijing and Chengdu [20][21]. Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan: Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [21][22].

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Shanghai concluded with a total revenue of 198.77 billion yuan, representing a 7.47% premium over the starting price of 184.95 billion yuan [1] Company Analysis - China Overseas Land & Investment (中海) actively participated in the auction for the 188N-1-21 plot in the core area of Xuhui Riverside, bidding 44.65 billion yuan, which corresponds to a floor price of 148,503 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for the area [4][5] - The company has faced challenges in Shanghai, with its total sales in the eastern region dropping from 267.2 billion yuan in the previous year to 137.78 billion yuan, nearly halving its sales and falling from first to seventh place in rankings [6] - As of mid-2023, China Overseas had only one active project in Shanghai, indicating a significant reduction in its market presence [6][8] Industry Trends - The real estate market in core cities like Beijing and Shanghai has shown resilience, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and a notable year-on-year increase of 5.6% in Shanghai [7] - The demand for high-quality properties in core urban areas remains strong, driven by the release of premium housing and the easing of purchase restrictions in peripheral areas [5] - Analysts predict that policy easing in the fourth quarter will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, while non-core areas and many smaller cities will need to rely on price reductions to clear inventory [5]

Core Insights - The current Chinese real estate market has transitioned from a high-growth "golden era" to a transformation period focused on "stability" and structural optimization [1] - The market is no longer reliant on a single scale expansion logic but is characterized by multidimensional structural adjustments driven by policy reinforcement of "housing is for living, not for speculation" and the industry's internal demand for deleveraging and upgrading [1] Market Characteristics - Price differentiation and stabilization are the core operational features of the current market, resulting from long-term supply-demand relationships, urban development levels, and industrial support capabilities [3] - Core cities continue to experience resilient housing demand due to population inflow and concentrated public service resources, while third and fourth-tier cities face price corrections due to population outflow and oversupply [3] - Policy measures have implemented differentiated controls to prevent rapid price increases in hot cities and excessive declines in others, promoting a shift from "imbalance" to "structural balance" [3] Industry Trends - The concentration of real estate companies is an inevitable trend under the backdrop of deleveraging and risk prevention, marking a shift from "barbaric growth" to "high-quality development" [3] - Smaller companies that relied on high leverage and turnover are facing financial strain and potential market exit, while financially stable and operationally strong leading firms are expanding market share through mergers and acquisitions [3] - Increased concentration reduces disorderly competition and allows firms to focus more on product innovation and service upgrades, enhancing overall industry development quality [3] Policy Implications - The increase in affordable housing supply is a key policy measure to strengthen the "people-oriented" approach and improve the housing security system, balancing market supply and demand [5] - The types of affordable housing have diversified, extending from traditional public rental housing to shared ownership and rental housing, covering a broader range of demographics [5] - The rise in affordable housing supply alleviates housing pressure on low- and middle-income groups and diverts some demand from the commodity housing market, preventing excessive price increases [5] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is in a bottoming process, characterized by a stable construction rather than a simple rebound from market downturns, driven by coordinated efforts across policy, supply, and demand dimensions [5] - Policies are optimizing credit conditions and relaxing purchase restrictions to release reasonable housing demand, while supply-side measures include renovation expansions and increased affordable housing [5] - Demand is gradually shifting from speculative to rigid and improvement needs, leading to stabilized transaction volumes and reduced price volatility [5] Technological Integration - In the context of market bottoming and companies pursuing refined operations, technology empowerment is becoming a crucial support for the real estate industry's transformation [6] - Sales management software, leveraging big data and cloud platform technologies, addresses traditional sales model issues and provides precise decision-making support [6] - This integrated solution meets the industry's demand for efficient and convenient operations, enhancing sales management capabilities [6] Operational Efficiency - High-quality sales software aligns with the entire real estate sales process, addressing various pain points in sales management [8] - The software standardizes customer, property, and financial management processes, reducing errors from manual operations [8] - It covers the entire sales cycle, allowing companies to monitor sales dynamics in real-time and adjust strategies accordingly, ultimately improving operational efficiency and profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, with operating income of 53.37 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment provisions and a rise in expense ratios [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 23.5% year-on-year decrease in operating income, totaling 53.37 billion yuan, and a net profit drop of 89.7% to 210 million yuan [1]. - The decline in profit was attributed to increased impairment provisions, which amounted to 1.72 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan compared to the same period last year, and a rise in the combined expense ratio to 7.0%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Land Acquisition and Inventory - The company added 35 new projects in the first half of the year, with an expected saleable value of 90.7 billion yuan, representing a 172% year-on-year increase, ranking third nationally [2]. - 88% of the new land reserves are located in first and second-tier cities, with 47% specifically in Hangzhou, and the total saleable inventory as of the end of June was 451.8 billion yuan, with 80% in first and second-tier cities, an increase of 4 percentage points from the end of last year [2]. Sales Efficiency - The company achieved a sales amount of 80.3 billion yuan from self-invested projects, a decline of 6% year-on-year, which is 5 percentage points lower than the average decline among the top 100 real estate companies [2]. - The focus on core cities has led to an increase in the proportion of sales in first and second-tier cities to 86%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with a first launch absorption rate of 80%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its buy rating and target price unchanged, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.58 yuan for 2025 and 2026, and 0.61 yuan for 2027, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term performance in the "good housing" era [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with limited upside potential. It is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential in the short term. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,475 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 10,736 hands to 194,458 hands, while those of alumina increased by 6,732 hands to 239,364 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 175 tons to 8,050 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,425 tons to 416,975 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, up 0.06 [2]. - The closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract was 19,820 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; its main contract positions increased by 85 hands to 8,393 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - Ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast - aluminum alloy decreased by 530 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 35 yuan to 45 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan to 100 yuan/ton; the LME aluminum premium increased by 1.92 dollars to - 1.48 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The alumina supply - demand balance was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste increased by 50 yuan to 16,100 yuan/ton; the average price in Shandong metal waste was unchanged at 15,700 yuan/ton. China's import of aluminum waste and scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons to 223,095.59 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons to 32,094.07 tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.03% to 97.68% [2]. - The aluminum product production decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons to 48.90 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real - estate climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the automobile production increased by 16.70 million vehicles to 280.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.82% to 8.83%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 9.34%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased by 0.0027% to 8.69%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0094 to 1.15 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June in the US, CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September [2]. - In the first half of the year in China, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year; national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year, while private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. The average national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year and decreased by 0.16% month - on - month [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 6,605.36 billion yuan, up 5.3% year - on - year. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and that in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year. Quarter - on - quarter, the second - quarter GDP increased by 1.1% [2]. - In June, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with new - home prices rising month - on - month, with Shanghai and Changsha leading with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose month - on - month [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract fluctuated and declined, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply of domestic bauxite was sufficient, and the supply of alumina was expected to remain high in the short term. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was stable with a slight increase, and the inventory increased due to the off - season. The downstream demand was weak, and it is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. 3.10 Cast - Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast - aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand of cast - aluminum alloy were both weak, but the cost support was strong. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]