止跌回稳。 不过，丁祖昱也给出了"房地产仍是经济发展支柱"的判断。从房地产增加值占GDP比重、商品住房销售额等指标来看，房地产在国民经济中的 地位仍然重要。 丁祖昱预判，未来10-20年，中国商品房(新房市场+二手房市场)年交易总量将稳定在8-9亿平方米的区间，行业逐步进入存量交易主导的稳态市 场。 克而瑞数据显示，2025年30个重点城市一二手房成交面积3.26亿平方米，同比微跌7%，一线城市跌幅最小，为5%。 具体来看，2025年，百城新房成交量小幅下行，上海、成都分列新房成交面积、金额榜首。2025年新房均价整体与去年持平，一线城市还有 2%的增长。二手房方面，克而瑞指出，30个重点城市二手房成交面积约2.14亿平方米，为近5年新高。 辞旧迎新之际，房地产行业也迎来总结与展望。 1月7日，在"丁祖昱评楼市"2026年度发布会上，行业资深观察者丁祖昱结合产品创新实践与多维度数据解析，明确指出2026年中国房地产行业 将迎来底部企稳。这一判断与近期中指研究院、亿翰智库的行业展望高度契合。 中指研究院强调，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，政策靠前发力与供求关系改善将推动市场筑底。亿翰智库则以房企年末销售回暖 ...

☉ 文／克而瑞 | | | | 2025年1-12月 ·中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 销售金额 | | | | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘金额 | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘面积 | | | | (亿元) | | | (万平方米) | | 1 | 绿城中国 | 2519.0 | 1 | 绿城中国 | 1208.0 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 2392. 1 | 2 | 保利发展 | 1126. 2 | | 3 | 保利发展 | 2328.0 | 3 | 中海地产 | 1044.2 | | 4 | 本润置地 | 2101. 1 | 4 | 万科地产 | 950. 7 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 1858. 2 | 5 | 本润置斯 | 844.8 | | 6 | 万科地产 | 1249.6 | 6 | 绿地控股 | 731.5 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 1204. 7 | 7 | 招商蛇口 | 688.0 | | 8 | 中国金茂 | 976. 1 | 8 | 龙湖集团 | 620. 7 | | d | 龙湖集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].

同时，一线城市二手住宅的房价环比跌幅依旧扩大。数据显示，今年11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和1.0%。 值得一提的是，北京为70城中跌幅第二大城市，扬州领跌，跌幅为1.4%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅与上月相同；三线城市则环比 下降0.6%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 华夏时报记者李凯旋北京报道 12月15日，国家统计局发布今年11月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据和前11月房地产开发投资数据。数据显示，今年11月份，70个大中城市商品住 宅销售价格环比总体下降，同比降幅扩大。 具体来看，一线城市新房价格、二手房价格环比降幅均扩大，70城二手房价格同比均未跑赢上年同期。同时，今年前11月房地产开发投资金额降幅比上一 统计期扩大，销售数据也持续下跌。 一线城市房价继续下跌 值得关注的是，一线城市房价环比延续下跌趋势。数据显示，今年11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分 点。其中，上海上涨0.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.5%、0 ...

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今天，一份关键数据出炉了——11月全国70城房价，环比、同比继续双降。这 意味着房价已经连续第8个月走低。我看到很多朋友的第一反应是："楼市是不是彻底没戏了？" 别急， 作为一个看了20年经济数据的老记者，我想说，这份冰冷的统计数据背后，既有我们必须正视的风险预 警，也藏着中长线投资者值得关注的重大转折信号。 这份数据最核心的看点，不是"跌了"，而是 "如何跌" 。简单说，就是分化加剧：一线城市的抗跌性明 显更强，环比微降，而二三线城市的压力更大。同时，新房价格的下行压力普遍大于二手房。这告诉我 们，当前市场的核心问题，是信心与预期的普遍偏弱，大家不是在挑好房子，而是在犹豫"要不要买房 子"。 那么，为什么在这个时候，我们反而要冷静下来，甚至看到一些积极信号呢？因为政策的方向已经发生 了根本性转变。大家回想一下，过去一两年的政策重心是什么？是"去杠杆、防风险"。而现在的政策重 心，已经非常清晰地转向了 "防风险、稳市场、促转型"。从金融支持房企合理融资的"三个不低于"， 到重点城市的优化限购，再到轰轰烈烈的"保交楼"行动，目标非常明确：就是要把市场从"自由落体"的 状态，拖入一个"软着陆 ...

房地产：2026 行业展望及投资策略更新 20251124 摘要 中国房地产市场自二季度降温，房价回落至 2024 年 9 月前水平，新房 交易量同比跌幅扩大，二手房交易量环比走弱，土地市场溢价率低于 5%。市场复苏需修复房价收入比偏高和库存过大问题，并结合宽松货币 政策。 在中性情景下，预计总住房交易量将进一步收窄至-5%左右，新开工面 积同比下降 16%，房地产投资同比跌幅约 15%。若政策定向解决周期 堵点，如存量住房收储、降息等，市场或迎来更积极发展。 当前房地产市场处于筑底阶段，人均一二手房交易套数已进入底部区间， 预计未来 1-2 年内仍有小幅下跌。城市改造在激发需求方面更具潜力， 但受土地市场流动性限制，效果存在不确定性。 头部主流房企股价相对于净清算价值折让幅度超过 40%，处于中偏深水 平。对 2026、2027 年房价假设为两位数幅度下滑，预期较为保守。预 计 2027 年开始利润反弹，具体斜率取决于 2026 年房价变化。 短期内对地产股走势保持审慎，明年二季度后宏观经济或有积极进展， 有望看到拐点并进行贝塔投资。2025 年商业地产表现良好，受益于同 店零售额增长和长期资本寻求高股息回 ...

Summary of China Merchants Shekou's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Shekou - **Date**: November 17, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Conditions - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, with core assets in first and second-tier cities showing strong demand and improvement in transaction volume [2][3][6] - Core city housing prices are stabilizing, particularly in Shanghai where multiple key land parcels have been acquired, supporting future sales [2][3] - The company is focusing on the top 10 core cities in China, gradually reducing its land acquisition scope [2][5] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q3, the company reported a cash balance of 85 billion yuan and a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.1 billion yuan [2][3] - Revenue and pre-tax gross margin increased in the first three quarters, but net profit attributable to shareholders slightly declined [2][3] - The company anticipates a potential decline in gross margin in Q4, but overall is in a bottoming process, with expectations for gradual recovery post-2026 [2][3][7] Sales and Project Development - From January to October, the company achieved a signed sales area of 5.64 million square meters and a sales amount of 156 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3][4] - New projects in Hangzhou have high sales rates, with many achieving over 90% sell-through on first launches [5] - Total available sales value as of the end of October is approximately 200 billion yuan, with strong land acquisition performance this year supporting future sales expectations [4][5] REITs and Asset Management - The company has issued REITs for industrial parks and rental housing, with plans to introduce consumer-oriented commercial real estate REITs [2][8] - The issuance of REITs is slow, impacting revenue minimally but significantly affecting profits [9][10] - The company is actively working on asset disposal and land exchange to improve cash flow and reduce non-core assets [11] Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - A three-year shareholder return plan has been established, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 40%, not less than 50%, regardless of performance fluctuations [4][12] Impairment and Valuation - The company expects some impairments this year due to market price pressures, but overall impairment pressure is manageable given its conservative net asset and debt levels [4][13] Future Outlook - The company believes that macroeconomic improvements will enhance supply-demand relationships in the real estate market, with expectations for policy support to stabilize the market [6][7] Strategic Focus - The company aims to lead the future direction of real estate development with a focus on quality housing, products, and services [6][7] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial health, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Banks are selling properties at discounted prices not due to urgency but as a strategy to improve loan recovery and efficiency in capital turnover [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank's Strategy - Banks are effectively selling loans secured by properties rather than the properties themselves, allowing them to recover more funds [1][5] - By selling properties at around 80% of their market value, banks can find new borrowers, thus securing additional profits beyond the principal amount [5][8] - This approach allows banks to bypass lengthy court auction processes, enhancing their capital turnover efficiency [2][3] Group 2: Market Impact - The influx of discounted properties may initially seem detrimental to property prices, but it could facilitate a quicker stabilization of the real estate market in the long run [8] - Accelerating the disposal of non-performing assets can improve banks' financial health and contribute to a more efficient market recovery [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. Market Changes - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2]. - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant portion of demand now being met through second-hand housing, while new housing is increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][6]. Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the sales of new residential properties have been on a continuous decline, with a notable policy shift in September 2024 aimed at stabilizing the market [3][6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [6][10]. Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching a peak share of 68% in July [6][10]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand housing prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a rise in new housing prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [11][13]. - The investment focus of real estate companies has shifted towards core cities, with significant land auction prices being recorded in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [14][16]. Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new housing market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities [17][21]. - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant increases in transactions for properties priced between 10 million to 20 million yuan in cities like Beijing and Chengdu [20][21]. Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan: Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [21][22].

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Shanghai concluded with a total revenue of 198.77 billion yuan, representing a 7.47% premium over the starting price of 184.95 billion yuan [1] Company Analysis - China Overseas Land & Investment (中海) actively participated in the auction for the 188N-1-21 plot in the core area of Xuhui Riverside, bidding 44.65 billion yuan, which corresponds to a floor price of 148,503 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for the area [4][5] - The company has faced challenges in Shanghai, with its total sales in the eastern region dropping from 267.2 billion yuan in the previous year to 137.78 billion yuan, nearly halving its sales and falling from first to seventh place in rankings [6] - As of mid-2023, China Overseas had only one active project in Shanghai, indicating a significant reduction in its market presence [6][8] Industry Trends - The real estate market in core cities like Beijing and Shanghai has shown resilience, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and a notable year-on-year increase of 5.6% in Shanghai [7] - The demand for high-quality properties in core urban areas remains strong, driven by the release of premium housing and the easing of purchase restrictions in peripheral areas [5] - Analysts predict that policy easing in the fourth quarter will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, while non-core areas and many smaller cities will need to rely on price reductions to clear inventory [5]