证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports have been consistently exceeding expectations due to the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, a result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Even after "anti - involution", China's price advantage is expected to last a long time because other countries' price increases are much faster than China's [6]. - There is no situation where exports will decline after the end of "rush - exports". The so - called "rush - exports" and "rush - imports" ended in April, but China's exports did not decline after that [5][6]. - The year - on - year decline in exports in October was mainly due to the base misalignment in September and October 2024. Trade frictions may have also affected the export rhythm in October. The key is to observe the high - frequency export data in November [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event Overview - According to the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, in US dollars, China's imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value +7.4%), decreased by 9.6% month - on - month (+8.5%); exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year (+8.3%), decreased by 7.1% month - on - month (+2.1%); the trade surplus decreased by 5.9% year - on - year (+10.6%), decreased by 0.4% month - on - month (-11.6%). Exports had their first year - on - year negative growth since March 2025 [3]. Possible Reasons for the First Negative Growth of Exports since March 2025 - **Base factor**: Exports have obvious seasonal patterns. In 2024, September and October's data deviated from the seasonal pattern, while in 2025, it conformed. As a result, the base in September 2025 was extremely low, and in October 2025, it was extremely high, leading to a high year - on - year export growth rate of 8.3% in September 2025 and a low rate of - 1.1% in October 2025 [3]. - **Tariff interference**: Fewer working days in October, combined with tightened manufacturing exports due to unclear Sino - US negotiation results and the threat of 100% tariffs in trade frictions, may have interfered with October's exports. High - frequency export data was weak in mid - October but rebounded significantly in late October. If the high - frequency data in November is similar to that in late October, subsequent exports will still be strong [4]. - **"Rush - exports end, exports will decline" is a false proposition**: The US "rush - imports" ended in April. Since then, US imports have dropped significantly to 2024 levels. However, China's exports have not declined since April, indicating that this narrative may be wrong [5]. Bond Market Viewpoint - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the report maintains its previous view [7].

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

Core Insights - In September, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to August, marking two consecutive months of growth exceeding 20% [1] - From January to September, profits grew by 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August of the previous year, and accelerated by 2.3 percentage points compared to the first eight months of the year [1] - The recovery in industrial profits is primarily driven by low base effects, unexpected production increases, and price recoveries [1][3] Profit Growth Analysis - In the first nine months, 23 out of 41 major industrial sectors saw profit growth, with 30 sectors experiencing growth in September, representing a growth rate of 73.2% [2] - The recovery is characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, improved profit margins, and proactive inventory replenishment [2] - Profit distribution has shifted towards upstream industries, with significant recovery in raw materials and equipment manufacturing, while downstream consumer manufacturing has seen a slowdown in profit growth [2] Company Size and Type Performance - Profits improved across all enterprise sizes, with private and foreign-invested enterprises showing notable acceleration [2] - Large, medium, and small enterprises saw year-on-year profit growth of 2.5%, 5.3%, and 2.7% respectively, with improvements of 2.6, 2.6, and 1.2 percentage points compared to the first eight months [2] - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises reported profit growth of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with increases of 1.8 and 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] Profit Margin and Revenue Trends - In September, the profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.46%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the revenue profit margin for the first nine months was 5.26%, up by 0.02 percentage points compared to the first eight months [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year increase from -2.9% to -2.3%, indicating a stabilization after previous declines [3] - The industrial added value growth rate rose to 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, reflecting accelerated production activities [3] Future Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates that industrial profits will continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic economic cycle [4] - The macro research team at Galaxy Securities suggests that if demand continues to improve, industrial profits are likely to maintain an upward trend, although external demand fluctuations and cost pressures may introduce uncertainties [4][5] - Key areas to monitor include the pace of domestic demand expansion policies and the impact of external demand and geopolitical risks on industrial profits [5]

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a notable rise in the growth rate compared to the previous month, driven by strong demand from non-U.S. economies, capacity relocation, and a low base effect from the previous year [4][7]. Export Data Summary - Exports amounted to $328.57 billion, up from $321.81 billion in the previous month, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, exceeding the expected 5.7% [7]. - Imports reached $238.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, surpassing the expected 1.4% [7]. - The trade surplus was recorded at $90.45 billion, down from $102.33 billion in the previous month [7]. Future Outlook - The outlook for exports remains positive due to sustained support from non-U.S. economies, with significant growth in exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa driven by consumer recovery and intermediate goods exports [4]. - The potential for "export rush" exists due to high uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly in light of recent statements regarding tariffs [4]. - However, the high year-on-year growth rate in exports starting from October 2024 may exert pressure on future monthly comparisons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the driving forces behind China's export growth, highlighting that exports to emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and the Middle East, are the main growth engines, while exports to non-US developed economies also provide moderate support [2][4][134]. Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall exports showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. Exports to emerging economies contributed 4.7 percentage points to this growth, while non-US developed countries contributed 1.4 percentage points [9][134]. - The export of electronic devices, machinery, and certain consumer goods (toys, mobile phones, jewelry) performed well during this period [12][134]. Group 2: Emerging Economies vs. Non-US Developed Economies - Exports to emerging economies improved mainly in intermediate goods, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 9.6%. Intermediate goods contributed 2.4 percentage points to the overall growth, while consumer goods negatively impacted growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][134]. - Exports to non-US developed economies saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.5 percentage points to 6.7%, primarily driven by consumer goods, which contributed 2.7 percentage points [28][134]. Group 3: Factors Behind Export Growth - The article suggests that approximately 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is due to changes in external demand and market share [4][68][136]. - The increase in US imports, which surged over 30%, is seen as a potential overestimation of "import grabbing," as the growth is largely driven by specific goods rather than a general trend [4][40][136]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a balance point with demand, indicating room for further increases [76][81]. - Short-term impacts from tariffs on exports to ASEAN countries may lead to a temporary decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in emerging economies [90][94][120].

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant downturn in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August to 5.3%[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year's 17.1%[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly fading, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year[56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains under pressure, and the main influencing factor is the continuous strength of the equity market. The outlook for the bond market depends on the liquidity situation and the performance of the equity market [15][20]. - In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on domestic and external demand cannot be underestimated. The low fundamental data implies a low return on the real economy, and bond - type assets also have difficulty providing higher comprehensive returns, so the sensitivity of bonds to fundamentals has decreased [19]. - Regarding policies, fiscal policy continues to exert force, with the next - stage focus on strengthening the domestic cycle. Monetary policy is expected to implement existing policies, and there is an increased expectation that the central bank will restart buying treasury bonds [19][20]. - For the capital side, the central bank may start to conduct 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in mid - September, and attention should be paid to the cross - quarter capital trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - **Import and Export Data**: In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports declined, with a significant drop in exports to the United States, while exports to non - US regions remained strong. In the future, exports may face the impact of demand overdraft from "rush exports" and the cancellation of the small - parcel tariff exemption. However, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the import demand of non - US regions may be boosted [2][8]. - **Inflation Data**: In August 2025, "anti - involution" had a positive impact on the year - on - year and month - on - month readings of PPI. The supply - demand relationship of some energy and raw material industries improved, and prices in industries such as coal processing, ferrous metal processing, and glass manufacturing turned from falling to rising. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will continue to rise from a low level, and the month - on - month rate is expected to turn positive [2][9]. 3.2 Capital Prices - From September 5th to September 11th, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds in the open market, resulting in a marginal tightening of the capital side. The capital price rose slightly, with DR007 rising from below 1.45% to around 1.48%. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to rise, which restricted the bullish sentiment in the bond market [11]. 3.3 Primary Market - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is nearing completion. During the statistical period, 74 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 632.5 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 45.2 billion yuan. As of September 11th, 1.1 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been issued in 2025, and the supply pressure is gradually decreasing [13]. 3.4 Secondary Market - During the statistical period, the bond market was continuously under pressure, and the yield curve of treasury bonds steepened and rose. The continuous strength of the equity market was the main influencing factor. Additionally, the adjustment of fund redemption fees also had a certain impact on the market [15]. 3.5 Market Outlook - First, pay attention to the capital situation. If the capital side tightens, be vigilant about the downward risk of the bond market. If the capital side is relatively loose, then further monitor the changes in the equity market. If the sentiment in the equity market cools down, the bond market may experience a phased improvement, but do not overestimate the downward space of interest rates. If the equity market remains strong, the bond market may continue to fluctuate negatively [20].