FICC日报 | 2026-01-06 2026 A股开门红，地缘扰动下贵金属走强 策略 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内卷式" 竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振消费， 以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。随着国内系列重要会 议的召开，以及美联储12月宣布重回"限制性"立场，后续内外的政策预期存在回摆的风险，资产情绪和宏观有所 背离。后续：一、关注国内具体政策出台情况；二、特朗普宣布的美联储主席候选人。此外，元旦假期期间，地 缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下，未来全球局势动荡仍将是常态，商品的供给端风险以及宽松货 币政策仍将是商品价格持续走高的决定性因素。1月5日，市场全天震荡走强，沪指重返4000点上方，创业板指涨 近3%。中证A500指数涨逾2%，创2022年1月以来新高。 内外景气存在一定分化。10月以来，海外景气度持续回落，但对应中国的出口和景气的新订单仍偏积极，关注是 否存在"抢出口"的扰动及持续性情况。数 ...

淡季逆势回升，结构仍趋分化 12 月 PMI 点评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 此外，墨西哥本轮关税调整也可能催生新一轮"抢出口"。2025 年 11 月墨西哥曾 宣布推迟对华加征关税，但同年 12 月 11 日突然改口，将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日起对 部分亚洲国家征收关税，涉及纺织等行业。这一政策变动或推动本期纺织品等行业 等开始对墨"抢出口"，这一推测可从两方面得到侧面印证：其一，消费品行业供 应链尤其拥堵。本期中采数据显示，纺织服装业、电子设备制造业（含消费电子） 供应商配送时间大幅下降（供应商配送时间总指数反而上升），反映出个别行业供 应链拥堵，订单生产任务紧迫；其二，企业规模差异导致"抢出口"能力分化，进 而影响 PMI 回升结构。本期 PMI 回升的行业分布与企业规模不完全匹配：一方面 消费品出口订单回升，但小企业PMI反而下滑；另一方面大型企业PMI显著回升， 但原材料行业 PMI 升幅却有限。我们认为，这一结构错配或与企业短期"抢生产" 和"抢出口"能力相关——我们在《如何看待今年的"抢出口"现象？》中曾指 出，企业规模越大，"抢出口"的速度越快，这一结论与本期数据的变化特征相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports have been consistently exceeding expectations due to the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, a result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Even after "anti - involution", China's price advantage is expected to last a long time because other countries' price increases are much faster than China's [6]. - There is no situation where exports will decline after the end of "rush - exports". The so - called "rush - exports" and "rush - imports" ended in April, but China's exports did not decline after that [5][6]. - The year - on - year decline in exports in October was mainly due to the base misalignment in September and October 2024. Trade frictions may have also affected the export rhythm in October. The key is to observe the high - frequency export data in November [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event Overview - According to the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, in US dollars, China's imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value +7.4%), decreased by 9.6% month - on - month (+8.5%); exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year (+8.3%), decreased by 7.1% month - on - month (+2.1%); the trade surplus decreased by 5.9% year - on - year (+10.6%), decreased by 0.4% month - on - month (-11.6%). Exports had their first year - on - year negative growth since March 2025 [3]. Possible Reasons for the First Negative Growth of Exports since March 2025 - **Base factor**: Exports have obvious seasonal patterns. In 2024, September and October's data deviated from the seasonal pattern, while in 2025, it conformed. As a result, the base in September 2025 was extremely low, and in October 2025, it was extremely high, leading to a high year - on - year export growth rate of 8.3% in September 2025 and a low rate of - 1.1% in October 2025 [3]. - **Tariff interference**: Fewer working days in October, combined with tightened manufacturing exports due to unclear Sino - US negotiation results and the threat of 100% tariffs in trade frictions, may have interfered with October's exports. High - frequency export data was weak in mid - October but rebounded significantly in late October. If the high - frequency data in November is similar to that in late October, subsequent exports will still be strong [4]. - **"Rush - exports end, exports will decline" is a false proposition**: The US "rush - imports" ended in April. Since then, US imports have dropped significantly to 2024 levels. However, China's exports have not declined since April, indicating that this narrative may be wrong [5]. Bond Market Viewpoint - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the report maintains its previous view [7].

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

Core Insights - In September, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to August, marking two consecutive months of growth exceeding 20% [1] - From January to September, profits grew by 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August of the previous year, and accelerated by 2.3 percentage points compared to the first eight months of the year [1] - The recovery in industrial profits is primarily driven by low base effects, unexpected production increases, and price recoveries [1][3] Profit Growth Analysis - In the first nine months, 23 out of 41 major industrial sectors saw profit growth, with 30 sectors experiencing growth in September, representing a growth rate of 73.2% [2] - The recovery is characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, improved profit margins, and proactive inventory replenishment [2] - Profit distribution has shifted towards upstream industries, with significant recovery in raw materials and equipment manufacturing, while downstream consumer manufacturing has seen a slowdown in profit growth [2] Company Size and Type Performance - Profits improved across all enterprise sizes, with private and foreign-invested enterprises showing notable acceleration [2] - Large, medium, and small enterprises saw year-on-year profit growth of 2.5%, 5.3%, and 2.7% respectively, with improvements of 2.6, 2.6, and 1.2 percentage points compared to the first eight months [2] - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises reported profit growth of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with increases of 1.8 and 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] Profit Margin and Revenue Trends - In September, the profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.46%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the revenue profit margin for the first nine months was 5.26%, up by 0.02 percentage points compared to the first eight months [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year increase from -2.9% to -2.3%, indicating a stabilization after previous declines [3] - The industrial added value growth rate rose to 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, reflecting accelerated production activities [3] Future Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates that industrial profits will continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic economic cycle [4] - The macro research team at Galaxy Securities suggests that if demand continues to improve, industrial profits are likely to maintain an upward trend, although external demand fluctuations and cost pressures may introduce uncertainties [4][5] - Key areas to monitor include the pace of domestic demand expansion policies and the impact of external demand and geopolitical risks on industrial profits [5]

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a notable rise in the growth rate compared to the previous month, driven by strong demand from non-U.S. economies, capacity relocation, and a low base effect from the previous year [4][7]. Export Data Summary - Exports amounted to $328.57 billion, up from $321.81 billion in the previous month, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, exceeding the expected 5.7% [7]. - Imports reached $238.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, surpassing the expected 1.4% [7]. - The trade surplus was recorded at $90.45 billion, down from $102.33 billion in the previous month [7]. Future Outlook - The outlook for exports remains positive due to sustained support from non-U.S. economies, with significant growth in exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa driven by consumer recovery and intermediate goods exports [4]. - The potential for "export rush" exists due to high uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly in light of recent statements regarding tariffs [4]. - However, the high year-on-year growth rate in exports starting from October 2024 may exert pressure on future monthly comparisons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the driving forces behind China's export growth, highlighting that exports to emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and the Middle East, are the main growth engines, while exports to non-US developed economies also provide moderate support [2][4][134]. Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall exports showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. Exports to emerging economies contributed 4.7 percentage points to this growth, while non-US developed countries contributed 1.4 percentage points [9][134]. - The export of electronic devices, machinery, and certain consumer goods (toys, mobile phones, jewelry) performed well during this period [12][134]. Group 2: Emerging Economies vs. Non-US Developed Economies - Exports to emerging economies improved mainly in intermediate goods, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 9.6%. Intermediate goods contributed 2.4 percentage points to the overall growth, while consumer goods negatively impacted growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][134]. - Exports to non-US developed economies saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.5 percentage points to 6.7%, primarily driven by consumer goods, which contributed 2.7 percentage points [28][134]. Group 3: Factors Behind Export Growth - The article suggests that approximately 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is due to changes in external demand and market share [4][68][136]. - The increase in US imports, which surged over 30%, is seen as a potential overestimation of "import grabbing," as the growth is largely driven by specific goods rather than a general trend [4][40][136]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a balance point with demand, indicating room for further increases [76][81]. - Short-term impacts from tariffs on exports to ASEAN countries may lead to a temporary decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in emerging economies [90][94][120].

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant downturn in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August to 5.3%[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year's 17.1%[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]