投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | 2025/11/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | 1495 | 1058 | 2212 | 1208 | 2848 | 1323 | | (三三 Alle | | | | | | | | | | 前値 | 1551 | 1021 | 2647 | 1107 | 3438 | 1344 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.59% | 3.60% | -16.43% | 9.12% | -17.16% | -1.56% | | 情 | | SCFIS ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term Outlook**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the overall improvement in the fundamentals of the black - series is limited, with the main contracts of the black - series fluctuating at low levels. The real - estate data remains weak, glass enterprises' inventories have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the oversupply situation in the soda ash market persists, with both maintaining a weak pattern [67][71] - **Short - term Outlook**: This week, due to the political turmoil in Mongolia affecting coking coal supply, coking coal and coke prices soared, boosting the sentiment of the black - series. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, but the steel price is under pressure. The daily average hot - metal output has fallen below 2.4 million tons, and iron ore prices are fluctuating at low levels. Glass and soda ash continue to operate at low levels, and attention should be paid to the market reaction and fundamental improvement after the important meeting [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3037.0 on October 17 to 3046.0 on October 24, an increase of 9.0 (0.3%). The spot price was 3046.0, and the basis was 0 [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3204.0 to 3250.0, an increase of 46.0 (1.4%). The spot price was 3290.0, and the basis was 40.0 [3] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract remained at 771.0. The spot price was 797.0, and the basis was 26.0 [3] - **Coke (J2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1676.0 to 1757.5, an increase of 81.5 (4.9%). The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 137.5 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1179.0 to 1248.5, an increase of 69.5 (5.9%). The spot price was 1420.0, and the basis was 171.5 [3] - **Glass (FG601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell from 1095.0 to 1092.0, a decrease of 3.0 (- 0.3%). The spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 148.0 [3] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1209.0 to 1229.0, an increase of 20.0 (1.7%). The spot price was 1270.6, and the basis was 41.6 [3] 3.2 Rebar Blast Furnace Profit - On October 23, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Rebar Supply - As of October 24, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons; the rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons [13] 3.4 Rebar Demand - In the week of October 24, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,600 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 105,323 tons [18] 3.5 Rebar Inventory - In the week of October 24, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3748 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 189,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [22] 3.6 Iron Ore Supply - In the week of October 17, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons [27] 3.7 Iron Ore Inventory - In the week of October 24, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9646 million tons [32] 3.8 Iron Ore Demand - In the week of October 24, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,500 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 959,000 tons [37] 3.9 Float Glass Supply - In the week of October 24, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, and the operating rate was 76.35%, both remaining unchanged from the previous week [42] 3.10 Float Glass Inventory - In the week of October 24, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million weight boxes compared with October 17. The available days of in - plant inventory were 28.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [47] 3.11 Float Glass Demand - As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [51] 3.12 Soda Ash Supply - In the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740,600 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous week [55] 3.13 Soda Ash Inventory - As of October 24, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [60] 3.14 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - As of October 24, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [3]. - The spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, CY IndexC32S, Cot A, etc. [3]. - The price differences between different contracts and varieties are shown, including cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In 2025, China's cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The expected total output is 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. Xinjiang's output is 6.972 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [6]. - As of September 30, 2025, the national cotton picking progress is 5.1%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the delivery progress is 1.8%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the average purchase price of cottonseed by cotton farmers is 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [6]. - The spot price of new cotton in inland warehouses for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable. The sales basis of a large number of 2025/26 Aksu hand - picked 3130/30B/less than 1.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1800 for inland self - pick - up [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton enters the acquisition stage, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale scramble for acquisition. The expected selling hedging pressure on the futures market will increase as new cotton is massively listed. The peak season demand in the market is average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is limited [7]. Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range - bound pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by positive domestic macro - policy signals and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, Zhengzhou cotton has slightly recovered in a volatile manner. The price of pure cotton yarn is generally stable, with some manufacturers offering price promotions. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and the inventory of spinning mills has increased. The impact of the implementation of favorable policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations on downstream demand needs to be further monitored [8]. - The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market is light, with stable quotations. Most weaving factories still report that orders in October are discontinuous, and they remain cautious about the future. Both finished product inventory and raw material inventory are maintained according to the September strategy. There is no improvement in export orders [10]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively. The 120 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.4519, slightly lower than the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7661, and the volume PCR is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [12]. - The options strategy is to wait and see [8][13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, and the price difference between CY01 and CF01 [14][15][16]

国信证券发布研报称，2025年下半年煤价反弹后，煤企利润有望改善且四季度煤价具备向上弹性，叠加 本轮市场转好后，煤炭板块表现明显弱于其他板块，且底部明确，看好板块四季度反弹。节后煤价迅速 止跌并反弹，反映供应收紧预期持续增强，抬高煤价底部，旺季需求释放或打开煤价上行空间。 大同证券指出，动力煤方面，双节期间及节后，雨天不断，煤炭供给受到影响，大秦铁路检修、终端开 启冬储和非电煤旺季推进，短期看，预计共同支撑煤价走强。炼焦煤方面，下游铁水产量仍维持高位， 焦企再次提涨的信心不足，多持观望态度，叠加10月仍是需求旺季，煤焦钢总库存位于较低位置，对煤 价仍有支撑，短期看，焦煤将延续震荡走势。 煤炭股多数上涨，截至发稿，Mongol Mining(00975)涨10.03%，报13.6港元；首钢资源(00639)涨 5.28%，报2.99港元；中国秦发(00866)涨4.47%，报3.04港元；兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨1.96%，报28.04港 元；中煤能源(01898)涨1.8%，报10.2港元。 ...

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Mongol Mining up 10.03% to HKD 13.6, Shougang Resources up 5.28% to HKD 2.99, and China Qinfa up 4.47% to HKD 3.04 [1] - Guosen Securities reports that coal prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, improving coal company profits, with the fourth quarter showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply expectations [1] - After the holiday, coal prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded, indicating a sustained expectation of supply tightening, which raises the price floor for coal [1] Group 2 - Datong Securities notes that during the holiday period and after, continuous rain has affected coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the start of winter storage supporting short-term coal price strength [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but coking enterprises are hesitant to raise prices, leading to a cautious outlook, while October remains a peak demand season [1] - The total inventory of coal, coke, and steel is at a low level, providing support for coal prices, with coking coal expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-26 政策仍有预期，基本⾯延续季节性改善 继周内《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台后，中国炼焦⾏业协会市场委员 会的会议再度引发市场"反内卷"情绪提升，⽇盘板块多数品种呈现 先抑后扬⾛势，但从⽇内涨跌幅来看，焦炭相对偏强，夜盘时段，虽 然以煤焦为代表，价格⼩幅回落，但炉料需求所对应的铁⽔产出继续 表现强劲，进⽽预计板块品种价格下⾏空间有限。 3、合金方面，旺季期间下游采购需求预期对锰硅价格仍存支撑，但 后市市场供需预期较为悲观、旺季过后锰硅价格中枢仍存下行空间， 关注原料成本的下调幅度。旺季预期及成本坚挺支撑硅铁价格表现， 但硅铁供需关系趋向宽松、旺季过后价格仍存下行压力。 4、玻璃现实需求偏弱，但旺季以及政策预期存在、《建材行业稳增 长方案》出台加强政策预期，中游去库后可能仍有一波震荡反复。中 长期来看仍旧需要市场化去产能，若价格重回基本面交易，则预计震 荡下行。纯碱供给过剩格局没有改变，预计后续跟随宏观变动宽幅震 荡运行。长期来看价格中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，随着旺季深入，产业链各环节、尤其是中上游环节依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper supply, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long - term. Short - term prices are driven up by mine disruptions, with support at 81000 - 81500 [2]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation, with the short - term price range of the main contract expected to be 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - The supply side of tin is strong, supporting the tin price to continue the high - level shock, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [12]. Nickel - The nickel market has a weak macro - atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has firm raw material prices and cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and organize, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45%. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24%; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina prices in various regions are all slightly down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions are all down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60%; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88%; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71%; the refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32200 tons, up 1.26%; the import volume is 17536 tons, down 8.46% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83%; the import volume is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55%; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].