农产品早报 2025-10-10 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅下跌，美国农业部报告因政府停摆而推迟发布，市场暂时缺乏方向。周四国内豆粕 期货稳定，现货小幅上涨 10-20 元/吨，华东报 2900 元/吨左右，豆粕成交较好，提货一般。MYSTEEL 预估 10 月 4 号-10 号期间，国内油厂大豆压榨量为 135.7 万吨。 杨泽元 咨询机构 AgRural 周一表示，截至 10 月 2 日，2025/26 年度巴西大豆播种进度达到全国总播种面积的 9%， 高于一周前的 3.2%，也高于去年同期的 4%。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易关系 及巴西种植季节交易的支撑， ...

油脂异动点评：MPOB 报告或显示 9 月马来西亚棕 榈油库存回落，盘面于节后补涨 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 王泽辉（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019938） 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 电话：020-88818064 邮箱：wangzehui@gf.com.cn 行情导读：国庆节后首日，棕榈油盘面迎来大涨，截至收盘，棕榈油 P2601 合约涨幅达到 4.13%，收 9570 点，盘中一度窜高至 9580 点。 驱动分析一：基本面呈现供降需增局面，9 月产地库存或出现拐点 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）将于 10 月 10 日公布官方月度报告。一项行业调查显示，马来西亚 9 月棕榈油库存将出现 2 月份以来首次下滑，因为出口增长而产量下滑。其中产量预计为 179.4 万吨， 环比下降 3.3%，出口量预计为 142.7 万吨，环比增长 7.7%，库存将降至 214.6 万吨，环比下降 2.5%。 马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)称，2025 年 9 月马来西亚棕榈油产量预估为 181 万吨，环比下降 2.35%， 其中马来西亚半岛的产量环比下降 6.17%，沙巴的产量环比增加 2. ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：B50 路测提前，维持低多及区间操作 豆油：美豆假期反弹，豆油跟随油脂高开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,546 | 1.65% | 4,560 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.29 | 0.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——阿根廷结束低价竞争，油脂未来依然有供应缩紧预期 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 美国生物柴油政策不明，市场等待美国最终政策敲定。 棕榈油方面，马来西亚9月提前进入减产季，印尼天气产量正常增产，B40计划预计年底有赶进度的可 能，支持产地报价。 豆油方面巴西大豆播种进度较快，同比高于去年同期，全球大豆供应依然宽松，中美贸易前景不确定， 但上周阿根廷大豆的购买可以弥补部分美豆缺口，国内豆油供应紧张兑现时间后移。 菜油方面，加拿大新季产量乐观，中加关系是市场关注的最热焦点，与大豆不同的是，菜油供应仍有其 它渠道可以补充，加上澳菜籽进口窗口或打开，有望弥补部分加菜籽缺口，但考虑到澳籽产量，想要完全替 代加菜籽供应的可能性有限，菜油供应紧张的预期较强。 综上，我们认为油脂国内驱动不足，未来空间依靠产地利好驱动发力，短期盘面整理运行。关注中美、 中加关系和棕榈油产地去库进度及B40计划进程。策略上可关注菜籽油15正套、棕榈油01逢低做多的机会。 马来西亚棕榈油精炼ol ...

农产品早报 2025-09-30 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 1、据马来西亚独立检验机构，马来西亚 9 月 1-10 日棕榈油出口下降 1.2%-8.43%，前 15 日环增 2.6%, 前 20 日环增 8.7%，前 25 日环增 11.3%-12.9%。SPPOMA 数据显示，2025 年 9 月 1-10 日马来西亚棕榈 油产量环比上月同期减少 3.17%，前 15 日产量环比减少 8.05%，前 20 日减少 7.89%，前 25 日减少 4.14%。 2、据外媒报道，预计未来几个月马来西亚棕榈油库存将下降，到年底库存将达到 170 万公吨左右，原 因是季节性产量放缓，而出口量增加以满足节日需求。马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB） ...

国信期货油脂油料季报 政策不确定加剧 期待四季度季节性行情 油脂油料 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 9 月 28 日 蛋白粕方面，国际大豆方面，四季度美豆面临单产和出口的双重影响。单产 下调是大概率事件，下调幅度存在不确定性。影响市场最大的因素在于美豆出口 方面，11月中美经贸会谈成为关键。CBOT大豆底部宽幅震荡延续，950-1150美分/ 蒲式耳或将维持。南美大豆出口与播种进度或将对四季度国际大豆市场产生冲击 ，市场波动的在于巴西升贴水。四季度南美大豆迎来播种期，拉尼娜出现的可能 性增加，这让天气扰动增强，警惕出现南旱北涝的局面。尽管四季度国内大豆到 港量逐步减少，但随着供给的有效补充，前期供给担忧或将减弱。从需求来看， 由于国内生猪存栏去化缓慢，国内豆粕需求稳中有增。豆粕库存拐点尚未到来， 去库存或将在11月开启。豆粕现货基差或低位回升。从成本来看，受累于阿根廷 大豆及豆粕成本的拖累，连粕1月合约波动区间或在2850-3200元/吨之间。国内豆 粕的走势或因中美经贸谈判而震荡反复。成本驱动加强。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116号 分析师：曹彦辉 从业资格号：F0247 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 市场购销转好，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2967元/吨，较前日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.26%；菜粕2601合约2444元/吨，较前 日变动+49元/吨，幅度+2.05%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+3， 较前日变动-27；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-77，较前日变动-27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-67，较前日变动-27。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM01+156，较前日变动-19。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年9月巴西大豆出口量715万吨，低于一周前预估的753万 吨，但高于去年同期的516万吨；2025年1-9月巴西大豆出口量将达到9525万吨，去年同期为8905万吨。预计10-12 月巴西大豆出口量约1600万吨。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号， ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东转三级菜油：现货：OI2601+250，10-11 月：OI2601+260。华东转 ...

Report Information - Reported Industry: Fats and Oils [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China converted third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 250, from October to November it's OI2601 + 260. East China converted first - grade rapeseed oil: In October it's OI2601 + 360, from November to December it's OI2601 + 380. - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: From December to January it's 01+220, from December to February it's 01+240, from January to March it's 01+200, from April to July it's 05+250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable: 18 - degree is 01+140 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree is 01+120 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse), 28 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] Core Viewpoints - The Argentine government temporarily cancelled tariffs on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion. The fats and oils market rebounded after a sharp decline. Argentina may increase soybean exports to China by 2 - 4 million tons after the tax cut, advancing supply. Domestic fats and oils supply is sufficient this year, but there may be a temporary shortage in Q1 next year. - Near - term rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, with concentrated supply. Traders are holding prices, and the basis quote is rising. Monitor China - Canada trade and rapeseed supply. - For the 01 contract, it has both upside pressure and downside support, so expect range - bound trading. For the 05 contract, consider low - buying and rolling long positions. In the long - term, fats and oils are bullish due to biodiesel policies. Monitor China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] 2. Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 6.57% and OER down 0.25% month - on - month. - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than 40,800 tons in the same period last month. - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease from August 1 - 20 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [11][13][14][21][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].