Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is in a state of rebound and shock, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report. The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were mixed on March 30, 2026, with cautious trading as investors adjusted their positions ahead of two key USDA reports [1][3]. - Due to the expected strong growth in biofuel demand and the increase in fertilizer costs caused by the war, it is likely to prompt US farmers to expand soybean planting area and reduce corn planting area this spring. Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 85.55 million acres, significantly higher than last year's 81.215 million acres [3]. - As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress has reached 75%, and the agency expects Brazil's soybean production this year to reach 178.4 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous estimate [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean No. 1 2605 closed at 4,574 yuan/ton during the day session, down 6 yuan (-0.13%), and 4,611 yuan/ton during the night session, up 44 yuan (+0.96%); DCE Soybean Meal 2605 closed at 2,937 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.14%), and 2,921 yuan/ton during the night session, down 16 yuan (-0.54%); CBOT Soybean 05 closed at 1,158.75 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents (-0.06%); CBOT Soybean Meal 05 closed at 314.6 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars (-0.13%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 3,200 - 3,240 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different delivery times; in East China, the price and basis also varied by delivery time; in South China, the price was 3,220 - 3,340 yuan/ton, with corresponding basis levels [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 84,900 tons/day, and the previous two - day trading volume was 27,500 tons/day. The inventory was not available for the previous day, and the previous two - week inventory was 641,800 tons [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 30, 2026, CBOT soybean futures were narrowly fluctuating, and the market was waiting for the planting intention report. The market was cautious, and investors adjusted their positions ahead of the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report [1][3]. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 85.55 million acres, and the soybean inventory on March 1 to be 2.067 billion bushels, higher than the same period last year [3]. - As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, and the expected production was 178.4 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous estimate [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and Bean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral state for the main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: The Canola oil futures continued to rise this week. The 05 contract closed at 9,821 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's canola planting area is expected to increase by 1% in 2026, but the production is expected to decrease. The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has pushed up international oil prices and the demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian canola has been settled, which may increase the import volume and add supply pressure in the long - term, but the market has already priced it in. The canola oil futures prices are in high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term volatility [7]. - **Canola Meal**: The canola meal futures rose significantly this week. The 05 contract closed at 2,591 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton from last week. The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations, and the soaring crude oil price due to the geopolitical situation has boosted the US soybean market. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian canola meal and the reduction of canola tariffs will increase the supply in the long - term. Currently, it is the off - season for aquaculture, and the demand for canola meal is mainly rigid. The market has already reacted to the policy adjustments in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The canola meal futures continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: This week, the canola oil futures closed higher. The 05 contract closed at 9,821 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from last week. The planting area and production of Canadian canola have certain changes, and the geopolitical conflict has affected the market. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian canola may increase long - term supply, but the market impact is limited. The futures prices are in high - level oscillation [7]. - **Canola Meal**: The canola meal futures rose significantly this week. The 05 contract closed at 2,591 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton from last week. The geopolitical situation and policy adjustments may increase long - term supply, but the market has already priced it in. The short - term fluctuations are large [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, the canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 244,392 lots, down 47,997 lots from last week. The canola meal futures rose significantly, with a total position of 600,522 lots, down 253,968 lots from last week [14]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 14,280, compared with - 5,937 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 100,227, compared with - 172,981 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 1,125 lots, and those of canola meal were 2,311 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,540 yuan/ton, showing a recovery. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 719 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,720 yuan/ton, with an obvious recovery. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was + 129 yuan/ton [33][39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 118 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was + 119 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil and meal was 3.79, and the average spot price ratio was 3.7 [48]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,131 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 53 yuan/ton, with an obvious contraction this week [57]. - **Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 537 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 620 yuan/ton [64]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 171,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from last week. The estimated import volumes of rapeseed in March, April, and May 2026 were 160,000 tons, 230,000 tons, and 200,000 tons respectively [68]. - **Supply - Side: Imported Pressing Profit**: As of March 12, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 436 yuan/ton [72]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 10th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 24,500 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 5.94% [76]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [80]. 3.3.2 Canola Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Changes**: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 290,800 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. In December 2025, the total import volume of canola oil was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [84]. - **Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,400 tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 573.8 billion yuan [88]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Changes**: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 136,900 tons, an increase of 77,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 128.74% [92]. 3.3.3 Canola Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Changes**: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 15,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 130.77% [96]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume Changes**: In December 2025, the total import volume of canola meal was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [100]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Production Comparison**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [104]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility of canola meal options was 33.92% as of March 13, up 11.68% from last week's 22.24%, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the domestic soybean complex has seen increased volatility. The prices of soybean and soybean meal futures have reached new highs, and spot prices have also risen. The report expects the soybean No. 1 to trend strongly, and soybean meal to have a strong rebound, but suggests cautious chasing of rising prices and mainly adopting a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main 2605 contract reached a high of 4941 and then declined, approaching the 5000-point mark and hitting a nearly 2-year high. The spot price in Fujin rose from 4560 yuan/ton to around 4700 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, with the futures premium turning to discount and then back to premium [3]. - The soybean meal main 2605 contract hit a daily limit and then declined, reaching a high of 3066 and setting a phased high. The spot price in Zhangjiagang rose from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3220 yuan/ton. The basis first weakened and then strengthened, and the futures discount first decreased and then increased [3]. Supply Side - Domestic soybean sales have slowed down, and there is currently no state reserve soybean auction. As of March 6, the remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 35% (a 4% month-on-month decrease), in Anhui to 45% (a 5% decrease), in Henan to 44% (a 5% decrease), and in Shandong to 45% (a 5% decrease). The remaining grain ratio nationwide is higher than the same period last year [3]. - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, and port soybean inventories have slightly decreased. As of March 6, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase, and port soybean inventories were 5.794 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. There is a possibility of continued purchases of US soybeans during the potential visit at the end of March and beginning of April, but currently, due to the high cost of US soybeans and the upcoming South American soybean harvest, the market may prefer to buy South American soybeans [4]. - US soybeans reached a significant high and then declined. Boosted by the US-Iran conflict, the rise in crude oil prices stimulated the demand for biofuels, and the sharp rise in US soybean oil prices supported US soybeans. Additionally, the increase in fertilizer prices raised planting costs. However, as the conflict sentiment weakened, US soybeans declined. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybean crops should be noted, with the previous US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicting 85 million acres (a 4.7% year-on-year increase) [4]. Demand Side - The operating rate of oil mills has rapidly recovered, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As of March 6, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.47%, a significant month-on-month increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.727 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. The soybean meal output was 1.448 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 761,000 tons, a month-on-month increase; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.306 million tons, a significant month-on-month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.14 days, a month-on-month decrease [4][5]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, but long-term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the livestock sector, pig prices have continued to decline, leading to overall losses in pig farming, with severe losses in some areas. As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -58.9 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -237.9 yuan per head, a severe loss. The industry has held another meeting to emphasize capacity regulation. The inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms slightly decreased in February, the number of sows culled increased slightly month-on-month, the output of piglets increased month-on-month, but sales decreased, and the inventory of commercial pigs stopped decreasing and started to increase again. In the poultry sector, egg prices have declined, increasing losses in poultry farming. The sales volume of chicken chicks still increased in February, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in production may have increased in February. Currently, the high inventory of livestock and poultry still supports feed demand, but capacity may continue to be reduced due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long-term growth of feed demand [5]. Market Outlook - At high prices, the sales of domestic soybeans have slowed down, and the remaining grain has continued to decrease. The market price remains relatively strong, and the soybean No. 1 is expected to trend strongly [5]. - The arrival of domestic soybeans has increased; there is currently no auction; the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. The rebound of soybean meal is relatively strong. Due to the dominance of the US-Iran conflict sentiment, the volatility has increased. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing rising prices and mainly adopt a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures price is strong [1] - On February 26, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.2%. This was mainly due to long - position profit - taking and weak export sales. The soybean price once reached the highest level since mid - June 2024 but then fell back [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4702 yuan/ton during the day session, up 28 yuan (+0.60%), and 4720 yuan at night, up 28 yuan (+0.60%) - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2834 yuan/ton during the day session, up 10 yuan (+0.35%), and 2830 yuan at night, down 3 yuan (-0.11%) - CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1163 cents/bushel, down 2.25 cents (-0.19%) - CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 321.3 dollars/short ton, down 0.5 dollars (-0.16%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 3120 - 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan to flat compared with the previous day. The spot basis was M2605 + 380, flat - In East China, the price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan compared with the previous day. Nanjing Bangji's price for August - September was M2609 + 0 - In South China, the price of soybean meal in Dongguan Jiajie for March was M2605 + 300, and for April was M2605 + 180. In Zhanjiang Zhongfang, the price for February - March was M2605 + 300 - In the Northeast, the net purchase price of soybeans in Harbin (Wuchang, Shangzhi, Binxian, Bayan) was 4480 yuan/ton [1] Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 3.65 million tons per day, compared with 7.9 million tons two days ago - The inventory of soybean meal was 80.89 million tons in the week of February 20, compared with 88.16 million tons in the week of February 6 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 26, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The benchmark contract was down 0.2% due to long - position profit - taking and weak export sales. The price once reached the highest level since mid - June 2024 but then fell back - The US government plans to re - allocate half of the biofuel blending obligations of small refineries to large refineries, which supports the market - As of the week of February 19, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 407,100 tons, a 49% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the reporting day [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience short-term volatility, with reference ranges for canola oil at 8700-9200 and canola meal at 2100-2300. The focus for February is on the processing of Australian canola before the Lunar New Year and the potential opening of commercial canola shipments to China afterward. Overall, the supply of canola oil and meal is likely to trend towards a marginally looser situation, making significant rebounds unlikely [2][44]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary focus in February will be on the processing situation of Australian canola and the timing of commercial shipments to China [2][44]. - The supply of canola oil and meal is expected to trend towards a marginally looser situation, making significant rebounds unlikely [2][44]. - Canola oil may benefit from demand for biofuels, providing some support, but the price differentials among oilseed varieties remain relatively weak [2][44]. Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - There is a tendency to buy canola oil and meal on dips, especially considering the potential for the internationalization of Chinese canola oil and meal after easing trade tensions [3][41]. - International canola supply pressures are gradually being released, with a focus on the divergence in the trends of international canola oil and meal [3][41]. - Canola oil is expected to receive support from policy-driven demand in the U.S. and EU, while canola meal faces structural oversupply pressures [3][41]. Group 3: Import and Export Expectations - Recent negotiations between China and Canada have signaled a potential easing of trade tensions, which may lead to a recovery in Canadian canola exports to China [6][45]. - The AAFC report projects a target of 8.2 million tons for Canadian canola exports in the 2025/26 season, but current cumulative exports are only around 3 million tons, approximately 60% of last year's figures [57]. - The first shipment of Australian canola is expected to be processed by the end of January, with the second shipment potentially delayed until after the New Year [59][60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On December 11, the futures prices of beans and oils rose first and then fell. The price of soybean No.1 futures increased by over 1%, and the price rebounded above multiple moving - averages with an increase of 7,000 lots in positions. The price of soybean No.2 futures rose by over 2%, continuing the previous day's rebound trend with little change in funds. The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, and funds continued to shift to the far - month 05 contract with a slight outflow of funds. The price of rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, showing a weak overall pattern with an increase of 11,000 lots in positions. The price of oil futures rose and then fell. The price of soybean oil futures was pressured by the 10 - day moving average with an increase of 25,000 lots in positions. The price of palm oil futures fluctuated strongly, pressured by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed below the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 24,000 lots in positions. The price of rapeseed oil futures increased by over 1.5%, pressured by the 30 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The recent soybean market has continued the "near - strong and far - weak" differentiation pattern. The core driver lies in the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the export sales report became a key variable. However, the tariff cut in Argentina squeezed the market share of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest in Brazil in South America led to a downward shift in the support of far - month import costs. The domestic market showed a structural contradiction: the operating rate of oil mills declined periodically, and the 100% transaction of soybean auctions confirmed the short - term replenishment demand. The arrival of imported soybeans in December may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continued to sell off. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance to - 150 yuan/ton. In the short term, soybean meal 2605 continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern continued [6]. - The oil market showed a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal. The core driver was the dual effects of short - covering and technical repair needs. Firstly, after the previous continuous decline of rapeseed oil, short - sellers took profits, triggering a short - squeeze, but the market's expectations for state purchases and anti - dumping tax rate adjustments have not been confirmed, and the sustainability is questionable. Secondly, palm oil followed the rise weakly. Driven by the rebound of BMD, the export decline in Malaysia in the first ten days of December widened, and the output increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still put pressure on the palm oil price. Finally, soybean oil fluctuated weakly. On the one hand, the state's sale of soybeans supplemented the supply, and on the other hand, the cost support of US soybeans in the outer market weakened. Currently, the high pressure of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils at 2.43 million tons still exists. The short - term market is a technical repair under the disturbance of news. Before the inventory inflection point of palm oil arrives and the rapeseed oil policy is implemented, the oscillation center of the oil sector remains unchanged, and the risk of a rise and then fall should still be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - A weather report on Wednesday showed that the initial forecast for March - May 2026 indicated that the La Nina phenomenon would completely dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the US, crops in the Midwest/Plains faced a higher risk of drought, and Russia also faced drought risks. There might be excessive precipitation or spring floods in the North China Plain and Indonesia. In the next 5 days, the northern plains, Midwest, and northeastern regions of the US would face a cold snap risk, while the western temperatures would remain high. Heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in the northwest, and snowfall would occur in the northern plains/Midwest and northeastern regions, with other areas remaining dry. In South America, the Pampas region in Argentina had lower temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall, but only in the southern part; Brazil had more rainfall and lower temperatures. In Europe, most regions would have higher - than - average temperatures in the next week, and most regions except the UK, Spain, and Scandinavia would have lower - than - normal precipitation. In Asia, most regions would have temperatures close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, and the weather conditions in the eastern regions varied. It was expected that Southeast Asia and East Asia would have higher - than - normal precipitation [9]. - After being hit by a year of low prices, soaring costs, and a sharp decline in exports, American farmers welcomed President Trump's newly announced $12 billion agricultural aid plan but generally believed that this amount was only a "lifeline" and far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of $34 - 44 billion this year. Farmers' income was under pressure due to multiple factors. The prices of staple grains such as corn, soybeans, and wheat had been low for a long time, while input costs such as labor, fertilizers, and seeds continued to rise, greatly eroding profit margins. Trump's trade policies led to disputes that blocked the main US export markets, and soybeans were particularly hard - hit. China suspended all US soybean imports from May to November, causing American farmers to lose billions of dollars in export orders during the peak export season. Analysts believed that this part of the demand could not be recovered, and federal aid was expected to cover only a quarter of the soybean losses. From a macro perspective, the overall US agricultural economy was weak, and it was generally expected to continue to deteriorate in 2026. Less than half of the farmers were expected to make a profit next year, and cash - flow shortages, insufficient earnings, and inflation pressure were the three major concerns of the loan industry [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday that private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Since October 30, the USDA has confirmed sales of 2.984 million tons of soybeans to China through daily export reports. Chinese and US leaders met in South Korea on October 30 and reached an agreement to ease trade conflicts [11]. - The monthly crushing data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high and was higher than market expectations. In October 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons (equivalent to 237 million bushels), 15.6% higher than the 6.15 million short tons (250 million bushels) in September and 9.9% higher than the 6.47 million short tons (215.8 million bushels) in October 2024. Before the report was released, analysts' expected value was 7.027 million short tons (equivalent to 234.2 million bushels), with a forecast range from 229.9 million to 242.5 million bushels and a median of 233.3 million bushels. Due to the US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the crushing data for September and October were delayed, and the September data were re - issued on Wednesday. Previously, analysts predicted that the September soybean crushing volume would be 205.4 million bushels. In the past two years, the US soybean crushing industry has undergone significant capacity expansion, mainly driven by the growing demand for biofuels, especially the strong growth in the demand for soybean oil in the renewable diesel industry. Driven by this, the US soybean crushing volume has continued to rise, reaching record highs several times this year. With the successive commissioning of new capacities and the listing of new soybean supplies, October became an important window for crushing enterprises to increase their operating rates. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) had previously announced that its member companies' soybean crushing volume in October reached 227.6 million bushels, also setting a historical high [12]. Price and Profit Data - The price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of soybeans was 4,014 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang (≥43%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal was 3,132 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean oil was 8,559 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the average price of palm oil was 8,753 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,118 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [13]. - The oil mill crushing profit data showed that in Heilongjiang (domestic), with soybeans at 3,940 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,270 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,660 yuan/ton, the profit was 121.15 yuan. In Dalian (domestic), with soybeans at 4,020 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 81.60 yuan. In Dalian (imported), with soybeans at 3,980 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 20.10 yuan, etc. [14] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润 (the description seems to be in Chinese and might be "soybean on - disk crushing profit"), soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [15][17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by strong domestic demand and favorable supply reports, is expected to stabilize above 1000 cents per bushel, with potential for further increases [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The July soybean crush volume in the U.S. reached 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels, indicating robust domestic demand [1] - The increase in soybean demand is primarily attributed to rising U.S. soybean oil consumption, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The favorable demand conditions are supported by the recent comments from Trump urging China to purchase U.S. soybeans, alongside the positive supply-demand report [1] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Despite external support for soybean meal costs, domestic demand remains weak, with daily demand peaking at the beginning of August primarily driven by forward contracts for next year [1] - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume for soybean meal in August was 27.5 thousand tons, reflecting a lack of significant spot demand [1] - It is anticipated that the national average price for soybean meal will fluctuate between 3100 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton by the end of August [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures prices have reached a new phase high, driven by policy incentives that boost biofuel demand, raising questions about the sustainability of future price increases [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures have recently hit a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The increase in palm oil prices is attributed to favorable policies that enhance the demand for biofuels [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the upward trend in prices can be maintained in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, supported by the China-US tariff joint statement and the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, breaking through the trading range since mid - April. The Malaysian palm oil opened higher due to the strong external market but was later suppressed by the unexpectedly high inventory in the April data released by MPOB [6]. - Domestically, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising month - on - month with high supply pressure later. The short - term price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to decline, and the price will mainly follow the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to rise, but with uncertain medium - to - long - term imported rapeseed supply and the strong recent trend of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output reaches a record 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% due to Brazil's increased production. The global crushing volume is expected to increase by 3.3% to a record 366.46 million tons, led by Chinese demand. The global export is 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with Brazil's share rising. The ending inventory is estimated to be 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - In April, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 19.37% month - on - month to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month to 1.686 million tons, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month to 1.102 million tons [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's edible vegetable oil production is predicted to be 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous year. Among them, soybean oil production is 17.16 million tons and rapeseed oil production is 7.76 million tons, decreasing by 140,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively due to the decline in soybean and rapeseed imports. Peanut oil production is 4 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons due to better planting benefits and increased policy support. The predicted consumption of edible vegetable oil is the same as the previous year [3][4]. Fundamental Data Charts No information provided. Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans rose due to positive factors, and Malaysian palm oil's rise was suppressed by high inventory [6]. - Domestic: The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range; the domestic palm oil price follows the import cost; domestic rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6].