1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Besant）公开呼吁应实施"一系列降息"，而特朗普总统也加大了对美联 储主席鲍威尔的批评力度，指责其货币政策不利于经济增长。更有甚者，政府方面还提出可能就美联储 总部翻新工程发起法律行动，进一步施压央行。分析认为，此类政治干预不仅可能削弱美联储货币政策 独立性和市场公信力，若持续发酵，还将加剧市场对政策受非经济因素干扰的担忧，从而对美元汇率构 成额外的下行压力。 昨日，美元指数上涨在98.35之下遇阻，下跌在97.90之上受到支持，意味着美元短线下跌后有可能保持 上涨的走势。如果美元指数今天下跌在98.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向98.45--98.55之间。 周三（8月20日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.43，涨幅0.15%，开盘价为98.28。美联储正面临日益 加剧的政治压力。 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Determinants - Gold's price is primarily influenced by the strength of dollar credit and real interest rates[1] - The relationship between gold prices and CPI has weakened since the inflation issues of the 1980s[1] - During periods of stagflation, gold prices were positively correlated with real interest rates, but this has shifted to a negative correlation in recent decades[2] Group 2: Current Market Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected to end, with a potential upward trend in the medium to long term[3] - The U.S. government is likely to pursue a weaker dollar, increasing long-term dollar credit risk[3] - Recent U.S. employment data shows a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls adding less than 36,000 jobs over three months, indicating a high probability of interest rate cuts in September[3] Group 3: Historical Context - From 1971 to 1980, gold prices rose from $38 to $737, a nearly 1850% increase, driven by high inflation and dollar credit risk[3] - The second major bull market for gold occurred from 2001 to 2011, with prices rising from $270 to approximately $1,810, reflecting a similar decline in dollar credit[3] - The analysis framework suggests that gold's price movements are primarily determined by the interplay between dollar credit risk and real interest rates[3]

来源：西京研究院 本文为西京研究院发表的第851篇文章，赵建院长的第786篇原创文章。如需阅读近期"中国资产重估"系列文章《赵建：我们又处在历 史的十字路口，时代的错误不能再犯》（上、中、下）全文版，并观看私域直播及参与内部交流，请加入我们的内部会员。 前言 特朗普与美联储的降息博弈牵动市场神经，7 月 CPI 数据暂缓和了双方分歧，却难掩深层矛盾。 这场交锋并非孤例，百年间美国总统与美联储的角力不断，核心始终围绕美联储独立性—— 这既是美元信用的基石，也是政治与货币 纪律的博弈场。 本文回溯历史，解析美联储独立基因的由来、制度保障及历次冲突启示，为看清当前金融走向、调整资产配置提供关键视角。 正 文 自特朗普上台以来，就对拿着专业独立性说事的几个政府部门不满，其中最为不满的恐怕就是掌控世界货币与金融命运的美联储。特 朗普已经在多个场合对美联储及其主席鲍威尔横加指责，抱怨其不尽快降息，甚至扬言要炒掉主席鲍威尔，只无奈美联储的独立性受 到法律保护，大总统也不能为所欲为没有规矩。不过投资者对两人的恩怨情仇倒是乐此不疲，时不时围绕着降息概率和两者的关系进 行交易，市场波动性陡然升高。 随着美国7月CPI数据的公布， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts reflects deeper issues surrounding the independence of the Fed, which is crucial for the stability of the US dollar and the global financial system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is essential for maintaining the predictability of the dollar's value, which in turn supports global demand for dollar-denominated assets [5][17]. - A loss of independence could transform the dollar from a global "value anchor" into a domestic "political tool," undermining its credibility and accelerating the diversification of global reserve currencies [5][17]. Group 2: Historical Lessons - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of political pressure on the Fed, such as the 1971 Nixon administration's pressure leading to the "stagflation" period, where inflation peaked at 15% and unemployment exceeded 10% [6]. - The market's reaction to political threats against the Fed, such as Trump's threats to dismiss Powell, indicates a deep-seated fear of political interference, which can lead to significant market volatility [7]. Group 3: Background and Evolution of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 as a response to the financial crises of the 19th century, with a design aimed at preventing political interference in monetary policy [9][10]. - Legal safeguards have been put in place to ensure the Fed's independence, including restrictions on presidential dismissals and the separation of fiscal and monetary policy [10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Political and Monetary Discipline - The historical conflicts between the Fed and US presidents often arise from differing time horizons, with presidents focused on short-term electoral cycles and the Fed prioritizing long-term economic stability [16]. - The current political climate, characterized by rising debt levels and the temptation for debt monetization, poses ongoing challenges to the Fed's independence [16][17].

Group 1 - The total amount of US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, indicating a significant increase in debt levels and suggesting that future growth is likely [1] - The ratio of US debt to GDP is projected to be 126.8% in 2024, raising concerns about potential debt crises, although the US has unique advantages compared to Greece due to its ability to print its own currency [1][2] - The US has two main strategies to manage its debt: selling bonds to foreign central banks and investors, and printing more dollars, which could lead to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - The accumulation of US debt is not without risks, as the credibility of the dollar is crucial for maintaining investor confidence [2] - The Federal Reserve's actions, such as interest rate hikes, are intended to support the dollar's credibility but may inadvertently accelerate debt accumulation [3] - The US government's inability to reduce spending and the rising interest on debt are contributing to the increasing debt burden [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's policies have weakened the foundations of dollar credibility, impacting the US's global influence and economic stability [4][5] - Trade policies aimed at reducing deficits may undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, leading to potential challenges in selling US debt [5][6] - The rise of alternative currencies and assets, such as digital currencies and gold, poses a challenge to the dollar's dominance [6][7] Group 4 - The current strategy of the US to address its debt issues involves leveraging its position to pressure other countries, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar [8][9] - Central banks are encouraged to adapt to the changing environment by diversifying their reserves away from US debt and dollars into other valuable assets [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler marks a significant shift in the power dynamics of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy and the potential influence of political figures like former President Trump [1][3][6]. Group 1: Resignation Impact - Kugler's departure is not merely a technical personnel change; it has profound political implications, especially as she represented a balance between employment and inflation policies [3][6]. - Her exit opens a pathway for Trump to redefine the Federal Reserve, as he has openly challenged the independence of the institution and called for the resignation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure on the Fed - Trump's rhetoric suggests a desire to politicize the Fed's decision-making process, which could undermine the institution's credibility and its ability to maintain market neutrality [6][8]. - The potential for a "Trump-style board" to take control raises concerns about the future of U.S. monetary policy and its independence from presidential influence [8]. Group 3: Global Implications - The perception of the Federal Reserve as an independent entity is eroding, with global markets increasingly viewing it as susceptible to political manipulation [8]. - The ongoing interest rate hikes have already triggered debt crises in several countries, and further politicization could further destabilize the dollar's credibility [8].

Core Points - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing the heavy burden of national debt interest payments, which amount to $1.2 trillion annually [1][3] - The current interest rate of 4.5% could be reduced to 1%, potentially saving the government around $1 trillion each year, which could help address the fiscal deficit caused by Trump's policies [1] - Powell is cautious about lowering rates due to the current core inflation rate of 2.8% and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1][3] Group 1 - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation budget, which escalated from an initial $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, labeling it as a waste of taxpayer money [3] - He has employed a strategy of public criticism followed by calls for investigation, reminiscent of his past political tactics [3] - Powell's position is legally protected, as the President cannot remove the Fed Chair without evidence of misconduct, and Powell's term lasts until 2028 [5] Group 2 - Wall Street supports Powell, with JPMorgan's CEO stating that attacking him undermines market confidence, and Goldman Sachs warning of potential market volatility if Trump's policies are enforced [5] - The Treasury Secretary publicly supports Trump but is privately exploring potential successors for Powell, indicating internal tensions [5] - Recent documents suggest a 78% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a subtle shift in Powell's policy stance despite his public resistance [5] Group 3 - Historical parallels are drawn to Nixon's pressure on the Fed, which led to significant inflation, highlighting the risks of politicizing monetary policy [7] - Concerns are raised about the integrity of the U.S. financial system if the Fed is treated as a political tool, with recent actions by other countries signaling a lack of confidence in U.S. debt [7] - Global investors are closely monitoring the situation, questioning whether the U.S. will risk its financial system for personal political agendas [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is a systematic response to global macroeconomic uncertainties rather than a short-term fluctuation, driven by factors such as trade rule ambiguity and a weakening of the dollar's dominance [5][9][14]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of July 22, 2023, spot gold prices reached $3425.75 per ounce, marking a 0.86% increase, while COMEX futures rose nearly 1% to $3439 per ounce [1][2]. - The price increase is attributed to expectations of failed trade negotiations between the US and Europe, alongside a broader disappointment with the dollar's dominant order [5][6]. - The demand for gold is shifting from being a commodity to a form of institutional protection, reflecting a change in its pricing logic [10][14]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, with a notable rise in demand from countries like China, Turkey, Poland, and India [10][11]. - The global central bank gold purchasing trend has significantly outpaced overall demand growth, with central bank purchases increasing by 621.7 tons compared to a total demand increase of 115.2 tons [10][11]. - The current low levels of gold reserves in emerging market central banks indicate substantial room for future increases in gold holdings [11]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural demand from central banks [13]. - The ongoing decline in trust among nations is expected to lead to a long-term restructuring of the global economic and monetary system, further supporting gold's appeal as a safe asset [15][16]. - The transition of gold from an inflation hedge to a systemic protection asset reflects a broader reassessment of global credit and sovereign security [18].