智通财经APP获悉，招商证券国际发布研报称，港股市场如期在 9 月中上旬反弹，AI 互联网等科技板 块和有色行业成为结构主线。美联储减息"靴子落地"后，市场可能迎来震荡加剧，但中长期向上趋势不 改。 外资净流入仍有长期提升空间，但美国本轮减息路径可能较为曲折。AI 发展和新移民政策对美国经济 影响复杂，美国政府力量介入市场等新因素可能导致历史经验失效，宏观经济和利率政策预期将出现剧 烈分歧，影响外资流入节奏。 短期实质利好政策有限。一方面银行净息差持续收窄难以通过压力测试，另一方面流动性未趋紧，预计 定向降准可能性更大。中美元首通话涉及 TikTok 问题，字节跳动可能保留20%股权并授权算法给美国 企业，但关税和出口管制等实质问题难以达成，短期对风险偏好提升作用有限。此外，8月经济数据继 续边际下行，基本面支撑有限，节前南向资金风偏较低。 该行指，投资建议继续把握科技(AI互联网大盘+高端制造小盘)和有色金属主线，同时增配预期差较大 的港股保险股、"困境反转"和高股息等价值策略，部分超跌优质创新药可自下而上配置。需警惕小盘股 操纵风险，如药捷安康-B(02617)、山高控股(00412)等通过坐庄拉抬进入港 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the total market capitalization of Chinese biotech stocks listed in Hong Kong has increased by 154% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 34% rise, indicating a major shift in market recognition of local pharmaceutical companies' innovation capabilities [1] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's accelerated interest rate cuts will enhance risk appetite, directing funds towards growth sectors such as Chinese biotechnology [1] - However, the performance of individual stocks is expected to depend on company fundamentals, including commercialization execution and innovation research progress [1] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism for companies with short-term catalysts, specifically naming Kangfang Biotech (09926), Nuo Cheng Jian Hua (09969), and others as potential beneficiaries [1] - Additionally, it assigns an "outperform" rating to Weisheng Pharmaceutical-B (02561) and Zai Lab (09688) [1]

Group 1 - The total market capitalization of Chinese biotech stocks listed in Hong Kong has increased by 154% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 34% rise, indicating a major shift in market recognition of local pharmaceutical companies' innovation capabilities [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve accelerating interest rate cuts is anticipated to boost risk appetite, directing funds towards growth sectors such as Chinese biotech [1] - Individual stock performance will still depend on company fundamentals, including commercialization execution and innovation research progress [1] Group 2 - Companies with short-term catalysts that are favored include Kangfang Biotech (09926), Innovent Biologics (09969), Huyou-B (02256), Sinopharm (01801), and Eucure Biopharma-B (09606) [1] - Morgan Stanley has given "outperform" ratings to Weisheng Pharmaceutical-B (02561) and Zai Lab (09688) [1]

9月18日，美联储减息25个基点，但香港拆息依然高企，今早港元拆息全线向上，与楼按相关的一个月 拆息报3.36089%，升14.982基点，是5月6日后最高，创四个月高位;反映 银行资金成本的三个月拆息报 3.39827%，升10.071基点。 ...

Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]

此外，因美国经济正面临周期性与结构性双重压力，安联仍确信收益率曲线趋陡;虽然该行已于夏季适 时进行部分获利平仓。外汇方面，安联认为美元持续面临周期性增长与结构性阻力，这强化了安联短仓 美元兑一篮子货币的看法。 在9月16日及17日美联储议息会议前，安联投资全球固定收益首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger发表评 论，重点如下：安联预期美联储将于本周会议上宣布减息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至4% 至4.25%。目前短期利率市场几乎已完全反映今年最后三次美联储会议均减息的可能性，对比今夏初时 市场仅预期一次减息。美国就业市场疲弱将支持近期改变的减息预期;通胀数据持续高于预期的可能性 将是未来唯一可扰乱利率预期的因素。 该行相信，未来美联储政策预测中最大的变量，可能是特朗普政府对美联储日益增强的制度性压力。特 朗普正开始更强硬地推动改变美联储理事会的组成;同时已提出一份倾向促进经济增长的候选人名单， 以在2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满时接替美联储主席职位。因此，未来数月内，短期利率市场或会进一步 下调联邦基金利率的终点预期，远低于当前长期中性利率预测的3%。 安联对美国收益率曲线和美元的核心观 ...

Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at DWS, Christian Scherrmann, indicates that there is sufficient reason for a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting due to a cooling labor market and lack of significant price transmission pressure from tariffs [1] - The focus of the Federal Reserve meeting will not only be on interest rates but also on the clarity of the dovish stance from officials and how economic forecasts will reflect this position [1] - There are concerns about future inflation risks despite recent favorable inflation data, as companies may choose to raise prices to maintain profit margins, and labor shortages could push prices higher if major investment projects are realized [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining a balanced tone amid risks, with market expectations suggesting rates will drop to neutral or lower levels by 2026 [2] - It is anticipated that Powell will adopt a more cautious approach, relying on data due to the uncertain outlook and increased risk of policy missteps [2] - Discussions regarding Powell's successor are ongoing, and there may be internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a rate cut larger than 25 basis points [2]

Group 1 - The private residential property price index in Hong Kong rose to 287.9 points in July, a 0.42% increase from June, marking four consecutive months of growth, although it is down 3.26% year-on-year [1] - The rental index reached 196.3 points in July, reflecting a 0.56% month-on-month increase and a 1.29% year-on-year rise, with a cumulative increase of 1.97% in the first seven months of the year [1] - The increase in property prices is attributed to the decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), creating a "super low interest honeymoon period" that has attracted buyers into the market [1] Group 2 - The government’s policy report is anticipated to include economic stimulus measures, which could positively impact the property market, leading to a recovery in property prices [2] - The first-hand property market is performing well, with approximately 1,700 transactions recorded so far this month, potentially reaching 2,500 for the entire month, surpassing June's high of 2,400 [2] - The rental market is experiencing sustained demand due to various talent policies and the influx of overseas and mainland students, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that is likely to keep rental prices rising [2]

Group 1 - Selena Ling, head of Global Financial Markets Research and Strategy at OCBC Bank, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total potential reduction of up to 75 basis points for the year, anticipating five rate cuts over the next two years [1] - Ling indicates that the demand from central banks, institutions, and retail investors, along with the Fed's resumption of the rate-cutting cycle, could enhance the attractiveness of gold, projecting a year-end target price of $3,570 per ounce and a mid-next-year target of $3,850 per ounce [1] - OCBC's Hong Kong economist, Jiang Jing, has raised the GDP forecast for Hong Kong from 2.2% to 2.6% for the year, citing better-than-expected economic performance in the first half, while expecting moderate growth in the second half due to tariff disruptions and mixed effects from asset market wealth [1] Group 2 - OCBC's Hong Kong economist, Wang Haoting, notes that the US dollar index has performed poorly this year, the worst in nearly 20 years, influenced by uncertainties in US policies such as tariffs, and expects the dollar to continue weakening [1] - The bank forecasts the US dollar index to drop to 95.55 by the end of this year and to 94.93 by mid-next year, driven by trends of dollar diversification and the Fed potentially entering a rate-cutting phase [1] - The bank anticipates that Hong Kong banks will further lower the best lending rate by 25 basis points in the third quarter, returning to levels seen before the US rate hike cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the target price for Henderson Land Development (00012) from HKD 31 to HKD 30, citing a discount of approximately 50% to the net asset value per share, while anticipating a potential bottoming out of Hong Kong property prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to remain flat this year, while office and shopping mall rents may decline by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for Henderson Land Development for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% to reflect underwhelming mid-term performance, the latest pre-sale status of property development projects, rental income expectations, and the progress of land reclamation [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the earnings downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains the dividend forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at HKD 1.8 per share, expecting stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), accelerated land reclamation, improved residential sales in the second half, and support from major shareholders [1]