来源：晨明的策略深度思考 作者：刘晨明/陈振威 报告摘要 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，预期增加5.2万人，前值修正为增加2.2万人，大超预期。失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。从 市场表现来看，投资者将该份非农报告解读为中性偏弱。CME FEDWATCH数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率自39%回升至71%，前期因美联储重要官员密集 的鹰派发言导致市场的降息预期骤减，目前降息预期已回升至较高水平。 参考美国基本面和历史"软着陆"降息情形，12月降息紧迫性并不强：（1）从基本面来看，当前通胀仍处温和回升的趋势，大幅走高的风险不强；就业方 面，10月新增就业和裁员人数激增并存的背景下，就业市场短期或将处于微妙的平衡，大幅走弱的风险较低；（2）从历史复盘来看，"软着陆"降息的幅度 约75-100bp，当前就业并未出现明显衰退的背景下，美联储可能短期将暂停降息，并为明年降息留足空间。但是从政策倾向来看，美联储官员内部分歧仍 存，在非农数据公布前以鹰派发声为主，但近日约翰威廉姆斯和哈塞特则明确支持12月继续降息。综合来看，12月是否降息仍然存在不确定性。 我们认为美股短期将迎来修复 ...

可能带来的具体影响分析 1. 对美联储货币政策的影响（最关键的影响） 这是数据的核心影响领域。报告发布后，互换合约显示美联储12月降息可能性不大，这本身就说明了市场的解读。 结论： 这份报告强化了美联储"按兵不动"的立场。它既没有强劲到让美联储考虑再次加息，也没有疲软到让其开始讨论降息。美联储将继续依赖后续的数 据，特别是通胀数据（CPI和PCE），来做出决策。12月降息的可能性确实很低，市场目前的预期是首次降息可能在2025年第一季度。 2. 对金融市场的影响 这种"好坏参半"的数据，正是市场和经济学家们目前争论的焦点：美国经济是正在实现"软着陆"（即通胀下降而不引发严重衰退），还是即将步入放缓甚至 衰退？ 美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期的两倍多，但7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。9月失业率意外升至4.4%，为2021年10月以来最高。美 国上周初请失业金人数下降8000人至22万人，续请失业金人数升至4年新高。数据公布后，互换合约继续显示美联储12月降息的可能性不大。 核心矛盾点： 正面信号： 9月新增就业人数强劲（超预期），初请失业金人数下降，表明企业招聘需求依然旺盛。 负面信号 ...

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined due to government shutdowns and high prices, reaching its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.3 in early November from 53.6 in October and 71.8 a year ago [1] - Concerns over the prolonged government impasse are overshadowing positive market sentiments from record-high stock prices, leading consumers to worry about the potential negative impacts on the economy [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the ongoing government shutdown could reduce the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 2023, affecting millions of low-income families and federal employees [1] Employment Market Outlook - Public perception of the job market is deteriorating, with unemployment expectations rising for the third consecutive month, indicating a 43% chance of job loss within the next year [2] - In October, U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, a 175% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level of layoffs for this period in over 20 years [2] - The total number of layoffs in the first ten months of the year surpassed one million, reflecting a 65% year-on-year increase, driven by factors such as AI adoption, weak consumer and business spending, and rising costs [2]

Core Insights - UBS warns that the narrative of "low hiring, low layoffs" in the U.S. job market is collapsing, with cumulative layoffs reaching the highest level since 2009 as of October [1][4] - The latest Challenger job cut data shows that seasonally adjusted layoffs in October reached 192,000, a significant increase of 126,000 month-over-month [1] - Private sector layoffs surged to 157,000, the highest level for October on record, excluding government and non-profit sectors [1] - The technology sector saw layoffs of 25,000 in October, while the warehousing and logistics sector experienced a dramatic increase of 46,000 [1] - AI-related layoffs jumped from zero in September to 31,000 in October [1] Layoff Statistics - Cumulative layoffs for 2025 have reached 760,000, surpassing the 601,000 recorded in the same period of 2024 and marking the highest figure for any year since 2009 [4] - The average monthly layoffs over the past six months stand at 85,000, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic norm of 30,000 to 50,000 from 2014 to 2019 [7] Hiring Trends - Seasonal hiring plans for September and October totaled 400,000, well below the average of 625,000 from 2014 to 2019 and lower than the figures for 2023 and 2024 [8] - Amazon plans to maintain its seasonal hiring of 250,000 workers, which, despite appearing stable, indicates a cautious approach amid declining demand [8] - Target has ceased disclosing the number of seasonal positions, reflecting a lack of optimism in hiring [8] Market Implications - UBS warns that the widening cracks in the job market pose risks for investors betting on a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as record-high layoff data contrasts with ongoing debates over minor fluctuations in non-farm payroll data [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company generated net investment income and adjusted net investment income of $0.57 per share, slightly below public guidance of approximately $0.58 and $0.57 per share respectively [8] - The net asset value increased to $21.99 per share from $21.93 at the end of Q2 2025 [26] - Total investment income was $373 million, a decrease of $25 million compared to Q2 2025, primarily due to lower interest income [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated approximately $1.1 billion of new investments in Q3 2025, with 60% focused on add-on financings to existing portfolio companies [16] - New investments consisted of 65% in first lien loans, 7% in subordinated debt, 15% in asset-based finance investments, and 12% in capital calls to the joint venture [16] - The weighted average yield on accruing debt investments was 10.5%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of deals evaluated in Q3 increased by approximately 30% year over year, indicating a building momentum in M&A activity [12] - The portfolio companies reported a weighted average year-on-year EBITDA growth rate of approximately 4% [17] - Non-accruals represented 5% of the portfolio on a cost basis, down from 5.3% in Q2 2025 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to implement a forward dividend strategy starting in Q1 2026, targeting an annualized yield of approximately 10% on net asset value [10] - The focus remains on U.S.-based direct lending and top-of-the-capital structure risk, with asset-based finance investments as a complementary part of the portfolio [14] - The company is actively monitoring tariff-related exposures and has low single-digit exposure to U.S. government-related borrowers [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the BDC industry, noting that many companies successfully navigated previous periods of volatility [5] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce rates, which will be beneficial for portfolio companies and likely generate additional M&A activity [6] - Management acknowledged pockets of weakness in economic indicators but noted a healthy labor market supported by solid corporate earnings [12] Other Important Information - The company issued $400 million of unsecured notes due 2031, which were swapped to floating rate [28] - As of September 30, available liquidity was $3.7 billion, with gross and net debt-to-equity levels at 120% and 116% respectively [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Improvement on legacy names and exit strategy - Management noted progress in restructuring efforts and expressed optimism about monetizing certain investments [33] Question: Progress on spillover and potential special distributions - Management indicated they expect to clean out a little over $100 million of spillover by year-end and may consider a one-time distribution in the first half of next year [35] Question: Dividend policy and resilience in various economic cycles - Management confirmed confidence in the base distribution level, considering various economic factors and forward curves [52] Question: Competitive factors in asset-based finance due to recent defaults - Management stated that recent defaults have not significantly impacted their competitive position, as they have avoided heavy cyclical businesses [74]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. stock market, gold, and Bitcoin experienced gains following the release of better-than-expected ADP employment data, which indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the market expectation of around 30,000 [2] - The ADP employment figure, while above expectations, is still below historical averages, suggesting a balanced economic condition that reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, leading to a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to growth optimism [2] - Trump's immediate response to the data, emphasizing the need to reopen the government to restore market confidence, was interpreted as a signal that policy support would be forthcoming, further boosting market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the positive ADP data, a member of the Federal Reserve appointed by Trump reiterated that continued interest rate cuts remain reasonable, reinforcing the market's positive outlook [3] - Despite the gains in the stock market, caution remains as the upward trend is moderate and has not fully recovered from earlier losses, with rising dollar and bond yields serving as a warning signal [3] - A report titled "Gold Strategy: The Upcoming Scene" was released, indicating that the recent decline in gold prices may have ended, and outlining two trading plans for gold as the market shows signs of hesitation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold remains trapped between resistance at $4046.20 and support at $3886.62, with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on potential rate cuts in December creating a lack of directional catalysts in the market [1][3]. Market Overview - Gold (XAU/USD) continues to hover around the $4000 mark, entering a consolidation phase following the Fed's rate cut last week. Powell's emphasis on uncertainty regarding December's rate cut has dampened bullish sentiment [3][5]. - U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4%, and the dollar remains strong, leading to a sideways movement in gold prices. Traders are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key indicators such as ADP employment, ISM services, and non-farm payroll data [3][5]. Current Price Action - A clear consolidation range has formed on the 4-hour chart, with the upper boundary at $4046.20 and the lower boundary at $3886.62, while the $4000 level serves as a pivot point [5]. - Following a decline from the historical high of $4381.38, gold prices are in a consolidation phase, indicating the market is building energy for the next directional move [5]. Key Observations - If gold breaks and closes above $4046.20, it may trigger a short-term rebound targeting $4115–$4150, with potential to retest $4200 if momentum continues [5][8]. - Conversely, a drop below $3886.62 would lead to a continuation of the downtrend, targeting $3835–$3800, with further declines possible to $3760 if market risk appetite weakens [5][8]. Fundamental Background - The Fed's signal of a "one-time rate cut" has placed gold in a waiting state. While the rate cut has been priced in, uncertainty regarding December's policy direction keeps the market sensitive to reactions [5][6]. - The $4000 level remains a key sentiment indicator for the market [5]. Upcoming Data Points - ADP and ISM services data to be released mid-week: Weak data could strengthen dovish expectations, lowering yields and boosting gold prices [6]. - Non-farm payroll and wage data (date TBD): Slower employment growth may push gold above $4046.20 [6]. - Risks of government shutdown may lead to data delays or revisions, potentially causing short-term volatility and keeping gold prices within the established range [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The decision to adjust the policy rate is seen as appropriate given the current economic conditions, which include resilient consumer spending and business investment, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [1][6]. Economic Conditions - The economy has shown remarkable resilience, with consumers continuing to spend and businesses investing, contributing to good growth [1]. - Inflation is gradually decreasing but remains too high, necessitating continued efforts to bring it down [1][6]. Labor Market - The labor market has softened compared to last year, indicated by longer job search times and moderated wage growth [2]. - There is a need to balance inflation control with support for the labor market to avoid job losses while managing inflation [3][6]. Policy Considerations - The current policy rate remains in a modestly restrictive territory after a 50 basis point reduction this year, prompting discussions on whether further adjustments are necessary or if a pause to gather more information is warranted [4][5]. - The focus is on assessing incoming information to make balanced decisions that support economic stability and aim for a soft landing [7].

Economic Growth Overview - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2% in Q1 and 1.8% in Q2, resulting in a solid growth rate of 1.9% for the first half [1] - The strong performance is primarily attributed to robust private consumption, supported by a healthy labor market and rising wage growth, despite pressures from the interest rate environment [3] Trade and External Demand - The external trade environment remains complex, with a restrained execution of tariff policies alleviating some tensions in the global trade system, creating conditions for U.S. companies to maintain a "not too bad" external demand environment [3] - However, a subtle shift in economic momentum is observed, with a clear slowdown from 2% growth in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, indicating a gradual deceleration [3] Economic Forecasts - Bloomberg's survey reflects a 1.7% growth forecast, capturing the collective wisdom of financial market participants, which is based on current economic data and short-term trends [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's more cautious 1.6% growth prediction highlights its role as an economic "gatekeeper," focusing on risk management and maintaining policy credibility [6][7] Risk Management Perspectives - The divergence in growth forecasts illustrates different risk management philosophies, with market participants prioritizing growth opportunities while the Federal Reserve emphasizes systemic risk prevention [7] - The Fed's conservative growth outlook serves as a forward guidance tool, aiming to temper market optimism and create space for future policy adjustments [7] Structural Risks - Key risks facing the U.S. economy include uncertainties in tariff policies, which could lead to cautious corporate investment decisions and potential distortions in global trade flows [8] - Structural changes in the labor market post-pandemic, such as shifts in labor participation rates and wage growth dynamics, are also concerning, with potential implications for economic growth [10] Economic Outlook for H2 2025 - Projections for the second half of 2025 suggest a slowdown in growth, with Q3 expected to be around 1.4% and Q4 maintaining approximately 1.5%, leading to an annual growth rate close to 1.7% [11] - This trajectory aligns with the Federal Reserve's narrative of a "soft landing," but achieving this balance between growth and inflationary pressures remains challenging [11] Conclusion - The U.S. economy is at a critical turning point, transitioning from pandemic-induced volatility to a more normalized growth phase, characterized by uncertainty and complexity [12] - Understanding the underlying logic behind market optimism and policy caution is crucial for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for flexibility and an open mindset in navigating potential scenarios [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the September CPI data in the U.S., highlighting a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is above the previous value of 2.9% but below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also shows a similar trend, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs and energy prices [1][7][20]. CPI Data Summary - The September CPI data was initially scheduled for release on October 15 but was postponed to October 24 due to the government shutdown. However, CPI data remains a priority as it is essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments for social security [1][6]. - The year-on-year CPI increase of 3% in September reflects a rebound in energy prices, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, lower than both the previous value and expectations [7][8]. - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is also below both the previous value and expectations [7][20]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of at least 0.2% increase. This reflects the shared burden of new tariffs among businesses, suppliers, and consumers [2][13]. - Specific items affected by tariffs include personal computers (+0.2%), sports goods (+1%), footwear (+0.9%), clothing (+0.7%), and household appliances (+0.8%) [2][13][14]. - Core services prices cooled down, with a core services CPI of 3.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than previous values. Housing costs showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3][16][17]. Inflation Trends and Business Responses - Overall, the inflation data for September indicates a moderate recovery, with businesses absorbing some costs from tariffs while also passing on some to consumers. For instance, new car prices increased only 0.8% year-on-year, while used car prices saw a higher increase [4][20][21]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that about one-third of manufacturing firms have passed on all tariff costs to customers, while around 45% have only passed on part of the costs, and 25% have absorbed the costs entirely [20][21]. Economic Indicators - The October Markit PMI data showed strong economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 54.8, the highest in six months. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, indicating robust activity in various sectors [5][22]. - However, consumer confidence slightly declined to 53.6 in October, reflecting concerns over high interest rates and price fatigue [23]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was reported at 96.7%, reinforcing market expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy. U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices, with technology stocks leading the rally [5][24][25].