Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the surge in gold consumption ahead of the National Day holiday, with a notable increase in sales for investment gold and promotional activities driving consumer interest [1] - The stock price of Chow Tai Fook (06168) rose nearly 7%, reaching 48.5 HKD, with a trading volume of 96.14 million HKD, indicating strong market interest [1] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming peak season for gold consumption, particularly for wedding and self-gifting jewelry, is contributing to the positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities' report indicates that Chow Tai Fook's online sales are experiencing high growth, while there remains significant expansion potential for offline stores, suggesting a promising long-term growth outlook [1] - The company is recognized as a leading domestic gold jewelry brand, leveraging a combined online and offline sales model to penetrate lower-tier markets and achieve differentiated positioning [1] - The continuous expansion of the gold jewelry market and Chow Tai Fook's potential developments in North and East China markets provide a strong revenue growth impetus and broad future prospects [1]

Group 1 - BYD launched the second generation Qin PLUS on September 25, featuring three versions: Qin PLUS DM-i 128KM, Qin PLUS EV 420KM, and Qin PLUS 510KM [1] - Multiple versions of the Qin PLUS are offered with a limited-time discount of 10,000 yuan, with prices for the DM-i leading version dropping to 69,800 yuan, and the EV versions priced at 99,800 yuan and 109,800 yuan respectively [1] - Other automakers, including Tesla, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, have also introduced new models and promotional discounts in September, indicating a competitive market environment [1] Group 2 - The introduction of limited-time discounts by automakers is driven by strong seasonal demand and policy support, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" sales peak [2] - It is projected that the total sales of passenger vehicles in September will reach 2.2 million units, supported by promotional activities and the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2] - A new policy announced in 2023 exempts new energy vehicles from purchase tax for purchases made between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2025, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle [2] Group 3 - Compared to previous years, the number of discounted models has decreased this year, with 23 models seeing price cuts in August, down from 29 last year and 25 in 2023 [3] - The current price competition is characterized by new models breaking existing price ceilings rather than simply increasing features without lowering prices [3] - In August, only six models were directly discounted, indicating a trend towards enhancing value through improved specifications rather than outright price reductions [3]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘扰动再起，油价反弹，但不改供给过剩局面。近期乌克兰再次袭击俄 | | 原油 | | 罗斯，油价反弹，但供给过剩局面没有改变；库存方面，美国库存下降， | | | 谨慎看空 | 油价下方有支撑；供需方面，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | ★ | | | | | | 升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平 | | | | 衡点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端油价有所反弹，下游化工开工率下降，节前排库，液化气依旧偏弱。 | | LPG | | 成本端原油短期反弹，但供给过剩压力上升，价格中枢预计会继续下移； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 LPG | 估值修复，主力合约基差回归至正常；PDH 利润转弱，开工率大幅回 | | | | 落；供给端和库存量均上升，偏利空。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 短期跟随成本反弹为主，现货止跌反弹，基差较前期有所修复但盘面依旧 | | | | 维持升水结构。关注下游补库力度。前期检 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,055 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 90,294 lots, down 1,118 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -1,874 lots, up 1,770 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 59,417 tons, down 68 tons; the SHFE inventory is 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 225,625 tons, down 3,950 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the lead main contract is -105 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is -47.54 dollars/ton, down 6.38 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,296 yuan; the WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is -1.87 million tons; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,870 yuan/ton; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, down 50; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, down 6.75 million tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 million tons, down 0.19 million tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -90 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG monthly lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shenwan tertiary - industry index of batteries is 2,149.88 points, down 23.77 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 0.2986 million vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope; Trump calls for companies to change from quarterly to semi - annual reports, and the NASDAQ CEO supports it; the US plans to expand the strategic uranium reserve; India and the US will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday; the US military launched a second strike against Venezuelan drug traffickers; there is no evidence that Fed Governor Cook violated the main residence reporting regulations; former Fed official Brad is "very interested" in becoming the Fed chairman; Musk bought more than 2.5 million Tesla shares in a single day [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the US August non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. On the supply side, primary lead production has recovered, while recycled lead production is restricted by environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries is gradually warming up, but the overall demand has not yet increased significantly. In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventory has decreased, domestic inventory has increased, and the overall inventory remains unchanged. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and lead prices are expected to be supported [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PP: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PVC: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Short-Term Rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Short-Term Rebound [3] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market do not change the situation of oversupply, and the oil price is trending downward. The cost of LPG has insufficient upward momentum, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The market sentiment for L, PP, PVC, and glass has improved, and attention is paid to the basis repair. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be tight in balance, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and caution is exercised. Methanol and urea are expected to have limited downside, and long positions are considered. The price of natural gas has fallen, and asphalt is under pressure [1][2][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.11%, Brent rising 0.67%, and SC rising 1.66% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to increased supply pressure. The U.S. crude oil consumption peak season has ended, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually decreasing. In the medium to long term, there is a high probability that the price will be pressured to around $60 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The attack on the Russian port by Ukraine led to a short-term rebound in oil prices. OPEC predicts that the global oil demand growth rate will remain at 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break-even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [485 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 15, the PG main contract closed at 4,513 yuan/ton, up 1.51% month-on-month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of upstream crude oil has downward potential, and LPG is under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4450 - 4550] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L main contract closed at 7,209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, but the upward drive is insufficient. This week's production has declined, and it is expected to rebound next week. The demand for agricultural films is increasing, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7150 - 7250] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract closed at 6,939 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is insufficient. The production has increased, but it is expected to decline this week. The downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the raw material demand is gradually increasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased for 12 consecutive weeks. The production is expected to decline next week. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase short positions. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4800 - 4900] [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The PX11 contract closed at 6,712 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply-side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The demand-side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has increased the load in the short term. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is still high [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips for intraday short-term and hold short positions at high levels. PX511 is recommended to focus on the range of [6750 - 6850] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices and the expected new device production. The market has expectations for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to expand the PTA processing fee. Buy on dips for intraday short-term [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The arrival and import volumes are still low. The market has expectations for the consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, which supports the price. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, and the price is oscillating weakly [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to short at high levels. EG01 is recommended to focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] [40]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The methanol main contract closed at 2,379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The methanol device maintenance has increased, and the start-up load has decreased slightly. The overseas device load has declined but is still at a high level, and the import volume is high. The demand has slightly stopped falling, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate. The cost support is slightly stable [42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short but focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 is recommended to focus on the range of [2390 - 2420] [44]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply of urea is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of urea is not high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract in the medium to long term [2]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the natural gas price has fallen. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand, and the winter gas storage has supported the price [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in the text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil has rebounded after OPEC+ increased production, but the supply is in excess, and the price is weak. The supply and demand are generally loose, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The new production line has been ignited, and the supply is under pressure. The terminal demand is still weak, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The demand is mostly for rigid needs, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended, and medium to long-term short positions are considered [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Shanghai Aluminum [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: September 10, 2025 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market is currently in a stage of game between macro - expectations and fundamental reality. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut provides macro - benefits, but the degree of fundamental demand recovery still needs to be verified. Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term [11] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2510 contract maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, with a trading volume of 93,249 lots and an open interest of 196,440 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 542,337 lots, an increase of 7,282 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 increased by 2,246 lots [2] 4.2 Spot Market - On September 10, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2510 weakened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton [5] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro News**: The recent global macro - environment shows a mixed situation. US non - farm payrolls growth unexpectedly cooled in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added. The June employment data was revised down to negative growth, and the unemployment rate rose to a new high since 2021 [6] - **Fundamental News**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains high and stable, and the production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling. The demand side is on the verge of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, showing signs of marginal improvement. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has rebounded, but they are still resistant to high - priced aluminum and their purchasing attitude is cautious. As of September 10, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years, providing some support for aluminum prices [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily line of the Shanghai Aluminum 2510 contract fluctuates above the short - term moving average and is still in a box. The MACD yellow and white lines are glued, the trading volume is shrinking, and the long - short game of funds is intense [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly. The US service industry data showed mixed signals, with strong orders but a contracting employment index and high prices. Weak employment data strengthened market expectations of a Fed rate cut. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex copper inventory increased, and domestic social copper inventory rose. Despite the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the consumption peak was not well - reflected in inventory performance. Although there are expectations of fundamental improvement, the upward price movement may be limited by the US recession expectations and high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's复产 rhythm increased, and warehouse receipts began to accumulate, intensifying the oversupply expectation. However, due to factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and China's parade period, there were strong disturbances in the ore end. Downstream sectors started stocking up quickly before the "Golden September" peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. Aluminum industry profits are shifting from upstream to downstream. Under the dual - drive of the Fed rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum, and there is room for the far - month spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. In the new energy sector, ternary demand is strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. With the marginal improvement of nickel - iron and new energy, opportunities for buying at low prices can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data from the US influenced market expectations. Inventory changes were mixed, and the domestic consumption season may boost refined copper consumption, but there are constraints on price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price trends were weak, with changes in inventory and supply - demand relationships. Ore - end disturbances and downstream stocking behavior affected the market, and there were expectations of price increases for electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price declines and inventory changes were observed. Different sectors related to nickel, such as stainless steel and new energy, showed different trends, and there were potential investment opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. For example, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3016 tons [3]. - **Lead**: Some lead product prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included a decrease in LME lead inventory by 3350 tons and an increase in上期所 lead inventory by 982 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory changes were noted, such as an increase in social alumina inventory by 2.1 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related product prices mostly decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in LME nickel inventory by 1080 tons and a decrease in domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 121 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 zinc inventory by 793 tons and a decrease in LME zinc inventory by 475 tons [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 tin inventory by 75 tons and an increase in LME tin inventory by 30 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures is led by Zhan Dapeng, a science master, who serves as the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. The team also includes Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, focusing on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, and there are significant differences in the market. Considering that it's just the beginning of the peak season, even if short - term orders are not ideal, there is still time, so the possibility of a sharp decline is relatively small. Conversely, an upward trend requires positive news to trigger. The short - sellers are waiting for time, while the long - sellers are waiting for news. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 50,000 tons of cotton in July, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,479 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,454 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending cotton inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The overall position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The previous reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the United States and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There is an increasing expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The trade negotiations have been postponed, and the current export tariffs to the United States are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2024/25 season (August estimate) is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expectation of supply - demand balance [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral fundamental situation. Different institutions' reports show varying data on production, consumption, and inventory for the 2025/26 cotton season. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. - Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different data on the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC's August report shows a global production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. USDA's August report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. China's Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, with a basis of 1,196 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in August 2024/25 is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the global production is 25.90 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 25.60 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Forecast**: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the given content.

Report Overview - The report is a copper monthly report for August 2025, released by AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating Report's Core View - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, which will loosen liquidity and open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips, with attention paid to the pressure at the 81,000 yuan mark [6][7] Summaries by Directory 1. Market Outlook - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The overseas focus is on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut. If the rate cut is greater than or equal to 25bps, it is considered bullish; less than 25bps is neutral. The Q3 rate cuts will continue to open up space, and two rate cuts are still expected this year, which will relieve the upward pressure on metals. The euro - zone economic data has improved significantly, and the sustainability of the improvement should be monitored. The domestic economy is generally stable, with the RMB exchange rate strengthening. There is still a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The tight supply of copper mines this year is stronger than last year, and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October also supports copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate strongly, and the operation strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7] 2. Market Review - In August, copper prices maintained a high - level consolidation. On August 1, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut time and rhythm. On the fundamental side, the raw - material supply remained tight. After the implementation of the 232 reciprocal tariffs, the inventory in non - US regions increased slightly, but the inventory - building speed was slow. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, which restricted the upward space [9][10] 3. Macroeconomic Aspect US - In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. Standard & Poor's and Fitch confirmed the US sovereign credit ratings. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing and service PMIs in August were higher than expected. The CPI, core CPI, and PPI in July increased year - on - year. The durable - goods orders decreased month - on - month. After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [14] Euro - zone - The German and French manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in August. The euro - zone's August PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The second - quarter GDP annual rate was in line with expectations. The ECB President said that the current tariff situation was better than the worst - case scenario. The market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year remained stable [16] China - In July, the added value of large - scale industries, social - consumption retail sales, and other economic data showed certain trends. The growth rate of economic data from July to August faced greater pressure, and more policy support was expected. The RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, and once it strengthened, there would be more space for fiscal and monetary policies. It is expected that there will still be a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts [21][26] 4. Fundamental Aspect Supply - In July, China's copper - ore imports increased. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. The spot processing fee for copper concentrates showed a bottom - rebound trend, but the overall rebound was limited, and the tight supply situation remained. Due to the impact of Freeport Indonesia's copper - concentrate exports, the processing fee decreased slightly. Codelco lowered its annual copper - output target [28][32] Inventory - Global copper inventory was affected by tariffs and the domestic peak season. US copper inventory reached a multi - year high, and LME copper inventory increased significantly in July - August. The inventory in bonded areas and the SHFE remained stable. Currently, copper inventory is high, and there may be a possibility of inventory reduction during the peak season from September to October [35] Production - In July, China's refined - copper production decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the tight supply of cold materials. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to supply shortages increased. The import volume of refined copper decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level this year [40] Demand - **Waste copper**: In July, China's waste - copper imports increased more than expected, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [42] - **New energy**: As of the end of July, the installed capacity of new energy power generation increased significantly year - on - year. The investment in power grids increased, which was conducive to copper consumption [47] - **Real estate**: The real - estate market was still weak, but policies in Beijing and Shanghai were optimized, and the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was expected to accelerate urban renewal [51] - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. The production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The full - year sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive copper consumption [55] - **Home appliances**: In July, the production of refrigerators and air - conditioners decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the release of pre - demand, and the production of air - conditioners decreased due to the end of promotions and US tariffs [57]