Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the social financing increased slightly year-on-year, mainly supported by the earlier issuance and higher net financing scale of government bonds compared to the same period in 2025. The credit performance was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in January for the first time since 2018. Both corporate and household medium - and long - term loans were weak, relying mainly on short - term loans. It is expected that this month's social financing will have little impact on the bond market, and it is recommended to continuously track high - frequency credit indicators [1][5][30] Summary by Related Content Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1654 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Direct financing supported the social financing, with a year - on - year increase of 3228 billion yuan to 1.51 trillion yuan. On the contrary, on - balance - sheet financing dragged down the social financing, with a year - on - year decrease of 2334 billion yuan to 4.95 trillion yuan, while off - balance - sheet financing increased slightly year - on - year [1][7] - Among direct financing, government bonds had a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2831 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Corporate bonds increased by 579 billion yuan year - on - year to 5033 billion yuan, the second - highest since 2020 [12] RMB Credit Situation - In January 2026, RMB credit decreased by 4200 billion yuan year - on - year to 4.71 trillion yuan, the first year - on - year decrease in the "good start" month since 2018. The corporate sector decreased by 3300 billion yuan year - on - year, while the household sector increased slightly by 127 billion yuan year - on - year [2][16] - In the corporate sector, only short - term corporate loans increased by 3100 billion yuan year - on - year to 2.05 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 2800 billion yuan year - on - year to 3.18 trillion yuan, with the growth rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 7.58%. Bill financing decreased by 3690 billion yuan year - on - year to - 8739 billion yuan, and the growth rate of bill financing balance dropped to 9.17% [2][19] Money Supply and Deposit Situation - Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (falling in February), the cash - withdrawal demand of residents and enterprises in January was low, resulting in limited growth of M0 and a significant drop in the M0 growth rate to 2.7% [3][24] - In January 2026, the growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, rising from 3.8% and 8.5% in December 2025 to 4.9% and 9% respectively. The maturity of a large amount of time deposits and the increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus may have contributed to the rebound of M1 and M2 [4][24] - In January 2026, corporate deposit increments were significantly higher than the same period in previous years, while household deposit increments were lower. Fiscal deposit increments were also higher than the same period in previous years, possibly due to the higher net financing scale of government bonds. Non - bank deposit increments were high because the stock market was still rising, attracting funds into the market [5][26]

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 社融同比增速放缓，权益基金发行回暖 ——流动性周报 2 月第 3 期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 策略周报 研究所： 风险提示：历史数据仅供参考，样本代表性不足的风险，数据处理统计 方法可能存在误差，基于主观认知划分产生的偏差，外部环境变化影响 结论适用性，指标选取不全面风险。 相关报告 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 袁野》——2026-01-26 1. 本周（2026/02/09-2026/02/13，下同）宏观资金面均衡偏松，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净投放 12089 亿元，开展 10000 亿元 6 个月 买断式逆回购操作。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均小幅下行， 期限利差有所走阔。2026 年 1 月社融规模增量大幅上升至 72208 亿元， 存量同比增长 8.2%，较 2025 年 12 月增速下降 10BP。结构上，新增人 ...

| 2/25 18:00 欧元区1月HCPI、核心HCPI终值 | | | --- | --- | | 2/26 21:30 美国截至2月21日当周初请失业金人数 | | | 2/27 21:30 美国1月PPI、核心PPI | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 股指期货全景日报 2026 ...

第二，80年代"万元户"的消费范围较窄。当时，你就算是"万元户"可供老百姓消费的范围也是比较有限的，即使手里有钱也很难快速花完。而2026年的"万 元户"则不同了，现在即使有120-150万存款，如果真的要把这笔钱花掉，完全可以在短时间内把这笔钱全花完。比如，可以购买手机、汽车、电脑、奢侈品 等商品。显然，现在的"万元户"可以轻而易举的快速回到解放前。 2026年的春节长假已经过半了，有不少网友都在讨论一个话题：就是2026年，家里有多少存款，才算得上80年代的"万元户"？对此，有业内人士表示：不能 简单看数字，而是要综合考虑购买力、收入水平、资产价值和社会地位等多个维度。而事实上，不同的参照物给出的答案是不同的，并且还存在着很大的差 异。 比如，有人拿80年代的大米、猪肉等基础食品价格进行比较，发现涨幅约20-30倍。于是，就得出结论现在存款20-30万，相当于80年代的"万元户"。但也有 人觉得，中国m2从1985年到2024年增长了近600倍，按此计算，现在1万元相当于80年代的600万元。不过，单纯拿大米和猪肉等基本食品价格，以及m2作 为参照物，似乎也并不是太靠谱。 现在最主流的参照物是工资收入为基 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The financing environment is improving, with a significant increase in social financing in January, reaching 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1.662 billion yuan more than the same period last year [4]. - The growth rates of M2 and M1 have increased to 9.0% and 4.9% respectively, indicating a favorable liquidity environment [4]. - The new average interest rates for corporate loans and personal housing loans remain low at approximately 3.2% and 3.1% respectively [4]. - The focus of credit is shifting towards structural optimization, with an emphasis on supporting small and medium enterprises, technology innovation, and green finance [4]. - The policy environment remains supportive, with stable loan interest rates and a potential easing of pressure on bank interest margins in the near future [5]. Summary by Sections Financing Data - As of the end of January, the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the stock of RMB loans grew by 6.1% [4]. - The structure of new financing shows strong performance in government bonds and short-term loans, with government bonds increasing by 976.4 billion yuan [4]. Credit Structure - The credit growth is expected to focus on consumption and operational sectors, with a tilt towards small and medium enterprises and technology sectors [4]. - The increase in M2 is attributed to strong government bond issuance and seasonal effects from wealth management products [4]. Interest Rate Environment - The central bank's recent rate cuts on structural policy tools are expected to have a limited direct impact on bank margins but reflect a supportive stance [5]. - The current low interest rate environment is favorable for bank margins, with expectations that the downward pressure on margins will be less significant in 2025 and 2026 compared to 2024 [5].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing (社融) increased by 7.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2 trillion RMB[7] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year[7] - Government bonds and undiscounted bills were the main supports for the increase in social financing[7] Group 2: Loan Trends - Both medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease, while short-term loans increased for both sectors[7] - New loans in January amounted to 4.7 trillion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 trillion RMB year-on-year[7] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 both showed a year-on-year increase, with M1 at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%[7] - Non-bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a trend towards liquidity in deposits[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year-on-year growth of social financing may face downward pressure as the base increases towards July, but is expected to remain above 7%[7] - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 expected to stay above 7%[7] Group 5: Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially affecting credit growth and social financing[9] - Uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could impact China's monetary policy[9]

Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new social financing (社融) reached 72,200 billion RMB, an increase of 1,654 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,200 billion RMB compared to the previous year[4] Loan Structure and Trends - In January, the structure of new loans showed that long-term loans to households increased by 3,469 billion RMB, down 1,466 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 1,097 billion RMB, up 1,594 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate long-term loans decreased by 2,800 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased significantly by 3,100 billion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate was 9.0%, up from 8.5% in the previous month, while M1 growth rate rose to 4.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[5] - In January, RMB deposits increased by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions[5] Market Dynamics and Implications - The government bond net financing in January was 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, serving as a core support for social financing[3] - The active stock market has contributed to the increase in M2 growth, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards equity investments[11] Economic Outlook - The weak "opening red" effect of credit growth suggests that the anticipated recovery in the real estate market may not meet expectations[16] - The demand for medium- to long-term loans remains weak, indicating ongoing concerns about economic recovery and internal demand[10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1,450 billion yuan reverse repo operation on February 13, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,135 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 315 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [3][5] - In February, the central bank has conducted a total of 18,000 billion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 600 billion yuan after considering 12,000 billion yuan in maturing repos, marking an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3] Group 2: Market Liquidity - The interbank market is experiencing a very loose liquidity environment, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 declining nearly 10 basis points to a low of 1.26%, and similar declines observed in DR007 and DR014 [5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.65% [6] Group 3: Financial Instruments - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.58%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds increased by 0.04%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts decreased by 0.10%, 0.09%, and 0.03% respectively [13] Group 4: Credit and Financing Data - In January, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a total social financing scale of 449.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [14] - The M2 money supply grew by 9% year-on-year, while M1 and M0 increased by 4.9% and 2.7% respectively, with a net cash injection of 519.1 billion yuan in January [14] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of state-owned enterprises in contributing to high-quality economic development and social responsibility [14] - Recent notices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges address inaccuracies in investor education regarding bond repurchase agreements, outlining regulatory requirements and deadlines for rectification [15]