Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In October, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase. The impact of maintenance of petroleum benzene plants is expected to decline, and the operating load of North China hydrobenzene plants has gradually recovered to a neutral level after the end of production restrictions in early September, with stable operation expected in the future. New plants for downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with the converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene, indicating a medium - to long - term improvement in supply - demand trends. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance cycle, limiting the growth space of pure benzene demand. Recently, international oil prices have fallen and rebounded due to factors such as OPEC's slight increase in production, concerns about economic growth caused by the U.S. government shutdown, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand situation is difficult to improve. Technically, BZ2603 has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD green bar has widened, but the single - day K - line has a long lower shadow. Pay attention to the support near 5682 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5763 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the settlement price is 5732 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. The trading volume is 5189 lots, down 394 lots; the open interest is 12994 lots, up 615 lots. The mainstream price in the East China market is 5860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China market is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 5700 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu is 5825 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Shanxi is 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 699 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 709.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.38 US dollars/barrel, up 1.05 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 45.7 tons, up 0.16 tons. The port inventory at the end of the week is 10.6 tons, down 0.1 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.24%, down 0.2 percentage points; the caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the phenol capacity utilization rate is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the aniline capacity utilization rate is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the adipic acid capacity utilization rate is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the pure benzene capacity utilization rate increased by 1.22% to 79.27% week - on - week, and the hydrobenzene capacity utilization rate increased by 4.05% to 63.99% week - on - week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.24% to 76.37% week - on - week. As of October 9th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.7%. From September 19th to 25th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 419 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Group 1: Sugar (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Volatile [1] Core View - After the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures may rebound slightly, but there is strong resistance above, and the upside space is limited. The expected good production in major producing countries still suppresses the upward movement of sugar prices. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, SR601 closed at 5,479 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02%, and at 5,493 yuan/ton in the night session; SR605 closed at 5,437 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.09%, and at 5,458 yuan/ton in the night session. [1] - **Important Information**: - The closing price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/lb, with a daily decrease of 1.92%; the closing price of the London white sugar main contract was 451.3 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.57%. [1] - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar before the holiday was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. [1] - In September, Brazil exported 3,245,837.61 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The average daily export volume was 147,538.07 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%. [1] - In the first half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. [1] - On September 30, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,968, a daily decrease of 13. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on sugar long positions opportunely and wait for opportunities to short at high prices. [1] Group 2: Red Dates (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Volatile [3] Core View - Before the large - scale harvest of red dates, the futures market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the game on the opening price of new dates and the trends of long and short funds. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, CJ601 closed at 10,820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%; CJ605 closed at 10,865 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%. [3] - **Important Information**: - As of September 26, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. [3] - Before the holiday, the reference price of special - grade red dates in the Hebei market was 10.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates was stable. [3] - Before the holiday, 3 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, the same as the previous day. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat the CJ601 contract as volatile in the short term, and recommend high - selling and low - buying. In the medium - to - long term, short far - month contracts at high prices. [3] Group 3: Rubber (Sector: Energy, Chemical) Report Industry Investment Rating - Rubber: Volatile and Weak [4] Core View - After the holiday, the domestic rubber futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile. Although there is some support from the heavy rainfall in Thailand, the overseas rubber market does not provide obvious support, and the domestic fundamentals remain unchanged. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: As of September 30, RU2601 closed at 15,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.61%; NR2511 closed at 12,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.04%; BR2511 closed at 11,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.79%. [4] - **Important Information**: - In September, the average monthly price of Thai latex was 55.79 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%; the average monthly price of cup lump was 51.46 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. [4] - In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 52.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47%. [4] - As of September 28, 2025, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 million tons to 38.71 million tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%. [4] - In September, the average monthly price of Shanghai full - latex was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average monthly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 458 yuan/ton from the previous month. [4] - In September, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.35 percentage points. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see as the rubber fundamentals currently lack positive support. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene will increase both domestically and through imports. The non - styrene downstream demand lacks support, and the demand in the styrene chain is expected to deteriorate. Pure benzene will remain in surplus, its valuation is difficult to repair and may even be further compressed, which will also drag down the price center of styrene. [1] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September, and is expected to increase continuously after the new plants are put into operation in mid - to - late October. The demand is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". From the balance sheet, styrene will maintain a tight balance from September to November, but its high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene make it prone to decline and difficult to rise. [1] - Price range judgment: BZ (5500, 6300); EB (6500, 7300). The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies on a single - side basis and widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene on dips for inter - commodity trading. [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the styrene market first rose and then fell, with the leading factors for both the rise and fall being raw material pure benzene. [1] - In the second quarter, styrene prices fluctuated, and several significant rallies and declines were affected by macro factors. [2] - In the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene weakened, and the market fluctuations further narrowed. Under macro disturbances, the market mostly followed the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side prices. [2] - In mid - July, with policy announcements such as "anti - involution" and the investigation of old petrochemical plants, the macro became the trading focus again, and the market followed the raw material end to oscillate upwards. After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the macro sentiment cooled, and the market declined. [2] - In late August, the terminal demand expectation deteriorated, the market's confidence in this year's peak season weakened, and new plant products impacted the market. The port inventory increased against the season, and the market broke through the support level and fell. [2] 3.2 Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.2.1 Valuation Situation - Pure benzene: At the end of the second quarter, it was expected that there would be a supply - demand gap of about 1.35 million tons in the third quarter, and the valuation might have a phased repair opportunity. However, in reality, the new production capacity was basically balanced, and due to weak demand, the valuation remained at a historical low. In the fourth quarter, supply will increase, demand will be weak, and the valuation is difficult to repair. [5] - Styrene: At the end of the second quarter, it was predicted that the profit in the styrene segment would be compressed, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene would narrow. In fact, the spread has been compressed, and currently, it is difficult for the spread to further narrow in the short term. In the future, the space for the spread to narrow or widen is limited. [5][7] 3.2.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Domestic Supply**: In the third quarter, 1.44 million tons of pure benzene production capacity was put into operation, and the total domestic capacity reached 27.82 million tons. About 0.84 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 11.39%. As of August, the cumulative production in 2025 was 14.6787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The monthly production in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 2 million tons. [10] - **Import**: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly. The average monthly import from January to August was 460,000 tons, a 28.1% increase compared to the previous year. In the fourth quarter, due to the off - season of aromatics blending for gasoline in the US and the need for Europe to find a destination for its surplus pure benzene, the import is expected to be 480,000 - 500,000 tons per month, and the annual import volume is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, a 26.1% increase from the initial forecast. [15][16] - **Demand**: In 2025, except for styrene and caprolactam, the consumption growth rates of other major downstream products of pure benzene slowed down. The downstream comprehensive profit has been in a loss state for a long time. In the fourth quarter, the demand support from non - styrene downstream is weak. For example, caprolactam is facing high inventory in the industrial chain, and aniline is affected by anti - dumping and tariff policies. Phenol and adipic acid industries are in surplus, with only rigid demand. [22][27][30] - **Invisible Inventory**: In 2025, the port inventory decreased before the Spring Festival due to downstream stocking. After the Spring Festival, the high imports led to the accumulation of invisible inventory. In late September, downstream factories stocked up for the National Day holiday, and the invisible inventory reached a new high. [35] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, while the demand is weak, resulting in a continuous surplus. [37] 3.2.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, there was no new styrene production capacity, only a 90,000 - ton capacity increase from the expansion of some plants. In the third quarter, 680,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation. In the fourth quarter, two 600,000 - ton plants are planned to be put into operation, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 8.86%. In September, supply tightened, and it is expected to increase after mid - to - late October. [39][40] - **Demand**: In the traditional off - season of July - August, the demand for 3S was relatively resilient due to new plant startups and pre - locked orders. However, terminal white - goods demand was affected by policies and tariffs, and the inventory of downstream products has accumulated. The demand for styrene is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". [46][52] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward movement. [58] 3.3 Chapter 4: Core Concerns - **Pure Benzene Supply Changes**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply is expected to remain high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned production cuts in domestic and foreign plants due to continuous valuation compression. [61] - **Regional Styrene Supply - Demand**: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant, Shandong has a styrene surplus and has become a price depression. Currently, focus on the operations of major plants in Shandong and the regional price spread between Shandong and East China. After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical's styrene plants in October, pay attention to regional prices and logistics changes. [62] - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: In the short term, the提货 volume of pure benzene ports increased, and the paper - goods price and Sinopec's pure benzene listed price declined. The market interprets the increase in styrene maintenance losses as negative for pure benzene. [63] - **Long - Term Trading Logic**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply will remain high, and it will be weak without macro - level support, dragging down styrene prices. Styrene's supply - demand situation is better than that of pure benzene, but high inventory and pure benzene's weakness make it prone to decline. The terminal demand expectation is poor, and macro factors should also be monitored. [64][65]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up by 0.61% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in August 2025 is -2.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3759 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Recent price changes include rebar down by 1.22%, cement price index up by 2.51%, rubber up by 0.34%, coking coal up by 2.78%, and iron ore up by 0.25% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires have changed by +0.51 percentage points, -1.00 percentage points, +7.3 percentage points, and +0.06 percentage points respectively [5] - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in mid-September decreased by 0.67% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass have increased by 0.15% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit margins at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1163 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 3.29%, and aluminum down by 0.05%, with corresponding profit margins showing mixed results [7] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 73.58%, down by 0.08 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic copper has reached a new high since June at 82680 yuan/ton, up by 3.29% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 20830 yuan/ton, with estimated profits of 3665 yuan/ton, up by 2.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 269000 yuan/ton, down by 2.00% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low for the year at 84 times [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 130 yuan/ton, up by 18.18% from last week [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1087.41 points, down by 2.93% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.40%, down by 0.50 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals at +5.15% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is at 33.74% and 88.92% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of companies involved in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is closely linked to the current supply-demand imbalance in the industry, particularly driven by increasing demand from the energy storage sector [1][3]. Industry Summary - On September 29, stocks of Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy experienced significant increases, with Wanrun New Energy reaching a 20% limit-up and Hunan Youneng rising over 10% [1]. - Other companies specializing in LFP, such as Longpan Technology, Defang Nano, Fulian Precision, and Anda Technology, also saw considerable stock price increases [1]. - The monthly production of LFP is expected to show a consistent upward trend through 2025, benefiting from sustained demand, especially in the energy storage sector [3]. - A survey of 31 major LFP shipping companies revealed that 7 companies have a capacity utilization rate exceeding 100%, while 9 companies are operating at 80-95% capacity [4]. - The current market dynamics have shifted from a previous scenario of accepting all orders to a more selective approach by LFP suppliers, who are now choosing customers based on pricing and payment terms [6][8]. Pricing and Supply Dynamics - Suppliers are increasingly rejecting low-priced and long-term payment customers, opting instead for higher-paying clients [8][13]. - Some suppliers are fully booked and are exhibiting selective customer behavior, which has allowed weaker suppliers to secure more orders [9]. - Given the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, LFP material suppliers are initiating price increases, with one supplier raising processing fees by approximately 1,500 yuan per ton [10]. - Major suppliers are also notifying customers of price hikes due to a surge in new orders and limited production capacity [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, asphalt continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. It followed the rise of crude oil, but the shipping resistance significantly increased, and the factory inventory accumulation rate increased month - on - month. In the short term, the valuation of asphalt may be weaker than that of crude oil. Attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was 3,621 - 3,631 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding the reverse spread for the inter - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. Although some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns and production cuts, the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianze, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, led to the increase in capacity utilization [4]. - **Demand**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong had the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream construction demand. East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production of major refineries and the preference of traders for low - cost resources in social warehouses [4]. - **Valuation**: The BU futures fluctuated and strengthened with crude oil, while the spot price remained stable. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt decreased, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The prices in Southwest, South China, Shandong, and East China showed a downward trend, while the price in North China increased slightly [4]. 2. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, and there are also impacts from import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight [7]. - **Futures - Market Price and Trading Positions**: The report presents data on the trading positions of asphalt futures, the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil, the spread between BU and SC, and the warehouse receipts of BU in different regions [9][10][11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions, the price differences between regions, and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report provides historical data on the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, as well as the calendar spread data [15][16][17]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [22]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 9.0% month - on - month. Shandong had the most significant increase, while East China had the largest decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [25]. - **Supply** - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.35 million tons. From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total production was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of 54 asphalt samples increased by 0.9%, and the social inventory of 104 samples decreased by 1.8% [31]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: It presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the total inventory rate of the asphalt market over the years [43][44][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in future oil prices, and the demand side lacks significant growth potential. Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of PTA are stronger than those of PX, with PXN expected to run weakly and PTA processing fees having a slight recovery [3]. - Short - term ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory and a far - month inventory accumulation expectation [4]. - In the short term, pure benzene demand support is weak, BZN weakens, and styrene oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production increase policy, and non - OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase. Geopolitically, Russian energy facilities have been attacked, and there is a possibility of upgraded sanctions by Europe and the United States [3]. - Demand side: It lacks significant growth potential drivers. The market has anticipated the supply increase, but inventory has not significantly accumulated, and the risk of oversupply needs verification [3]. - Price forecast: Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates are at a high level, and the PX - naphtha spread has weakened. PXN is expected to run weakly due to factors such as high - level naphtha prices and lackluster downstream performance [3][7]. - PTA: There have been many changes in PTA devices. The processing fees have been slightly repaired, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, and the short - term fundamentals are stronger than those of PX [3]. MEG - Supply: The weekly MEG capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly increased, but it is difficult to be sustained within the month. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month [4][17]. - Demand: The downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the demand in the traditional peak season has slightly improved, but the industry chain has a cautious expectation for future demand [4]. - Price forecast: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [4]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The pure benzene capacity utilization rate is at a high level, with large supply pressure due to new capacity. The downstream demand support is weak, and BZN weakens [4][28]. - Styrene: The styrene capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There will be new capacity released in September - October, and the supply is expected to gradually increase. The demand side is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][28]. Polyester Industry - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry has decreased slightly, while the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased. The terminal weaving orders have increased, and the factory inventory has decreased [23]. - Demand expectation: The downstream demand has improved, but the industry chain is cautious about future demand due to unclear trends in tariffs and exchange rates [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Futures continued to be weak, dampening market sentiment. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a decline in spot prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand. The market was in a state of low - level weak oscillation due to limited demand drive and insufficient market confidence [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7105 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.67%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase in positions by 8837 lots to 589,676 lots. PP2601 closed at 6842 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan (-0.77%), with an increase in positions by 7134 lots to 654,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - side**: For polypropylene, the upstream maintenance level exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH plants continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating supply - side pressure. Some maintenance plants will restart this week, and output may increase month - on - month. For PE, the maintenance volume declined from the high level, and the supply pressure increased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand - side**: Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other fields remained flat. The peak - season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and orders were at a relatively low level year - on - year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a situation of "peak season without prosperity", which had limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of social inventory in the middle stream was slow, and it was difficult to push up prices [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The expectation of interest rate cuts was implemented, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There was still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products near the double festivals, but due to insufficient market confidence, there was no large - scale replenishment behavior, and the demand drive was limited [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price weakened and declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market supply trend increased, and producers still had the intention to sell at a discounted price. The propylene quotations mostly declined slightly, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The low - end transactions in the market were acceptable [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The new orders of downstream factories were limited, and the pre - festival procurement enthusiasm was insufficient. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, in East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, L basis, and PP basis, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14]