Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,700 in the short - term. Next week, due to the slight delay of Maoming Petrochemical's maintenance until the end of the month and the gradual output after the restart of Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical's devices, the production enterprise inventory is expected to increase, while the trading enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to decline further as the number of maintenance days of the maintenance enterprises increases next week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,365, with a week - on - week decrease of 32. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,980 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $62.71 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.45; WTI crude oil is at $58.49 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.55. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $584.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $7.5. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $740 per ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $790 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.314 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219,000 pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons or 5.22% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 15.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, while net profit reached 330 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. However, the estimated net profit for Q3 2025 is 24 million, down 83% from 143 million in the same period last year [1][2]. Industry Overview - The cement industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with national cement production in the first three quarters of 2025 at 1.259 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. In September alone, production was 154 million tons, down 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - In the Guangdong and Guangxi markets, cement production growth rates for the first three quarters were -2.3% and -1.8%, respectively, which is better than the national average [1]. Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's total cement and clinker sales were 39.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, indicating a decline greater than the industry average. The average price was 232 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan year-on-year [1]. - Concrete sales increased by 26% to 10.46 million cubic meters, with an average price of 296 yuan per cubic meter, down 38 yuan year-on-year [1]. - Aggregate sales reached 58.59 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with an average price of 34.7 yuan per ton, down approximately 2 yuan year-on-year [1]. Financial Metrics - The company's overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.9%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 15.2% in the same period of 2024. This increase was primarily due to a decrease in the cost of cement product sales compared to 2024, although it was partially offset by a decline in gross margins for aggregates and other segments [2]. - The gross margins for cement products, concrete, and aggregates were 17.1%, 14.7%, and 25.4%, respectively, compared to 12.6%, 12.4%, and 38.6% in 2024 [2]. - Operating expenses, particularly management fees, have increased overall [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that supply-side governance will provide price recovery elasticity. The cement industry is focusing on overproduction governance, which may lead to the elimination of some production capacity. Strict adherence to approved production capacity could optimize production order and improve actual capacity utilization [2]. - For 2025-2026, the expected net profits are 510 million and 830 million, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 21 and 13 times, respectively, with a buy rating [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range estimated to be around 2300 - 2410. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to rise quarter - on - quarter. Although the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories has decreased significantly, the pressure is still relatively high. The cost has increased due to the strong thermal coal price, and the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed. The decline in the alumina plant's operating load is not significant, and the supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is relatively loose with a stable market price. The current high basis of the main contract reflects the market's expectation of weak future supply and demand, which awaits verification [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan. The position of the main contract of caustic soda is 136,689 hands, an increase of 742 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 18,733 hands, a decrease of 8,515 hands. The trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 363,722 hands, an increase of 5,442 hands. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan, and the closing price of the May contract is 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2468.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan, and the spot price of alumina is 2795 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter to 84.8%. From November 1 to 7, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.61% quarter - on - quarter to 85.25%. From October 31 to November 6, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.04% quarter - on - quarter to 89.60%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.26% quarter - on - quarter to 68.06%. As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.29% compared with last week to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased to 464 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jia De Li Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. has received acceptance for its IPO application, showcasing significantly higher profit margins compared to its peers, raising questions about the sustainability of its reported capacity utilization rates and the implications of its increasing construction projects [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Jia De Li's revenue for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 were 550 million, 528 million, 734 million, and 367 million respectively, with net profits of 192 million, 141 million, 238 million, and 125 million, indicating a decline in 2023 followed by a projected increase in 2024 [2][5]. - The company's gross profit margins for the same periods were 49.29%, 41.91%, 46.29%, and 48.79%, significantly higher than the industry averages of 41.31%, 33.22%, 32.88%, and 36.85% [2][3]. - Net profit margins were reported at 34.97%, 26.66%, 32.42%, and 33.99%, while the average for comparable companies was much lower at 16.26%, 10.54%, 10.65% [3][4]. Cost Management - Jia De Li's selling expenses were 2.6647 million, 3.0174 million, 4.8748 million, and 1.47 million, representing 0.48%, 0.57%, 0.66%, and 0.40% of revenue, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.37% to 1.44% [4]. - Management expenses were 17.4068 million, 28.2156 million, 27.9604 million, and 15.7799 million, accounting for 3.16%, 5.34%, 3.81%, and 4.29% of revenue, also below the industry averages [4][5]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses were 21.3174 million, 21.7237 million, 23.884 million, and 12.0019 million, with ratios of 3.88%, 4.11%, 3.25%, and 3.27%, showing a decline below industry averages in recent years [5]. - The decrease in R&D spending raises questions about whether Jia De Li's high profit margins are driven by innovation or other factors [5]. Capacity Utilization - Reported capacity utilization rates were 107.74%, 99.52%, 102.89%, and 105.81%, but these figures are based on "standardized output" rather than actual production, leading to concerns about the accuracy of these metrics [6][8]. - If calculated using actual production, the capacity utilization rates would drop to approximately 80%, indicating a significant discrepancy in reported performance [8]. Construction Projects - The company's construction projects have seen a substantial increase, with in-progress projects rising from 78 million to 339 million within six months, primarily due to investments in new production lines [5][9]. IPO Details - Jia De Li plans to issue no less than 45.9075 million shares, aiming to raise 725 million for new production facilities and working capital [9]. - Prior to the IPO application, the company brought in four external investors through a capital increase, with a valuation of approximately 3.65 billion [9].

Core Viewpoint - LeShuShi Limited, known as the "King of Diapers in Africa," officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 10, 2023, with a first-day stock price increase of 25.95% [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 2009, LeShuShi is a multinational hygiene products company focused on the development, manufacturing, and sales of baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [1]. - The company began local production in Ghana in 2018 and has since expanded its sales network to over 30 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia [1]. Group 2: Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, LeShuShi ranks first in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets by volume, with market shares of 20.3% and 15.6%, respectively, and ranks second by revenue with shares of 17.2% and 11.9% [2]. - The company operates multiple brands, with Softcare positioned as a mid-to-high-end brand targeting consumers seeking quality products [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue from baby diapers during the reporting period was $251 million, $324 million, $342 million, and $116 million, accounting for 78.4%, 78.7%, 75.3%, and 71.8% of total revenue, respectively [3]. - The company reported total revenues of $320 million, $411 million, $454 million, and $161 million during the reporting period, with net profits of $18.4 million, $64.7 million, $95.1 million, and $31.1 million [5]. Group 4: Regional Sales and Growth - Approximately 90% of LeShuShi's revenue comes from the African market, with West Africa and East Africa contributing significantly to sales [4]. - The company has seen a revenue increase due to rising demand for hygiene products in emerging markets, driven by a large population base and high birth rates [5]. Group 5: Cost Structure and Profitability - The gross profit margins for the reporting periods were 23.0%, 34.9%, 35.2%, and 33.6%, while net profit margins were 5.7%, 15.7%, 20.9%, and 19.3% [6]. - The increase in gross margin is attributed to a decline in raw material prices, which also helped reduce foreign exchange losses [6]. Group 6: Operational Efficiency - The company has eight production facilities across Africa, with a total designed capacity of 6.301 billion baby diapers annually [13]. - The capacity utilization rates for baby diapers were 78.3%, 81.5%, 77.9%, and 67.2% during the reporting periods, indicating room for improvement in production efficiency [13]. Group 7: Shareholder Returns and Governance - The controlling shareholders, Shen Yanchang and Yang Yanjuan, received dividends totaling $3.24 million (approximately 16.6 million yuan) prior to the IPO [12]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the high ownership percentage of the controlling shareholders, which may lead to governance issues and potential conflicts of interest in dividend decisions [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that the path for rate cuts may be limited due to high levels of capacity utilization and persistently high inflation expected to continue into the next year [1] Economic Indicators - Elevated levels of capacity utilization in the economy are noted, suggesting that the economy is operating near its potential [1] - The outlook includes inflation rates that are described as uncomfortably high, which is expected to last well into the next year [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of asphalt is expected to remain weak due to the weak operation of crude oil, the fading of the peak season for asphalt fundamentals, and the negative sentiment driven by price cuts in Shandong [4]. - The recommended strategies are: 1) The single - side trend is weak; 2) No specific suggestion for inter - period trading; 3) Hold a short position in BU and a long position in SC [4]. 3) Summaries by Directory Overview - Supply: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29.7%, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period. This was mainly due to production cuts at some refineries and intermittent shutdowns at others [4]. - Demand: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 445,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous period. Shandong was the only region with an increase in shipments, while the most significant decrease was in East China [4]. - Valuation: The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 593.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,352 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan/ton from the previous period. Six regions saw price drops, with Shandong having the highest decline of 4.3% [4]. Price & Spread - Cost structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and different types of crude oils. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields, for example, the yield of Venezuelan Merey crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - Price data: There are multiple price - related charts, including futures - market price and trading volume, and spot - market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Merey crude oil, as well as various price spreads and basis data [11][12]. Fundamental Data - Demand: - Consumption distribution: The demand for asphalt comes from road construction, road maintenance, waterproofing, shipping fuel, coking, and exports. Road construction includes different types of roads, and various factors such as policies, funds, and seasonal factors affect demand [18]. - Shipment volume: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 445,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous period. Shandong was the only region with an increase, and East China had the most significant decrease [22]. - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 11.9%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period and a 1.3% decrease year - on - year [22]. - Supply: - Supply pattern: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries and imports. Refineries can be classified by attribute (state - owned or private) and region. Key supply indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [23]. - Production, maintenance, and raw materials: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 685,000 tons, a 2.4% increase from November 3. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1,209,000 tons, a 3.9% decrease from November 3 [26]. -开工率: There are charts showing the weekly开工率 of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, including the overall开工率 and those in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [28][30]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions and overall [37].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: November 9, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased. In the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, without chasing short positions. The nr - br spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][4]. - Butadiene is in a weak operating state. In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream replenishment, leading to improved trading and price stabilization. In the medium - long term, supply pressure remains the primary contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Zhenhua New Materials were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate further declined. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and the production capacity utilization rate was 66.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88 percentage points. It is expected that Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant will restart in the next cycle, and the Maoming butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant are scheduled for maintenance at the end of November and in December respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain stable with a slight downward trend in the next cycle. The production of most enterprises will remain stable to meet order demands, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of alternative demand, the current spread between the nr - br main contracts remains high, and the alternative demand also remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15%. During the cycle, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, and the negotiation focus continued to decline. Under the continuous negative drag of the cost side, industry players generally had a clear expectation of the continuous decline of the recent market. Downstream price - pressing procurement led to a significant decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. At the same time, the output was affected by the maintenance of some production enterprises, the circulating supply of goods was limited, resulting in the spot offer being significantly higher than that of private resources, and the sales performance was blocked. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 10,400 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower - end valuation to the nr - br spread providing support for the lower - end valuation. For the upper - end valuation, 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton on the futures market may be the high point of the fundamental upper - end valuation. When the main contract BR2501 has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the single - month holding cost is around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting futures on the market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upside space of the futures market [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In the current cycle (from October 31 to November 6, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 109,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 4.85%. During the week, the plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical remained shut down, but the plants of Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in a continuous increase in output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,500 tons, continuing to increase from the current cycle. There are no new plant shutdown and maintenance plans in the next cycle, and the previously restarted plants will stably release output, leading to a continuous recovery of the output of domestic operating plants. At the same time, pay close attention to the output of Guangxi Petrochemical [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as butadiene plants undergo maintenance in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber procurement will decrease. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only be maintained at a constant level, with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the rigid demand for butadiene procurement remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (from October 30 to November 6, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% from last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.71% month - on - month compared with last week. During the cycle, some plants resumed production, and at the same time, the significant decline in the market led to a slowdown in the trading rhythm, resulting in inventory accumulation for some suppliers. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 6.88% month - on - month compared with last week. Although there were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the normal consumption of downstream raw material inventories led to a decrease in the inventory of sample ports. Although the short - term tradable supply is limited, the import volume remains high, and merchants' sentiment remains cautious. Pay attention to future inventory changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the Company") is scheduled for a review meeting on November 14, 2025, to discuss its performance forecast for 2025, which indicates a potential decline in revenue and net profit compared to previous years [1][3]. Financial Performance - The Company has experienced a decline in revenue for two consecutive years, with significant fluctuations in gross profit margins, which were 13.27%, 15.04%, 18.83%, and 17.49% from 2022 to 2025 [3][4]. - For 2025, the Company forecasts revenue between 2.2 billion to 2.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year change of -6.91% to 1.56%, and net profit between 140 million to 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -3.64% to 10.13% [4][5]. Business Operations - The Company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new fertilizers and their intermediates, including humic acid-enhanced fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers [2]. - The Company has a diverse customer base, including major agricultural input companies and government clients, which has led to an increase in accounts receivable, reaching 387 million yuan by the end of the reporting period [7]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The Company has a low production capacity utilization rate, below 60%, while still planning to expand production capacity significantly [9][10]. - The Company plans to raise funds for new projects, including a 300,000-ton humic acid intelligent high-tower compound fertilizer project and a 150,000-ton bio-fertilizer production line [9]. Corporate Governance and Financial Management - The Company’s major shareholder is Mingquan Investment, controlled by Ma Xuewen and his son, who collectively hold 76.10% of the shares [11]. - Despite a significant cash dividend of 180 million yuan in 2022, the Company plans to raise 40 million yuan to supplement its working capital, raising questions about its financial management strategy [13][14].