Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production are putting downward pressure on prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The cost side is divergent (iron ore is strong, while coking coal and coke are weak). The real estate demand continues to decline, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside potential. However, the anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical events, market sentiment is relatively cautious. The daily line on the disk has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected to consolidate in a weak and volatile manner [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The rebar futures main contract increased its open interest by 43,067 lots on Monday, with slightly higher trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 697,016 lots. During the day, it declined with increasing positions, reaching a low of 3097 yuan/ton, a high of 3135 yuan/ton, and closing at 3104 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.74% [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price to a certain extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% higher than the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 85,000 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, 44,000 tons less than the same period last year. This week's production continued to rise due to the marginal improvement in steel mill profitability, reduced incentive to cut production, and the resumption of some blast furnaces. The supply contraction situation was marginally alleviated, and subsequent pressure emerged [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure. The new construction area of real estate continued to decline, infrastructure provided some support but with limited increments, and steel consumption in the manufacturing industry was stable but could not change the overall weak situation [2] Inventory - Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Among them, the social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, declining for 12 consecutive weeks and reaching a three - year low. The steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low, providing strong support. The inventory accumulation inflection point was expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival. The steel mill inventory changed from an increase to a decrease, and the social inventory continued to decline, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure in the circulation link [3] Macroeconomic - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city - specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." In general, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Cost - The risk of raw material price fluctuations increased. Coke prices had been lowered in four rounds, weakening cost support. Iron ore prices were strong, but inventory levels were high. Scrap steel prices were relatively stable, providing support for electric furnace costs [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low with continued reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slower inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnace production, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, a decline in iron ore prices from high levels, weakening cost support, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and enhanced macro - confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly, but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although the current market is in the off - season of consumption, iron ore's 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend. It is also recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the total production of the five major varieties rose month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil continued to rise. Due to the significant decline in steel mills' gross profit and the off - season of consumption, steel mills' production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices has increased the cost support for the market [2]. - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly on the daily K - line chart but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - **Data details**: The closing price of the rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill furnace production and profit conditions, production, inventory, spot market transactions, apparent demand, and futures warehouse receipts all have corresponding data changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. - **Data details**: Include spot and futures prices, basis and futures monthly spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrival and port - clearance volumes, inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipts [5]. Industry News - Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has officially entered the charging period, initially covering six product categories such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, and planning to expand to about 180 steel and aluminum - intensive downstream products by 2028 [7]. - The steel industry PMI in December 2025 was 46.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a continued tightening of the industry's operation [8]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that coking coal options will be listed for trading starting from January 16, 2026 [8]. - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented [8]. - There are also various inventory data and production data of steel and other products from different statistical sources [8][9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong at a high level in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop in mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, as the New Year holiday approaches, market trading is light. After the December 9 - 10 meeting, six policymakers opposed interest rate cuts, and the Fed's next meeting is on January 27 - 28, with investors expecting rates to remain unchanged [2] - On the supply side, new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and a new project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, so the daily output is expected to continue to increase [3] - High prices inhibit downstream demand, and with increased environmental control in the Central Plains, some local aluminum processing enterprises have shut down, and the spot demand has shrunk, with production expected to resume after the New Year's Day holiday, and the开工 rate has declined [3] - The comprehensive PMI of China's aluminum processing industry in December was 42.4%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a contraction cycle. Among them, the PMI of the aluminum plate and strip industry was 36.3%, hitting a new low [3] - On Monday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 645,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have mostly completed long - term order signing. Attention should be paid to possible alumina enterprise production cuts due to profit compression, and electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in in 2026 is positive. The steel market is in the off - season with inventory reduction, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. The iron ore has high inventory and potential storage fee pressure, and the coke and coal markets are affected by factors such as production resumption expectations and supply - demand changes. The glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The iron water output is basically stable, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the upstream - downstream game is strong. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, and the port trading volume has increased [2][9]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is high, and the restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut of leading steel enterprises in East China [2][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization. After the four - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the downstream winter storage replenishment starts, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten [2][13]. - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][13]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: With the expected new supply in Inner Mongolia, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is expected to be further loosened. The cost still supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [3][18]. - Ferrosilicon: Low supply and low inventory support the price of ferrosilicon, but the price cut of coke restricts its upward space. The demand has not increased significantly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high, and the supply - demand is currently in excess. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14]. - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. With steel mill profits dropping and the consumption peak passing, steel mill output is expected to decline slowly. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal prices has increased cost support for the futures market. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. Technically, the 05 contract of the rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products have continued to decline week - on - week. As the off - season approaches, pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Supply - Demand Situation - Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil increased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. Price and Spread Data - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. For example, the rebar steel main contract price increased slightly, while the hot - rolled coil main contract price decreased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed, such as the rebar steel main basis decreased, while the hot - rolled coil main basis increased [2]. Production and Inventory Data - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills increased. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, except for the rebar steel mill inventory which increased slightly. The steel billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased [2]. Apparent Demand and Transaction Data - The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased slightly. The national construction steel trading volume and the wire and screw terminal procurement volume decreased [2]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore Market Environment - The Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the demand side is weakening as the off - season approaches, and the supply side has high global shipments and rising port inventories [4]. Price and Spread Data - Iron ore spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% index increased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed [5]. Supply - Related Data - The overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore arrival volume at northern six ports increased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The port inventory, port trade ore inventory, and the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills all increased [5]. Production Data - The iron concentrate powder output of 186 national sample mines decreased [5]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. Industry News - India has imposed a three - year import tariff on some steel products, with rates between 11% and 12%, aiming to prevent the influx of low - cost Chinese steel [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 246.21 tons compared to last Monday. The port inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 122.5 tons, reaching the lowest level in the fourth quarter of this year [7]. - According to the CISA, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage in December 2025 decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to November 2025, a decline of 3.6% [8]. - There are 36 coal mines in Anshun City, with a total designed production capacity of 1488 tons/year. The production status of these mines varies [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭价格预计短期高位运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] -氧化铝价格受政策刺激短期拉涨，电解铝价格冲高后承压明显，预计短期区间运行，关注宏观指引 [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [4] 铝锭 -供应端国内及印尼新投电解铝项目爬产，内蒙古某项目通电成功，日均产量预计继续增长 [4] -高价抑制下游提货需求，中原地区环保管控加码，部分铝加工企业停产，开工率下滑，上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比降0.6个百分点至60.8% [4] -分板块看，铝板带开工率降1个百分点至64.0%，铝箔开工率环比下调1.1个百分点至69.3%，短期内行业开工将延续弱势整理 [4] -周一国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存64.5万吨，相比上周四累库2.8万吨 [4] 氧化铝 -宏观情绪支撑，国内淡季来临，库存走势反复，氧化铝价格受政策刺激短期拉涨 [5] -多数氧化铝厂与电解铝企业已完成长单签订，需关注氧化铝企业减产动向 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Year-End Expectation Improvement, Alloy Continues to Rebound - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Analyst Information - The analyst is Peng Bohan from the Research and Consulting Department, with contact information: phone number 0371 - 58630083, email pengbh_qh@ccnew.com, professional certificate number F3076814, and investment consulting number Z0016415 [2] Core Views Silicon Iron - The main logic includes supply with a narrowing decline in production due to a rebound in the futures market; demand with a halt in the decline and a rebound in finished product output; inventory with a reduction in factory inventory; cost with a slight decline in semi - coke; and a weakening basis due to the futures market rebound. Recently, the continuous strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has improved the commodity sentiment. The alloy price has digested its weak supply - demand situation at a low level. With the New Year's steel procurement and winter storage expectations, it rebounded unexpectedly last week following the black series. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, but the industry is advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [4] Manganese Silicon - The main logic involves supply with a decline in production; demand with a narrowing decline in finished product output; inventory with continuous pressure on factory inventory; cost with firm manganese ore prices; and a repair of the futures discount. Similar to silicon iron, it also rebounded unexpectedly last week. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, and the industry is also advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Iron Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 9.85 tons (down 1.3% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year). The output in November 2025 was 47.11 tons (down 6.78% month - on - month and 7.71% year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 1.8 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and down 8.3% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [9] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 6.36 tons (down 2.4% week - on - week and 17.3% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.4 days (down 0.39 days month - on - month and up 0.39 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of raw materials such as electricity, semi - coke, anode, and oxidized iron scale were mostly stable, with a 3.75% decline in semi - coke in some regions. The silicon iron cost in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased by about 0.5%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 13% [14] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 11,882 (down 897 week - on - week and up 3,252 year - on - year). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon iron, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [19] Manganese Silicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 19.25 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week and down 3.8% year - on - year). The national silicon manganese output in November was 84.88 tons (down 7.3% month - on - month and up 3.1% year - on - year) [24] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 11.26 tons (up 0.22% week - on - week and down 8% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [26] Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 38.6 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and 200% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.52 days (down 0.3 days month - on - month and 0.3 days year - on - year) [29] Cost - The prices of electricity were stable. The prices of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the price of chemical coke in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.5%. The silicon manganese cost in different regions decreased by about 0.3 - 0.4%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 17% [36] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 23,277 (down 374 week - on - week and 39,257 year - on - year). The 03 basis in Inner Mongolia was 100 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [31] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon manganese, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [38]