美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，19位政策制定者中仅有少数支持本月降息，多数官员对特朗普贸易关 税可能带来的通胀压力表示担忧。尽管特朗普多次要求立即降息并呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，但会议 纪要表明决策者在降息问题上分歧明显。目前市场有关于鲍威尔可能被迫辞职的传言愈演愈烈。 【技术分析】 现货黄金(伦敦金)：从形态结构看,黄金近期低点不断抬高，沿着上涨趋势线不断震荡向上，走出标准上 涨趋势浪节奏。周五晚间多头再次强势发力突破关键压力位3345.0，进一步打开多头上涨空间，后市继 续看多头延续行情。综合MACD指标看，快慢线0轴上方运行，表明多头力量主导行情走势。 摘要7月14日亚市尾盘，贵金属市场呈现显著分化格局。现货黄金小幅攀升至3373.69美元/盎司上方维 持震荡，而现货白银则强势突破39美元/盎司关键位，刷新2011年9月以来逾12年高位，年内累计涨幅已 扩大至35%。市场聚焦即将公布的对俄政策声明，据白宫日程安排，特朗普将于今日就俄罗斯问题发 布"重要声明"，预计涉及新制裁措施。值得注意的是，尽管避险需求持续支撑贵金属估值，但技术面出 现微妙变化——黄金在3370美元附近承压明显，显示短期追高风险偏好下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct. - Affected by the warm short - term sentiment, it is expected that iron ore will operate at a high level [2][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: As of July 10, the price of the iron ore main contract I2509 rebounded this week, closing at 763.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 659,900 lots, an increase of 20,500 lots [6]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports rebounded overall. The price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 835 yuan/ton, while the prices of 62.5% BRBF, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba fines, and 56.5% Super Special fines increased by 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Among domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 750 yuan/ton, while the prices of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan and 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 9 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, with relatively small spread changes. For example, the spread between Karara fines and PB fines increased by 8 yuan/ton, the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread between BRBF and PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Futures - spot and futures inter - monthly spreads: This week, the main 2509 contract of iron ore had a premium of 13.5 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 19.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of July 4, the weekly shipment from Australia was 1.5852 million tons, and that from Brazil was 0.5789 million tons, with a total of 2.1641 million tons, a 13.6% decrease compared with the previous week. Overseas ore shipments have continuously declined from historical highs, and China's future iron ore supply will decrease significantly [22]. - Domestic mine capacity utilization rate: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of 126 domestic mines was 62.93%, a decrease of 1.57% compared with the previous week [23]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.47 US dollars, a decrease of 0.3 US dollars compared with the previous week, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 7.38 US dollars, an increase of 0.24 US dollars compared with the previous week [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of July 11, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly increased to 59.74%. However, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 83.15% compared with the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate also decreased by 0.39% to 89.9%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 10,400 tons to 239,810 tons this week, reaching the lowest level in 3 months, with the year - on - year increase remaining stable at 0.64%. Although the weekly hot metal output weakened, it was still at a high level in the same period, and steel mills maintained small - scale replenishment. The daily consumption of imported ores by the current sample steel mills was 298,490 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.08 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared with the previous week [25][28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Overseas ore arrivals from the previous rush continued to arrive, but the port operation efficiency was limited. The number of vessels waiting at ports increased by 11 to 103 this week, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Steel mills' enthusiasm for picking up goods remained strong. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 13.76589 million tons, a decrease of 112,510 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 14 months. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1951 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the number of vessels at ports was 99, an increase of 8. - This week, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills decreased by 23,200 tons to 298,490 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 3 months, but still higher year - on - year. Steel mills continued small - scale replenishment, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 61,070 tons to 8.97964 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 30.08 days, reaching a new high since May [29]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct [35].

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market has likely fully priced in policy expectations. In May 2025, both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were fully implemented, and with a 90 - day exemption for Sino - US tariff issues, Q2 economic data may be good. There is little possibility of the market trading monetary policy easing in the short term. Fiscal policy is adopting a "debt resolution + development" dual - wheel drive strategy, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will likely continue. For real estate policies, although comprehensive stimulus measures have been introduced, the key lies in the substantial recovery of consumer demand, and the policy transmission efficiency may be in the stage from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" [5][38]. - In 2025, an abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. Since 2025, the monetary policy's statement on liquidity has changed from "maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity" to "maintaining abundant liquidity". After correcting the bond market's over - reaction in Q1, the money market was relatively loose in Q2. The central bank ensured market liquidity through various measures during special periods. With the downward trend of bank - based fund lending last week, the central bank may use outright reverse repurchases to ease market liquidity next week [5][39]. - The supply shock in Q3 may be relatively controllable. The net financing rhythm of national debt in 2025 is faster than the same period. As of July 11, its net financing accounted for 56.66% of the whole year. Local debt supply may impact the market, and the new special bond issuance scale in Q3 may be large. However, due to the market's increased adaptability to supply shocks and the alleviation of the pumping effect by accelerated fiscal expenditures, fiscal supply may not be the core factor causing the bond market to weaken [5][40]. - In 2025, external interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has marginally weakened. Although the external environment is more complex, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the domestic market's pricing may become dull, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better than previous years [7][43]. - The traditional factors causing the "seasonal weakness" of the bond market in Q3 may have limited impact on the Q3 2025 bond market. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. With institutions like state - owned banks and rural commercial banks supporting the market and the possible decline of insurance companies'预定利率 in Q3, the bond market may show a trend of "easy to fall, hard to rise". But the downward space of long - term interest rates may need more factors to catalyze. The investment portfolio of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered for allocation, and the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds can be selected for trading [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Seasonal Weakness" of the Bond Market in Q3 - From 2021 - 2024, the bond market in Q3 showed intensified fluctuations. From 2021 - 2023, it presented a typical "V - shaped" trend, while in 2024, it had multiple staged rebounds in a downward trend [2][11]. - In 2021, the bond market in Q3 had a "first down, then up" pattern, affected by "RRR cut driving interest rates down → economic data and policy expectation correction → supply pressure disturbance" [2][12]. - In 2022, the core logic of the bond market's weakness in Q3 was "economic expectation improvement + marginal tightening of the money market + Fed's interest rate hikes" [2][19]. - In 2023, the bond market in Q3 was mainly affected by "exchange rate pressure + neutral liquidity + stabilization of the fundamentals", leading to increased volatility [2][29]. - In 2024, the core driving factor for the multiple staged rebounds of the bond market in Q3 was "policy expectation changes" [2][33]. 3.2 Traditional Factors May Have Limited Impact on Q3 2025 Bond Market - Market has fully priced in policy expectations. Monetary policy easing is unlikely to be traded in the short term. Fiscal and real estate policies are in a stage of effectiveness accumulation [5][38]. - An abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. The central bank will ensure market liquidity through various measures, and may use outright reverse repurchases next week [5][39]. - Supply shock in Q3 may be controllable. National debt net financing rhythm is faster, and local debt supply may impact the market, but overall, fiscal supply may not be the core factor for the bond market's weakness [5][40]. - External interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has weakened. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better [7][43]. 3.3 Important Matters - In June 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase year - on - year, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. PPI continued to decline year - on - year [44]. - The Ministry of Finance extended the assessment cycle of state - owned commercial insurance companies' performance indicators, adjusting the "net asset yield" assessment method [45]. 3.4 Money Market - Last week, the central bank's net open - market reverse repurchase operation was - 226.5 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature next week. The money market was relatively loose, with DR001 below the policy rate [46][47]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale last week. Except for rural commercial banks, other commercial banks were net lenders. The term spread between 1Y and 3M NCD issuance rates widened, and the 1Y state - owned bank NCD issuance rate reached around 1.6% [46][59]. 3.5 Bond Market - At the beginning of July, the issuance and net financing of national debt were stable, while local debt net financing was slow. New 20 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds will be issued next week [67]. - Last week, the bond market was in an adjustment stage under the stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bank bonds changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year national development bank bonds increased slightly [78]. - The liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active and sub - active bonds returned to 2 - 3BP. The term spread of 10 - 1 year treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spreads narrowed [81][85][88]. 3.6 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased but remained at around 8 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks and rural commercial banks increased their positions, while securities firms and funds reduced their positions [92][101]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was basically flat month - on - month and slightly increased year - on - year [92].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The successful breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points has injected confidence into the A-share market, opening up upward potential towards previous highs and optimistic targets [1][3] Technical Analysis - The next key resistance level is identified in the range of 3600-3674 points, which holds significant technical and psychological importance due to its status as a previous high during the "924" rally [3] - A sustained breakthrough above 3500 points, especially with a confirmation pullback, could attract trend traders and direct attention towards the next significant high of 3674 points [3][4] - The market may experience fluctuations and corrections above 3500 points, which is a common occurrence during such upward movements [6] Fundamental Factors - Positive mid-term factors supporting the challenge of previous highs include ongoing domestic economic recovery and a sustained loose fiscal and monetary policy to bolster this recovery [4] - Key economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index showed improvements, indicating a general expansion in economic activity [4] - Anticipated liquidity resonance in the second half of the year, particularly with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, could further enhance domestic monetary policy space [4] Market Sentiment and Risks - The path to challenge previous highs may not be smooth, with potential for significant selling pressure as the index approaches historical resistance levels [7] - Concerns regarding the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery persist, with monthly economic data potentially causing fluctuations in market sentiment [7] - External uncertainties, such as persistent inflation in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, could negatively impact global risk appetite and, consequently, the A-share market [8] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - The immediate target post-3500 points is 3674 points, which is seen as a feasible technical goal supported by market trends and policy backing [8] - Achieving the more challenging target of 4000 points will require stronger economic recovery, more substantial policy support, and favorable external conditions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicate a strong commitment to stabilizing the real estate market in China, leading to a significant rebound in real estate stocks [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The NDRC has announced measures allowing cities with population inflows to utilize ultra-long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to enhance the recovery of idle land and stock housing, thereby increasing the supply of affordable housing for migrant populations [1][6]. - The NDRC aims to achieve new urbanization goals by 2035, focusing on high-quality urbanization through major projects that support agricultural migration and urban development [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the NDRC's announcement, A-shares in the real estate sector experienced a strong rebound, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, and Hong Kong-listed property stocks saw even more significant gains, with some increasing by 30% [1]. - HSBC's report indicates that the recent rebound in the real estate sector is driven by a rapid reconstruction of market expectations regarding government policies, despite disappointing sales data [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - HSBC suggests that investors are beginning to position themselves ahead of the upcoming Politburo meeting, viewing it as a critical policy window [3]. - Morgan Stanley highlights that the central government's entry into real estate relief through special bonds will benefit real estate stocks in the short term, although the fundamental impact will depend on the execution of these policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, driven by strong demand from downstream steel companies and a rebound in spot prices due to active trading in the futures market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, coking coal futures saw a significant increase of 2.79%, reaching 884.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The average daily production of raw coal increased by 38,000 tons to 1.918 million tons, while the average daily production of premium coal rose by 26,000 tons to 765,000 tons, both hitting seven-week highs [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was reported at 85.5%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period [2]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in July due to the closure of the border during the Naadam Festival from July 10 to 17, which will further reduce imports of Mongolian coal [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends - In the Luliang market, the auction for low-sulfur coking coal saw a starting price of 1,040 yuan/ton, with a transaction average of 1,123 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 123 yuan/ton from the previous auction on June 25 [2]. - The overall sentiment in the spot market remains positive, with expectations of slight price increases in the futures market, contingent on potential regulatory changes in Shanxi province before September [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Industry Daily Report 2025-07-09 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract when it rises, and consider buying put options for protection recently [2]. - For glass, in the short term, it is advisable to go long on dips, while in the long - term, the thinking of going short on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1194 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1035 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 159 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,615,142 lots, down 78,753 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,526,305 lots, down 46,116 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is -391,471 lots, down 1,826 lots; glass top 20 net position is -386,664 lots, up 5,285 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3,736 tons, down 297 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 799 tons, down 3 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is -43 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is -97 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is -26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,168 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32%, down 0.89 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68%, up 0.68 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.78 million tons/year, up 0.1 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 222, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8481 million tons, up 38,600 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.085 million weight boxes, down 131,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 183.8514 million square meters, with an increase; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should aim to build an important energy and raw materials base at a high level and develop wind power, photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen energy and other energies to build a new energy system [2]. - US media reported that the US Treasury Secretary said that she plans to hold talks with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on issues such as Sino - US trade [2]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12 to 18 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Normalized Promotion Mechanism for Key Matters of 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'" [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on 14 countries, stating that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2].

Group 1 - The domestic medium and heavy plate market continues to experience fluctuations, with black futures increasing market caution and spot prices remaining stable, though some regions see slight declines [1][4] - The overall trading atmosphere is cautious due to weak terminal demand, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach [4][5] - The price of medium and heavy plates is trending downward, with the national average price for 20mm common plates at 3418 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5][6] Group 2 - Major steel mills are maintaining stable pricing strategies, with some adjustments in certain regions, while cost support is weakening due to fluctuating raw material prices [6][10] - The market focus is shifting towards policy expectations and demand release, with potential support for medium and heavy plate demand from increased infrastructure investment and manufacturing recovery [8][9] - The industry faces ongoing capacity expansion pressures, with an additional 5.1 million tons planned for the second half of the year, complicating the supply-demand balance [9][10]