Core Viewpoint - The company, 万国黄金集团, has seen a significant increase in its stock price, reaching a new high of 17.32 HKD, driven by favorable market conditions and positive earnings forecasts [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - 万国黄金集团's stock rose over 7%, reaching a peak of 17.32 HKD, marking a new high since its listing [2]. - As of the latest update, the stock is trading at 17.15 HKD with a trading volume of 2.22 billion HKD [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 fell below expectations, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The market is anticipating the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for January [2]. Group 3: Earnings Forecast - The company expects its profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 to be between 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 143% to 161% [2]. - Global investment firm, 环球富盛, predicts a substantial increase in the company's net profit for 2025, benefiting from rising gold prices [2]. Group 4: Project Developments - The company is advancing its金岭矿 expansion project and has signed a subscription agreement with 金山矿业 to accelerate the development of the金岭 project [2]. - The daily production capacity of the金岭矿 is continuously improving [2].

Group 1 - The silver market is heading towards a structural shortfall for the sixth consecutive year, with a projected gap of 67 million ounces by 2026 [1] - Industrial silver processing is expected to decline by 2% to 650 million ounces, influenced by reduced usage in the solar photovoltaic sector and trends of direct substitution [1] - Jewelry demand is forecasted to drop for the second consecutive year, decreasing by 9% to 178 million ounces, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] Group 2 - Global silver supply is anticipated to grow by 1.5% to reach a ten-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, with mine production increasing by 1% to 820 million ounces and recycling volume rising by 7% to exceed 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012 [1] - The recent decline in gold and silver futures is attributed to profit-taking ahead of the delayed January employment report, with potential weak data possibly increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which could support precious metal prices [1] - Silver ETF outflows have made silver susceptible to short-term volatility, but the current supply shortage indicates a potential recovery in the coming months [2]

摘要今日周三(2月11日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1121.48元/克，较前一交易日上涨5.02元，涨幅 0.46%，日内呈现上扬走势。当日开盘价报1116.33元/克，盘中最高触及1124.51元/克，最低下探至 1116.08元/克。 昨日公布的数据显示，美国12月消费者支出意外陷入停滞，凸显出民众对生活成本的担忧，也为周三即 将重磅出炉的1月延迟就业报告埋下伏笔。若借贷成本进一步下调，黄金作为无息资产，将在低利率环 境中迎来利好。 1月下旬，该贵金属曾一路冲高刷新历史纪录，而后大幅回调，如今金价已收复近半失地，本周始终围 绕每盎司5000美元震荡运行。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 从技术面来看，日线周期，H4周期的上涨都没有走完，都需要一波刺激才能走出有效的上涨，特别是 H4周期的表现，k线收在布林中轨之上，等待突破5100后布林上轨开口，到时候就有明显的单边技术表 现，所以，今天依旧做低多的布局，等待延续空间。今天的行情主要集中在美盘非农数据后了，亚欧盘 的机会可能5000之上，前面的布局保持不变，亚欧盘破位5100，美盘就可以放心持有再看数据影响，上 方逐步看5200，5350。 今日周三(2月1 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 二、图表分析 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉下降 0.03%，报收 61.59 分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.27%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 14655 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 432 手至 70 万手。国际市场方面，宏观层 面仍有扰动，美国 12 月零售数据公布，低于市场预期，3 月降息预期小幅升温。 | | | | 国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约冲高回落，持仓小幅下降。消息面，昨日中国棉花 | | | 棉花 | 信息网发布意向种植面积调研报告，2026 年我国棉花一项种植面积同比下降 1.7%， | 震荡 | | | 全国棉花产量预计同比下降 5.8%。整体来看，我们认为节前郑棉上行驱动有限。 | | | | 随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下 | | | | 近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时间与空间均有限，市场成交转淡。综合来看， | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight pullback after two consecutive days of gains, closing at $5025.21 per ounce, down $32.68, with a decline of nearly 0.7%, while still maintaining above the psychological level of $5000 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for February, which is expected to provide insights into the labor market's resilience or potential softening, influencing Federal Reserve policy direction [1][2] - The consensus forecast for January's non-farm payrolls is an addition of 70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4% [2] - Recent retail sales data for December showed unexpected stagnation, raising concerns about consumer spending and economic growth, thereby strengthening expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices are fluctuating within the range of $5000 to $5100 per ounce, with traders awaiting new catalysts to break through this range [3] - If gold prices surpass $5100 per ounce, there is potential for further increases towards $5200 per ounce, and possibly reaching the January 30 high of $5451 per ounce, and approaching the historical high near $5600 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below $5000 per ounce, they may test the 20-day simple moving average at $4910 per ounce, with further declines potentially targeting $4800 per ounce and the February 2 low of $4402 per ounce [3] Group 3: Market Influences - Support for gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts, alongside the psychological support at the $5000 level [2] - The dollar index remained stable at 96.87, indicating a lack of significant movement in the currency market [2] - There has been a notable influx of investment into gold ETFs from Indian investors, surpassing flows into stock funds for the first time [2]

值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018～2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收 益，有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源：基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国 债ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年～2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 降息预期催化，债市或将震荡偏强，资金抢筹债市，资金面看，十年国债ETF（511260）近5日净流入 超2.4亿元。 金融 ...

金融期货早评 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 宏观：人民币汇率升至 6.90 【市场资讯】1）央行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告：继续实施好适度宽松 的货币政策。2）芝商所：计划于今年夏季开始推出个股期货。3）日本政府将于 2 月 18 日召开特别国会，举行首相指名选举。4）ADP 报告：截至 1 月 24 日的四周内，美国私营 部门就业人数平均每周增长 6500 人。5）美国 12 月零售销售月率录得 0%，低于预测中值 0.4%，前值 0.60%。6）美联储——①哈玛克：经济前景向好，通胀仍然偏高，今年无迫切 降息必要。②洛根：对当前利率政策的效果持"谨慎乐观"态度，更为担忧通胀问题。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前，国内宏观政策正以协同发力为核心导向，为经济发展保驾 护航。货币政策锚定宏观政策一致性，与财政政策形成深度协同，具体通过三重路径推进： 一是公开市场操作支持政府债券发行，二是"再贷款+财政贴息"优化资源配置，三是担保增 信分担风险成本，提升金融机构对企业的融资支持力度。同时，央行在货币政策执行报告 中重提引导短 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 101,730 yuan, with a continuous decrease in open interest, while London copper retreated to the lower end of 13,100 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral, with the upcoming US non-farm payroll report causing cautious market sentiment, compounded by the approaching Chinese New Year leading to reduced capital enthusiasm [5][17] - On the fundamental side, copper warehouse receipts increased by 8,811 tons to 165,900 tons, and LME copper inventories rose by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons, indicating a lack of upward momentum for copper prices in the short term [6][17] - The expected trading range for Shanghai copper futures is between 99,800 and 102,500 yuan per ton, with strategies suggesting to manage positions carefully before the holiday and consider long positions at lower prices [6][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The spot transactions for pure nickel are sluggish, with a decline in intermediate product ratios weakening the cost support for nickel sulfate, and downstream transactions are also quiet as the holiday approaches [18] - Demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, but domestic procurement is hindered by negative feedback within the industry chain [18] - The trading range for nickel futures is suggested to be between 130,000 and 145,000 yuan per ton, while stainless steel is expected to trade between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan per ton [18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Overnight aluminum futures prices slightly retreated, while domestic alumina spot prices showed a small increase [20] - A northern alumina production enterprise has temporarily suspended part of its roasting and leaching capacity, potentially affecting 2 million tons of capacity, but this reduction is not expected to significantly alter the current oversupply situation [20] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is between 2,600 and 2,950 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to sell on rebounds [20] Group 4: Zinc Market - Shanghai zinc showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with macroeconomic indicators such as poor US retail data raising expectations for interest rate cuts, although market sentiment remains cautious [22] - The processing fees for zinc are expected to see a slight increase in February, while smelters are reducing production ahead of the holiday [22] - The expected trading range for Shanghai zinc futures is between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to remain observant [22] Group 5: Lead Market - Shanghai lead showed strong fluctuations overnight, with tight supply of lead concentrate and reduced production from smelters ahead of the holiday [23] - The overall supply and demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventory levels as downstream purchasing slows down [23] - The expected trading range for Shanghai lead futures is between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [23] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight declines due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which suppressed rate cut expectations [25] - Despite the pressure from the Fed's stance, signals of a weakening US economy and geopolitical tensions provide some support for precious metal prices [25] - The expected trading ranges for precious metals are: gold between 1,080 and 1,160 yuan per gram, silver between 19,000 and 22,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum between 520 and 570 yuan per gram, and palladium between 410 and 460 yuan per gram [25]

Group 1: PX Industry - The PX industry in China has seen a load increase of 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply outlook [4][20] - Demand for PX is expected to be suppressed due to numerous planned maintenance activities in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a shift towards a loose supply-demand balance in February and March [4][20] - The Brent crude oil price has seen a slight increase due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [4][20] Group 2: PTA Industry - The PTA industry load has increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains below historical levels, with supply expected to stay low due to maintenance plans exceeding last year's levels [5][21] - The demand side is weakening as terminal operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are entering a pre-holiday mode, with operating rates expected to drop to annual lows [5][21] - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 5000-5100 [5][21] Group 3: EG Industry - The ethylene glycol (EG) industry load has increased by 1.7 percentage points to 76.1%, but the market is facing a decline in import volumes due to maintenance in North American and Middle Eastern facilities [7][23] - The current price levels are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, and the market is expected to face significant inventory pressure in February [7][23] - A potential buying opportunity may arise when prices reach the support range of 3650-3750 [7][23] Group 4: PF Industry - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load has decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 91.2%, while the demand remains weak as downstream yarn enterprises begin to shut down for the holiday [8][24] - The PF price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 6400-6500 [8][24] Group 5: PR Industry - The bottle-grade PET industry load remains stable at 66.1%, with ongoing production cuts leading to a tightening supply and strengthening basis [11][27] - The demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with expectations for limited production recovery in February [11][27] - The PR price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 6000-6100 [11][27] Group 6: Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures have seen a slight decline, with the market sentiment weakening due to increased supply and slight demand drop [12][28] - Recent production levels remain high, contributing to supply pressure, while downstream demand has slightly decreased [12][28] - The soda ash price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate around the 1160-1190 range [12][28] Group 7: Glass Industry - The glass industry has experienced a slight decline in futures prices, with supply pressures easing but demand remaining weak [30] - Recent production levels have decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, indicating a need for further market adjustments [30] - The glass price is expected to fluctuate as supply decreases and production lines undergo maintenance [30] Group 8: Polyolefins Industry - Polyolefins have shown wide fluctuations, with LLDPE and PP contracts experiencing slight increases [31] - The market is facing high supply levels, but demand is transitioning into a seasonal lull [31] - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-7100 for L2605 and 6500-6900 for PP2605 [31]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, influenced by mixed economic signals from the U.S. and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [1][5]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $5058.44 per ounce, fluctuated to a high of $5078.39, and closed at $5025.33, marking a daily decline of $33.11 or 0.65% [3][5]. - The trading range for the day was $91.11, indicating significant volatility [3]. Market Expectations - The market is anticipating the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January, with expectations leaning towards a figure higher than the previous value, which could negatively impact gold prices [5]. - Despite potential negative impacts from employment data, recent lower ADP and jobless claims data suggest that non-farm payrolls may come in below expectations, which could support gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook, having rebounded after touching support levels, suggesting a continuation of the new bull market [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has returned above the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating a potential for further strength in the market [9]. - Daily charts reveal that while the upward momentum is weakening, gold remains above key support levels, indicating that bullish sentiment still prevails [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are identified at $4970 and $4870, while resistance levels are at $5100 and $5170 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $79.15 and $78.55, with resistance at $84.00 and $86.70 [10].