1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market faced pressure and pulled back. The Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 fell 0.62% to 1140.80 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver main contract 2606 fell 5.56% to 21740 yuan/kilogram. The recent strong performance of the US dollar has suppressed the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets. The market's expectation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve has also put pressure on the precious metals market. The escalating situation between the US and Iran has kept market risk - aversion high. The US labor market shows stronger - than - expected resilience, and rising global energy prices have reignited inflation concerns. The expected hawkish policy has led to a decline in the probability of two interest rate cuts this year to 50%. In the short term, tightened market liquidity may increase the selling pressure on the precious metals market, but such impacts are usually short - lived. If the US - Iran tension continues to escalate, it may stimulate the upward momentum of gold. In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening global geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credibility remains unchanged, and gold's appeal as a preferred hedging asset still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips and control risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - The precious metals market was under pressure this week. The Shanghai Gold main 2604 contract fell 0.62% and the Shanghai Silver main 2606 contract fell 5.56%. The strong US dollar, hawkish Fed expectations, the tense US - Iran situation, and strong US labor market data all affected the market. It is expected that short - term liquidity tightening may increase selling pressure, but the long - term attractiveness of gold as a hedge remains. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Affected by the strong US dollar, weakening interest rate cut expectations, and profit - taking, the precious metals market declined. The Shanghai Gold main 2604 contract was at 1140.60 yuan/gram with a 0.62% weekly decline, and the Shanghai Silver main 2606 contract was at 21740 yuan/kilogram with a 5.56% weekly decline. Gold and silver ETFs had a small net outflow. COMEX gold and silver net positions decreased, with silver's net position dropping by 7.26%. The basis of Shanghai Gold weakened week - on - week, while that of Shanghai Silver strengthened. The internal - external price difference of gold widened, and that of silver narrowed. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory had a large outflow. The gold - silver ratio rebounded [7][12][13]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry Situation - As of December 2025, China's silver and silver ore imports increased significantly, with silver imports up 27.03% and silver ore and concentrate imports up 32.29%. Due to the growing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, with a 12.9% year - on - year growth in December 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.3.2 Gold Supply and Demand Situation - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with a total value of $555 billion. Investment demand increased to 2175 tons, and the net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons, providing strong support for gold prices [44][46]. 3.3.3 Silver Supply and Demand Situation - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly. It is predicted that global silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1050 million ounces, demand will decrease by 4% to about 1120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% reduction [47][49]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options 3.4.1 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread continued to narrow, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price rose. Emerging economies' central banks continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [50][54][58].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. On the one hand, due to the persistent issue of insufficient effective domestic demand in the macro - economy, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, and there are still expectations for future interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the policy is mainly focused on structural easing, and the possibility of an overall interest rate cut in the short term is low. As the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis is gradually digested by the market, the unilateral driving force for Treasury bond futures is weak. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On March 6th, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a tender volume of 44.8 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 44.8 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan for the day [5] Related Charts - The report includes the trends of TL2606, TF2606, TS2606, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - On March 5, platinum and palladium prices continued to fluctuate. The PT2606 contract closed up 0.63% to 563.95 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 0.91% to 428 yuan/gram. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, energy price increases, inflation concerns, and a stronger US dollar pressured platinum and palladium prices. However, geopolitical risks eased due to statements from the Iranian military and deputy foreign minister, leading to a price rebound. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects the global platinum market to have a supply deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with a deficit of 240,000 ounces, an upward revision from before but much lower than the 2025 deficit. The supply-demand imbalance may support platinum prices, but the narrowing deficit and exemptions for key mines may limit the upside. Palladium has a weaker fundamental outlook and is expected to underperform platinum. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After market sentiment is digested, investors can consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalog Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The platinum futures main contract closed at 563.95 yuan/gram with a 0.08% increase from the previous value; the palladium futures main contract closed at 428 yuan/gram. The spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 600 yuan/gram with a -1.34% change, and the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 400 yuan/gram with a -0.35% change [5]. - **International Prices**: London spot platinum was at 2169.6 dollars with a 1.10% increase; London spot palladium was at 1670.34 dollars with a -1.37% change. NYMEX platinum was at 2150.4 dollars with a 1.03% change, and NYMEX palladium was at 1689.5 dollars [5]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - to - palladium ratio was 1.2990, and the London spot platinum - to - palladium ratio was 1.2671. The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum was 20.02 yuan/gram with an -18.53% change, and the spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum was 19.27 yuan/gram with a -17.90% change [5]. Inventory and Position Information - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 202,181 ounces with a 0.00% change, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 587,159 ounces with a 0.00% change [5]. - **Position**: NYMEX total platinum position decreased by 4.42% to 69,291, and non - commercial net long platinum position increased by 7.23% to 13,240. NYMEX total palladium position decreased by 2.18% to 16,423, and non - commercial net long palladium position decreased by 34.96% to 492 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market supply of various commodities is in a state of change, with some increasing and some decreasing, and the demand side also shows different trends. The prices of commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation, showing different trends such as shock, rise, and fall [1][3][5] Summary by Commodity Short - fiber - This cycle, China's polyester staple fiber production was 158,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons and a month - on - month increase of 8.81%. The average comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.05%, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. After the festival, some enterprises restarted, the market supply gradually increased, but the improvement of terminal foreign and domestic trade was limited, resulting in more cautious market buying, and the finished product inventory accumulated. The cost continued to rise, and the cost side recently promoted the price to be stronger [1] Gold - As of Wednesday, traders expected the probability that the Fed would keep the current interest rate range unchanged by December to be 25%, higher than 17% last Friday. Due to the continuous war in the Middle East, the market's expectation of continuous inflation increase strengthened, and the attitude towards interest rate cuts was relatively pessimistic. Gold had increased short - term downward pressure and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.23 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1469 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0328 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons. Recently, the iron ore supply - demand structure weakened month - on - month, and the price showed a shock pattern after rising and then falling [3] Coking Coal - The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 82.3%, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. The supply side was marginally loose, and the imported Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The demand side had support for the rigid demand of furnace materials, but the fundamental support was limited, and the disk was sorted out at a low level [4] Rebar - As of the week of March 5th, rebar production was 173,310 tons, an increase of 8,210 tons from last week, an increase of 4.97%. The supply - demand data was neutral. The terminal demand gradually recovered, but was still at a low level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East disturbed the market, and the cost of black commodities was boosted. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were still weak, and the disk was expected to be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term [5] Live Pigs - On March 5th, the national pig price was stable with a weak adjustment. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The downward space of live pig futures prices in the medium term was limited, the near - month contracts fluctuated at the bottom, and the far - month contracts fluctuated strongly, waiting for the cycle to reverse [6] Palm Oil - As of March 5th, the spot price of domestic palm oil had different changes. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased significantly in February, and Indonesia was expected to have a longer and more severe drought after April, threatening palm production. The short - term fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil strengthened, and the price was easy to rise but difficult to fall [6][7] Soybean Meal - As of March 5th, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices rose and fell. The lower support of the soybean meal 05 contract was strong, but the downstream feed enterprise inventory was sufficient, suppressing the short - term rise space. It was expected to fluctuate in a range with the price center of gravity moving up [7] Crude Oil - The oil market entered a stage of observing the substantial changes in the supply and demand of the crude oil market. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on Chinese commodities was weakening. High - position long orders should be moderately reduced, and light - position long orders should be continued to hold [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side of overseas production areas was gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream demand was not as expected. Technically, the recent capital reduced positions and the price fell. It was treated with a short - term bearish and medium - term shock mentality [9] Copper - The brass rod market showed a situation of "stagnation before the festival and slow recovery after the festival". The supply of refined copper in China remained high, and the spot circulation was abundant. After the Lantern Festival, the copper processing rate was expected to recover, but the terminal demand had not substantially recovered. The copper price was expected to maintain a shock [10][11] Cast Aluminum Alloy - On March 5th, the prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy in major regions generally rose. The supply of scrap aluminum was in short supply, and the cost support was strong. The demand side was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the overall transaction did not increase significantly. It followed the change of aluminum price [11] Nickel - Indonesia's RKAB quota target in 2026 was about 260 - 270 million tons, aiming to reduce the global nickel market surplus. The pricing reform was expected to raise the cost center of nickel ore. The supply was expected to tighten, but the demand was weak. The nickel price was expected to maintain a range - shock pattern [12] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang rose. The port inventory was basically stable, and some downstream enterprises resumed work after the festival. The safety risk in Iran led to an increase in device shutdowns. The port inventory was high and stable, and the demand recovered. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China was stable. The production decreased month - on - month, and the inventory increased. The float glass inventory increased, and the downstream processing plant resumed work slowly. The domestic soda ash market was stable, and the supply was loose. It was expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [14] PVC - The price of PVC in East China rose. The upstream supply was abundant, and some downstream enterprises resumed work and purchased at low prices. The industry inventory might continue to accumulate, and the market price was expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [16] Thirty - year Treasury Bonds - During the Two Sessions, there might be fewer incremental policies, and the bond market would mainly fluctuate. It was expected to show a triangular shock convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [16] Silver - US economic data showed certain resilience, but the increase in inflation expectations suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the war suppressed risk appetite, which was bearish for silver. The downward momentum of silver increased, and it fluctuated passively following gold, and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.61% to 47,954.74 points, marking a loss of 784.67 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.56%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.26% [2][5] - European indices also closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.61%, France's CAC40 down 1.49%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 1.45% [2] Oil Prices - International oil prices surged, with US crude oil futures rising 5.66% to $78.875 per barrel, reaching a peak of $82.15 during the day [7] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.57%, closing at $84.31 per barrel, with an intraday high of $86.28 [10] - UBS predicts that attacks on regional energy facilities could push Brent crude above $90 per barrel, and if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, prices could exceed $100 per barrel [9] Technology and Financial Sector - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia up 0.16%, Microsoft rising over 1%, while Tesla, Google, and Apple saw declines [5] - The banking sector faced significant losses, with JPMorgan down 1.95%, Citigroup and Wells Fargo down over 2%, and Goldman Sachs down over 3% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US generally fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.43%. Notable declines included Alibaba, NIO, and Tencent Music, while a few companies like XPeng and Vipshop saw slight gains [5] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.81% to $5,093.30 per ounce, and silver futures down 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce [12] - The rise in the US dollar index and strong economic data have led to a shift of some safe-haven funds from gold to the dollar, impacting gold prices negatively [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of hawkish policies has caused the expectation of interest rate cuts to decline again, and the probability of two interest rate cuts within the year is expected to have dropped to 50% [2]. - The 10Y - 2Y U.S. Treasury yield spread continues to converge, indicating that the market is still pricing in the strengthening of inflation expectations and the decline of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - In the short term, asset selling may lead to tight liquidity, but considering the strong uncertainty in the subsequent situation between the U.S. and Iran, it may continue to drive the safe - haven buying demand in the precious metals market [2]. - In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening U.S. dollar credit remains unchanged, and the attractiveness of gold as the preferred safe - haven hedging asset still exists [2]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 1152.000, down 1.1; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram) is 21639, down 215.00 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold (daily, lots) are 125,040.00, down 1379.00; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver (daily, lots) are 3,718.00, down 1688.00 [2]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 233,909.00, down 184589.00; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 412,712.00, down 70052.00 [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold (daily, kilograms) is 105033, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver (daily, kilograms) is 272,721, down 22102 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold spot price is 1149.61, down 3.57; the Huatong No. 1 silver spot price is 21,443.00, up 504.00 [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 2.39, down 2.51; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 196.00, up 719.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons) are 1081.04, down 18.00; the SLV Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons) are 15,947.57, down 33.81 [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 159177.00, down 738.00; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 22,260.00, down 1743.00 [2]. - The total gold supply (quarterly, tons) is 1302.80, down 0.19; the total silver supply (annually, tons) is 32,056.00, up 482.00 [2]. - The total gold demand (quarterly, tons) is 1345.32, up 79.57; the total silver demand (annually, tons) is 35,716.00, down 491.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The U.S. dollar index is 98.80, down 0.47; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield is 1.80, up 0.03 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 21.15, down 2.42; the CBOE gold volatility index is 36.48, down 2.29 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.33, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio is 59.33, down 2.59 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran may last for 8 weeks or longer, and NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the U.S. may adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week [2]. - U.S. President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [2]. - The U.S. ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding the expected 50,000. The previous value was revised from an increase of 22,000 to an increase of 11,000 [2]. - The U.S. ISM services PMI in February was 56.1, significantly rebounding from 53.8 in January, higher than the market - expected 53.5, and reaching the fastest expansion rate since August 2022 [2]. - According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by April is 12.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts is 0.3%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by June is 32.1% [2]. - The London gold and silver market fluctuated widely. London silver once plunged nearly 5% in the afternoon and then rebounded. The Shanghai Gold 2604 contract closed up 0.46% at 1152 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2606 contract closed up 1.96% at 21639 yuan/kilogram [2]. - Geopolitical factors such as the interruption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on multiple Gulf countries have boosted market risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - The external equity market stabilized and rebounded last night, the marginal impact of market liquidity shock eased, and the sentiment in the precious metals market improved [2]. - The U.S. ADP employment in February exceeded market expectations, the Fed's Beige Book showed that most regions' economies were growing moderately, and the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continued to be strong, posing strong upward resistance to gold prices [2]. - Rising energy prices have reignited market concerns about rising inflation [2]. - Fed Chairman nominee Warsh will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - U.S. January trade balance data at 20:30 on March 5 [2] - U.S. February Challenger job - cuts data at 20:30 on March 5 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The main market logic has shifted from the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the geopolitical crisis to macro - concerns about global inflation due to tight global energy supply. The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary and credit environments are expected to be loose, but interest rate cuts are likely to be structural policies, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. So, the upward momentum and downward space of bond futures are limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: weak; view reference: oscillation and consolidation; core logic: low possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation and consolidation. The market logic has changed, and the manufacturing PMI shows insufficient domestic demand. Future interest rate cuts are expected to be structural, and short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts are unlikely, resulting in limited movement of bond futures [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, focus on risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [11][13]. - For steel, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For iron ore, short - term high - level short positions can take profits, and long - term partial short positions can be held lightly. For double - coking, the price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines, downstream demand recovery, and international crude oil price fluctuations after the Spring Festival [15][16][18]. - For various non - ferrous metals and new materials, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, zinc is recommended to maintain a bearish view, and lead is recommended to hold short positions [24][27]. - For agricultural products, different varieties also have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to enter a volatile stage, sugar is recommended to be operated with a volatile mindset, and eggs are expected to have a limited increase in price in March [34][35][36]. - For energy and chemical products, the short - term trading of crude oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the price of fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation after continuous daily limit increases. Different chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol also have their own characteristics and trends [42][44][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th. The State Council Premier Li Qiang will deliver the "Government Work Report", and relevant personnel will interpret it [6]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [7]. - The South Korean stock market fell sharply, and the financial regulatory agency will start a 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if market fluctuations intensify [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO said that the company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be its last investment before the company goes public, and OpenAI is expected to start an IPO by the end of the year. The $10 billion investment in Anthropic may also be the last [8]. - Mediterranean Shipping Company will unload all goods bound for ports in the Gulf region at the nearest safe port and charge a mandatory surcharge of $800 per container. Maersk will temporarily stop accepting cargo bookings to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia [8]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [8]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025. The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and the PPI showed different changes [9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.69%. The market traded 2.39 trillion yuan throughout the day. The market's focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the oil and gas sector's volatility increased. The semiconductor sentiment weakened due to the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The official PMI was affected by seasonality and was weak, while the Hong Kong ratingdogPMI was strong. The continuous sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the bond market due to market risk - aversion sentiment [13]. Black Steel - The current order - receiving situation of steel is acceptable, but the inventory is high, especially for coils, which suppresses steel prices. The real - estate sales and new construction data are weak, and infrastructure projects have not started much. The downstream consumption of coils is acceptable, and the export and steel mills' orders are good. The supply side has low - level profits, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal fluctuates, and the overall steel price is expected to fluctuate. The recommended strategies include selling wide - straddle options and holding, taking profits on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term, and holding partial short positions in the long term [15][16]. Coal and Coke - The price of double - coking may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coal mines has recovered, and the demand from steel mills will increase. However, the recovery of terminal steel demand is uncertain, and there is still an expectation of price cuts for coke. The rise in international crude oil prices may support the price of double - coking [18]. Iron Alloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The current price is at a stage high, and there are negative impacts such as hedging pressure and production resumption pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions and try short positions at high prices [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The new production capacity of leading enterprises has made progress. For glass, the upstream price has loosened, and there are both cold - repair and ignition plans on the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see at present [22]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and Kevin Warsh may promote balance - sheet reduction, which will put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long term, the global copper - mine supply is tight, which will support the copper - price center [24]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and treat it with a volatile mindset [24]. Lead - The consumption of lead is gradually recovering, and the supply recovery is slower than the consumption end. It is recommended to hold short positions [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The short - term supply increases, and the demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is valued at a relatively low level, and previous long positions can be held. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][32]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to enter a volatile stage. The global cotton output is expected to decline, and the demand remains stable. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the actual consumption and orders of textile enterprises are the key to the market [34]. Sugar - The global sugar market has a supply surplus, but the surplus has been adjusted. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and there is a replenishment demand after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to operate with a volatile mindset [35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may stabilize, and there is an expectation of price increase in March, but the increase space is limited. The futures contracts in the second quarter are supported by the expectation of spot - price increase, but the premium over the spot is large, and the upside pressure is large [36]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly. The prices of high - quality products in the western region are rising, while those in the Shandong region are stable [38]. Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn price is strong in the spot market and fluctuates in the futures market. There is a certain stage pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [39]. Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The consumption after the Spring Festival is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable, and the domestic crude - oil price continues to rise sharply. Geopolitical factors are the main trading line in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a great impact on global crude - oil supply. The oil - price premium is relatively high, and the increase range is limited if there is no extreme conflict [42]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices on fuel oil under the influence of geopolitics. After continuous daily limit increases, it is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. The supply risk has not been eliminated [44]. Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the price of polyolefins. It is recommended to beware of the rebound risk and adopt a bullish mindset [45]. Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on dips, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices and high inventory. Partially take profits on the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [48]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which may affect the supply of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - volatile mindset, but beware of the callback caused by the shutdown of downstream MTO factories [49]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate widely. The spot price is relatively weak, and the futures price has insufficient upward drive and relatively high valuation [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. PVC - The short - term PVC may be bullish - volatile. The increase in oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and adopt a range - volatile mindset [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the long term [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply of LPG is abundant in the future, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. The high inventory pressure and the forced production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the focus. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under the support of the cost. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the commodity and macro - sentiment [58]. Urea - The futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to lay out short positions when the price rises [59].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is affected by multiple factors, including the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, domestic environmental protection policies, and downstream consumption recovery. The high - inflation expectation caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the strong rebound of the US dollar put pressure on non - ferrous metals. Although zinc is less directly affected, the expected supply disruption from Iranian zinc mines supports the tight zinc ore market. High inventory and weak demand suppress zinc prices, and the spot discount remains low. Future zinc price trends depend on the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the progress of domestic downstream resumption and inventory reduction [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Data**: For the Shanghai zinc futures, the 2603 contract opened at 24,470 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton with a decrease of 115 yuan and a decline rate of 0.47%, and the position decreased by 830 to 8,530. The 2604 contract (the main contract) opened at 24,375 yuan/ton, closed at 24,480 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.59%, with a position decrease of 8,042 to 87,434. The 2605 contract opened at 24,330 yuan/ton, closed at 24,540 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.59%, and the position increased by 2,130 to 64,951 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Non - ferrous metals showed a mixed trend. The US - Iran conflict affected the Middle East aluminum supply chain, leading to production cuts and higher production costs, thus pushing up aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum and nickel rose due to capital inflows, while Shanghai tin led the decline. The high - inflation expectation caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade led to a significant drop in the expected interest rate cut in June, and the strong US dollar put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The supply situation of each metal led to differentiated trends. Zinc was less directly affected, but the expected supply disruption of Iranian zinc mines supported the tight zinc ore market. During the Two Sessions in China, environmental protection restrictions in North China tightened, downstream consumption recovered slowly, and social inventory was expected to continue to increase this week. High inventory and weak demand led to a low - level spot discount. The Shanghai market had a discount of 70 yuan to the 04 contract, the Tianjin market had a discount of 10 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market had a discount of 105 yuan to the 04 contract [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Quotation on March 4, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,365 - 24,620 yuan/ton, and double - swallow zinc was traded between 24,465 - 24,710 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,295 - 24,550 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket based on the SMM average price, and there was no quotation against the market [8]. - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,385 - 24,620 yuan/ton, with a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 24,360 - 24,670 yuan/ton, and Zijin zinc was traded between 24,400 - 24,670 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 24,310 - 24,560 yuan/ton. Zijin zinc offered a premium or discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huzinc was priced at 25,070 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingots offered a discount of 0 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the Tianjin market had a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 24,330 - 24,575 yuan/ton, with a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides four data charts: the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), and the LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM [11][12]