Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

1月4日，上周受降息预期和地缘风险推动，金价承接2025年末的强势惯性，一度交投于4500美元/盎司 上方的高位。然而，随着元旦假期结束，市场流动性恢复，前期积累了超过60%巨大年度涨幅的多头开 始集中获利了结。下周市场目前定价2026年将有两次降息。任何关于降息节奏、幅度，乃至美联储新任 主席人选的风声，都可能引发市场重估。此前因政府停摆而延迟发布的经济数据将陆续公布，可能重塑 市场对经济状况和通胀路径的看法。 周六（1月3日）凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉发起了一场大规模的惊喜军事行动，这次行动代号为"绝对决心 行动"，并宣布成功抓获该国总统马杜罗及其夫人。美国司法部随后宣布将以多项罪名起诉马杜罗夫 妇，宣布临时接管国家！ 可以说，此次事件标志着全球地缘局势显著升级，可能加剧市场对更大范围冲突的忧虑，从而强化黄金 的避险属性，其"战争溢价"将凸显，对价格构成基础支撑。下周一开盘基本确定会暴涨拉升。后续更需 关注周末是否会有联合国安理会紧急会议、周边国家（如哥伦比亚、巴西）的反应、以及俄罗斯等大国 的表态，这些将决定危机是走向扩散还是逐渐平息。 若有所平息，"买预期，卖事实"会让金价大幅冲高回落，到时一旦开始下跌，可 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: 2026 New Year's Day Holiday Market Opening Forecast Report [2] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [3] - Research Institution: Green大华 Futures Research Institute [3] 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The stock index market is expected to have a good start on the first trading day after the New Year's Day holiday, with overseas capital accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets and funds expected to enter the market quickly. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - Precious metals are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [6]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, different varieties have different trends, such as the overall bearish trend of oils, the bottom - oscillating pattern of double - meal, the long - term bearish view of sugar and jujubes, and different support and resistance levels for other varieties [16][17][18][19]. - In the energy and chemical market, the long - term crude oil price may be under bearish pressure, while methanol, urea, bottle chips, and pure benzene are recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and the rubber system can be observed or a small number of BR call options can be held [34][35][36][37]. - In the steel market, it is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried; iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline, and short positions can be pre - arranged; for coking coal and coke, it is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently [55][56][57]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, regional supply shortages will push up copper prices to some extent; aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate around certain prices after the holiday [71][72][73][74]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index - On January 2, the Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.7% and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring 4%, indicating that overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Bullish on growth - style indexes represented by the CSI 500 index [7]. Treasury Bond - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations. The manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the situation. The treasury bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom on the last trading day before the holiday [5][10]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. The CME Group raised the margin for precious metals, and geopolitical risks have increased [6][13]. Agricultural and Livestock Three Oils and Two Meals - Oils: The short - term long positions held before the holiday should be closed, and the overall trend is bearish. Palm oil has a clear bearish trend, domestic soybean oil may be somewhat resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil should be operated bearishly intraday [16][22]. - Double - meal: Affected by factors such as tightened customs policies, the collapse of overseas soybean costs, and the pressure of a bumper harvest in South America, double - meal may decline to some extent but will be supported at the previous low, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [16]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar declined significantly during the holiday. Considering the supply pressure in the international sugar market, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to run weakly after the holiday [26]. - Jujubes: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is turning its attention to demand. The jujube futures price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the near future [26]. Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton: Affected by factors such as holiday trading volume and the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures declined. Considering the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices and its possible transmission to cotton prices, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current position, but the bottom support is strong [29]. - Apple: The overall trading in the apple market is dull, and the snow during the holiday has affected transportation. In the long term, the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate has not been resolved, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [29]. - Log: The supply pressure is controllable, the demand is weaker but better than the same period last year. The low inventory supports the price, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets and the cost limit the downward space. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and interval operations are recommended [29]. Corn, Pig, and Egg - Corn: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend during the holiday. The market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [31]. - Pig: The pig price weakened after the holiday. The near - month contracts are expected to open lower and then repair, and the contracts in the second half of next year may continue to oscillate [31][32]. - Egg: The egg price was stable during the holiday. The futures price is expected to open relatively stable, but the near - month contracts are expected to decline due to the pessimistic expectation of the spot price in February. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts [32]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US intervention in Venezuela's oil production may put downward pressure on long - term oil prices. Although the current geopolitical conflict has caused a certain risk premium, the impact will be diluted by the large supply surplus [34][41]. Methanol and Urea - Methanol: With the expectation of reduced supply and increased demand, the methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][44]. - Urea: The price of international fertilizers may rise due to the conflict, which may drive up China's export price. The domestic urea inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][46]. Bottle Chips and Pure Benzene - Bottle chips: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly following the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela [36][49]. - Pure benzene: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. The 03 contract reference range is 5420 - 5650 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela, the port arrival volume, and the future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [36][51]. Rubber System - It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of BR call options [37]. Steel Steel - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried [55][60]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline. Short positions can be pre - arranged, or a strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore can be tried. The price may be supported by factors such as the increase in daily hot metal production and the expected replenishment of steel mills [56][65]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of price cuts for coke may be implemented on January 1. The coke price mainly fluctuates with the coking coal price. It is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently, and attention should be paid to the main and far - month contracts of coking coal [57][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The regional supply shortage will push up the copper price to some extent. The market's expectation of a 75BP interest rate cut in 2026 is uncertain, which may increase the volatility of the copper price [71][77]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Caustic Soda - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate around 21,990 yuan/ton after the holiday. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion and overseas market transmission [72][80]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate around 3,246 yuan/ton after the holiday, and the policy support is limited [73][80]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend after the holiday, and the trend is likely to be linked to the sentiment of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain [74][79].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

尽管如此，美国经济依然保持韧性。上周数据显示其增速创下两年来最快，这使得近期进一步降息的必 要性变得复杂。美国经济数据发布将于周五晚些时候恢复，关注S&P Global美国制造业采购经理人指 数。 2026年首个交易日美国国债上涨，在创下五年来最佳年度回报后迎来良好开局。 10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.15%，扭转了早盘涨势。30年期国债收益率下跌1个基点至4.84%， 此前曾触及9月初以来最高水平。 尽管波动不断，2025年对美国国债而言仍是丰收之年，彭博美债指数全年回报率超过6%。衡量美国债 券市场预期波动性的指标也跌至2022年初以来最低水平。 当前焦点在于美债能否将这波涨势延续至2026年。市场普遍预期今年将进一步降息，尤其考虑到美国总 统唐纳德·特朗普可能任命一位鸽派人士接替美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 尽管波动不断，2025年对美国国债而言仍是丰收之年，彭博美债指数全年回报率超过6%。衡量美国债 券市场预期波动性的指标也跌至2022年初以来最低水平。 当前焦点在于美债能否将这波涨势延续至2026年。市场普遍预期今年将进一步降息，尤其考虑到美国总 统唐纳德·特朗普可能任命一位鸽派人士接替美联储主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential for further easing of interest rates is sustaining demand for non-yielding assets like gold, despite geopolitical risks and market caution [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Demand - The FOMC meeting indicated that most policymakers believe there is room for further easing if inflation slows, leading to lower interest rates [1]. - Lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding non-yielding assets, maintaining demand for gold [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to favor safe-haven assets such as gold [2]. - The sustainability of gold's price at record levels is questioned, especially in light of potential profit-taking and selling pressure [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Forecast - The CME Group's increase in margin requirements for gold may dampen speculative demand, adding to selling pressure [3]. - Gold is expected to remain supported as long as rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tensions persist [4]. - Short-term forecasts suggest gold may consolidate between $4,350 and $4,450, with buying interest above $4,300 and potential upward movement if it breaks above $4,400 [5].

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 彭博社指出，尽管交易员认为在美国进一步降息、美元走弱的背景下，贵金属在2026年可能表现良 好，但短期内也担心广泛的投资组合指数再平衡会对价格造成压力。 2. 鉴于金银已大幅上涨，它们在指数中的权重可能已超过目标配置比例，从而促使被动跟踪基金卖出部 分合约。 3. 道明证券(TD Securities)高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali在一份报告中写道：我们预计未来两周内， 纽约商品交易所白银市场未平仓合约总量的13%将被抛售，这将导致价格大幅下跌。" 由于包括日本和中国在内的多个主要市场仍在休市，周五交投可能较为清淡。 FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 黄金升至4350美元/盎司附近，显示多头仍占据主动，但该区域也更容易形成短线震荡与获利回吐。技 术上看，若金价能够在高位回踩后守住关键支撑区(可理解为近期上升通道下沿/前高密集区)，则中期趋 势仍偏多，后续关注是否出现"强势整理后再上攻"的形态。反之，一旦在再平衡抛压与美元反弹共振下 跌破关键支撑，金价可能进入"高位回撤—重新定价"阶段，短期波动区间将被显著拉宽。 点击输入图片描述（最多30字） ●今日关键指标（ ...

截至2日7:05，比特币价格反弹至8.86万美元，近24小时内涨超1%，带动以太坊、SOL、XRP等币种上涨，但比特币、以太坊交 易额接近腰斩。近24小时，全球超10.6万人被爆仓，爆仓金额1.21亿美元。 | 而种 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | 资金费率 | 24小时成交额 | 成交额(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | B BTC | $88539.4 | +1.01% | 0.0071% | $287.67亿 | -48.84% | | + ETH | $2994.63 | +0.69% | 0.0046% | $175.86亿 | -56.62% | | 를 SOL | $126.14 | +1.01% | 0.0052% | $61.08亿 | -39.17% | | X XRP | $1.8739 | +1.82% | 0.0053% | $23.35亿 | -27.63% | | 总爆仓 | | | | | | | 1小时爆仓 | | $1222.59万 | 4小时爆仓 | $2452.08万 | | | 念車 | | $49.0 ...

贵金属与工业金属：板块汇报和标的更新 20251230 摘要 白银市场短期面临回调风险，上调保证金可能引发价格下跌，但长期来 看，白银作为锚定黄金的投机产品，其估值和现货逻辑依然存在，预计 明年白银价格中枢在 16,000 元/千克。 黄金市场受央行和 ETF 投资资金共振影响，牛市有望延续至明年。稳定 币发行商对黄金购买量显著增加，成为继央行购金之后的重要力量，泰 达（Tether）的黄金储备已达到 104 吨。 黄金股表现滞后于商品价格，主要受降息预期影响。目前黄金股估值处 于低估状态，重点推荐中国黄金国际、山东黄金、中金黄金、紫金矿业、 招金矿业等公司。 预计 2026 年铜价将继续上涨，均价为 11,500 至 12,000 美元，高点 可能达到 13,000 至 15,000 美元，主要推动力包括降息和复苏预期、 铜矿供应不及预期以及交易层面的扰动。 五矿资源、紫金矿业和洛钼等公司将在 2026 年受益于铜价上涨，这些 公司产量增长显著，同时副产品白银的产量也较大。 Q&A 近期白银市场波动剧烈，原因是什么？未来白银价格走势如何？ 来持久买盘。 全球稳定币市场规模目前约为 3,000 亿美元，根据花 ...

在经历了多年的低迷表现后，英国的蓝筹股富时100指数有望在2025年超越全球主要市场。推动因素包 括对英国央行进一步降息的预期、金融和矿业板块的强劲表现，以及在全球波动时期该指数作为相对廉 价分散投资工具的吸引力。 该指数全年上涨超过21%，有望连续第五年实现年度上涨，并创下自2009年以来的最强年度表现。相比 之下，泛欧STOXX 600指数上涨了16.6%，美国标普500指数攀升了17.2%。 12月初，英国央行在一次势均力敌的投票中进行了年内第四次25个基点的降息，同时暗示本已渐进的宽 松步伐可能进一步放缓。 资源股权重较大的富时100指数从矿商弗雷斯尼洛(Fresnillo)、奋进矿业(Endeavour Mining)和安托法加斯 塔(Antofagasta)处获得支撑。这些公司受益于今年金、银和铜价格的飙升。相比之下，邦兹(Bunzl)和帝 亚吉欧(Diageo)均暴跌约37%，使这家商业用品分销商和全球最大的烈酒生产商成为该指数中表现最差 的成份股之一。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，在2025年的最后几个交易日中，英国富时100指数在创纪录高位附近徘徊， 有望在一个缩短的交易时段内，录得16年来最 ...